Baltimore Birds Nest

The O's handled everyone's development str...

2011-03-16T14:55:15.070-04:00

The O's handled everyone's development strangely in the those days. Look at Matt Riley (pitched in Baltimore at age 19 and not again until age 23), Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen... Sigh.

Well, said. If Bedard actually did say what McGreg...

2011-03-16T12:25:15.147-04:00

Well, said. If Bedard actually did say what McGregor said he did, looks like he was right anyway!

O's handled his development really strangely too. Although he had a history of injury, he only had 5.0 IP at AAA before he was promoted to the bigs. 5.

Another odd thing, he only appeared on Baseball America's Top 100 list once, #90 in 2002. And Andy MacPhail flipped him for 5 guys including Adam Jones and Chris Tillman. Not too shabby.

He didn't like the press, press didn't like him. However, I have heard no stories of the guy being rude to fans and his teammates have only had good things to say about him. The "bad attitude" rep is largely disseminated through the press, who definitely got that side of him.

Heath, I completely agree on all counts. Though I...

2010-11-08T15:48:23.523-05:00

Heath, I completely agree on all counts. Though I think that so long as they stay away from long term deals for relievers, I think $5 million, while rich, isn't egregious.

Glad to see you state that Uehara was worth his co...

2010-11-08T13:56:39.741-05:00

Glad to see you state that Uehara was worth his contract. The perception has been different and although I'm not crazy about paying a reliever $5 mil per, the Uehara experiment was a success overall.

"There's nothing new in there (it could h...

2010-10-13T09:10:38.117-04:00

"There's nothing new in there (it could have easily been written in 2005"

Or 2000. Or 1995. Only Coors has been able to do it successfully.

I couldn't agree more. This team was allegedly...

2010-10-04T01:19:11.240-04:00

I couldn't agree more. This team was allegedly built around defense so he fits the bill perfectly. His bat sure doesn't hurt either. Josh Bell clearly isn't ready. He has no grasp of the ML strike zone.

O's are 8-1 with Showalter and no posts????

2010-08-12T13:11:48.825-04:00

O's are 8-1 with Showalter and no posts????

I agree, Kyle. O's fans are definitely ready ...

2010-07-30T14:11:44.743-04:00

I agree, Kyle. O's fans are definitely ready for some classic Baltimore baseball!

According to Moneyball, Earl Weaver was ahead of h...

2010-07-30T12:15:37.608-04:00

According to Moneyball, Earl Weaver was ahead of his time. Baltimore baseball is a crying shame. It's almost to the point where we need to replace everyone including the players. Miguel Tejada well good riddance!

R-squared of 0.693

2010-06-24T12:10:02.663-04:00

R-squared of 0.693

What kind of R-square are we talking about here?

2010-06-24T10:35:28.344-04:00

What kind of R-square are we talking about here?

That makes perfect sense, and I think the 2004/200...

2010-06-23T14:53:18.898-04:00

That makes perfect sense, and I think the 2004/2005 time frame makes is spot on. The difference in the way guys like Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta have been handled is like night and day from the way the org treated Penn, Loewen and others. That's why I was confused; it seemed to me that there had been a noticeable shift in recent years and yet you were saying the org "still" used the Flanagan Plan.

Basically, he is thought around baseball as someon...

2010-06-23T14:29:48.270-04:00

Basically, he is thought around baseball as someone with a good perspective of pitching. When he took over the Orioles, his actions mainly came in the form of trying to unify the developmental system and put his mark on the pitching side of things. I'd say things started getting in order around him in about 2004/2005. As with any minor league system, it takes about 8 years to develop a strong system. That movement has been seen on the pitching side of things as we have several arms in the system and some choke points. That same movement has not been seen with respect to hitting.

nice... what is the t-statisTICK?

2010-06-21T19:23:01.689-04:00

nice... what is the t-statisTICK?

I see many typos. -Srikar

2010-06-21T17:19:51.709-04:00

I see many typos.
-Srikar

Well said. We don't give these guys enough kud...

2010-06-21T13:37:00.074-04:00

Well said. We don't give these guys enough kudos when they try...

I don't think that 88 mph report is useful one...

2010-06-15T12:49:15.252-04:00

I don't think that 88 mph report is useful one way or another by itself and I haven't seen any more details so it's kind of an odd thing to report without explanation. Guess we'll see over the next two weeks.

Thanks for stopping by, Heath. Why should we assu...

2010-06-15T09:03:04.042-04:00

Thanks for stopping by, Heath.

Why should we assume Gonzalez isn't throwing at full speed? Obviously, he doesn't have the adrenaline factor in extended spring training, but the Orioles made a pretty big deal about wanting to see his velocity come back.

It is true that his velocity has fluctuated, and his Oct 1 outing saw 3 fastballs about 89.5 mph and 2 between 92 and 93 (and even higher on Sept 27). I simply tried to pull an early season outing where he pitched well, one mid-season outing, and then one close to the end of the season when he hadn't pitched the day before. I had no idea the trend was there; I just wanted to see if 88 mph was within his historical velocity readings. My point was that the trend was not favorable, and it only served to further illustrate the questionable decision making process that would lead a team to spend so much guaranteed money on a relief pitcher.

Regardless, if 88 mph is his current velocity level, I don't see how he can be successful.

1) We're assuming that Gonzalez is throwing fu...

2010-06-15T08:41:11.462-04:00

1) We're assuming that Gonzalez is throwing full speed with that 88 reading. That is doubtful at this point.

2) Gonzalez speed fluctuated a few mph throughout the year, that one particular reading does not mean an injury was coming. In fact, he was a bit faster during October starts...not much but a bit.

Not that I'm defending the signing, I'm a big believer in developing low-cost bullpen talent...

Without taking the time to look up the data (alway...

2010-04-01T13:24:01.574-04:00

Without taking the time to look up the data (always a good strategy), I'll bet that it's very difficult for a team to go markedly over 1,458 innings. At home, you'll always pitch nine innings (unless there is rain). On the road, though, you do so only if the home team is tied or losing (we'll ignore partial innings here). Since home teams win about 54% of the time, the average team is at a deficit of about 43 or 44 innings. That seems like an awful lot of extra innings.

How easy fans forget that if you are losing after ...

2010-04-01T10:45:13.597-04:00

How easy fans forget that if you are losing after your at-bat in the 9th inning on the road then you don't pitch in the 9th... The last time the Orioles pitched more than 1,458 innings was in 1997, which, oh by the way, was the last time they had a winning season.

Clearly the Orioles fans are either betting on winning some more games this year or...lots of extra innings, many losses coming in the bottom of the 9th, and a 163rd game tiebreaker to decide 4th place in the AL East (do they have that yet?).

Sure, it's always possible Tillman will be a 4...

2010-03-30T07:26:51.129-04:00

Sure, it's always possible Tillman will be a 4A guy. But keep in mind he won't turn 22 until mid-April. Had he gone to college, he'd just be getting ready for his first full season in professional baseball, likely in Frederick. There is no need to rush him.

Must say I am cynical given the recent history wit...

2010-03-30T06:29:22.127-04:00

Must say I am cynical given the recent history with young pitchers who bounce between AAA and the show. Tillman could be another 4A guy.

Solid analysis. Tillman will be fiiine.

2010-03-29T19:21:42.038-04:00

Solid analysis. Tillman will be fiiine.

It may seem strange right now, but if he matches h...

2010-03-04T13:09:04.825-05:00

It may seem strange right now, but if he matches his PECOTA weighted mean forecast (.295/.350/.509 with 24 home runs) it won't seem so far fetched six months from now. Take a look at his 2007 minor league numbers: .314/.382/.586 with 25 home runs in just 470 plate appearances. The power is definitely there. Let's hope it shows up for the 24-year old.