Baltimore Birds Nest

Prospects

2011-04-19T15:03:00.001-04:00

While the Orioles may not have any top-notch prospects in the upper levels of the minor leagues, it looks like Delmarva may have a number of solid talents this season. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus wrote about Jonathan Schoop today:

Jonathan Schoop, 3B, Orioles (Low-A Delmarva): 2-for-4, HR (2), R, RBI, K

"In a system very low on prospects, Schoop entered the year as the No. 6 prospect following an impressive showing in the Appy League, but he was slid from shortstop to third base (where his tools profile better) to accommodate 2010 first-round pick Manny Machado, and suddenly the Orioles have one of the more impressive left sides of an infield in Low-A. A 19-year-old native a Curacao, Schoop has good defensive fundamentals, a plus arm and burgeoning power, and is now hitting .326/.396/.605 in 11 games while become one of my better non-Top 101 sleepers of the early season."

Looks like I need to take a trip across the Bay Bridge this summer.

Outfield Defense

2011-04-11T21:54:00.000-04:00

This is an interesting piece by Howard Megdal on outfield defense in left and right field (HT: Rob Neyer) for the New Yorks Mets, and one that may also be applicable to the Orioles. Nick Markakis has a reputation among fans and the media as being excellent defensively, but I suspect most scouts (and certainly the defensive numbers) would say he has perhaps average range and a very good arm. Felix Pie may be the opposite in left field, while Luke Scott is a bit below average on both counts.

Neyer notes that if more balls are hit to left field than to right field (a right handed batter pull bias) then it stands to reason that left field defense would be more important than right field defense. That may well be true, but I'll suggest one more reason: left field is inherently more difficult than right field. In my experience, it is much easier to pick up the flight of a ball hit by a right handed hitter in right field than it is in left field (reverse that for left handed batters). With more right handed batters than left handers, this difference does suggest that the outfielder capable of getting better reads should play left field.

There are, of course, a few other issues that we might consider:
1) Who has a stronger arm? This is certainly important; throwing is more important in right field than in left.
2) Are there any ballpark specific factors that affect the decision? For instance, right field in Camden Yards, with its high wall, grounds crew viewing zone, and tricky corner, may be more difficult than left field.
3) How do the day's starting pitcher and opposing line-up project batted balls? Perhaps with left-hander on the mound against a right-handed heavy line-up a manager should place more emphasis on left field defense.

If Nick Markakis is one of your two corner outfielders, then it certainly makes sense to play him in right field; his arm is his most valuable defensive attribute. If, however, you're going to give Nick a day off and are trying to decide which corner should by manned by Luke Scott and which by Felix Pie, perhaps the counterintuitive but correct response would be to play Scott in right. Anyone have some data?

First Place!

2011-04-11T20:54:00.000-04:00

The Orioles got off to a 4-0 start and are an impressive 6-3 after facing the Rays, Tigers and Rangers to open the season. The ballpark has shown signs of life, and the Orioles are the talk of the town. So why am I not more excited? Because the fundamentals don't support the hot start. To wit:

The offense (all numbers coming in to games of 4/11, league ranks in parentheses):
Team OBP: .282 (12th)
Team SLG: .348 (10th)
Team Runs: 35 (9th)
RISP: .360/.424/.720

The Orioles offense has scored more runs than its OBP and SLG would suggest because they've compensated by doing an excellent job of driving in those few runners that do reach scoring position. Based on the team-wide .243 BAbip (.400 with RISP), I would expect a bit better performance in general but with less clutchiness and for this to be a roughly league average offense.

And the pitching:
Team K/9: 6.2 (10th)
Team BB/9: 3.6 (9th)
Team HR/9: 1.1 (9th)
Team Runs Allowed: 32 (4th)

Much like the offense, the pitching is outperforming its peripheral numbers. Why? A .234 BAbip allowed. I'm willing to bet that number finishes closer to .300 than .234 (above .267). The young staff absolutely has some upside to it, but the aggregate numbers don't suggest much staff-wide improvement yet. And before you say "But the defense is much improved!," the BAbip for the 1970 O's (with Brooks, Mark Belanger, Davey Johnson, Don Buford, Merv Rettenmund and Paul Blair) was .264.

I would like nothing more than to see this O's club make a run at contention, but so far, nothing has dissuaded me that this is still a .500 team with the same odd roster construction and personnel decisions we all scratched our heads over earlier this spring.

Nolan Reimold Goes to Norfolk

2011-03-29T16:00:00.000-04:00

One of this spring's most intriguing roster battles was over the 4th outfielder spot between Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. In reality, however, the decision was a no brainer: Pie, capable of playing center field and out of options, won the job over Reimold despite Nolan's much better offensive performance this spring. Reimold's fate was likely sealed the day Vlad inked his $8mm deal to wear the black and orange, cementing Luke Scott, Derek Lee, and Vlad into the LF, 1B, and DH slots for the Opening Day roster. This has been a point of contention for many observers that would prefer to see Reimold get his everyday at-bats in Baltimore instead of Norfolk. While I agree that signing Vlad was a poor decision by the organization, I'm not especially worried that Reimold will miss out on much valuable development time in 2011, for several reasons.

First, Nolan was pretty terrible last year. He hit .207/.282/.328 in 131 MLB plate appearances and .249/.364/.374 across 401 for the Tides. Of course, his poor performance may well have been due to lingering effects from his 2009 Achilles surgery; the solid plate discipline figures and lack of power are certainly consistent with that story. He has looked better in Spring Training this year, but nothing in his performance last year suggests he should have been handed a Major League job this spring.

Next, I fear that Nolan Reimold has become a bit overrated. In 2009, he hit .279/.365/.466 in 411 MLB plate appearances, good for a 118 wRC+ (wOBA+ adjusted for league and park). Among MLB leftfielders with at least 300 plate appearances, that was good for a tie for 18th. That's a nice line and guy you're happy to have in the lineup, but the bar for being an above average hitter in left or at first base is set really high. For 2011, ZiPS has Reimold projected for a 103 wRC+, well below average for the position. Even in 2009, Reimold was good for just 1.2 WAR in 104 games, or about 1.8 per 150 games. Given his minor league numbers, a repeat of his 2009 season is probably on the slightly optimistic side of likely. At 27, there's likely not much more development left; he is what he is.

Finally, as the 2010 Orioles showed, depth is a good thing for an organization to have. What are the chances that Luke Scott (128 games in 2009, 131 games in 2010), Vladimir Guerrero (100, 152), Adam Jones (119, 149) and Derek Lee (141, 148) all avoid the DL? I'm guessing they aren't very high. What if Luke Scott really struggles against lefties (.325 career OBP)? Do I think the Orioles should have signed Vlad? No. But given the very high level of uncertainty surrounding Reimold's abilities and health, bringing in another player for LF, 1B or DH was not at all unreasonable; unfortunately, that player should have been someone eminently able to be cut or sent to Norfolk if Reimold proved his health this spring.

Still, I think that if Reimold heads to Norfolk, proves he's healthy and has rekindled his power stroke, he won't be in AAA for long. Whether it's because of an injury in Baltimore, a desire to evaluate at the MLB level, or even if he just forces the club's hand, there are plenty of at-bats to go around. Days off, platoons, injuries; for left field, first base, and DH, there will be about 2,000 plate appearances this year, and they can be filled many different ways. I wouldn't be surprised if Nolan Reimold gets four or five hundred of them.

Arbitration and Free Agency

2011-03-28T20:30:00.000-04:00

First up, two definitions:

When is a player eligible for salary arbitration?
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

When is a player eligible for free agency?
A player with six or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next season is eligible to become a free agent.

In the 2011 season, there are 182 days (March 31 through September 28). For every day a player is on the active roster or disabled list, he accrues one day of service time; in any given season, a player cannot earn more than one year of service time. One full year of service is defined as 172 days, however, a player who is optioned to the minors for less than 20 days receives credit for a full year of service. This year, Day 20 is April 19. Zach Britton could pitch in Baltimore on April 20 and the Orioles would gain one extra year of club control before he is granted free agency. Since the O's are likely to control Britton's innings pretty tightly this year (he threw 153.1 last season), he'd likely be the 5th starter. Buck probably won't send his 5th starter to the mound until April 10, and then again on the 16th. The number five slot comes due again on Thursday, April 21, at which point Britton could pitch in the big leagues, having missed a mere two starts, and the O's will gain one extra season of control. I'm hoping to do the math sometime this week (been really busy), but that seems like a really great trade to me.

Erik Bedard

2011-03-15T21:16:00.000-04:00

I'm super late to this, but a few weeks ago, Heath (@DempseysArmy) and I got into a bit of a Twitter spat with Matt Gardner about Erik Bedard. Short story: Matt called Bedard lazy, we said he was hurt, but awesome. Matt responded with an allegation that Bedard told O's (I think) minor league pitching coach Scott McGregor that he would throw 100 pitches or 6 innings, whichever came first. I can't find any link to this, but that, of course doesn't mean it didn't happen (Matt obviously heard this from somewhere). Setting aside whether or not he actually said this, Bedard did not face this limitation in 2006 or 2007 (the two years he was mostly healthy and largely excellent). Those links above are to his game logs.

2006: 24 of 33 starts with more than 100 pitches, with five of 110 or more in June, July and August.
2007: 21 of 28 starts with more than 100 pitches (one with 120), including 105, 109, 112, 115, 114, 113, 104 and 116 in his final 8 starts of the season, after which he got hurt and didn't pitch again for the Orioles. In that last start, he allowed 5 walks, struck out just 3, and gave up 6 ER in only 6 innings. Was he hurt then?

Mr. Bedard certainly did not have a sterling reputation among the fans and the media; I have no idea what other players thought of him. Regardless of that reputation, though, when Bedard was healthy he took the ball and pitched. Perhaps so much for a 69-93 Orioles team in 2007 that he's thrown just 164 Major League inning since.

Five Reasons for Optimism

2011-03-04T12:43:00.000-05:00

I'm back! Just one more class to go in my MBA career, and then maybe I'll have a bit more time to devote to the blog on a regular basis.

Matt Vensel today posted "Five reasons for Orioles optimism in 2011". Spring is obviously the season for optimism, but these are some pretty pessimistic optimistic indicators. Running through Matt's reasons:

5. A lineup without holes: This is largely true, in so much as they now have 9 position players absolutely worthy of regular at-bats in the Major Leagues. Unfortunately, it's also a lineup without much upside. Take a look through the Camden Crazies projections for this season; lots of guys with about 2.0 WAR. And now look at the ages of those regulars:

Matt Wieters, 25; Derrek Lee, 35; Brian Roberts, 33; Mark Reynolds, 27; JJ Hardy, 28; Luke Scott, 33; Adam Jones, 25; Nick Markakis, 27; Vlad Guerrero, 36.

Aside from Adam Jones (1800 career plate appearances) and Matt Wieters (900 plate appearances), no one else will play this season at an age where we can reasonably expect an improvement on their established level of performance. While I do think we'll see better numbers from Matt Wieters, Adam Jones has enough plate appearances now that it is difficult to expect big steps forward. Frankly, looking at that lineup is kind of depressing if you want the Orioles to build any sort of sustainable legitimate playoff contender.

4. Vlad the Impaler: Daniel covers this one ably. And as even Matt points out, he only hit 9 homers after the break last year.

3. The relative health of Roberts: I thought this was a post about optimism? Brian has already missed time in camp this spring with a strained neck, and the health of a balky backed 33-year old middle infielder seems much more like it belongs on a "worries" list.

2. The most interesting manager in the world: I like Buck, I really do. But if you're banking on the manager to take your club from 66 wins to the promised land, I hope your down payment on playoff tickets is refundable.

1. The young starting rotation: This is one with which I largely agree. I'm driving the Brian Matusz bandwagon, and I still harbor optimism that Chris Tillman can figure things out if only the organization will leave him alone in the Majors for a few months. I think Arrieta and Bergesen are both the type of arms that good organizations should turn out regularly, and I'm tremendously excited for Zach Britton. Guthrie isn't young, but he's still cheap and has proven to be a very valuable innings muncher.

In conclusion, this is a team that can reasonably be expected to make a run at .500, which, considering the miserableness of the past few years, is certainly a step forward but hardly anything to get excited about. The young pitching, however, really does have some upside. If there are legitimate reasons for optimism, they are on the mound.

2011 Ticket Prices

2011-01-20T13:00:00.000-05:00

Despite setting a record low for attendance in 2010, the Orioles are raising ticket prices.

“We believe that the average increase of $3 per ticket is not going to negatively impact someone’s decision to buy, although we recognize no one ever wants to pay more for anything. We certainly understand that point,” Bader said.

Perhaps I should draw him a demand curve.

Kevin Gregg

2010-12-10T11:17:00.000-05:00

Jeff Zrebiec at The Sun has news today that the Orioles have a 2-year, $8-$10 million offer out to former Blue Jays closer Kevin Gregg. Jeff is wondering whether Gregg would "unseat" Koji as the closer if he signs. Leaving aside whether or not the O's should be throwing millions of dollars at free agent relievers (they shouldn't be), having Gregg close games might not actually be a bad idea. He's a Proven Closer (TM), though not a great pitcher (career 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9), meaning that the Orioles don't really want him pitching in the highest leverage situations. Moving Koji--and his great strikeout numbers--into potentially higher leverage situations with runners on base in the 7th and 8th, could be a better use of bullpen assets. I don't know if this is how MacPhail is approaching the situation, but if that's how it works out, we probably shouldn't complain too much.

2011 Roster

2010-12-08T14:58:00.001-05:00

At the risk of getting overly excited and jumping the gun, it appears that the O's may be getting close to trading for J.J. Hardy. If true, the Orioles will have gone a long way toward filling out their 2011 roster. Let's take a quick look at how things are shaping up.

CA: Matt Wieters
1B: open
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Felix Pie
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott

B: Nolan Reimold
B: Craig Tatum
B: Jake Fox
B: open (utility IF - Robert Andino/Cesar Izturis?)

SP: Brian Matusz
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Brad Bergesen
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Jake Arrieta

CL: Koji Uehara (rumored)
LRP: Mike Gonzalez
RRP: Jim Johnson
RRP: Jason Berken
RRP: Alfredo Simon
LRP: open
?RP: open

That leaves four open spots (assuming the O's come to terms with Koji): 1B, utility IF, another lefty for the bullpen, and one more bullpen arm. There appear to be lots of irons in the fire for 1B (maybe Derek Lee?), and utility IF won't be tough to fill, but what to do with the bullpen? My guess is the O's sign one of the many available righties and also bring back Mark Hendrickson. They could also bring in another veteran starter to provide some depth, perhaps shifting Tillman or Arrieta back to Norfolk (again) or to the bullpen for the time being. Either way, the 2011 roster looks close to being set. Not a contender, but that looks to me like a big improvement over what was on the field for most of 2010.

Beer at the Ballpark

2010-12-01T13:33:00.000-05:00

It looks like Delaware North, the new concessions company for Oriole Park at Camden Yards, is taking a food tour of Baltimore today. The Orioles (@BirdlandInsider) and Delaware North officials (@BallparkRick) are tweeting about. If you're a beer fan, be sure to let them know we want good craft beer at the Yard in 2011.

Adam Dunn

2010-11-08T15:06:00.000-05:00

Blogfight!

The Orioles need a first baseman. This is obvious. In 2010, the six players that donned a mitt combined for an amazingly low -1.1 fWAR. From Adam Dunn to Xavier Nady, there's a veritable alphabet soup that the Orioles could target to provide an easy three win (or more) upgrade over this year's club.

One option with which I am not enamored is Adam Dunn; certainly, I don't think the Orioles should offer 4-years and $15 million per season for him. There are a few reasons that I think Adam Dunn is a bad choice, some recounted ably by Dave Cameron:

1) He will cost the O's their second round draft pick.
2) There are lots of other, cheaper options for first base.
3) He's been worth $15 million or more exactly once in the past six seasons.
4) His "old player" skills and body type make me think he's susceptible to rapid decline.
5) His 2010 season showed a decline in walk rate and a rise in his strikeout rate, which combined for a very large increase in his K/BB ratio.

I think it goes without saying that Dunn's value lies entirely in his bat. At the very best, he's an average defender at first base (both Fangraphs and B-Ref have him as a -3 defender in 2010), and he's not going to provide any value on the bases (his last stolen base came in 2008). Historically, though, his bat has been a good one, driven by prodigious power and a keen batting eye.

From 2001 to 2009 he posted an aggregate line of .249/.383/.520 built on a .292 BABIP, 26.5% strikeout rate and 16.9% walk rate (1.57 K/BB ratio). His 2010 line, .260/.356/.536, doesn't look out of line at all with his career performance, but his ratios diverged significantly. His BABIP rose to .329, he struck out 30.7% of the time (previous high: 28.6% in 2004), and he walked in just 11.9% of his plate appearances (previous non-rookie half-season low: 15.8% in 2003). He had never before posted a K/BB ratio above 2.0. This season it spiked to 2.58. As Keith Law notes, he also saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career in 2010. His batting eye clearly regressed in 2010; how much longer will the power last? Yes, Dunn has been durable and healthy, but that question makes me extremely hesitant to offer anything longer than a three year deal.

All told Dunn was worth about 30 batting runs last season, right in line with his average from the past six seasons. Subtract 10 for a positional adjustment, add 20 for replacement level, and assume 0 for his defensive abilities, and Dunn is a 4.0 win player. At $4m per win, that suggests he could get about $16m for a one year contract in 2011. I suspect that most teams, though, aren't going to value him as an average defender (knock off $4.0m), and a long-term deal may well come with a slight discount (knock off another $1m), right in line with the Fangraphs crowdsource (which has Dunn priced at 3/$12.5m) and Dave Cameron (who guesstimates 3/$11m).

I can accept that an offer of $15m per season may be what it takes to convince Dunn to come to the American League, but, for me, 4/$15m is just too rich a deal for a 31-year old bat-only player coming off a season where he showed some early signs of aging in the weaker league. This Orioles club isn't yet ready to contend, and if it is, it will be because the pitching takes a huge leap forward. If that happens, by all means, trade for someone like Adam Dunn. Right now, though, the money would be better spent targeting a cheaper option at first base and spending the balance on some more hitting prospects, including the one the O's could take in the 2nd round of a very deep 2011 draft class. First base shouldn't require an imperfect, expensive fix.

Top 10 Prospects

2010-11-01T13:59:00.000-04:00

Baseball America is first out of the gate with their Top 10 O's Prospects list. Check it out.

Elias Rankings

2010-10-29T10:54:00.000-04:00

Those antiquated, head-scratching Elias Free Agent Rankings that will drive the market for many a veteran this off-season are out over at mlbtraderumors.com, and the Orioles have two players on the list, Koji Uehara and Kevin Millwood. Should the O's offer either of these Type B free agents arbitration?

In this discussion, it's important to remember that a Type B free offered arbitration nets the player's former club a supplemental compensation draft pick but does not cost the signing club it's own pick. Thus, unlike Type A players who come with a cost over and above the contract dollars for which they sign (a surrendered draft pick), Type B players that are offered arbitration won't see reduced demand for their services. With the technicalities out of the way, let's analyze the situations for both Koji and Millwood.

Koji Uehara: 2 year/$10 million contract expired

2010 stats: 44.0 IP, 11.25 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 2.40 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR

2009 stats: 66.2 IP, 6.48 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 3.56 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 1.7 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR

Despite pitching barely 110 innings over two seasons, Koji earned his $10 million keep, returning 2.5-3.0 WAR (depending on your methodology). He was especially good out of the bullpen this season, proving an effective closer for the final two months of the season. Most impressive (other than his sideburns, of course)? His walk rates. He didn't walk a single batter after August 4, a span of 26.1 IP. And, oh, yeah: he struck out 35 during that time. His overall numbers weren't BABIP aided, and both his FIP and xFIP back up the notion that he can be an excellent reliever. Now, I am far from an expert on arbitration awards, but he only had 13 saves and made $5 million in 2010. That seems like a recipe for an award in the $7-$8 million range, and I think Koji is a solid bet to worth that amount out of the 'pen. Recommendation: Offer arbitration. If he accepts, fine. If you resign him and avoid arbitration, great. If he declines, take the pick.

Kevin Millwood: 5 year/$60 million contract expired

2010 stats: 190.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 1.3 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR

2009 stats: 198.2 IP, 5.57 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 4.80 FIP, 4.78 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR

Millwood is clearly on his last legs as a Major League starting pitcher. He's been roughly the same pitcher since 2007, striking out a bit more than 6 batters per nine while walking about 3 per nine with an ERA fluctuating between solid and poor as his BABIP moves around the league average. He's not a good bet to be worth more than a win (or maybe two), meaning that he'll almost assuredly be overpaid in arbitration. He is, however, a very durable pitcher with the ability munch a lot of innings. Plus, an arbitration award would mean just a one year commitment.

I suspect that the team would very much like to have another veteran arm to complement Guthrie and Matusz; Arrieta, Bergesen and Tillman are still wild cards in terms of their performance, and Zach Britton may or may not be ready for the big league rotation. Thus, the question becomes whether or not the club can entice a similar pitcher to Millwood to sign in Baltimore for a lower cost (for clarity's sake, I'm working on the wild assumption that Cliff Lee isn't coming to Baltimore). Looking at the list of free agent pitchers, filled with injury question marks and guys seeking longer-term deals, I'm not sure they can. Recommendation: Offer arbitration, assuming an award in the $10-$12 million range. Ideally, you'd sign a player like Millwood for about $6 million, so if he accepts, you've overpaid for stability, but haven't locked yourself into a long-term deal. If you resign him and avoid arbitration, you've still overpaid, but haven't locked yourself into a long-term deal. And if he declines because he doesn't want to return to Baltimore and he's willing to accept less money elsewhere, take the pick.

I realize my Millwood recommendation is both expensive and controversial. Disagree with my conclusion? Let me know why.

Hitting Drill

2010-10-15T08:41:00.000-04:00

As Daniel at Camden Crazies has been telling us for months (and as others have detailed more recently), Nick Markakis struggled to hit with any pull power this season, and that makes this article extremely interesting to me. As the article details, "There is a core of players who regularly use Long’s drill, which teaches players to pull the ball for power." Sounds like just the medicine he needs! In a related story, the Orioles still haven't made any decisions about bringing back Terry Crowley for next year.

Shortstop

2010-10-13T09:06:00.000-04:00

The Orioles need a shortstop. Cesar Izturis is a free agent, and there are no viable internal options (sorry, Mr. Andino). The Orioles could potentially resign Izturis, but his bat has deteriorated so incredibly far that even excellent defense leaves him below replacement level (-34 batting runs brought him to -0.4 fWAR in 2010). The options on the free agent market are also extremely thin. There is, however, one intriguing (potential) option: Hiroyuki Nakajima. There is no guarantee that he will be posted this off season, and there are certainly questions over how well he would make the transition to MLB, but given the dearth of domestic options, this is one import the Orioles would do well to give a long, hard look. Could signing Koji two years ago have also helped address the shortstop position?

Adrian Beltre

2010-09-28T20:03:00.000-04:00

Last winter, Adrian Beltre didn't like the options he had for signing a long-term contract and instead signed a 1-year deal with the Boston Red Sox for $9 million (plus a player option he's sure to decline). In their excellent contract crowdsourcing series, FanGraphs took up his free agent case today. The result: 4 years/$13 million per. At that price, the Orioles should absolutely pursue Beltre for a long-term deal. The club has no clear cut option for anyone on the left side of the infield (if Josh Bell succeeds in 2011 I'll happily eat those words), and the club could really use a right-handed hitter capable of hitting for some pop. No, he doesn't bring the on-base skills this club really needs, but he sure does bring the glove. He's probably a 3-win player, making the $13 million annual value appropriate, and he would fill a much needed hole for the O's. This would be a good signing.

Craft Beer

2010-09-25T11:52:00.000-04:00

The Sun website picked up a Chicago Tribune article on craft beer today, entitled "Craft beer market draws attention of big breweries". There's nothing new in there (it could have easily been written in 2005, only without the focus on recession), but there is one epic fail: there's not a single quote from a craft brewer! The writer quotes PR people from Diageo, Tenth & Blake (MillerCoors), and several industry publication sources, but fails to talk to anyone from the other side of the story (have you ever met a craft brewer not willing to talk?). Sigh.

Alewife

2010-09-22T14:05:00.000-04:00

Last weekend, Alewife opened about 0.4 miles north of Gate H at Camden Yards. Always on the lookout for great beer, especially within a short walk of the ballpark, I thought I better check it out. It was well worth the trip.

As anyone who visited the building in its former incarnation as Maggie Moore's or Lucy's can attest, Alewife is an impressive bar space. High ceilings, ample seating, beautiful stained glass windows; it's tough to imagine a better setting for a drink. And, speaking of drink, Alewife aims to please. The bar has 40 draft lines and, once they're fully up and running, will stock more than 100 different bottles. If they regularly pour a draft lineup anywhere near as good as their debut efforts, though, that bottle list will be superfluous. After much consternation, I decided to try a Jolly Pumpkin Calabaza Blanco ($8) and a Smuttynose Big A IPA ($5), both new to me. Other options included beers from Oscar Blues, Bear Republic, Green Flash, Stone, and Victory, several Belgians, and a healthy selection of IPAs (hops seem to be the owners' Achilles heel). I chatted with a knowledgeable bartender, Brian, who explained that the beer list will change regularly, with one or two taps changing on a daily basis that so every two to three weeks nearly the entire list will turnover, keeping the beer fresh and regulars from getting bored. There are also plans in the works to regularly put casks on the bar, but a permanent pump system is unlikely. As for food, I really enjoyed my Smoke Burger ($14). The beef was of very high quality and actually cooked to order (medium), while the gruyere, gouda and bacon topping was a divine combination. Oh, and did I mention the rosemary garlic duck fat fries? Fantastic. I can't wait to go back and try the Cubano ($12).

Two early criticisms I've seen of Alewife are 1) a lack of local beer and 2) bartenders who weren't beer geeks. As to the first, while Flying Dog Pale Ale was the only Maryland beer on tap, I would certainly define Victory and Dogfish as local brews. Heavy Seas is sure to make an appearance in the rotation, and, hopefully, Troegs and Stoudts will soon follow. Personally, it doesn't matter to me if there are only one or two Maryland options at any given time since local beer has become fairly ubiquitous (at least at the places I visit). At a place with a draft list like Alewife, I like to branch out and try new things. However, I certainly think local beer needs to have a strong presence; treating the locals guys right will only benefit the business. Guys like Hugh Sisson and Steve Jones are tremendous advocates for craft beer and the local beer scene, and showcasing their products is important.

As for the second, I had no problems with my two bartenders. Before Alewife opened, the owners sponsored a two week intensive seminar for all the bar and wait staff where they tasted more than 200 beers across two full weeks of training, and the research seems to have paid off. The staff could certainly explain broad style differences between beers, and while I didn't test for intricate knowledge of subtle differences between the Belgian brews, I was offered a sample of the two IPAs I was trying to choose between. Aside from perhaps the beer geekiest of craft drinkers, I can't imagine most people needing more technical knowledge from their barkeep.

Of course, I've largely ignored the elephant in the room when it comes to Alewife: location. The bar is gorgeous, the draft list impressive, and the food delicious. But will all that be enough to draw in paying customers? I certainly hope so, and I'm optimistic. In recent months, several new (albeit lunch focused) restaurants have opened in the same block, and this area is the focus of an incredible (after accounting for the recession) amount of new commercial investment; plus, the new owners are saying all the right things about being committed to the neighborhood's renaissance. During the day, there are plenty of office and hospital workers, plus students from several schools, in the area, but will those people stick around for happy hour or trek back on a Saturday night? Special events--like the upcoming October 1 Stone Brewing event--should help. Still, while there are countless reasons, from poor cash flow management to bad food, that restaurants fail, it is an ominous sign that both Maggie Moore's and Lucy's didn't make it in the same location. Let's hope the third time is the charm, because Alewife is an excellent addition to the Baltimore beer scene.

Felix Pie and Terry Crowley

2010-09-10T09:15:00.000-04:00

Felix Pie, via The Baltimore Sun, talking about Terry Crowley: "The Felix Pie that everybody sees right now, that is because this guy made that person." And later, Terry Crowley on Felix Pie: "He’s shown us that he can hit for an average, and he’s shown us that he’s got power."

Felix Pie has a .304 OBP and a 4.1% walk rate in 2010. In 2009, he walked 8.5% of the time. In his short Cubs career, he walked 8.4% of the time. Across parts of 8 minor league seasons, he walked 7.4% of the time. Note that Terry didn't say "He's shown us that he can get on base." I like Felix, and I think he can still become a good player. But has he really made the kind of progress that is a good thing to attribute to the hitting coach?

Matt Wieters Facts

2010-09-09T10:25:00.001-04:00

On May 29, 2009, Baltimore though the future had arrived when one of baseball's top prospects, complete with is own facts page, made his Major League debut. Unfortunately, a bit more than a year later, that future still looked bleak. On June 19, 2010, Matt Wieters completed a third consecutive 0-for-4, dropping his career line to .263/.318/.377 in 625 plate appearances over 158 games. His 2010 line was a woeful .222/.283/.321, hardly worthy of his survivor-free batting practice sessions. In a season where nearly everything that could go wrong had gone wrong, Wieters' failures were among the most frustrating for Orioles fans.

Just in case you gave up at that bleakest of moments, I'm here to rekindle your faith. Here is the line that Matt has posted since June 20: .299/.383/.494 with 19 extra base hits (12 doubles, a triple, and 6 homers), 25 walks and just 26 strike outs in 193 plate appearances. Small sample size, yes, but for a prospect with his pedigree, these numbers cannot be ignored. Let's dig a little deeper into Wieters early career.

First and foremost, let's examine Wieters approach at the plate. In 2009 and the first half of 2010 (which I'll designate herein as ending June 19), Matt was overmatched. He struck out in 22.1% of his plate appearances, and walked about one third as much (7.4%). When he did make contact, it usually wasn't very authoritative; he knocked extra base hits in just 5.9% of his plate appearances. FanGraphs doesn't break out plate discipline numbers intra-season (at least, I don't know how to do that), but in 2009, Wieters swung at 70.2% of pitches in the strike zone (above the league average of 66.0%), and he made contact on just 83.4% of those swings (below the league average of 87.8%). Combined, Matt was swinging at at 47.2% of the pitches he saw, 190 basis points over the league average rate of 45.3%.

Now, though, Wieters doesn't look anything like the same hitter. He's lowered his strike out percentage markedly (13.5% since June 20), and raised his walk rate to nearly match it (13.0%). The contact he makes is much more solid: 9.8% of the time he's poked an extra base hit. Even his full 2010 plate discipline numbers have improved. His in the strike zone swing percentage has dipped (to 60.7%; league average is 64.4%), and he's making contact at above average rates (91.5% of the time in the strike zone; league average is 88.2%). Rather than swinging more than most hitters, Matt is now more selective, swinging 43.2% of the time (below the league average of 45.6%).

Wieters' full 2010 season line is also a bit deceiving in that he is likely the victim of a bit of bad luck in the BABIP department. Plugging in his 2010 season totals, I calculate his xBABIP as .318. Adjusting his line (by adding 9 singles and 2 doubles) to reflect these additional 0.028 BABIP points turns him into a .283/.353/.429 hitter for the season. Importantly, his hot streak since June 20 has been built on the back of a .316 BABIP, a number right in line with his career total and his xBABIP calculation.

So, what's the takeaway? Well, it sure looks to me like Matt Wieters has successfully adjusted to Major League pitching. He's striking out less, walking more, and being more selective at the plate. His recent hot streak is absolutely not driven by luck in the BABIP department. Combined with his prospect pedigree, there is every indication that this turnaround is real. The Orioles now have the stud catcher we were all expecting.

Orioles Attendance (Revisited)

2010-08-30T14:39:00.000-04:00

Remember a few weeks ago when The Sun ran a piece asserting that despite the Orioles awful start to the season attendance was actually running higher than a year ago? And remember how I did a little fancy math and took issue with their assertion? What's happened since then?

Well, things look like we would expect them to for a team threatening to turn in the worst season in franchise history. That is, attendance is lower than a year ago. Last year, on August 31, the Orioles were averaging 24,365 fans per game; today (with one game still to go in August), the O's are drawing 21,069. That's a decline of 13.5%. Interestingly, the model I built this spring predicts 24,115 fans per game for the O's, very similar to last season's actual results, indicating that the two seasons have now seen a similar attendance generating schedule for the club.

Bluefield Orioles

2010-08-30T13:41:00.000-04:00

The news this weekend that the O's were ending a 53-season relationship with the Bluefield Orioles hit me harder than most Baltimore fans. See, I became a Baltimore Orioles fan largely because of the Bluefield Orioles. My dad's family is from Bluefield, and we have a long history with the organization. My grandparents were season ticket holders for many, many seasons, my dad and his brother were both batboys for the team, and my uncle currently serves on the club's board of directors; many of our most frequently told family stories revolve around the stands at Bowen Field, especially the grilling my grandfather would give to umpires failing to call the strike zone in favor of the home town team. When I interviewed with the Orioles for my summer internship, I explained my Bluefield connection to illustrate my ties to the organization. Thus, the announcement came as a particularly sharp blow.

No, it probably won't matter for the long-run health of the Major League club whether or not the Baltimore Orioles have an Appalachian League franchise, but every Orioles fan should be just a little bit saddened by this announcement. Bluefield--and towns like it all across America--epitomize the small-town Americana image of minor league baseball. Bluefield, which was the longest-running relationship in affiliated baseball, was still a link to that long-lost "Oriole Way", the idea that a freshly signed draft pick would enter into the organization and learn the same methods and practices that the big leaguers in far-off Baltimore were using in the Major Leagues. I hope Bluefield attracts another big league club to take over its operations, but the city just won't be the same without the Baby Birds.

Zach Britton

2010-08-26T20:58:00.000-04:00

I hate to say I told you so, but... I told you so. As reported today by the various O's outlets, Zach Britton is most likely not going to make his Major League debut in 2010. He's slated to pitch August 30 for the Tides, and then will likely start once again before the season is over (the final Norfolk game of the season is September 6). That will bring his total number of AAA starts to a dozen, giving him somewhere in the range of 65-70 innings at the minors' highest level, pushing his season total right near 160, a modest increase from his totals of the past two seasons*. If the Orioles really wanted to give him a taste of the Majors, he could easily handle another start or two, but considering that he's not on the 40-man roster, patting him on the back and handing him the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award is probably the smartest way to go. Congrats on a great season, Zach. We'll see you in Baltimore real soon. Please bring that sinker when you come.

*If minor league stats are to be believed. Seriously, every source reports something just a little bit different.

Triple Crown

2010-08-26T14:59:00.001-04:00

Over in the National League, things are shaping up for quite the month of September in the NL Central. The Cardinals and the Reds looks set to battle down to the final weekend for the division title, with the victor perhaps propelled by a Triple Crown* winner in either Albert Pujols or Joey Votto. You would think that MLB would be trying to capitalize on the chase for this rare feat, but their stats page fails miserably. Take a look:

Why can't I click a button that shows me only the NL leaders? Then, I could see Joey Votto's smiling face atop the batting average leaders (.326, over Carlos Gonzalez at .320 and Pujols at .319), Pujols grinning as the leader in home runs (33, over Votto's and Adam Dunn's 31), and then Pujols again above the pack in RBI (92, over Votto's 90). C'mon, MLB - make it easy for me to follow the Triple Crown race!

*I know the Triple Crown race is virtually meaningless, but it would still be a hugely exciting achievement.

Fans Scouting Reports

2010-08-25T08:18:00.000-04:00

Got a view on the just how good (or average) Adam Jones or Nick Markakis is at defense? Then let your voice be heard!

Looking Ahead to 2011

2010-08-24T14:53:00.000-04:00

Inspired by the Royals Authority, I decided to take at look at what the Orioles can expect in 2011, in terms of WAR. According to FanGraphs, the 2010 Orioles have posted a mere 10.8 WAR, 29th in baseball (ahead of only Pittsburgh). At the other end of the spectrum, the Twins (43.3), Red Sox (40.0), Rays (37.2), Yankees (35.7), Giants (35.6), Braves (35.4), Padres (35.0), and Rangers (34.2) show what it takes to be a contender.*

*On the other hand, the Blue Jays (34.0) show just how hard it is to compete in the AL East. They'd be fighting neck-and-neck in nearly any other division in baseball.

In 2009, both the Yankees (58.4) and Red Sox (52.5) topped 50 wins, while the Red Sox (59.5) and Cubs (51.4) turned the trick in 2008; in 2007, the Red Sox posted 55.9 WAR with Yankees second at 49.7. (Full results available here; you have to add pitcher and hitter results). Thus, since the Orioles must build a team capable of being the best in baseball in order to challenge within its own division, the O's need to build a 45 to 50 WAR team in order to compete for a playoff spot out of the American League East. Can they do that in the near future? Let's go position by position.

Pos: Projected 2011 Player (2010 WAR, 2009 WAR)

CA: Matt Wieters (1.7, 1.6) Wieters is a key for the club going forward. His scouting pedigree and minor league track record suggests a future MVP candidate. His current Major League production is solid average. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR

1B: Nolan Reimold (-0.3, 1.3) After a very solid offensive debut in 2009, Reimold fell off a cliff in 2010. I'm inclined to chalk it up to his Achilles injury, and he has been hitting better at Norfolk of late, but September will be a crucial audition for Reimold. 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR

2B: Brian Roberts (0.3, 3.9) From 2003 to 2009, Roberts posted win totals of 2.5, 2.4, 6.7, 3.2, 4.7, 4.8 and 3.9. Then, he suffered a back injury while working out this past off-season and has been slow to return to his former self. Most ominously, his range in the field looks severely diminished. Will an off-season lead to further recovery and a return of the B-Rob of old, or is he destined to make laughable his contract extension? 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR

SS: I have no idea (Cesar Izturis: -0.5, 1.1) Thanks to a replacement level bat and a good glove, Cesar Izturis posted a postive WAR season in 2009. His glove has slipped in 2010, making him sub-replacement level. Given the scarcity of shortstop options likely to be available this off-season, it's tough to project anything more than replacement level for next season. 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR

3B: Josh Bell (Bell and Miguel Tejada: -0.1, Melvin Mora: 1.2) Bell clearly has some talent, but he's also looked over-matched in his initial Major League at-bats. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR

LF: Felix Pie (-0.2, 1.2) I'm a big fan of Pie, but I'm unfortunately not sure if its warranted. He may be just a 4th outfielder, capable of producing in the right spot, but not good enough to merit an every day job. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR

CF: Adam Jones (1.6, 1.8) Another super athletic outfielder with an incredible ability to both amaze and confound. Sometimes he makes baseball look easy, and then he'll chase three straight down and away sliders and let a double fly over his head in center field. The whole package is still good, but he always leaves us expecting greatness that I'm not sure will ever be there over the course of entire season. 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR

RF: Nick Markakis (1.8, 2.2) Is Nick the guy with the 7% walk rate from 2009 and the second half of 2010, or the 14% walk rate from 2008 and the first half of 2010? Is his defense above or below average? Will he ever hit 20 home runs again? He'll probably never again be the 6.3 WAR player he was in 2008, but can he be a 4.0 win guy over the life of his contract? For the Orioles to contend, he needs to be. 2011 Aggressive Projection: 4.0 WAR

DH: Luke Scott (2.7, 1.5) With a career .240 ISO, it's clear the man can hit for power. He's not a great defender, but he's not a bad one either, grading out just about average in left over the course of his career. Why the O's refused to let him play first base and instead signed Garrett Atkins I have no idea. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR

That's a total of 16.5 WAR from the regular offense. On to the pitching!

Starting Pitching:
Jeremy Guthrie (1.5, 1.1) 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR
Brian Matusz (1.8, 0.8)  2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
Jake Arrieta (0.2)  2011 Projection: 0.5 WAR
Zach Britton (n/a)  2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Chris Tillman (0.0, -0.1)  2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Brad Bergesen (0.0, 2.3)  2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR

Do you have any better suggestions for how to project the pitching for next year? Clearly, these individuals are going to have an extremely large variance surrounding their projected outcome. I think that 2010 Guthrie is about what we can expect from him, while I'm hoping we see more of pound-the-strike-zone Brian Matusz going forward. As for the others? Well, maybe Tillman will finally put it all together, and maybe he won't. Britton could be a left-handed Brandon Webb, or he could be a left-handed Brad Bergesen. And Brad Bergesen? Well, I haven't a clue. Starting pitcher total: 4.0 WAR

Bullpen:
It's pretty useless to project a bullpen this far in advance, but with David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Alfredo Simon, and a quite a few other live arms in the organization, Andy MacPhail should be able to piece together a serviceable bullpen. What's a serviceable bullpen worth? Well, great relievers are worth 2.0-3.0 WAR, while about 100 individuals have accumulated a positive WAR value. As a team, the Orioles 2010 team has posted 1.1 WAR. On the other hand, a great bullpen properly leveraged can be worth 8.0 wins or more. Let's give them 3.0 WAR for 2011.

Add it all up and the Orioles project for about 23.5 WAR in 2011. While clearly far short of our 45 to 50 goal, how many wins is that? About 70. Yikes.

So, how can the Orioles break out of this path that they're on? Clearly, the easiest way is for the starting pitching to develop. Teams with great pitching pitching staffs can easily earn 15 or more wins from their starters and this group of young pitchers clearly has impressive upside potential. In our dream world, everyone develops at the same time; let's say there are an additional 10.0 potential WAR (2.0 from Matusz, 2.0 from Arrieta, 3.0 from Britton, and 3.0 from Tillman) on the starting pitching front. Next, we'll make Buck Showalter a bullpen match-up genius. Rather than the 3.0 WAR a mere mortal would achieve from the O's bullpen, we'll double that total and make the 'pen worth another 3.0 potential WAR. Now we're up to 36.5 and the O's are above .500! Where can we find another wins?

1) Acquire a quality shortstop. This won't come cheap, nor will it be easy, but this is the Orioles most glaring hole. Finding 3.0 WAR at the shortstop position is necessary for our rebuilding program to be a success. If not, the absolute best glove available should be sought and "for the best" should be hoped.
2) Find the Matt Wieters that left no survivors after batting practice. Can Wieters be the MVP candidate everyone thought he would become? He'd add another 2.0 WAR (or more) if he did.
3) Proper use of bench and platoon players. With Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott, the Orioles have surprising flexibility to play match-ups and rest regulars. Add another 1.0 WAR for bench players.
4) This still leaves the O's about 6.0 wins short of being a contender and lacking a stud bat in the middle of the lineup. Can Adam Jones add a few WAR to his total? What about Josh Bell; should the O's make a move to acquire a third baseman or first baseman? Can Brian Roberts bounce back?

While a realistic projection again foretells a losing season for the O's in 2011, the orange-tinted glasses look reveals enough upside on the pitching staff to push the club close to .500. A further clicking of the ruby orange slippers shows that enough development out of the young hitters could move the club into range to compete with the Blue Jays. If the team really wants to compete, though, it's going to have to do more than hope everything goes right (hint: it won't) with the existing roster. There are no stars on this team, and the lack of true top tier talents means that a reasonable ceiling for this club is probably the .500 mark, even if all goes well. To compete in the AL East, this team needs top shelf talent. Unfortunately, I don't have many suggestions for Mr. MacPhail when it comes to acquiring that talent.

Consistency

2010-08-24T08:56:00.000-04:00

One thing that drives me crazy is when announcers, writers and analysts bemoan a lack of "consistency." Usually, the player subject to such comments is actually quite consistent: consistently bad. In reality, though, this is a completely meaningless comment. Baseball is a game of binary outcomes. You either get on base, or you make an out. You either win, or you lose (and sometimes it rains). Are you asking for the player to do the same thing every at-bat? Or post the same aggregate outcome for each game? And how come consistency is never used with a negative connotation? So the next time you want to say a player needs to develop some "consistency," please instead use the English language correctly and explain that what you really want is to see positive outcomes on a regular basis. Of course, it doesn't sound as smart to say "Adam Jones needs to get some hits," does it?

Gary Thorne and Stats

2010-08-20T10:08:00.000-04:00

If you follow @theorioleway on Twitter, then you know that I'm not exactly a fan of Gary Thorne's play-by-play "analysis." Just this week, he was amazed by the concept of regression to the mean, and I distinctly remember Thorne praising Cesar Izturis for collecting more hits than any other #9 hitter in baseball. Well, it turns out that nerds like me aren't the only ones who don't like Thorne. Take it away, anonymous Baltimore Sun commenter:

Pete, I think they should throw the stats books in the trash. They have ruined the game.

Managers manage more from stats than feel of the game. I do like the fact that Buck is old school in the way he looks at the game. If a pitcher is pitching well, let them pitch. A quality start to me is one we win, period. Who cares if the guy goes eight and looses.

We have guys in the big leagues who don't get to play because they are a left hander against a left hander and if the occasion comes that they do get a start against a left hander and they don't produce immediately, they almost never get another shot.

To me if the guy can play he can play against all types, let 'em play.

The chances of seeing a guy with 300 wins is gone because they aren't around for a late game ralley's or they get pulled for a match up reliever who blows the game. This is an easy game made complicated by stats.

In addition, have you listened to a Gary Thorne broadcast, he spouts stats all game long to the point I want to scream. Who cares if guy hits .300 on days where the sun shines from west instead of the east.

The game is way over analyzed. Just play ball.

Yes, this is why I can't read the Sun. But I think it's funny that Gary Thorne makes all types of people want to scream.

Shhh...

2010-08-20T07:28:00.001-04:00

Don't look now but Nolan Reimold is hitting .327/.500/.500 in August with 16 walks and 9 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances. His July slash line (.235/.361/.382 driven by a .238 BABIP) isn't much to write home about, but he walked 18 times (against 14 strikeouts) in 122 plate appearances. The power doesn't look to be all the way back after his season ending injury from last year, but he sure does bring a good approach to the plate. I'm looking forward to seeing him come back to Baltimore (and play a little first base!) this September.

The Inconsistently Consistent Adam Jones

2010-08-18T13:47:00.000-04:00

For those missing me, I was in China for two weeks and thus unavailable to comment on the O's. Of course, the Orioles chose this time period to put together their best stretch of the season, starting the Buck Showalter era 9-2. I landed in the U.S. on Saturday, and since returning to North American airspace, the O's are 1-3. I think we all know who is the problem.

While I was overseas, one of the most pleasing developments was Adam Jones' hot hitting. From July 31 to August 13, he hit .400/.444/.600, a line I'd take any day of the week. That brought his season line to .282/.318/.452, virtually identical to his current reading (you need only to add a single point to his OBP). What I find amazing is just how similar that line is to his final 2009 numbers. Take a look:

Given how poorly Jones started the season (.245/.268/.383 through June 4), I find it pretty impressive that he was able to match last season's numbers. If he can keep his .315/.362/.514 line since that date going, we might very well be seeing Jones become the player everyone anticipated. If not, well, a .280/.330/.450 line from your centerfielder isn't the worst thing in the world, either.

Orioles History

2010-07-30T14:07:00.000-04:00

The One Royal Way blog (Twitter @OneRoyalWay) asked me to write up an introduction to Orioles history over at their site, and I was happy to oblige. This looks like an excellent resource not only for Royals fans, but for anyone seeking out grassroots coverage of any of the teams around baseball. I'm looking forward to checking out some of the new O's bloggers on his list.

Poll Results

2010-07-29T20:22:00.000-04:00

I ran a poll a few weeks ago, but I'm not sure how scientific my results are. For instance, my home computer never did show me that anyone else voted, but my work computer tallied away. Regardless, O's fans are a pessimistic bunch: half the voters picked the O's to finish with the worst overall record, and the other half picked the club to finish with the second worst record. Given the way the club has started the second half, I fear those who picked the O's to finish out of the top (bottom?) spot are a bit optimistic. At least we don't have to play the Blue Jays tonight.

Jose Bautista

2010-07-28T11:22:00.000-04:00

Jose Bautista has crushed the Orioles this season, posting a .326/.400/.884 line with six homers in just 50 at-bats. It's safe to say that the former Oriole is a big reason why the O's are 0-11 against the Blue Jays this season. More interestingly, though, Bautista has enjoyed a truly break out season at age 29, leading the league in home runs and posting 2.5 WAR in 400 plate appearances. This has of course led to a great deal of analysis about whether or not his break out is "real" or simply a fluke. R.J. Anderson has the latest piece at Bloomberg today.

Unfortunately, every single thing I've read about Bautista this season falls short in one important respect: no one has mentioned his path to the Majors. In 2003, Bautista played 51 games at A+ Lynchburg where he posted a .242/.359/.424 line at age 22. At this point, he had accumulated 990 plate appearances across the Gulf Coast, NY-Penn, Sally, and Carolina leagues. Then, the Baltimore Orioles selected Bautista in the Rule V draft and jumped him straight to the big leagues. In 2004, he received a combined 96 plate appearances with four different organizations.

Since he didn't stick in the Majors, Bautista returned to the Pirates in 2004, and the Bucs did the sensible thing and assigned him to AA in 2005. There, he posted solid numbers, hitting .283/.364/.503 with 23 home runs in 507 plate appearances. His development looked to be on-track.

In 2006, the Pirates jumped him to the Major Leagues after just 119 plate appearances in AAA. Add in the 55 pa's he received in AAA in 2005, and Bautista had only 174 plate appearances at the highest level of the minor leagues. Over the next four seasons, Bautista was largely a full-time player for Pittsburgh and Toronto, accumulating 1911 Major League plate appearances and posting a .242/.334/.412 line, equivalent to a 96 OPS+. Certainly not great, but he was just a bit below average with the bat. Add in a bit below average glove, and Bautista was only marginally more effective than a replacement player over that span.

Bautista's 2010 exploits have been well chronicled, so I won't rehash them here. I do, however, want to raise an important question: how did Bautista's non-traditional path to the Major Leagues affect his long-run development? Certainly, 2004 was a lost developmental year, and he also spent negligible time at AAA before his final promotion to the Majors. Yet, all along the way, Bautista showed good plate discipline. Should we really be so surprised by his break out season? Let's throw out 2004, and also toss 2006, Bautista's first full Major League season. Would a 27-year old hitter with an 11.6% walk rate a 96 OPS+ in about 1500 plate appearances across three seasons, and who also showed power potential in the minor leagues, enjoying a break out really shock us? For instance, Brian Roberts had nearly 1700 Major League plate appearances and an 83 OPS+ before his breakout 2005 season.

I don't know the answers to those questions, but I think they have important implications for player development. The Orioles have tended to rush their young pitching prospects, and they definitely pushed Nick Markakis aggressively. I don't think you can make a reasonable case that Josh Bell was big league-ready at the time of his promotion this year. While each player is obviously unique, how do aggressive assignments affect player development, in aggregate?

Is Bautista's 2010 season a fluke? Quite possibly. But given his handling during his key developmental years, I'm absolutely not willing to casually dismiss his power surge.

Second Half Poll

2010-07-15T21:41:00.001-04:00

I've decided to run my very first poll here at the Bird's Nest; check out the sidebar and vote. I'll report the results next week.

Question: Where will the Orioles select in the 2011 First Year Player Draft?

Here are two valuable resources for research:
coolstandings.com
baseballprospectus.com

Midseason Review

2010-07-13T14:38:00.000-04:00

It's the All-Star break, and that of course means a ~~celebration~~ recap of the first half. New to this year's review, each award gets a Twitter hash tag!

Most Valuable Oriole: Nick Markakis
Nick's .308/.395/.452 line is good for a .371 wOBA and 2.2 WAR. He may only have 6 homers and 31 RBI but I'll take a league-leading 28 doubles, a 1:1 K:BB ratio and a 12.9% walk rate any day of the week. And, for the record, Nick has a .316/.421/.408 line with runners in scoring position. #RBIfail

Jim Palmer Award (since Cy Young was a Red Sock): Brian Matusz
Slim pickins. I considered Matusz, Guthrie, Berken, and Simon, and really, none of them deserve the honor. I went with Matusz since he's just 23 years old, and when he's on, he's brilliant. Maybe we should change this to the #JorgeJulioAward.

Rolaids Relief Award: Jason Berken
There's been no shortage of heartburn from the O's bullpen (for instance, the team has allowed an .842 OPS in the 8th inning, an .878 OPS in the 9th, and a mind boggling 1.001 OPS in extra innings), but Berken really does spell relief. Across 50.2 IP, he's post a 1.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He began the season in a long relief role but has earned the right to pitch higher leverage innings. A prime example of the way a former starter's stuff can play up in the bullpen. #ProjectingRelieverPerformanceIsHard

Biggest Bust Award: Garrett Atkins
That was $4.5 million wasted. Too bad we didn't spend the money on some more scouts or something. #NeverSawThisComing

Biggest Bust Award II: Mike Gonzalez
Another $12.0 million well-spent. At least he's on pace to void my prediction that he never pitches in an Oriole uniform again. #ProjectingRelieverPerformanceIsHardSoDon'tSpendBigMoneyOnThem

Biggest Disappointment: Matt Wieters
Finally, a category where we have lots of candidates from which to choose! Nolan Reimold (now batting .215 in Norfolk), Adam Jones (.304 OBP), and Chris Tillman (two stints in Norfolk) have all disappointed in one way or another, but Wieters production is the most worrisome. Expected to be the cornerstone of a revitalized lineup, he's instead batting a measly .245/.315/.357. To my untrained eyes, he's looked overmatched at times. At least his defense has received rave reviews. #BaseballIsHard

Newest Man Crush: Zach Britton
He's gotten ground balls nearly two-thirds of the time in Bowie and Norfolk and was one of the standout performers at this weekend's Futures Game. Granted, allowing ground balls is a terrible strategy considering the Orioles infield defense, but maybe one day we'll get some guys with more range than the Babe Ruth statue out there. #FutureAce

Best Nickname: Alfredo Simon
#ShutdownSauce

Biggest All-Star Snub: Nick Markakis
No, he probably doesn't deserve to make the team without the one player from each team rule, but that's no excuse for Joe Girardi selecting Ty Wigginton instead. Since he clubbed two homers on May 15 to bring his OPS to 1.070, Wigginton is hitting .212/.303/.272 with just two home runs in 211 plate appearances. A .562 OPS in 152 plate appearances from Garrett Atkins got him designated for assignment, but a .575 mark from Wiggy means he goes to the All-Star game. I guess now would be a good time to point out that Oriole clean-up hitters are hitting a stout .229/.292/.315. #TimingIsEverything

In conclusion, the first half of the season has been a disaster. The O's are just 29-59, but at least they're finally off the pace of the 1962 Mets. The club is about to hire its third manager of the year. The young talent has regressed. There are serious questions about the ability of the coaching staff to develop Major Leaguers. And attendance continues to dwindle. But with bright spots like Nick Markakis and flickerings from Adam Jones, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Jason Berken, David Hernandez and Alredo Simon, there are still plenty of reasons to watch in the second half.

Trade Deadline Primer

2010-07-12T09:34:00.000-04:00

If you're like me, you've noticed that Daniel Moroz at Camden Crazies hasn't recently been blogging quite as frequently as is usual. Well, now I know why. The 2010 Trade Deadline Primer is out, and it's an incredible piece work of work by Daniel and other bloggers from around the league. Would you like to know which Major Leaguers are likely to be available from each of the 30 teams? How about the prospects each team has to offer in return? Or perhaps you're more interested in specific first basemen or shortstops the Orioles could chase at the deadline. It's all there, plus rundowns of the first half for each team and essays from around the league. This is a fantastic work from the analyst community, and a prime example of why I enjoy baseball on the Internet so much. Check out the free version (about 1/4 of the book), or spring for the whole thing; I suspect it will be $10 well spent.

Zach Britton

2010-06-29T10:14:00.000-04:00

In a year of disappointments, one major bright spot within the Orioles organization is the performance of Zach Britton. The O's 3rd ranked prospect this offseason has been excellent at AA Bowie, racking up a 3.44 FIP (91.2 IP, 68 K, 28 BB, 4 home runs allowed) and an incredible 64.1% ground ball ratio. Now, he's been called up to Norfolk, a promotion that he has certainly earned. Understandably, this has caused speculation about whether or not we'll see Britton in Baltimore this season (assuming he keeps up his stellar performance in AAA, of course). Britt Ghiroli sure seems to think its possible, but I'm a touch skeptical.

By my count, the Tides have 65 games remaining this season, meaning that Britton is likely to make about a dozen starts in the International League. He's already thrown 91.2 innings across 15 games this season, and another 12 starts would likely add about 70-75 innings to his season total. Britton tossed 140.1 innings in 2009, and 153.0 in 2008, so I can certainly see the Orioles pushing him to about 160 or 170 innings this season. As we all know, 91 + 70 = 161. Would the Orioles bring Britton to Baltimore just for one or two starts, or perhaps a handful of relief appearances? It's certainly possible, but I don't think that's the most likely scenario. Britton is still just 22 years old, and the club handled young pitchers Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman very carefully in September just a year ago, shutting down the youngsters at the first signs of fatigue. As a fan, I'd love to see Britton make it all the way to Baltimore this year, but I've got my money on a 2011 debut.

Mike Flanagan

2010-06-23T14:15:00.000-04:00

I got into a good exchange with @CamdenDepot today regarding the potential re-re-hiring of Mike Flanagan as pitching coach. He contends that the "current pitching development system the O's run is still the model Flanny put in place." Since Flanagan was previously the pitching coach in 1995 and 1998, I naturally wondered if that covered the entire time between now and then, or if this was a relatively recent plan put in place during Flanagan's tenure as an executive (which began in 2003). Since pitching busts like Matt Riley, Mike Paradis, Richard Stahl, Beau Hale and Chris Smith all hail from the intermediate time, I think it's important to ask just when the development program took effect. I think Crawdaddy is arguing that most of the plan went into effect in recent years (and not in the late 90s), but since this is difficult to discuss over Twitter and it seems like an important part of the organization's direction, I wanted to open up a thread for discussion. If you've got anything to add, please do!

Orioles Attendance

2010-06-21T14:06:00.000-04:00

Yesterday, the Baltimore Sun had a big article stating that, despite the Orioles miserable start, attendance at Camden Yards has actually increased since last season. Here's their assertion: "Even with the Orioles' ineptitude, attendance is up 9.5 percent, from 21,653 to 23,720, through 32 home games compared with the same number of games last year, according to Major League Baseball." Technically, that is true, but it certainly doesn't tell the whole story. The Sun does offer one caveat, noting that the Orioles have had an attractive slate of opponents in the early going, hosting "the Boston Red Sox in two weekend series, the Yankees in two midweek series and the New York Mets on a weekend," while at this point last year the club "had hosted two Yankees series — one on the weekend and one during the week — and no Red Sox games," but they did nothing to quantify the effect. Since they couldn't be bothered, I will do so for them!

First, let's try and build a model that would predict attendance for any single game. What sort of factors might you be interested in? I identified several variables to test: 1) Day of the Week, 2) Attractive Opponent (defined as Yankees, Red Sox and Mets), 4) Opening Day, and 5) Summer (defined as between Memorial Day and Labor Day). Now, obviously, you could also add in things like win loss record, game time temperature, and day game vs. night game, but I'm going for a quick and dirty model here (plus, this is the data I can easily access). After running the regressions on 2009 data*, I came up the following statistically signficant variables (95% confidence interval): Attractive Opponent, Friday, Saturday & Sunday games, Opening Day, and Summer. Thus, games taking place on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday do experience a change in attendance from Monday nights (the baseline case). I think those results are very inuitive. Here's the regression equation:

Attendance = 13,803 + AttOpp(12,185) + Friday(9,538) + Saturday(12,557) + Sunday(6,519) + OpenDay(22,617) + Summer(4,256)

Using that equation, we would expect attendance for the first 32 games of 2010 to be 25,889. Instead, actual attendance came in 8.4% below that number. So where did the Sun go wrong in its analysis?

First, all those attractive opponents make a huge difference. In 2009, the Orioles played a total of 21 home games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets (average attendance of 32,747 including Opening Day), but had played just six of those games by the 32nd home date (average attendance 35,340); they've already played 15 games against those teams in 2010 and averaged just 28,299 fans.

Next, the use of 32 games--and not the calendar date--is also significant. In 2009, the Orioles played home game number 32 on Thursday, June 11. On Friday, June 12, the O's welcomed in the Atlanta Braves for the start of a summer weekend series that averaged 28,295 fans. This year, home game 32 occurred on Sunday, June 13. If you include that Atlanta series to normalize the date, the year on year comparison is less favorable, with the Sun's 2009 number moving from 21,653 to 22,222.

The use of game 32 (and the omission of another weekend series) highlights another important point: the day of the week. The 2009 Orioles played 20 of their first 32 home games a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday; the 2010 O's contested just 17 of 32 on those days of the week.

Thus, when adjusting for opponent, day of the week, and the calendar, the Orioles 2010 attendance is almost assuredly running lower than last season, and I suspect that upcoming series (serieses? serieii?) against the Marlins, Nationals, Athletics, Blue Jays, Twins, Angels, White Sox, Mariners and Rangers (the O's next nine home series) will reveal just that.

*If you would like to see the data set, please email me.

Mainstream Media

2010-06-18T08:56:00.000-04:00

I (and the rest of the saber community) do lots of mainstream media bashing, so I feel its equally important to point out when the media does something well. Jeff Zrebiec did just that in his big feature on Nick Markakis this morning. The money quote:

Overall, the Orioles are second to last in the AL in on-base and slugging percentage. They have the fewest walks in the league, and they see the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.73). They also have the fifth-worst "chase percentage" in baseball in that they swing at 30.2 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone.

Perfect. He used on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and plate discipline, and he did it in a way that is accessible to the casual fan. Nowhere does he mention batting average, and he doesn't rail about the Orioles lack of clutch hitting (which is certainly a problem, but is more a symptom of their poor approach than the cause of their woes). Thanks, Jeff.

Nick Markakis is Not a Happy Camper

2010-06-17T13:28:00.000-04:00

And he wasn't afraid to tell the Sun about it. I don't blame him. Some of his comments:

Sometimes, guys are going up there and it looks like they have no idea what they’re doing.

You can have anybody come here and you still are going to have a couple of guys who are not going to change their approach and fix it. It’s worthless.

Well then.

Mike Gonzalez

2010-06-15T08:09:00.000-04:00

Yesterday, Britt Ghiroli reported that Mike Gonzalez was getting close to returning (perhaps by the end of the month) and that he touched 88 mph in his latest bullpen session. If both of those facts are true, I have one prediction: disaster.

Thanks to Brooks Baseball's Pitch FX Tool, we can use facts. Here is Gonzalez's velocity chart from April 28, 2009:

As you can see, his fastball velocity is between 93 and 95 miles per hour, and almost exclusively above 94 mph. Now, here is his chart from three months later, July 28, 2009:

His velocity is a bit lower, 90-94 mph. Now from the end of last season, September 26, 2009:

Hmmmm... lower still at 88-92 mph. And here is his velocity graph from April 9, 2009:

Sigh. 87-91 mph, and he got it up over 90 just once. Why, exactly, do the Orioles think that Mike Gonzalez at 88 mph 1) is healthy and 2) can be effective? And, it should also be asked, if I can pull this information in between meetings and running reports before 8:00 AM, why the hell did the Orioles sign an injury-prone relief pitcher who showed notable velocity declines during what was easily his highest workload season to a 2-year, $12 million contract? This is exactly the type of decision making that has me thisclose to jumping ship.

Josh Bell

2010-06-14T14:19:00.000-04:00

I was invited to guest blog today over at OriolesProspects.com, where I discussed Josh Bell's struggles against left-handed pitching:

Josh Bell is a switch swinger. That is, he hits from the left side of the plate, but not so much from the right side of the plate. During his minor league career the difference is stark: a career .301/.367/.506 line against right handed pitchers, but a .242/.320/.360 line versus southpaws. The first hitter is a prospect; the second would never make it to the upper levels of the minor leagues.

Check out the rest here...

A (Very) Few Positives

2010-06-14T11:06:00.000-04:00

I said I wasn't going to write again until I had something positive to say. Well, I don't have much yet, but I want to start blogging again, so let's give it a whirl...

1) Brian Matusz turned in a very good start on Saturday night, needing 96 pitches to turn in a final line of 8.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, and 4 K. He didn't walk anyone, but he did give up two home runs. I'd like to see a few more ground balls (11:14 GB:FB ratio) but that rate is much improved from earlier in the season (interestingly, as he's given up more ground balls, he's concurrently given up more home runs. Such is the Orioles).
2) Adam Jones is hot. From June 3 to June 13, he's hitting .324/.390/.514 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and 8 RBI. He's also drawn 3 walks (matching his May and exceeding his April total) and was hit by a pitch in another at-bat. Sure he's struck out 9 times in 10 games, but again, focus on the positives.
3) Jake Arrieta: 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 walks (I refuse to count the INT ones), 6 K, 3 ER in his Major League debut. Against the Yankees, too!
4) David Hernandez earned his first career save, and blew some 97 mph cheddar in the process. Since moving to the bullpen, he's accumulated 7.1 IP, allowed 3 hits and 1 run while striking out 6 and walking 3. Maybe not lights out, but promising.
5) Zach Britton is a ground ball machine. Across 77.1 innings for the Baysox, he has an eye-popping 64.8% ground ball rate. Against lefty batters, he has more strikeouts (23) than hits allowed (21) and nearly as many K's as walks (4) plus hits.
6) Nick Markakis just keeps walking. At 13.1%, his walk rate isn't quite as high as his 2008 season (14.2%), but I'll certainly take it on this team of hackers. While I'd like to see him pull the ball in order to pop a few more home runs (1.1% HR rate vs. 2.7% career), seeing him lace a double to left center is still a thing of beauty.
7) Garrett Atkins has played just three times this month (2-for-8) and I can't imagine that he'll get significant playing time again this season.

Look, that's seven things to be happy about! Unfortunately, none of them involve Orioles wins. Alas, maybe next time.

Guest Beer Blogging

2010-06-09T18:48:00.000-04:00

Last Friday night, I had one of the best experiences of my entire life. You can read all about it here. A quick excerpt:

Tactical Nuclear Penguin just might be the world’s most dangerous beer. Pouring a deep black, this stout measures 32% ABV, but it sure doesn’t taste that way. Instead, the rich, caramel malt character shines through, making this a truly outstanding beer. As BrewDog recommends, we drank it with an aristocratic nonchalance. Similarly, the Tokyo stout, which measures “only” 18.2% ABV, was easily drinkable despite its high alcohol content and subtle enough to allow the cranberry and jasmine flavorings to shine through. BrewDog’s success with these extreme stouts is impressive, and they’ve earned their distinction as one of the world’s most innovative brewers.

Back From the Ledge

2010-06-03T11:23:00.000-04:00

The Orioles are terrible. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it. Virtually every thing that could go wrong with the 2010 season has gone wrong. At 15-38 (.283), the O's are on pace for just 46 wins (or 116 losses, if you prefer), the third worst record of the expansion era (1962 Mets, 40-120, .250; 2003 Tigers, 43-119, .265). I spent this past long weekend out of town, and flipped last night's game off after the Yankees took a 2-0 lead. It was refreshing. Thus, I'm going to take a little break from blogging. This could be a week (say, after the draft), or it could be a month, but I'm going to wait until I have something positive to write. I plan to keep watching and following the team, but its probably best if I recharge my orange colored batteries before doing much more writing about them.

Bergesen Batting

2010-05-23T11:13:00.000-04:00

Brad Bergesen came to bat yesterday in the top of the sixth inning yesterday having thrown 98 pitches. There were two men on and two outs in the inning, and the Orioles held a 6-3 lead. Inexplicably, Dave Trembley let Bergesen hit; Bergesen grounded out and the rally was snuffed out. In the bottom of the inning, Bergesen gave up a single, a triple and a single and was pulled from the game.

What the hell was Trembley thinking? Yes, I realize the bullpen was shortstaffed thanks to Koji's elbow soreness. But this is why they carry two long men! Berken was unavailable after Brian Matusz's short outing on Thursday, but Mark Hendrickson hadn't pitched since taking David Hernandez's turn on May 16. It is simply inexcusable that Trembley would allow his struggling starter to bat in that situation in the 6th inning and then immediately turn to that very same long man just 3 batters later.

Which is why I'm flabbergasted that the O's MLB.com beat writer penned this: "Was it the right move? No. But it was his only move." False. Mark Hendrickson has a spot on this roster for this exact situation. Pinch hitting for Bergesen and going to your long man is not only the right move, it is the only move. What game was she watching?

On another note, if Koji had elbow soreness that originated during his outing in Texas, what the hell was the team doing adding another bench player instead of a pitcher when they called up Scott Moore on Friday? I understand if you don't want Alberto Castillo in the 'pen, but does it really make sense to go shorthanded, especially after Matusz only lasted 2.1 IP on Thursday and Hernandez and Bergesen are the next two starting pitchers?

This season has become an unmitigated disaster. Between the Garrett Atkins signing, the fiasco of Mike Gonzalez's injury, Brian Roberts being pushed to come back quickly from his back injury, Matt Wieters never getting a day off, a plethora of ridiculous bullpen decisions, and the complete and utter failure of the young hitting to make progress, it's time for change. Dave Trembley needs to go. Now. And that he isn't is another strike against Andy MacPhail. I've been patient, realizing that rebuilding from within takes time. The young pitching is oh-so-very-close to making a real impact. But the rest of the club? Wow. They can't hit, they can't play defense, and the coaching staff doesn't seem equipped to help them improve. What are you waiting for, Andy? This is unacceptable.

David Hernandez and The Rotation

2010-05-22T10:03:00.000-04:00

With Chris Tillman (3.43 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 1.86 BB/9) and Jake Arrieta (3.87 FIP, 7.47 K/9, 4.58 BB/9) both pitching well in Norfolk and David Hernandez (42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 1.58 WHIP - virtually identical to the numbers he posted last season) again struggling in Baltimore, speculation is understandably ripe that one of the hot young arms will soon usurp Hernandez's spot in the rotation. Fortunately for Hernandez, he "saved" his rotation spot last night by throwing 105 pitches (59 for strikes) across 5.1 IP, allowing one hit and one run while striking out three and walking five. Huh? That's the performance that saved his rotation spot?

Let's do a thought experiment. Suppose you are Andy MacPhail and you truly believe that either Arrieta or Tillman (it doesn't matter which, or if it is both) is just biding his time in Norfolk waiting for one of the five starters for the O's to pitch his way out of the rotation. The fifth starter you selected on the basis of a very strong spring training has really struggled, and he's now 150 innings into his Major League career and has yet to show that he's more than a useful arm for the bullpen or a spot starter, an opinion held by many scouts throughout the player's minor league career. Now, this fifth starter just had an outing remarkably similar to the ones he's had the rest of the season: he struggled to throw strikes, he gave up nearly twice as many fly balls as ground balls, and he didn't strike many batters out. Are you going to change your opinion of him on the basis of his most recent outing?

I would like to see either Tillman or Arrieta as much as the next O's fan, and I still think that David Hernandez could have a solid career as a bullpen arm. However, there are very good reasons for both Tillman and Arrieta to spend a bit more time in Norfolk. Tillman has added a new pitch to his repertoire this spring, and Arrieta is clearly walking too many people. For both, service time and arbitration eligibility could potentially be deciding factors, but I personally wouldn't worry too much about that for young pitchers (the risk of injury is too great, and current research is having a difficult time finding a reliable aging curve for pitchers; better to have Major League ready arms pitching in the Major Leagues).

One day in the coming weeks, Hernandez is likely to relinquish his rotation spot and O's fans will get to see another one of the arms of the future. In the meantime, though, let's not kid ourselves that 5.1 mediocre innings have a meaningful impact on when that day will be.

Garrett Atkins Bashing

2010-05-21T13:11:00.000-04:00

Sure, I'll pile on.

1) Orioles firstbasemen have combined to hit zero home runs and post a slash line of .224/.267/.295.
2) Atkins has a 49 OPS+. I feel obligated to point out again that he plays first base.
3) From Sports Illustrated's Power Rankings: "Garret [sic] Atkins has played 32 games and logged 115 plate appearances but scored only four runs. The major-league average is to score one run every 8.6 plate appearances; Atkins is averaging one run every 28.8."
4) This was entirely predictable. Look at his wOBA progression:

5) Atkins is making $4.5 million dollars for his efforts. Worst. Signing. Ever. Time to cut bait, Andy.

Garrett Can't Find Consistency?

2010-05-18T08:01:00.000-04:00

Orioles.com tells me that Atkins is struggling to find consistency at the plate.

Funny, I'd take some inconsistency from Atkins. Since that means he might actually have a good game everyone once in a while.

Terry Crowley, OBP, and Home Runs

2010-05-17T11:42:00.001-04:00

Among the many things that have gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Orioles this spring, one of the most disappointing has been the dismal performance of the offense. Understandably, many are calling for change at the position of hitting coach. Kevin Cowherd somehow "doesn't get it," and Dave Mc responds:

When [Crowley] took over as hitting coach before the 1999 season, it was a different era. Without making judgments, lets just say it was an era in which power was the dominant aspect of offense...

It seems more likely that Crowley is still employing the same hitting philosophies that worked a decade ago.

Just one problem: the Orioles don't hit with power! In fact, I think you can make a pretty good case that Crowley's philosophies have actually stunted power development from a number of Orioles young hitters. Let's look at some numbers.

1) Nick Markakis hit 23 homers as a 23-year old in 2007. He then hit 20 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and has just two this season.
2) Matt Wieters hit a home run once every 18 at-bats in the minors. He has hit a homer once every 37 at-bats in the majors.
3) Adam Jones goes deep about once every 36 at-bats for the Orioles. In his final two AAA seasons (at ages 20 and 21), he homered every 21.5 at-bats.

To be fair, the Orioles haven't had a lot of highly touted prospects over the last decade, but a few other young hitters that have failed to develop on Crowley's watch include Ryan Minor, Larry Bigbie, Jerry Hairston, and Gary Matthews, Jr. About the only successes we can really count are Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis and (gulp) Jay Gibbons.

This team's (lack of a good) hitting approach drives me absolutely nuts; just give me quality at-bats, swings at pitches in the strike zone, and the indication that hitters have some idea of what they're doing when they go to plate. Instead, I get to watch Tejada ground into double plays on the first pitch, Cesar Izturis waive his wet noodle, and Garrett Atkins look mind-numbingly older than 30. Now, not all of that is the hitting coach's doing. Tejada has always been hacktastic, Izturis an awful hitter, and I'm pretty sure Garrett Atkins is finished as a Major League ballplayer. No, what really makes me mad is when I see no progress from Adam Jones or Matt Wieters, or when I read stories in the Sun hinting that Nick Markakis needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Maybe Crowley really is doing a great job, and without his tutelage the O's offense would be even worse. Maybe firing the hitting coach would be a symbolic gesture that wouldn't have any effect on the offense. Or maybe Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold need a fresh voice in order to get their careers back on track. In the wake of such a disappointing start and regression from so many of the highly touted hitters, I hope the organization is taking a hard look at the coaching staff. Because I don't think this one is capable of effecting any on-field improvement.

Relief Pitching

2010-05-16T09:40:00.000-04:00

After last night's meltdown, I went looking at some Oriole relief pitching stats and came across this gem: during 22.2 IP in the 9th inning, Oriole pitchers have allowed a .340/.431/.505 line and a 7.15 ERA. Yikes.

Miguel Tejada: Clutch Hitter?

2010-05-15T08:59:00.000-04:00

Over at the Orioles Insider blog today, a post from Dan Connolly appears with the headline "No question, Miggi is clutch". Certainly, Tejada's two run, bases loaded single last night was a clutch hit. But is Miguel Tejada clutch? Let's look at some numbers. Remember, tOPS+ is a statistic that adjusts a particular split stat to compare it to a player's career or season total.

Tejada, Career: .289/.341/.469
Tejada, Career, RISP: .296/.354/.475, 105 tOPS+

So Tejada performs about 5% better than his career norm with runners in scoring position, mostly thanks to a better on-base percentage. Sounds clutch, right? Not so fast. How do ALL batters perform with runners in scoring position?

League Average, 2010: .256/.330/.403
League Average, 2010, RISP: .254/.348/.391, 102 tOPS+

So ALL batters improve by about 2% with runners in scoring position in 2010 (and this what happens nearly every season), mainly because pitchers throw from the stretch (there are probably effects from defensive positioning as well). Is Tejada's difference significant? Maybe (I don't have the time this morning to make sure I'm doing the math correctly).

Here is the link to his "Clutch" table at baseball-reference.com. Looks to me like he performs in the clutch almost identically to the way we'd expect any hitter of his caliber.

Now, Tejada DOES have much better numbers in "High Leverage" situations (119 tOPS+), so I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the claim that Tejada have some sort of ability to raise his game in the clutch. But I DO think the burden is on those who claim Tejada has superior clutch skills to cite more than his batting average with RISP in 2010 and tell an anecdote about how Tejada wants to be at the plate with the game on the line.

Shutdown Sauce

2010-05-14T08:55:00.001-04:00

Closers need nicknames. I don't think that is disputable. And Alfredo Simon, since he's taken the job and run with it in the last few weeks, is no different. Daniel Moroz of camdencrazies.com has coined a fun one: Shutdown Sauce. There's just one thing missing: t-shirts! A colleague and I took the liberty of mocking a few up yesterday.

First up, the traditional baseball shirt look, complete with "Alfredo" in Orioles-esque lettering and "Shutdown Sauce 55" on the back (name and number the same for all).

Next, a similar look, but the Orioles-orange t-shirt.

And in black, with a bowl of noodles.

Who will be the first one to wear one of these to Camden Yards?

Andy MacPhail Video Message

2010-05-13T22:41:00.000-04:00

While watching the Cavs get run out of the gym by the Celtics, I was clearing out the ol' inbox and watched Andy MacPhail's video message for O's fans. He provides a very fair, realistic, and balanced assessment of the team's strengths and weaknesses in the early going. While the early 2010 returns have understandably left me questioning my own faith in the rebuilding program, I am pleased that MacPhail is willing to discuss all of this club's shortcomings frankly and openly. It makes me wish even more that I had been able to attend the Baseball Prospectus event earlier this season.

Speed

2010-05-13T12:51:00.000-04:00

Corey Patterson's speed is gamechanging. Or so I'm told:

Having a speed factor in Corey Patterson is a welcome change for an Orioles squad struggling to make do without Brian Roberts. Patterson's ability to steal bases should help the double play that the Orioles constantly find themselves on the wrong end of as well.

I agree entirely that Patterson's presence will help the O's avoid double plays. Without anyone on base, all those ground balls to the middle infielders will only count for one out.

Corey Patterson Update

2010-05-12T10:35:00.000-04:00

Well, it looks like CP is on his way. The only question is who goes and who stays: Lou Montanez or Nolan Reimold?

Montanez is, at very best, a 4th outfielder. He doesn't play exceptionally good defense, he doesn't hit very well, and he's not very versatile. Other than that, he brings lots of value. Roster-wise, it makes the most sense to send him back to Norfolk for Patterson (who at least is capable of playing solid defense at all three outfield positions).

Reimold, though, is really struggling. He's hitting just .205/.302/.337, and he has made several defensive miscues in the past few games. However, he has hit safely in five out of his last six games and he remains one of the few players willing to accept a base on balls (walk rate: 11.5%; Reimold, Markakis, Scott and Wieters are the only regulars with a walk rate above 8.0%). Assuming that he's healthy (a big assumption), Reimold needs to continue to play every day. His track record suggests that he is a much better hitter than he's currently showing, and he will likely turn things around eventually.

Thus, the question becomes what the team plans to do with Patterson once he arrives: will he platoon in left field with Reimold? Will he get nearly all the left field at-bats, at least in the near term? Or is he up just to provide some more bench value than Montanez? If Reimold won't be getting regular playing time, I'd prefer that he head back to Norfolk to work through his funk. While he's there, I'd love for him to break out that first baseman's mitt again, too. I'm not sure who started the meme that Reimold really is better than Pie in left, but that is clearly not true. If he's going back to Norfolk, he might as well learn a new position while he's there. And maybe, just maybe, when he comes back up he can replace Garrett Atkins.

The Orioles and Sabermetrics

2010-05-11T12:48:00.000-04:00

Sparked by a comment about Reggie Jackson's one season in Baltimore, I was surfing Baseball-Reference.com today and clicked on Ken Singleton. I was amazed.

Singleton's career spanned 15 seasons, from 1970 to 1984, the final 10 of which he spent in an Orioles uniform (note: I was born in 1981, so I can't really remember his career). After playing his first two seasons with the Mets, he was traded to the Expos for Rusty Staub. In Montreal, he had three very good seasons, including a monster 1973 campaign where he led the league in on-base percentage, hit 23 homers and drove in 103 runs. A "disappointing" 1975 season (he only hit 9 homers en route to a 110 OPS+) led the Expos to trade Singleton to the O's for a 31-year old Dave McNally (who would pitch 77.1 innings in 1975 and then retire), Rich Coggins (a speedy outfielder who peaked in 1973 at age 22), and AAA pitcher Bill Kirkpatrick (who would never reach the Majors).

In his first seven seasons with the O's, Singleton was among the very best players in the American League. He hit .298/.403/.471, numbers good enough for a 149 OPS+ (interestingly, his slash line an awful lot like another underappreciated Orioles rightfielder), but he only managed to make three All-Star teams. He was 2nd in the MVP balloting in 1979 (35 homers and 111 RBI, but Don Baylor, who hit behind Rod Carew's .419 OBP, drove in 139) and 3rd in 1977 (when Carew hit .388 and posted a 178 OPS+). All told, Singleton finished his career with a .282/.388/.436 line, good enough for a 132 OPS+ (remember, the 1970s favored pitchers, generally, and Memorial Stadium favored pitchers, specifically).

Shockingly, Ken Singleton did not receive a single vote for the Hall of Fame in 1990. Not. A. Single. Vote. And why not? Because he didn't hit home runs or accumulate big RBI totals. Jim Rice, career OPS+ 128, is in the Hall of Fame, yet a reasonable case can be made that Singleton was actually a better player than Rice. So what's my point?

Orioles fans grew up on sabermetrics; we just didn't realize it. Ken Singleton is exactly the type of player saberists love but who goes underappreciated: he doesn't hit tons of homers or put up big RBI totals, but he gets on base a ton. Earl Weaver understood this, which is why Baltimore was the perfect fit for Singleton. And it's also what makes Baltimore fans so frustrated with this year's team.

Miguel Tejada racks up gaudy RBI totals (or, at least he did in a previous life), but only gets on base 34% of the time. Adam Jones swings at everything. The manager fails to put relievers in a position to succeed. The defense is awful. Outfielders throw to the wrong base. I can go on and on.

The Oriole Way was the original sabermetrics way: pitching, fundamentals, and the 3-run homer. I hope the O's figure out a way to bring it back someday.

Josh Bell

2010-05-10T13:41:00.000-04:00

O's SweetSpot blogger Dave Mc asks an interesting question today:

Imagine that Bell stays hot as Las Vegas summer for the next six weeks. He plays good defense and hits lefties well enough. He is pounding on the door of the majors. Would the Orioles promote him? I'm not so sure because I'm not sure where Bell would fit defensively.

Dave's reasoning is that the club would be hesitant to move Miguel Tejada--admittedly one of the O's only bright spots on offense thus far--off third base and also wouldn't want to shift Bell to DH, first base or the outfield. It's an interesting conundrum, but one that I think makes the mistake of overvaluing a few more wins in 2010. Personally, if the hypothetical Dave posits comes true, I don't think MacPhail will hesitate to promote Bell. If Tejada, who was signed specifically to be a one-year stopgap, is playing well, he could be traded to a contender looking for some help at third base (perhaps Anaheim, Minnesota or Detroit) or be moved to first base, where the O's don't exactly have a plethora of quality hitters. In any case, this would be a happy problem for several reasons.

First of all, it is far from clear that Bell can handle third base defensively. While errors are not a perfect (or even good) measure of defensive ability, Bell certainly makes a lot of them. There have also been questions about his atheticism, which of course leads to speculation that his ultimate position will be first base.

Mostly, though, Bell is currently half of a hitter. He shows good pop and plate discipline from the left side (.303/.371/.514 in his minor league career and .291/.330/.524 this season), but he is Cesar Izturis with a few more walks from the right (.237/.319/.355). That's a huge split and one that isn't likely to close in just a couple of AAA months. Rather, it wouldn't surprise me if the Orioles have Bell give up switch hitting. In that case, he would clearly need a few more months in Norfolk to accumulate at-bats against lefthanders.*

*Assuming there are any left-handers to hit against. No one on the Tides has more than about a dozen at-bats against left-handers. Are there no left-handed pitchers in the International League? How can I sign up for some of that?

But this actually brings up another reason that MacPhail would go ahead and promote Bell to Baltimore: he could platoon with Tejada. Bell could play third base against right-handers, with Miggy manning the hot corner against lefties. This would likely push Luke Scott out of the DH role (which Tejada would assume against righties), but considering that he's struck out in roughly 127% of hit at-bats this season, that would actually be a good thing.

The lesson? MacPhail will stick to the plan. If the O's had busted out of the gate with a surprising start (like say, the Blue Jays), maybe things would be different. Instead, the Orioles have the "luxury" of focusing only on 2011.

Corey Patterson

2010-05-10T11:46:00.000-04:00

Just in case you haven't been paying attention, the Orioles are bad at scoring runs. Their 107 runs scored (3.34 runs/game) rank ahead of only the lowly Astros, Mariners and Indians, while their .305 team on-base percentage bests only the Astros. Four players are pulling their weight offensively: Ty Wigginton (a shocking 169 OPS+), Nick Markakis (131), Matt Wieters (110), and Miguel Tejada (109). The other regulars rank somewhere from really bad (Reimold, 76) to awful (Luke Scott, 72, and Adam Jones, 65) to execrable (Garrett Atkins, 57, and Cesar Izuturis, 43). Unsurprisingly, Andy MacPhail isn't happy, and changes might be on the way.

There has been a strong movement over at the Sun blog and on Twitter to bring up Corey Patterson. After all, he's hitting .367 in Norfolk, and the O's could sure use some offense, right? The problem, of course, is that Corey Patterson can't provide any offense. In his career, he has a .290 OBP. Bad as he has been, Nolan Reimold has a .304 OBP this season, and even Adam Jones isn't that much lower (.257). Yes, Patterson plays a good defensive outfield, and thus he makes more sense as a fourth outfielder than Lou Montanez; we all saw his center field "skills" on display in New York last week. But the notion that Patterson will fix what ails the O's offense is misguided at best and delusional at worst.

Fortunately, Jeff Zrebiec clarified his stance today (emphasis mine):

I think he’d be a good addition to the Orioles’ bench because of his defensive abilities and what he brings with his speed/bunting ability, etc. But all the talk about Patterson coming up and being a huge part of an offensive turnaround is a little much. Patterson has been in six different organizations since 2005, and this is his second go-around with the Orioles. He is a career .252 hitter with a career .290 on-base percentage.

The impetus for all this backseat general managing was an article that appeared last week in which Andy MacPhail put the O's hitters "on notice." I think (hope) that MacPhail knows there really isn't anyone better in Norfolk; Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder have both struggled this spring, and we just discussed the (de)merits of Corey Patterson. Rather, MacPhail is rightly placing the emphasis on performance. Reimold and Jones are likely better hitters than they have shown so far this season, but with no one pushing them from behind, they haven't lost any playing time. If bringing up Corey Patterson and sending either Reimold and/or Jones to AAA for some low pressure at-bats is what the club thinks is best for their long-term development, do it. Just so long as we're clear that Corey Patterson isn't going to help the O's win any more games in 2010 than either of those guys. No matter what the stated goal was prior to the season, the Orioles have to be squarely focused on getting Reimold and Jones back on track to be valuable contributors for the future.

Strength of Schedule

2010-05-07T14:35:00.001-04:00

Early in the 2010 season, the Orioles have played a very difficult schedule. They have faced the Rays (21-7) six times, the Blue Jays (17-13) three times, the A's (15-14) four times, the Mariners three times (11-17), the Red Sox six times (15-14), the Yankees six times (19-8) and the Twins once (19-10). Even if you take the Orioles games out of those records, only the Mariners (8-17) and A's (12-13) are teams playing below .500 against the rest of baseball. Anecdotally, it also seems as if the Orioles have faced exceptionally good starting pitchers almost every night. Does the data support that perception? In a word, yes.

Opponents' starters have absolutely dominated the Orioles this season. In 29 games, starting pitchers have thrown an average of nearly 6 2/3 IP per start, allowing just 7.8 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 6.3 K/9 on their way to a 2.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. In other words, the Orioles offense has turned every opposing pitcher into one that would rank T9 in the American League in ERA. Who would that pitcher be tied with? Zack Greinke. You'll also notice from that list several pitchers that have made multiple starts against the Orioles, including A.J. Burnett (5), Matt Garza (7), Jeff Niemann (8), and C.C. Sabathia (11).

Taken in aggregate, starting pitchers in the American League have pitched 2,217.1 innings against non-Orioles offenses with a 4.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Combined (including double counting all pitchers that have made multiple starts against the Orioles), the starter's the Orioles have faced have a 3.68 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 762.1 IP against non-Orioles opponents. So, yes, the starter pitchers the Orioles have faced this season are significantly better than league average.

Offensive Disappointments

2010-05-07T10:01:00.000-04:00

Dan Connolly asked yesterday "which Orioles hitter has disappointed you most?" He lists lots of candidates: Luke Scott, Garrett Atkins, Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Cesar Izturis, and... Nick Markakis. And one person picked Markakis! How is this possible? Markakis is currently hitting .312/.411/.486, numbers which are a career high in batting average, on-base percentage and just .005 shy of a career high in slugging percentage. He has 11 doubles, good for third in the American League. If you are disappointed in Markakis, it is because he only has 9 RBI. But it's kind of hard to get any RBI when you're hitting behind a lead-off batter posting a .242 on-base percentage. Which, of course, means that Adam Jones and his 3 walks in 128 plate appearances is the easy answer for most disappointing hitter.

Orioles Offense Fail

2010-05-05T13:59:00.000-04:00

Is this the worst line-up a team has put on the field all season?

Julio Lugo (SS) .125/.176/.125
Ty Wigginton (2B) .295/.391/.654
Nick Markakis (RF) .314/.413/.500
Miguel Tejada (3B) .311/.357/.500
Garrett Atkins (1B) .270/.289/.338
Matt Wieters (DH) .277/.340/.744
Nolan Reimold (LF) .179/.282/.299
Craig Tatum (CA) .100/.100/.100
Lou Montanez (CF) .129/.156/.129

There are four hitters with an OPS+ above 75 in the lineup (Wigginton 179, Markakis 148, Tejada 131, and Wieters 102). Five guys have OBPs below .300. The clean-up hitter has a .338 slugging percentage. And the worst part? It's not even good defensively.

Jeremy Guthrie vs. The Yankees

2010-04-30T14:15:00.001-04:00

As I'm sure we're all aware, Jeremy Guthrie has plunked a few Yankees this season. He hit Mark Teixeira in spring training, and then drilled Jorge Posada on Wednesday. Joe Girardi was not a happy man:

"I don’t think he’s doing it on purpose, but he hits a lot of people,” Girardi said. “That’s frustrating for us. We know he’s going to pitch inside and I don’t have a problem with that. What do you expect, me to be happy that our guys are getting plunked? I’m frustrated by it. I wish he had better command in there."

Actually, it seems to me like he's hitting his spots quite well, thank you very much. Here is Guthrie's hit by pitch per game, broken down by team, courtesy of a Yankee fan coworker:

That tall line in the middle? Yep, that's the Yankees. Guthrie is hitting Yankees at twice the rate he hits any other single opponent. I don't know exactly what they did to make him mad, but he apparently didn't like it.

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The Bullpen

2010-04-26T14:16:00.000-04:00

With good reason, the Orioles bullpen has been the target of much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the early going. So imagine my surprise today when I checked the pitching splits page at baseball-reference.com and saw that Orioles relievers (4.70) have a lower ERA than do Orioles starters (4.75)! How is this possible? There are two big reasons:

1) Brad Bergesen. He's made three starts, combining for 10.1 IP and a 12.19 ERA. Strip out those three starts and the rest of the O's starters have a 3.97 ERA over 99.2 IP, which is not too shabby at all.
2) Inherited runners. As of April 26, O's starters have passed off 16 baserunners to the bullpen. Nine of them have scored. The league average rate for inherited runners scored is 34% (across all situations; it is possible that O's starters have biased their inherited runners toward high run expectancy situations like second and third with no outs). If O's relievers could acheive that league-average percentage, the starters would have been charged with 4 or 5 fewer runs, bringing their collective ERA to 4.34 or 4.42. Control for Bergesen (who, ironically, has only had 1 of his 3 bequeathed runners score) and the top four O's starters have an ERA in the 3.60 range.

As for the more skill-dependent numbers, Orioles starters are performing better than their relief counterparts there, too:

K/BB ratio: 2.40 for O's starters, 1.85 for O's relievers
HR/9: 0.90 for O's starters, 1.17 for O's relievers

So, yes, the Orioles rotation has been much better than the bullpen, especially when you look at the numbers without Brad Bergesen. With the offense finally scoring a few runs this weekend, the bullpen needs to start pulling its weight to get the O's a few more wins.
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Roster Moves

2010-04-24T12:35:00.000-04:00

Could the end of the Garrett Atkins era be near? The Orioles have recalled 1B/OF Rhyne Hughes from Norfolk today, but the move has not yet been made official so we don't know who will be leaving the 25-man roster. Speculation has initially focused on Alberto Castillo, Justin Turner or Julio Lugo, and each makes some sense. Castillo is the last man up in a larger-than usual bullpen (and I assume he can be optioned), Turner can be optioned, and Lugo is... well, Julio Lugo. But I'll suggest three other candidates:

1) Garrett Atkins - He's awful. In 60 plate appearances, he's walked twice and struck out 12 times. Plus, Hughes plays his position. He gets my vote.
2) Jason Berken - Berken has actually thrown well, but he, too, can be optioned. The O's may not need/want an extra long man right now.
3) Will Ohman - Again, the O's have an extra pitcher in the bullpen right now, and Ohman can't seem to throw strikes. Which, of course, he couldn't do last year, either. If he's not the guy today, he'd be my choice to go when the O's make a move for a 5th starter next week.

The moral of the story? It's probably not a good sign if your team is making a roster move and there are six legitimate candidates to be optioned or released.
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The Orioles

2010-04-19T10:27:00.000-04:00

Joe Posnanski is one of the best sportswriters around today:

The first Orioles game I ever attended was in 1990 at Memorial Stadium. It’s one of my favorite ever baseball experiences. The Orioles were already lousy then, but there was still the whiff of the great Baltimore teams in the air — Cal Ripken was at shortstop every game, Frank Robinson was managing the team, and you could park in front of somebody’s house (for a small fee) and walk through a neighborhood to get to the ballpark.

Baltimore represented just about everything I knew that was good about baseball — growing up in Cleveland, where the team constantly did everything wrong, the Orioles were like a team from another planet. From 1970-85, they had the best record in baseball. They pitched great, and they played great defense, and they hit the three-run homer, and they ran the bases beautifully. The biggest dream I could come up with as a young journalist — this is absolutely true — was to be a sports columnist for the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles, I know, were the big reason for that.

A few years later, I saw the Orioles play at Camden Yards. And it was beautiful … but different. I loved the park. I thought it was spectacular, and I found it amazing that such a new place could feel old, could feel like a part of Baltimore baseball tradition. The Orioles were pretty good then too; the ballpark was a money-printing machine and those were the years when they tried to match payrolls with the New York Yankees. They reached the championship series in 1996 and ‘97. But the Orioles could not sustain it.

This year, they drew fewer than 10,000 fans for just their fourth home game of the season — a 5-1 loss to Tampa. They were about 14,000 the next game and just a few more than 10,000 the following. The Orioles lost both of those too. You can’t blame the fans, not after 12 consecutive losing seasons, not with the team stuck in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox and even the Tampa Bay Rays (who play, God bless ‘em, quite a lot like those classic Orioles teams used to play). No, you can’t blame anyone, but it’s sad to watch a great baseball town lose heart.

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Frustration

2010-04-16T14:22:00.000-04:00

I'm betting this next statement won't come as a complete surprise, especially if you've been following @theorioleway on Twitter: I'm frustrated. A 1-9 start to the season is never a good thing, but especially not so when a team's next 22 games are three more in Oakland, at Seattle, at Boston, home against the Yankees and BoSox, at the Yankees and at the Twins. Those are all legitimate playoff contenders; a truly scary record on the order of 7-24 (or worse) is a very realistic possibility.

Losses happen. Teams go through rough patches. It's early. I get it. But it's not so much the losing that has me frustrated, but the way the club is losing. Let's make a list:

1) The Orioles are an incredible 10-for-70 with runners in scoring position. That's a .143 batting average.
2) Orioles hitters are seeing just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance, 28th in baseball (3.87 is average).
3) The relief pitching has been brutal, especially late in games: in innings 7-9, the staff as a whole is allowing an eye-popping .313/.375/.565 line.
4) The defense is once again shoddy: the O's .664 defensive efficiency rating ranks 26th in the Majors.
5) The club has wasted several excellent starting pitching outings.
6) Injuries to Brian Roberts, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold have hurt both the offense and the defense.
7) Garret Atkins is batting .222/.243/.333; Miguel Tejada, .205/.279/.410.

So other than a good offensive approach, clutch hitting, pitching, and defense, things are going swimmingly.

Eventually, someone will get a hit with runners in scoring position (please?). But those other items have the potential to be glaring trends for 2010. Tejada, Izturis, Atkins and others are pretty hacktastic. Especially with the injury/ineffectiveness concerns with Mike Gonzalez, this bullpen is not very (ok, any) good. While the outfield defense might be acceptable or even good, any infield that has Tejada, Wigginton and Atkins "flashing" the leather isn't going to turn many hits into outs. And injuries have played an important part in past late season collapses; with Roberts and Pie both hurting and Reimold still recovering from offseason surgery, do the O's have a training staff capable of getting them back on the field and healthy?

Now that we've got the pessimism out of the way, are there any positives we can take from the early going? Unequivocally, yes. As always, caveat emptor on the sample size.

1) Brian Matusz is going to be a stud. I am 100% convinced. I may not be convinced that the Orioles shouldn't have drafted Justin Smoak instead, but I am really, really excited for the Brian Matusz era.
2) Millwood and Guthrie have both been effective in the early going.
3) Matt Wieters and Felix Pie have been the team's best hitters. Wieters I fully expected, but we have to be thrilled that Pie has maintained the progress he made late last season.
4) Nick Markakis has is walking again. After walking in 14.2% of his plate appearances in 2008, he took a free pass just 7.9% of the time in 2009. In 2010, he's back up to 22.7%. He's currently suffering from a .259 BAbip (career: .327). His line drive percentage (14.7%) may look low, but with only 27 balls in play (33 at-bats minus 7 strikeouts + 1 sac fly), he's only missing one liner from his career rate (4/27 = 15%, 5/27 = 18.5%). If we normalize his BAbip, he'd be hitting .273 and no one would be worried.

See, things aren't so bad, right?

Last season, I set three goals for the 2009 Orioles:

What would make this a successful season? I think three things:

1) Matt Wieters establishes himself as an offensive force behind the plate.
2) Felix Pie and Adam Jones show that they are long-term solutions in the outfield.
3) The young pitching does not suffer any significant development set-backs.

Results were mixed on the first two, but the third was undoubtedly achieved. Since it looks like we're in for a really long year in the loss column, what will make the 2010 Orioles a success?

1) Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton, Troy Patton, Jake Arrietta. Stay healthy. Keep improving.
2) The young core group of hitters keeps improving: are Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold the middle of a championship caliber line-up (and I think they can be)? Is Felix Pie* really breaking out? Can Josh Bell and/or Brandon Snyder take over a corner?
3) Continue to infuse the organization with young talent. This might mean trading Kevin Millwood or Jeremy Guthrie, and it definitely means using the #3 pick in the upcoming draft to take an impact player.

*Since I have completely neglected my blogging duties lately, I'm just now getting a chance to comment on Pie's thrilling score from first on a single during the home opener. I was sitting high along the first base line and had the perfect view of the play. He was dead in the water (I believe my exact words as he was rounding third base were "He's out by a mile") with a perfect throw, but as we know, perfection is difficult. Great hustle, and I love the gutsy call by Juan Samuel. I can't find it right now, but I think I remember seeing research that shows 3B coaches as way too conservative, so I love the aggressiveness.

If those first two goals are met, I think the wins will be there by the end of the season, especially if the offense comes around. Not all of those young pitchers need to get starts in Baltimore this year; breaking them into the big leagues as relievers is perfectly acceptable. We also need to be prepared to deal veterans like Guthrie, Millwood, Tejada and Luke Scott at the cost of a few wins in August and September. While I think the chance for a surprisingly good outcome still exists, a slow start really steepens the climb. 2011 and 2012 are still the goal.

Finally, one last word on Dave Trembley: things are getting ugly. This from Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

Since I spent the last few days in the Baltimore/DC area, catching three games at Camden Yards, forgive me if I'm a bit more concerned with the O's than most. (Given the crowds over the three-game sweep, I might be one of very few.) It's flat out a mess in the O's bullpen right now, and it seems like Dave Trembley has lost them, if not the whole clubhouse. The tension is palpable there, and many think that Trembley might not be long for the job. His handling of the Gonzalez situation, throwing him under the bus so quickly and then questioning his DL move, is a real puzzler. Gonzalez's "mechanical work" is something that could have been taken care of in camp if Trembley's handling of the vets in camp hadn't been so lax. Now that they need to DL him, the shoulder strain is enough to pass muster and fill in the slot after Trembley burned through the pen willy-nilly. It's one thing to lose a closer, and another thing to completely lose touch with a pen's strengths and weaknesses. Gonzalez's stint likely won't be too long. He was scheduled to come back to the pen early next week after working on the side, so assume that it should be about the minimum. If there's any positive, it's that Uehara is throwing and looking like he'll be ready to get back to the pen by late April. His presence could work a lot of ways. He could be a smoothing option for the long role or slot into the closer role, since Trembley seems to have more confidence in him than Gonzalez.

I think my feelings about Dave Trembley have been made pretty clear: he can't handle a bullpen, he can't fill out a lineup card, and he hasn't (for whatever reason) been able to get this team to play solid, fundamentally sound baseball. If he's starting to lose the clubhouse (and, as outsiders, we have no idea if this is the case), the best thing to do will be to get rid of him as quickly as possible. I don't mean to make him a scapegoat for all that's wrong with the Orioles; he's been a good soldier and says (almost) all the right things. But I don't think he is a good manager.
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Opening Day

2010-04-09T09:18:00.002-04:00

Though we might not have the mid-June-esque weather of the past few days, today really feels like baseball season. Or at least it will once I head out from the office for today's game!

As I'm sure you've figured out, I'm really interested in line-up construction, and it seems I'm not alone: the Pirates are using a "non-traditional" line-up this season. Forearm smash: The Book blog.
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Opening Day

2010-04-07T07:21:00.003-04:00

Rumor has it that there was an Orioles game yesterday. I prefer not to acknowledge that the season has begun until we get a home opener, but last night's events have forced my hand. Without further ado, let's overreact!

The Good
Adam Jones is good. Enjoy video evidence here.
So is Matt Wieters. I love the reaction of the fan who foolishly tries to barehand a missile.
Nick Markakis has a pretty solid arm.

The Bad
Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins combined to go 1-for-9 with a GIDP. Why do I get the feeling I will be repeating that sentence all too frequently?

The Ugly
Mike Gonzalez, welcome to the Orioles bullpen! I know it's one game, but I still can't help but think it's really, really foolish to spend big money on the bullpen.

The Jury's Still Out
It sure looks to me like Felix Pie deserves to play. And that Luke Scott deserves to play. And that Nolan Reimold deserves to play. How will Dave Trembley handle the time share? My vote is for more of this.

Today is a new day. Let's hope the club can get a win!
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Playing Time Forecast

2010-04-01T09:14:00.007-04:00

Enter your Orioles playing time forecasts here. Suffice to say, the fans have lived up to the charges of optimism bias: 1,587 innings pitched (162 x 9 = 1,458) and 1,800 batter games played are predicted for the Orioles.. The pitching forecast ranks 13th, above the 1,571 IP average, while the hitting forecast is 15th, just above the 1,787 game average. Only one team, the Cardinals, comes in below the 1,458 inning number. Pirates fans are the most optimistic, scoring 55 OptiPoints on my proprietary scale [31 minus Rank(PA) plus 31 minus Rank (IP)]. The Orioles are 8th, scoring 39 OptiPoints. There is no correlation (R^2 = 0.001) between hitting and pitching optimism (Graph 1), nor between projected wins and OptiPoints (R^2 = 0.039).

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Baseball Prospectus at the Ballpark

2010-03-31T14:40:00.003-04:00

Baseball Prospectus will be hosting a Ballpark Event at Camden Yards on Monday, April 12. Tickets are just $25 (including your game ticket - this sounds like a fantastic deal), and the event will include none other than Andy MacPhail. I really wish I could go to the event and ask him questions about player valuation methodologies, lineup construction and the relationship between front office and field personnel, but alas, I will instead be studying International Economics around the corner. If you go, I'd love to have you write a guest post about the event.

Here are the details:

Monday, April 12, 5:15 PM at Camden Yards
BPro writers: Clay Davenport, John Perrotto, Will Carroll, Jay Jaffe, Steve Goldman, and more
Celebrity guests: O's President Andy MacPhail, Sirius/XM's Mike Ferrin
Tickets: $25, call Dan Stahl at 410-547-6239
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Lineup Analysis

2010-03-30T14:24:00.002-04:00

Yesterday's Orioles lineup seems to be more or less what the club is planning to roll out for Opening Day. How did Dave Trembley do?

The lineup, with CHONE projections for OBP and SLG:

1) Roberts .358/.427
2) Jones .349/.497
3) Markakis .373/.484
4) Tejada .330/.435
5) Scott .337/.471
6) Wieters .355/.460
7) Atkins .327/.412
8) Pie .332/.435
9) Izturis .301/.334

According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool, Trembley didn't do terribly, but there is room for improvement. This lineup projects for 5.133 runs per game, while the optimal lineup projects for 5.157, a difference of 3.888 runs over the course of a season: a bit less than half a win.

How can we reasonably improve the above lineup? Well, Roberts leading off and Cesar Izturis batting 9th are no brainers. Given what we saw for the importance of the number two slot in the lineup, we should also move Nick Markakis into the number two hole. The tool then likes some combination of Scott, Wieters and Jones in the numbers 3, 4 and 5 slots, with Tejada, Atkins and Pie rounding out the bottom half of the order. Since we want to break up lefties, let's put those six guys in this order: Wieters, Jones, Scott, Tejada, Atkins, Pie (feel free to swap Pie and Atkins if you would like). That lineup works out to 5.155 runs per game, tied for the fourth most optimal lineup. The moral of the story? Batting Tejada cleanup instead of further down in the order is likely to cost the Orioles somewhere between 3 and 5 runs this season. Keep that in mind when Jim Palmer extols the virtues of Tejada's proven run producing abilities right before another inning-ending double play.
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More on Tillman

2010-03-30T13:12:00.003-04:00

This tweet arrived on my BlackBerry this morning, and it gives an indication as to why Chris Tillman is headed for Norfolk instead of Baltimore next week: Tillman: "If I were 2 stick w/ my fastball, change, curve it woulda been a totally different outcome, results-wise." worked on cutter instead
Now, the immediate reaction might be to say "Well, that's dumb. If you want to make the team, you need to try and pitch your best." However, over the long run, Tillman is likely to be a better pitcher if he can master the cutter. Should a 22-year old prospect on a team staring up at what might well be the three best teams in baseball work on his cutter and risk starting the year in Norfolk, or should he try get outs any way possible? Yeah, I'm voting for the former. I hope the team has communicated to him, though, that his promotion depends not on "outcomes" but on his progression in mastering the cutter and the strike zone. We know that he can get AAA hitters out with his three traditional pitches, and if that's his focus in April, he'll likely do so again. Still, this is just another reason that we should all take spring training results and statistics with a giant mine of salt, and one more indication that his starting the year in Norfolk is far from the end of the world.
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Chris Tillman

2010-03-29T12:45:00.002-04:00

There has been a bit of a kerfuffle over the past few days as news broke that David Hernandez may break camp as the Orioles 5th starter while Chris Tillman begins 2010 in Norfolk. I have no problem with this. Here are some reasons, but they all surround two facts: David Hernandez will pitch 2010 at age 25; Tillman at age 22.

1) Tillman threw 161.2 IP across AAA and MLB last season after throwing 135.2 in AA in 2009. That's an increase of nearly 20%, and a corresponding increase for 2010 would bring Tillman to 193 IP. I sincerely doubt the Orioles will allow him so many innings; much more likely his target is 175 to 180 IP. Managing his ability to reach that target is much easier if he spends a few weeks in the minor leagues, where pushing his start back a day or lifting him in the sixth inning is much more justifiable.
2) Hernandez, by virtue of being older, will likely have a less stringent innings constraint. By virtue of passing the "injury nexus," the Orioles can push him a bit harder.
3) Since Hernandez is older, he also is more likely to be close to a finished product. If he pitches poorly as a starter this season, the Orioles can move him to the bullpen without wondering what might have been.
4) If Hernandez succeeds as a starter, then the Orioles have a further flexibility with Tillman. He could replace an injured or ineffective pitcher (and someone will get injured), he could piggyback with Matusz if necessary to manage workloads, or he could be used out of the bullpen.
5) If Hernandez does not succeed, then the original plan (Tillman in the rotation, Hernandez in the bullpen) can still easily be implemented.

While I'm obviously disappointed that Tillman has not pitched well enough this spring to win the job outright, I am far from lamenting this development. We all know that young pitchers do not develop in a straight line. That the Orioles can suffer a set-back and still have five viable starters is a big change from years past. That this is the debate we're having less than two weeks until Opening Day is a good sign.
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Lineup

2010-03-03T08:18:00.006-05:00

Spring Training games begin today! And that means we get our first Orioles lineup of the season. As just tweeted by MLB.com beat writer @Britt_Ghiroli, here's how the O's will look today (positions guesstimated for now):

CF Adam Jones
SS Cesar Izturis
RF Nick Markakis
3B Miguel Tejada
CA Matt Wieters
LF Luke Scott
1B Garrett Atkins
DH Josh Bell
2B Justin Turner

The Orioles are obviously without Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold as those two ease into spring training while recovering from injuries, but once those guys are back, what will the lineup look like for Opening Day? Most importantly, what should the lineup look like for Opening Day?

Let's make a few assumptions:
1) Reimold will start in left field
2) Atkins will start at first base
3) Scott will DH
3) Everyone is healthy

I've been reading The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by noted sabermetricians Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, and these guys have quite a bit to say about lineup optimization. Let's highlight their key point:

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

They draw several other optimization conclusions regarding speed, baserunning, and strikeouts, but the above rule of thumb should be simple enough that everyone can understand it. So, who are the Orioles best hitters? The diagram above shows each starter's projected wOBA according to CHONE.

Nick Markakis is the Orioles best hitter. We'll stick him in the #2 slot to get him the most at-bats. Next up is Adam Jones, who derives more of his value from power than OBP; sounds like a clean-up hitter to me. Reimold, Wieters, Scott, and Roberts are up next. Where should each fit? Here are the OBP and SLG projections for each:

Reimold: .355/.477
Wieters: .355/.460
Scott: .337/.471
Roberts: .358/.427

Since Roberts derives more of his value from his on-base abilities, we'll put him lead-off (and, also, I don't think it would be possible to convince Dave Trembley that he should bat anywhere else). Reimold and Wieters project pretty evenly, so we'll put Matt Wieters in the #3 hole since that has traditionally been the place managers slot their best hitter. Reimold gets penciled in at #5. Rounding out the lineup we'll just go straight down the list: Scott, Tejada, Atkins and Izturis. Here's what we have:

2B Brian Roberts (S)
RF Nick Markakis (L)
CA Matt Wieters (S)
CF Adam Jones (R)
LF Nolan Reimold (R)
DH Luke Scott (L)
3B Miguel Tejada (R)
1B Garrett Atkins (R)
SS Cesar Izturis (S)

According to the awesome lineup analysis tool at Baseball Musings, this lineup would be good for 5.239 runs per game (849 runs for the season). This may seem high, but keep in mind that this lineup wouldn't play together every day, and the expected performance of replacements would be lower. How does this compare to the optimal lineup (according the tool)? The optimal lineup would score 5.249 runs per, or 16 runs more over the course of the season, a difference of a win and a half. What's that optimal lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Atkins
Scott
Izturis

That's pretty close to the lineup we constructed above, and I'm pretty surprised that swapping Reimold and Jones and moving Scott from 6th to 8th makes that big of a difference.

Looking at the optimized lineups, comparing them to Trembley's creation, and drawing a few (perhaps hasty) conclusions, what can we say? I think we can make two: First and foremost, Dave Trembley does not understand the importance of the #2 slot in the lineup. Cesar Izturis batted second 28 times in 2009. TWENTY-EIGHT TIMES. He posted a .294 on-base percentage. He. Should. Not. Bat. Second. Ever. Even when Trembley got the top of the lineup right last season, he got the reason wrong. He would move Markakis and Jones to the second slot in order to protect them in the lineup, often when they were perceived to be struggling in the middle. In fact, he should have been moving the hot hand to the second slot (we won't get into streaks right now). Secondly, I think Trembley is overrating the "veteran presence" and "run producer" reputation Tejada brings to the middle of the order. Tejada accumulated RBIs in the past because he was a good hitter; he was not a good hitter because he had some special RBI generating power. I think his days as a good hitter are pretty much over, so he should be hitting lower in the order, letting Reimold and Wieters clear the table set by Roberts and Markakis.

In 2010, I'm going to keep track of loony lineup construction, bad bullpenning and silly strategizing with the Twitter tag #Trembleyfail. Follow @theorioleway to keep track, and let me know when you see the same. Together, we can be the force that brings the Orioles an extra win just by not screwing up the lineup.
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Felix Pie

2010-02-28T10:23:00.004-05:00

Perhaps the only interesting story at this point in spring training is how Dave Trembley plans to find at-bats for all four of his talented outfielders. We know that Nick Markakis and Adam Jones will play everyday, while Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie will concoct some sort of time share in left field. While Reimold is limited to left field, Pie is capable of playing all three outfield positions. Assuming the club goes with Reimold as the starting left fielder on Opening Day, how can Pie get enough at-bats?

1) Pie can spell both Reimold and Jones, each of whom has battled injuries in the past and has yet to prove he can make it healthily through a full MLB season.
2) Reimold can play a bit of first base or designated hitter, making room for the superior defensive player (Pie) in the outfield on occasion.
3) Reimold bats righty, and Pie lefty. Some straight platooning is likely to be in order.
4) Pie could also DH, sending Luke Scott to the bench.

Basically, it is important to keep in mind that over the course of a 162-game season, it should not be difficult for three players to find at-bats at two positions (Pie, Reimold and Scott at LF and DH), especially when one of those players (Pie) can easily spell Jones from time to time. Injuries happen. Left-handed pitchers happen. Days off happen. The at-bats will be there.

We also need to remember that Luke Scott, who turns 32 in June, is not nearly as big a part of the Orioles future as Pie, who just turned 25. Scott is a good hitter: in three seasons of full-time play, he's posted a .257/.342/.486 line with 66 home runs, good enough for a 114 OPS+. Unfortunately, he's on the wrong side of the aging curve, and he is about to get very expensive. As a second-year arbitration eligible player this year, he agreed to a $4.05 million deal for 2010. During his three full seasons, Scott has been worth 2.3, 2.2, and 1.5 wins above replacement. With free agent wins going for about $3.5 million the open market this off-season, Scott is a good deal at $4 million. At $6 million, he's very close to being fairly paid, and at $7 or $8 million he's probably overpaid, especially at age 33 or 34. I can't see Scott sticking around Baltimore much past 2010 or 2011, and since the 2010 O's are still in building mode, Pie's development shouldn't be hindered in order to get Luke Scott a few more at-bats.

In conclusion, there are plenty of at-bats to go around. No sense worrying over how they'll be distributed today.
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Nick Markakis Bunts

2010-02-24T14:20:00.004-05:00

I hope this is just one of those crazy, half-baked Spring Training theories that will never see the light of day, but Dave Trembley is emphasizing bunting this year. His words:

It's the little things that obviously were prominent that might not have gotten done the way we wanted to get it done last year. So, let's brush up on it in Spring Training, but let's also emphasize the importance of it.

Now, there's nothing inherently wrong with this statement. The Orioles absolutely should be emphasizing such little things as baserunning, pitcher defense, and thinking ahead on the field. These are areas where the Orioles have struggled in recent seasons and improvement would help the club more games. If Trembley, however, thinks having Nick Markakis work on bunting is going to help the Orioles win games, I think it's probably best for the sanity of all Orioles fans (and especially mine) if MacPhail makes a managerial change right now.

Wow, February 24 and I've already done my first "Fire Trembley" post. That can't be good.
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Young Whippersnappers

2010-02-24T09:12:00.002-05:00

Rob Neyer pointed me to this, a piece about a father and his son's obsession with sabermetrics, today, and I wanted to make sure that my own Dad, since he's maybe my only regular reader, saw it, too. I might not even tweet this post, but considering that Dad just got a BlackBerry (I received approximately 17 text messages with some form of "new Bbeery tring out txting" from him this weekend), so maybe I should.
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Orioles: Sleeping Giant?

2010-02-20T17:58:00.004-05:00

Hey, I didn't say it. Brian Cashman did:

The Oriole way is coming back real quick. I went to high school and college in the DC area, so I know how important the Orioles are to that area. It's a sleeping giant that will emerge again, I promise you.

As soon as I read this, I knew I had read it somewhere before, and it didn't take me long to track down the source, The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty by Buster Olney. Here are a few excerpts, quotes beginning on page 179 if you're following along at home:

The balance of power in the American League East seemed to be at stake after the 1995 season...The Yankees were gaining strength but still not fully reestablished, the Boston Red Sox were a playoff team lacking depth, and Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos was intent on turning his club into a powerhouse...During the run of championships, the Yankees' greatest good fortune may well have been in sharing a division with rivals infected by crippling dysfunction. Yankees officials viewed the Baltimore Orioles, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays with fear and fascination: they were dangerous franchises, with high payrolls and formidable potential for developing revenue streams, but they never consistently challenged the Yankees...The Orioles were a cash machine, thriving because of the popularity of their home field.

Olney goes on to detail the folly that was the Orioles of the late 90s (and remember, he covered the O's beat in 1995 and 1996), but he does close with this line: "Baltimore never finished closer than 13 1/2 games to the Yankees from 1998 to 2001, and before they would rebound, Angelos would have to learn to trust others, it seemed." Given that immediately following this statement Olney describes the Red Sox failures under Dan Duquette--and that we know how a GM change worked out in Boston--I can only hope that Olney's words about Angelos ring true.
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Koji Uehara

2010-02-18T19:25:00.011-05:00

It's official: Koji Uehara is headed to the bullpen. I happen to think he will perform very well in this role, mainly because he pitched fairly well as a starter last season. Brittany Ghiroli also makes another point: he pitches much better the first time through the batting order. Then again, so do all starting pitchers. Koji, though, is extreme:

	tOPS 1st	tOPS 2nd	tOPS 3rd
Uehara	51	108	160
League	94	105	111

tOPS is simply the OPS allowed relative to a player's (or the league's) normal. So if a player performs at 100, he is performing at his average level. Below 100 for pitcher, means he pitched better than his normal.

As you can see, all pitchers tend to perform more poorly as they advance through the game; this is part of the reason why pitchers post better numbers as relievers than as starters. You can also see that Uehara's splits were far greater than the rest of the league. If he pitches out of the bullpen like he did his first time through the order (.202/.224/.337 with a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio), the O's will have a shut down reliever.

(I apologize for the looks of that table; I'm very, very rusty on my html.)
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Bloggers on the Beat

2010-02-16T14:09:00.002-05:00

MLB.com has a new beat blogger for the Orioles this season, Brittany Ghiroli. She was a contestant on last year's Prospectus Idol, which I think bodes well the perspective she'll provide.
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Only the Orioles...

2010-02-12T09:25:00.002-05:00

Or maybe the Royals.

Brad Bergesen hurt his shoulder filming a TV commercial. I kid you not.
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Beer Tragedy Update

2010-02-03T19:07:00.003-05:00

This landed in the Birds Nest inbox this afternoon...

From: The Brother In-Law
To: The Oriole Way
Subject: Amid fallen brothers, weary soldiers return home

After weeks of post-holiday uncertainty, we have finally welcomed home the brave Oregon brews sent to fight thirst in the East. The troops never met the front lines, however, as several casualties met the battalion along the journey.

Last week I returned home from work to find a familiar package at my door; one that had left town weeks ago. The brown box, carefully addressed to one The Oriole Way of Owings Mills, Maryland, was hardly recognizable. What can best be described as the "bottom left" of the package prominently displayed a large dent; the entire parcel was tightly wrapped in cellophane and the top was stamped "unclaimed." Immediately, I realized at least one of the tightly-wrapped metalheads had met disaster en route to the unit's destination.

I was able to find some time today to explore the damage and cut open the package, a process akin to the first steps into King Tut's tomb or the curious Pandora's first glimpse into a now-famous box. The first wave of smell hit me like a five iron as my mailbox key deftly separated plastic and tape, cardboard and paper. The putrid scent of mold and stale beer smelled like the bastard child of an Arizona State fraternity and Jeffrey Dahmer's refrigerator. As the key moved on and the interior of the box came into view, I found what I thought to be a full, intact bottle. In fact, it was a 22-ounce Lompoc Strong Draft with the cap still on but very little liquid still inside. This terrible fate was echoed by some other bottles deeper inside the package. In a flurry of bubble wrap, moldy liquid and bottles, I recovered the survivors:

22-ounce Deschutes Brewing Hop Trip
22-ounce Roots Organic Brewing Island Red
22-ounce Cascade Lakes Brewing India Pale Ale
22-ounce Oakshire Brewing Ill-Tempered Gnome Winter Ale
12-ounce Bridgeport Brewing Ebenezer Ale

These tough and delicious thirst warriors left Portland prepared to fight valiantly against cheap beer and dry NFL playoffs, only to return to base with scars of war not found in battle. The scars worn by these timeless heroes are those of The Oriole Way's empty pint glass and broken dreams. The revered veterans have been cleaned up and debriefed, will receive proper ceremony and are scheduled to return to duty at base camp within 24 hours.

Prosit.

Out of 11 brave soldiers, five survived. May the memory of the lost be honored with taps and a 22 oz salute.
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Free Agent Fail

2010-02-02T11:14:00.003-05:00

Pick one of the following players for this season:

Player A: Age 29, $550,000 salary, CHONE Projected .344 wOBA, 3-year trend: .365, .333, .338 wOBA
Player B: Age 30, $4,500,000 salary, CHONE Projected .324 wOBA, 3-year trend: .368, .337, .291 wOBA

Let's also point out that Player A spent most of the past three seasons in the American League, and Player B spent all of the last three years in the best hitter's park in the National League. I am, of course, talking about Ryan Garko (Player A) and Garrett Atkins (Player B).

Free agent fail.
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Bloomberg Sports

2010-02-01T15:19:00.000-05:00

Wow, this looks awesome.

As a financial industry professional with a Bloomberg terminal on my desk, I wonder if there is any way possible I can sneak this expense by our data services team. Hmmm... I trade FX, this uses PitchFX, do you think anyone will notice?
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2010 Baltimore Birds Nest Projection, Part I

2010-02-01T09:38:00.003-05:00

Hard as it may be to believe, spring training is barely two weeks away. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Orioles roster is shaping up for 2010.

By my count, 23 of the 25 roster spots are spoken for. We can assume the Orioles will keep 13 position players and 12 pitchers. First, the position players:

CA: Matt Wieters, Craig Tatum
IF: Brian Roberts, Cesar Izturis, Miguel Tejada, Garrett Atkins, Ty Wigginton, Robert Andino
OF: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie
DH: Luke Scott

I’m giving the 13th spot to Robert Andino since he is the only back-up available to play shortstop and second base (except maybe Justin Turner), meaning that both Michael Aubrey and Luis Montanez are likely off the roster. At this point, I think it is once again fair to scratch our heads at the Garrett Atkins signing. Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder and Justin Turner are dark horses to make the team out of spring training, but each could make his Baltimore debut sometime in 2010.

On to the pitchers:

SP: Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman
RP: Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith, Mark Hendrickson

Two relievers will come from this group: David Hernandez, Alberto Castillo, Matt Albers, Jason Berken, Kam Mickolio, Armando Gabino, and Wilfrido Perez. Waiting in the wings, the Orioles have Jake Arrietta, Brandon Erbe and Troy Patton who, while currently starting pitchers, could easily fill bullpen roles if no spots open up in the rotation.

In 2009, the Orioles allowed 876 (rank: 14, league average: 771) runs while scoring 741 (rank: 11, league average: 781) runs for a Pythagorean record of 69-93, five games better than their actual record of 64-98. Thanks to Dave Cameron, I know we can’t stop there. According to WAR, the Orioles received 15.8 WAR from their offense (including pitcher hitting) and 7.5 WAR from their pitchers. Since replacement level in 2009 was about 46 wins, the Orioles are actually about a 69 win team according to WAR. Thus, since the two methods agree, I’m very comfortable working with a baseline performance of 69 wins from the 2009 Orioles.

Thus, in order to make a run at .500 in 2010, the Orioles need to improve by about 120 or 130 runs. The fastest way for this team to make up those runs will be to improve the pitching staff, and my early analysis shows that they will do just that. Last season, Orioles starting pitchers threw 877.2 innings, compiling a cringe inducing 5.37 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. According to FIP, that ERA was no fluke either. The starters allowed 154 homers, walked 299 and struck out just 533; that’s a FIP of 5.38. Fortunately, the starting pitching projects to be much improved for 2010.

(Note: For each of the pitchers below, I’m taking a weighted average of three readily available projection systems: Bill James, PECOTA, and CHONE, except for Brian Matusz, who does not have a Bill James projection.)

Kevin Millwood: 174.0 IP, 194.7 H, 21.0 HR, 58.3 BB, 5.0 HBP, 113.3 K, 4.56 FIP
Jeremy Guthrie: 192.7 IP, 200.3 H, 27.0 HR, 62.0 BB, 5.7 HBP, 115.7 K, 4.87 FIP
Brad Bergesen: 148.7 IP, 164.7 H, 17.7 HR, 42.7 BB, 8 HBP, 74.3 K, 4.77 FIP
Brian Matusz: 109.5 IP, 117.5 H, 15.0 HR, 42.0 BB, 1.0 HBP, 85.0 K, 4.61 FIP
Chris Tillman: 137.0 IP, 143.7 H, 19.3 HR, 58.7 BB, 8.3 HBP, 112.0 K, 4.87 FIP
Combined: 761.8 IP, 820.8 H, 100.0 HR, 263.6 BB, 28.0 HBP, 500.3 K, 4.74 FIP

Now, normally a team will need about 975 innings out of its starting pitchers (162 * 6 IP = 972 innings), meaning the Orioles have about 200 innings unaccounted for in the above projections. While it would be awfully nice to give 75 of those to Brian Matusz (Matusz threw 157.2 including the minors last season) and Chris Tillman (161.2 combined), let’s instead be conservative and give those 200 innings a replacement level-ish 250 hits, 30 homers, 100 walks, and 130 strikeouts; that works out to a FIP of 5.35. Our new combined starting pitcher line: 961.8 IP, 1070.8 H, 130.0 HR, 363.7 BB, 28.0 HBP, 630.3 K, 4.87 FIP. Some quick subtraction shows that this year’s staff is 0.50 runs per nine innings better than last year’s version (5.38 – 4.87 = 0.51). That’s a savings of about 50 runs over last season. You’ll quickly notice that a 0.10 difference in FIP equates to 10 runs, or one win; keep that in mind when we start to do a bit of sensitivity analysis around these projections.

Moving on to the bullpen, the 2009 ‘pen threw 550.1 innings, posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (613 H, 64 HR, 232 BB, 400 K, 4.49 FIP). Now, FIP is a bit less reliable for relievers, but it’s the best I can offer; plus, there doesn’t seem to be any clear bias in the data one way or the other. Let’s look at our bullpen projections for this season.

Mike Gonzalez: 60.7 IP, 50.0 H, 6.0 HR, 25.0 BB, 2.3 HBP, 64.0 K, 3.73 FIP
Koji Uehara: 58.3 IP, 60.3 H, 7.0 HR, 15.0 BB, 0.0 HBP, 44.7 K, 4.00 FIP
Jim Johnson: 63.7 IP, 68.7 H, 7.3 HR, 24.7 BB, 2.0 HBP, 41.3 K, 4.66 FIP
Cla Meredith: 65.7 IP, 73.7 H, 6.7 HR, 20.7 BB, 1.7 HBP, 41.3 K, 4.28 FIP
Combined: 248.3 IP, 252.7 H, 27.0 HR, 85.3 BB, 6.0 HBP, 191.3 K, 4.18 FIP

(Note: I'm not using the Mark Hendrickson projections since they seem to be giving him waaay too many innings. I'm just going to roll him into the replacement level below.)

To play a full season, a team needs 1,450 innings from its pitching staff. We’ve now projected 1,210.1 between the starting rotation and the top four relievers, meaning we need 240 more innings. We’ll give those a FIP of 5.00 (240.0 IP, 275 H, 30 HR, 120 BB, 160 K) since we would expect replacement level pitchers in the bullpen to be just a bit better than our replacement pitchers in the rotation (mainly because many of those replacement starters are going to see some time in the bullpen, and they're numbers out of the 'pen should be better than their numbers as starters). The combined relief pitcher line: 488.3 IP, 527.7 H, 57.0 HR, 205.3 BB, 6.0 HBP, 160.0 K, 4.58 FIP. Unfortunately, that’s right about the same level as last year’s bullpen.

Now, that does not mean this year’s ‘pen won’t actually be better than last year’s version. Mike Gonzalez should be a pretty fair approximation for the George Sherrill that was so impressive for the first four months of the season, and I’m very optimistic that Koji Uehara will take nicely to a bullpen role. If that happens, Dave Trembley should be able to use Johnson and Meredith in situations where they face better match-ups, and likewise for the remainder of the bullpen. In addition, last year’s pen actually allowed a bit more runs than their FIP would suggest. I’m comfortable projecting a 0.2 runs per nine innings improvement for the bullpen this year, or about 11 runs better than last season.

Adding up the rotation and the bullpen, here is the combined projected pitching line for 2010: 1,450.2 IP, 1,598.5 H, 187.0 HR, 569.0 BB, 34.0 HBP, 981.7 K, 4.77 FIP. That works out to about 775 earned runs allowed for the Orioles. Add in 35 unearned runs, and I project the club to allow a total of 810 runs for 2010. In other words, the Orioles figure to improve by about six wins on the mound in 2010.

Up next: Part II (The Offense).
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Projection Season Begins

2010-01-29T09:21:00.004-05:00

The 2010 Projection Season is here! Baseball Prospectus pegs the O's for 79 wins, which is looking to be right about where I think the O's finish as well. I'm hoping to get my season preview up this weekend, but that is entirely dependent on finishing homework for Monday's and Tuesday's class.

Update, 7:58 PM: BP reports that there are problems with the data. I'll repost once they have it fixed.

Update, Feb 3, 7:20 PM: The link above should be to good data again. 80 wins for the O's.
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More on Miggy

2010-01-25T15:16:00.002-05:00

Peter Schmuck loves it.

The veterans on this team want a chance to compete, and the fact that Tejada had 199 hits last year appears to outweigh any concerns about the negative aspects of his previous incarnation as an Oriole.

Well, maybe. But he also managed just 19 walks and 14 home runs while playing in the weaker league last season. I hope people aren't expecting the same Miguel Tejada that posted a .311/.362/.501 line in his four seasons with the Orioles.

Also, there's this:

The Orioles ranked fifth in the league in batting average last year but only 11th in runs, which is an indication that they are an RBI guy or two away from being a pretty good offensive team. Tejada's run-production potential isn't what it was when he drove in 150 runs for the Orioles in 2004, but he's still a difference-maker.

Egads. The O's were 8th in OBP, and 10th in slugging percentage. They don't need a good "RBI guy", they need a guy who can get on base and hit with some pop. At this stage in his career, it is unclear if Tejada (.313/.340/.455 in 2009) is that guy, regardless of his past RBI accumulations.
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First Base

2010-01-25T12:15:00.004-05:00

With the signing of Miguel Tejada over the weekend, the Orioles appear to have finalized their roster for 2010. Tejada will play third, while Garrett Atkins will man first base. Given Atkins' shift across the diamond, I think it is worthwhile to reevaluate his acquisition.

As we saw when the Orioles signed him a few weeks ago, Atkins is probably a bit above replacement level as a third baseman. When moving over to first, however, he no longer benefits from the positional adjustment, pushing him darn near close to replacement level as a player. This might be excusable if there were no other options or Atkins was reasonably expected to improve in 2010, but he's 30-years old and coming off a truly awful year in the weaker league (and in a great hitters' park). I can understand the roll of the dice if Atkins is going to play third base; not so much if he's going to play first.

Rather, I would have liked the Orioles to sign Ryan Garko. He's two years younger, has played in the American League, and projects to post a higher OBP and ISO than Atkins. Both are right-handed hitters and could thus platoon with Michael Aubrey or Luke Scott. In fact, check out Garko's career split versus lefties: .313/.392/.495 in 485 plate appearances. Aubrey, in a small-sample size 122 Major League plate appearances, has a .283/.336/.487 line against righties. That seems like pretty decent production from a corner infielder put together on the cheap, no? (Full disclosure: Atkins is a career .301/.384/.486 against lefties, and was .268/.363/.428 in 2009). Mostly, I think the Orioles could have come up with a productive solution at first base for less money and less risk than paying Garrett Atkins $4.5 million.
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Miguel Tejada

2010-01-23T19:16:00.003-05:00

Frankly, this is shocking. The 1-year, $6 million deal seems about right, and the type of player that Tejada is today is a good fit for the Orioles (experienced right-handed hitter that can play an infield corner), but I'm really surprised the club is bringing him back. If my feelings are any indication, the fan base was more than ready to move on. He was bad on defense, perceived to be both lazy and a malcontent, and his involvement in the Palmeiro fiasco seemed indicative of deeper clubhouse issues. Maybe this will all work out in the end, with Tejada being a model citizen while keeping the hot corner errr... hot for Josh Bell, but I can't think of very many signings that would be quite so controversial.

On a happier note, this means that the O's roster is pretty much set for the coming year and I can put the final touches on my season preview. I doubt I will get it done tonight, but should have most of it complete in the next few days.
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Relief Pitching

2010-01-20T12:02:00.003-05:00

Back in the dark ages of 2006, the Orioles had a really bad bullpen (I know, hard to believe). A relief corps anchored by LaTroy Hawkins, Bruce Chen, Russ Ortiz, John Halama, and Todd Williams somehow managed to punch up a 5.27 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 512.1 IP. In response, the club decided to spend big money on middle relievers in the free agent market: Danys Baez (3 years, $19 million), Jamie Walker (3 years, $12.0 million), and Chad Bradford (3 years, $10.5 million) received a combined $41.5 million. The results? Disastrous.

Over the past three seasons (and including the season and a half Bradford spent with Tampa Bay), those three "pitchers" (and I use that term loosely) were worth a combined 0.8 wins above replacement, with Bradford the only one earning positive returns. That's right, the Orioles paid $51.9 million per marginal win! Granted, the rest of the league wasn't so good either that offseason. Seven relievers (Baez, Walker, Bradford, Keith Foulke, Guillermo Mota, Scott Schoeneweis, and Justin Speier) received $80.3 million in guaranteed money and returned -0.8 wins to their clubs! I think it's safe to say that the free agent market is not a good place to go looking for wins from your bullpen.
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Links

2010-01-18T17:48:00.003-05:00

A few links for your reading pleasure...

1) FanGraphs runs down the remaining free agent first basemen: Branyan, Delgado, Garko, Thome, Giambi, Blalock, and Tatis. I think Ryan Garko would be my preferred option out of that group, based on age, defensive abilities, and his recent success in the American League. Delgado would be a reasonable risk to see if he can bounce back from an injury plagued 2009.

2) Orioles Top 10 prospects, also courtesy of FanGraphs. This is a much deeper list than the pre-MacPhail years.

3) A rundown of recent Orioles drafts, from (you guessed it) FanGraphs. Notice that while many people criticized the O's for going cheap at the top, they signed quite a few guys to significant over slot deals last year. Additionally, the last time the club lacked a 2nd and 3rd round pick, it spent heavily on Wieters, Arrieta, and Tim Bascom. Remember when I panned the loss of a 2nd round pick on the Mike Gonzalez deal? Well, let's see how the Orioles spend the money saved by not having a 2nd round pick before passing final judgment.

4) One last FanGraphs item: Matt Klaassen discusses the Orioles surplus of young, talented outfielders. I'd still like to see how Nolan Reimold looks with a first baseman's mitt. It wouldn't have to be permanent, and there's no reason he couldn't still play 60 games in the outfield as sort of a mini-platoon with Pie and a day off every couple weeks for Adam Jones (with Pie playing in center those days).

5) The Orioles have been fairly quiet in the reliever market, signing one (Gonzalez), trading one away (Ray), and losing one to free agency (Hendrickson... maybe), but the bullpen should be much improved next year. Spencer Fordin has the rundown. He lists Uehara, Meredith, Sarfate, Albers, Hernandez, Berken, Mickolio, Lebron, Castillo, and Perez; ten guys who each have legitimate chances to be something from key late inning options to match-up lefties, from swing men to insurance in the minors. Throw in Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Troy Patton and maybe even a few others, and the Orioles could potentially have an above average bullpen. If Millwood allows the starting rotation to stabilize (with Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman and Bergesen) and Gonzalez takes the 9th inning, the Orioles could be much improved at run prevention. I'll have much more about this in the days ahead.
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Corner Infield

2010-01-18T09:35:00.002-05:00

This from John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus:

The Orioles are targeting Joe Crede, Tejada, and Hank Blalock as free
agents to play third base now that LaRoche has been signed; Garrett Atkins would
be shifted to first base. Another idea the Orioles are kicking around is moving
left fielder Nolan Reimold to first base and playing Felix Pie in left.

Hey, that sounds like a familiar idea!
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Annals of the Stupid

2010-01-16T10:43:00.004-05:00

When I awoke yesterday morning, I was in a great mood. It was Extravamanza day, the sixth annual version of my festival of all things man: beer, football, and food. Friends and family (all men, of course) travel far and wide to attend, and I look forward to this day for the entire year. Unfortunately, the Orioles did their best to ruin it for me.

See, when I opened my Google Reader, I was greeted with the following headline: O's to charge extra for tickets purchased on game day. As an MBA student, I am required to be a fan of price discrimination, the method by which companies charge their customers different prices according to their willingness to pay. This is why seats behind home plate cost more, and why I fully support charging Red Sox and Yankees fans an arm and a leg to attend a game at Camden Yards. However, I do not support charging game day walk-up purchases a higher price.

People choose to wait until the last minute for many reasons: weather, pitching match-ups, work schedules, etc. Since the Orioles rarely sell-out, they should be encouraging, not discouraging, walk-up purchases. Several times a year I purchase tickets at the walk-up window. Now, I'm less likely to say "Let's go to the game tonight" if I know that tickets for my wife and I will be somewhere between $2 and $10 more expensive.

You could argue that baseball games are like airline tickets: the inventory expires and, if it goes unsold, generates no marginal revenue. Airlines typically charge higher prices at the last minute, capturing the willingness to pay of customers who have to travel today. Baseball doesn't benefit from the same immediacy, however. In fact, it's more like a hotel: unsold rooms generate no revenue, but hotel customers are usually unwilling to pay a higher price at the last minute. Why? Options. Fliers might be able to drive or take a train, but those aren't legitimate options in many situations. Hotel guests can typically walk across the street or around the corner and find another room. Similarly, baseball fans can stay home and watch the game, head to their local watering hole with friends, or do something else entirely, like watch a movie. I fully support variable pricing, raising or lowering prices based on demand, but a blanket price increase for walk-ups is not variable pricing; it's a ticket price increase. I don't know about how other Orioles fans feel, but I don't perceive that the franchise is in any position to raise prices.
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Beer Tragedy

2010-01-14T13:49:00.002-05:00

I try to keep this blog reserved for baseball—and specifically, the Orioles—but I recently suffered a beer tragedy that has forced me to pen this non-sports post.

As you may know, I love beer. I don’t mean that I love polishing off a dozen Miller Lites, I mean that I love beer. The good stuff. IPAs, stouts, pale ales. In fact, I’m a bit (ok, a lot) of a beer snob. This is no secret amongst my friends and relatives, and for Christmas this past year my brother-in-law gave me the ultimate beer lover’s gift: 202 ounces of delicious Pacific Northwest brews, shipped directly to my home! That’s seven 22 oz bombers and four individual 12 ouncers representing eight different breweries and 10 distinct beers. Unfortunately, the package he mailed from Portland, Oregon, just before Christmas has never arrived at my home in Baltimore. If you are reading this and you are the postmaster of some small town in Nebraska where my package was lost along the way, please send it along.

My brother-in-law selected these beers with care, and he chose a wide array of brews that were sure to please my discerning palate. Come along with me as I imagine how delicious each would taste (all descriptions below are from the brewery).

1) Lompoc Brewing C-Note Imperial Pale Ale (22 oz): To call C-Note very hoppy would be an understatement. It's brewed with the seven "C" hops (Crystal, Cluster, Cascade, Chinook, Centennial, Columbus and Challenger) and pushes the bitterness limit to 100 International Bitterness Units (6.9% abv. 100 IBU).

2) Lompoc Brewing LSD (Lompoc Strong Draft) (22 oz): A Portland Classic! This strong ale has a deep mahogany color and is crafted with seven different specialty malts. A touch of smoked malt gives it a complex aroma and incredible flavor. LSD is also generously hopped with six hop varieties to help create an awesome beer (6.9% abv. 58 IBU).

3) Cascade Lakes Brewing IPA (22 oz): For those hop lovers out there, this is the beer for you. It is a traditional American Style I.P.A. featuring a significant amount of Northwest hops balanced with a hefty grain bill. If this beer doesn’t make your taste buds scream hops then we don’t know what will (6.0% abv. 65 IBU).

4) Cascade Lakes Brewing Santa’s Little Helper (12 oz): This is our winter seasonal beer which arrives early fall and stays around till after the holidays. Crystal malt and Cascade hops produce a well-balanced strong ale that is perfect for nights around fireplace with friends and family (6.4% abv, 50 IBU).

5) Deschutes Brewing Hop Trip (22 oz): This Fresh Hop Pale Ale is all about celebrating the hop harvest in the fall. Fresh picked hops have to be added to the brew immediately and in abundance. Roughly 680 pounds of Crystal hops from Doug Weathers' farm outside Salem, Oregon will be added to each 120 barrel batch in addition to some dry kilned whole flower hops. That adds up to approximately 5.7 pounds of hops per barrel brewed (5.5% abv, 30 IBU).

6) Terminal Gravity Brewing IPA (two 12 oz): Terminal Gravity's "India Pale Ale" is pale copper in color but big in flavor with a heady hop character. It is a true beer drinkers beer and brings a smile to many a face. We use spring water and snow melt from high in the Eagle Cap Wilderness! This is the beer that was named Beer of the Year by the Oregonian (6.9% abv).

"Terminal Gravity India Pale Ale is one of the best beers in the state, and therefore the country. It is a rich copper in the glass with a lucious hops aroma betraying a vigorous hopping rate. Complex maltiness balances the hoppy bite, as do the peachy notes... imparted by the yeast." John Foyston, The Oregonian

7) Heater Allen Brewing Sandy Paws (22 oz): Our Christmas beer. This year's Sandy Paws will be a little on the light side for a Baltic Porter, actually more of a roasty Bock. Still no light-weight, and still a great beer to sit by the fire with. Our "cover dog" for this year's label is Monty, a year old Labradoddle owned by Bill Sweat and Donna Morris of Winderlea Vineyards. Thanks again to Bill and Donna for their generous contribution to the McMinnville Education Foundation. 120 cases produced (6.25% abv, 36 IBU).

8) Roots Organic Brewing Island Red (22 oz): We call this a RED stout. Very full bodied complex ale brewed with a good amount of oats and barley, which lend to the nice bread and malt flavors and help give this RED a very rich & creamy head (5.6% abv, 62.5 IBU).

9) Oakshire Brewing Ill Tempered Gnome (22 oz): Take a little gnome home this winter! However, don’t put him in the front yard. The neighbors might steal him & he’ll definitely lose his cool! He’s a malty, hoppy brown ale of pure winter deliciousness (6.8% abv, 65 IBU).

10) Bridgeport Brewing Ebenezer Ale (12 oz): Our special Holiday brew, Ebenezer Ale is a smooth ale with a complex palate derived from four different roasted malts and a blend of local and imported hops. Deep mahogany in color, its malty first taste and full body is balanced with a light hop aroma, leading to a caramel finish. It’s a festive elixir that can transform the mood of any scrooge! So forget the egg-nog and have a pint of Ebenezer (6.4% abv, 40 IBU).

Now, if we had really been traveling down this lovely beer road, the spelling and punctuation on this post would not be nearly so accurate, and I would be smiling. Alas, the beers are missing. And I am not smiling.

Joe Torre

2010-01-13T11:44:00.003-05:00

I'd like to thank Joe Posnanski for helping me to recall this memory.

Back when I interned for the Orioles, one of my daily responsibilities was to head down to the clubhouse after the game, record the manager's interview with the press, and then head back up to the pressbox to type the quotes so that the beat writers could include the comments in their stories. My intern desk-mate* and I would alternate between the home and visiting clubhouses, thus giving us both a chance to listen to each visiting manager. I really enjoyed seeing the quirky personalities of each manager; Ron Gardenhire conducted his interviews standing up while the Minnesota press sat, Dusty Baker would never take off his sweatbands until the interview was over, Lou Piniella was half-naked and already drinking beer, Buck Showalter was thoughtful and articulate, and Grady Little was barely understandable thanks to his hillbilly accent. Joe Torre, though, was the consummate professional.

* Yes, the club made us share a desk and a computer. Not some modern, fast computer, but and outdated machine that surfed the Web at the speed of molasses. It would literally take us hours to complete tasks that should have taken us no more than 30 minutes. In hindsight, it's clear that Peter Angelos hadn't really invested in the infrastructure necessary to run a first rate front office. I can only hope that things have changed.

As everyone knows, the Yankees have a huge media contingent, so big that we had to prepare name cards for the press box so that all the Baltimore regulars wouldn't lose their seats. The media for most clubs has a routine that it follows; this person asks the first question and maybe a follow-up, and then that person follows, and the Yankees were no different. After the game, the herd crowded into Torre's office where it dutifully waited for the YES Network to ask the first question. Torre, still fully clad and not yet eating or drinking, answered the three or four standard post-game questions, and then the YES Network hurriedly rushed out to the clubhouse to talk with the players (probably to Jeter or some other sissy) while most writers stayed behind to get one or two more quotes from Torre.

Only, whoever was supposed to ask the next question never spoke up. I was standing right next to Torre, and after a few seconds of silence I found myself speaking up. Torre had never seen me before, and I'm sure he suspected that he would never see me again (my shirt and tie were a dead giveaway that I was not a member of the media). Still, he looked me in the eye as he answered my question, and even gave it a few sentences more than it probably deserved. He was a master of the media, and that's a large part of what him so successful in New York.

In another of those, "Wow, am I actually doing this?" moments from the summer, I was riding the elevator from the press box to the service level a few hours before game time when the doors opened at the main stadium entrance. In walked a short, slight man. It was Mariano Rivera. While I should have been thinking, "I'm riding an elevator with the greatest closer of all-time!" I was instead struck by how short and skinny he was. I also got to tell Derek Jeter "Out of my way!" (ok, "Excuse me") when he and Jorge Posada were playing catch in front of the home plate gate. Fun times.
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Will Clark

2010-01-11T10:12:00.003-05:00

Oddly, the theme of this year's Hall of Fame season seems, to me, at least, to be a player who was not even on the ballot: Will Clark. Perhaps it's the rash of just-less-than-great players from the 1980s recently elected, a renewed emphasis on defense, or just better context surrounding the offensive explosion of the 1990s, but I'm ready to declare 2010 The Year Will Clark Was Finally Appreciated. For someone who frequently posts around the Web with the handle WillClark4HOF, this is great news. A round-up:

1) The Strange Case of Will Clark, Lincoln Mitchell
2) Looking into Hall's Crystal Ball, Rob Neyer
3) Best Players in Baseball, Joe Posnanski (with a recap from Neyer)

Will the Thrill finished his career with an OPS+ of 137, tied for 88th among players with at least 3,000 plate appearances. For comparison purposes, Jim Rice's 128 is 179th and Andre Dawson's 119 is 358th. His power peak was very brief (and early, 20+ homers just twice after age 27), and he retired early, but Clark deserves to be remembered as a great player, if for no other reason than he may have put together the greatest performance in LCS history: against the Cubs in 1989, he batted .650/.682/1.200 with two homers, a triple, and three doubles with 8 RBI and 8 runs scored across 20 at-bats in five games.

I think this quote from Posnanski perfectly sums up Clark's underratedness:

So what do you think? Good numbers, right? I mean, they don’t pop your eyes out or anything — if you were judging Clark’s Hall of Fame case, those numbers would probably register as being good but nothing historically special.
So how is it that those numbers made Clark the best player in baseball for those five years? Well, for one thing, he played half his games in awful hitting Candlestick Park. For another, it was a low-scoring time — those 109 RBIs in 1988 led the league as did those 104 runs he scored in 1989.
Then, you add that he did a lot of things that are not reflected in the traditional stats. He walked quite often — led the league in walks in 1988. Twice in the five-year
stretch, he led the league in times on base and in runs created. He led the league in equivalent average in 1988, was second in 1989 and third in 1991. He was an above average defensive first baseman.
People often talk about how it can be unfair to judge previous players by today’s standards. But I think it’s unfair that some of the players who did the things that helped teams win baseball games were so under-appreciated. Will Clark had baseball’s best OPS+ from 1987-91 too.

Poor offensive ballpark? Check. Played in a low-scoring environment just prior to a massive offensive boom? Check. Good at the things that don't show up as home runs or RBI? Check. Missed time with injuries to keep his counting stats down? Check. Sounds to me like a perfect recipe for under-appreciation. History will look very favorably upon Clark, perhaps much more so than his college teammate, Rafael Palmeiro.
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Organization Wide Philosophy

2010-01-03T17:33:00.003-05:00

First off, Happy New Year to everyone. While the naughties failed to provide many Orioles highlights, I am confident that the teens will be much more fruitful for those of us that care about baseball in Baltimore. In case you missed it, I put together my All-Decade Team back in June. I know, I'm ahead of the curve.

In cleaning out my Google Reader today (it's amazing how far behind you get in just two weeks), I came across a very interesting Baseball Prospectus interview with Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch. Hinch, a former catcher at Stanford and with the A's, Royals, Tigers and Phillies, was a front-office employee in Arizona when he took over the manager's job midseason in 2009. Thanks to his background, he brings a very unique perspective to the bench, helping make the entire interview well worth the read. I wanted to highlight his closing comments:

One of the things I've learned over the course of being in the front office, and
now as the manager, is that all of the on-field experience, the data research,
the statistical analysis—they're all parts of this pie. They're all pieces of
the pie that can help lead an organization to being a winning organization. What
I want to be is someone who never turns away a piece of that pie if it's going
to help us get better and help us win more games. Hopefully, that's something
that can turn out to be a competitive advantage for us, that we accumulate as
much information as we can and implement it to help us win.

If I were the GM, I'd be looking for a manager that held those same beliefs.
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