Shortstop

One of the few bright spots defensively for the Orioles in 2009 was shortstop Cesar Izturis. Signed
for $6 million over 2-years last offseason, Izturis returned nearly the value of the whole contract last season, posting a 1.3 WAR, worth $5.8 million according to FanGraphs. Chalk up a big win for MacPhail.

Still, Izturis, who will play 2010 at age 30, is not a long-term solution for the position. He is a pretty terrible hitter (his .256/.294/.328 mirrors perfectly his career numbers), and he's starting to get old. He's a fine option for 2010, but I'm sure the Orioles would love to have a younger option that could provide some more offensive punch for the long-term. This winter's trade market may provide one such option.

In 2007 and 2008, J.J. Hardy was one of the best shortstops in baseball. He hit; he played defense; he was a star. But in 2009, the bottom fell out for his hitting and he posted a .229/.302/.357 line--not so different from Cesar Izturis. His defense, though, remained stellar. In fact, FanGraphs rates him as the 3rd best defender over the 2007 to 2009 period. As noted in that article, the Brewers installed rookie Alcides Escobar at shortstop last season, perhaps making Hardy expendable. Should the Orioles take a look?

He's three years younger than Izturis, and plays defense just as well, but is a bit more expensive. Hardy earned $4.65 million in 2009, would be arbitration eligible for next season, and is slated to be a free agent after the 2010 season (according to Cot's; I'm not sure about that. Given that he was sent to the minors for a part of this season, I think that his free agency will be delayed by a year). Importantly, though, J.J. has significant upside with the bat. His down year last year can partly be attributed to a lower BAbip (.260 vs. career .278), but he also seemed to lose some of his power stroke; his line drive percentage fell, and he hit fewer home runs per fly ball. Still, if he can be had fairly cheaply, he would be a good risk for the Orioles to take. Since the team is unlikely to add a power bat on the corners, the O's will need to get extra production from nontraditional sources. Matt Wieters behind the plate and Adam Jones in centerfield are a good start, and J.J. Hardy could provide above average offense from the shortstop position.

Update: Nevermind. Hardy is off the market.

2010 Orioles Preview

Well, this should get me to the front of the line on season previews...

As we all know, 2009 was a disappointing season in the loss column, but the Orioles made significant progress in their rebuilding efforts, breaking in rookies Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, and others. Still, there were set-backs: Adam Jones suffered another season ending injury, Nick Markakis took a step back, and Brandon Snyder struggled upon being promoted to AAA. There is still much work to be done to remake this team into a contender, but the club is still on the right track. Let's look ahead to potential offseason moves and what we can expect from the O's next season.

In 2009, the Orioles had a payroll of $67.1 mm, virtually identical to 2008's $67.2 mm, and the club has $30.1 mm in commitments for 2010. Throw in about $20 mm to cover minimum salaries for the rest of the roster and arbitration raises for eligibles Matt Albers, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Ray, Cla Meredith, and Luke Scott, and the Orioles have some significant money to play with this offseason. Where should they spend it?

Based on players currently in the organization, here is the projected 2010 roster, making room for 12 pitchers and 13 position players:

CA: Matt Wieters
1B:
2B: Brian Roberts
3B:
SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH:

BN: Luke Scott
BN: Felix Pie
BN: Robert Andino
BN: Ty Wiggington
Others: Michael Aubrey, Justin Turner, Lou Montanez

S1: Jeremy Guthrie (R)
S2: Brian Matusz (L)
S3: Chris Tillman (R)
S4: Brad Bergesen (R)
S5:

R1 - 7: Koji Uehara (R), Jim Johnson (R), Chris Ray (R), Matt Albers (R), Cla Meredith (R), Dennis Sarfate (R), Brian Bass (R), Jason Berken (R), David Hernandez (R), Kam Mickolio (R), etc.

There are a few glaring holes that need to be addressed: third base, first base, starting pitcher and left-handed relief pitcher. Additionally, I'm sure the team would love to upgrade shortstop and designated hitter, finding a long-term solution for the middle of the infield and pushing Luke Scott into a platoon role (career vs RHP: .269/.355/.506; vs LHP: .249/.330/.458). Let's explore the options for each position.

Third Base: Internally, the only option is recently acquired Josh Bell, who will play 2010 at the age of 23. He enjoyed a true break-out season at the plate in AA this year, batting .295/.376/.516 with 20 home runs between the Dodgers and Orioles organizations, but he's still a bit rough around the edges defensively (7 errors in just 50 chances since the trade) and his approach from the right-side of the plate is still a work in progress. Bell is clearly the best long-term option for the position, but pushing him to the Major Leagues next season would, at best, be an aggressive move. On the free agent market, there are several players that could provide a bridge between the departed Melvin Mora and Bell, including Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Joe Crede, and Pedro Feliz. None of those guys is likely to require a long-term contract, unlike Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins. I doubt, however, that the Orioles would be willing to hand over a draft pick to sign any of those players, making Type B free agents DeRosa and Glaus unlikely (assuming their former clubs offer arbitration, of course).

First Base: After earning a promotion to Norfolk, Brandon Snyder struggled mightily, posting a .248/.316/.355 line with just two home runs in 262 at-bats. Drafted as a catcher, scouts question whether he will ever hit with enough power to be an every day first baseman. The free agent market doesn't offer much in the way of help, either. Carlos Delgado (38), Nick Johnson (31), and Adam LaRoche (30), all Type B free agents, are the most "attractive" names out there. One (far fetched) option would be the trade market; rumors continue to swirl that the Padres and Brewers would be willing to deal Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, respectively, though Andy MacPhail doesn't seem too keen on trading away any of the prized young pitchers it would take to acquire such a power bat. One option I've long advocated is buying Nolan Reimold a first baseman's mitt. He's not exactly a gold glover in the outfield, and with Felix Pie's strong finish, this move could have the effect of improving both the offense and the defense.

Designated Hitter: Ideally, the Orioles would add a right-handed bat to the mix here. The deepest pool on the free agent market is clearly corner outfield/DH (Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Rick Ankiel, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero, the corpse of Jermaine Dye, etc.), so maybe the O's will get lucky like the Angels and Nationals did last winter with Abreu and Dunn and be able to sign a solid hitter for less than the expected wins he can provide. Again, though, the compensation pick would work against the Orioles signing one of these players, but many of these guys are likely to not be offered arbitration.

Starting Pitcher: Until the team gives the keys to Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe, they'll need someone else to pitch every fifth day. The best pitcher on the market, John Lackey, will command too high a price tag, and the quality drops off quickly thereafter. Upside injury plays like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, and Justin Duchscherer can't be counted on to provide very many innings, Jason Marquis, Vicente Padilla, and Randy Wolf carry the giant "WARNING: National League Pitcher" tag, and while future Hall-of-Famers Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson may harken back to the good ol' days of the 1990s, they aren't likely to come to Baltimore.

Relief Pitcher: There are lots of "closers" on the market (Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, and Jose Valverde), but I hope the team has learned its lesson with high priced reliever imports (I'm looking at you, Danys Baez). Given the resurgence in pitching depth within the organization, I'm confident the team can piece together a bullpen capable of holding leads. Koji Uehara, David Hernandez, and perhaps Troy Patton could all be starters-turned-relievers that provide a significant boost to the 'pen, Chris Ray and Jim Johnson may bounce back from disappointing 2009 seasons, and young arms like Wilfrido Perez, Bob McCrory and Steve Johnson could blossom. Relief pitcher performance is highly variable, and the team has lots of internal options.

Defense: One item I've only touched on above is defense. Teams that have made rapid improvements in recent years (like the Rays, Rangers and Mariners) all had one thing in common: they vastly improved their defense. The Orioles ranked 26th in 2009 in defensive efficiency, converting just 68.2% of batted balls into outs. The Orioles set out on the path to improving the defense last year, bringing in Cesar Izturis, but Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis all slipped defensively this past year, with each posting well below average UZR ratings. Nolan Reimold, too, doesn't seem to be helping things with his play in left field. I'm not terribly worried about Jones and Markakis (they still rate highly according to the fans), but the trend in the numbers for Brian Roberts is very worrisome.

Recommendations & Outlook: At this point, the Orioles most glaring need is for a middle-of-the-lineup power bat. The only ones on the free agent market, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, are well positioned to earn lucrative long-term contracts from some combination of the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Cardinals or another mystery team, and they do not play the position the Orioles would like most to fill (first base). Thus, MacPhail needs to at least explore the trade market for Gonzalez or Fielder. He's wise not to trade Tillman or Matusz, but Arrieta, Erbe, and Zach Britton shouldn't be considered untouchable. He may also want to kick the tires on prospect Yonder Alonso (blocked in Cincinnati by Joey Votto). First base looks like it will be a difficult position to fill adequately, unless we can figure out a way to void Mark Teixeira's contract.

At third, waiting for Bell seems like the best bet. Perhaps he will surprise in spring training and make the club on Opening Day, but the Matt Wieters timeline seems more likely. Thus, a stopgap is necessary, meaning the club will likely sign someone like Joe Crede or Troy Glaus (if he is not offered arbitration). Glaus could be an attractive option since he could also DH in an attempt to stay healthy.

Pitching wise, as much as the team "needs" a "veteran" to "lead" the staff (or so I've been told by the Sun commenters), there really isn't much out there worth the risk or investment. If the team could somehow sign John Lackey for four years and $50 million, I'd be all for it. There would seem to be about as much chance of that happening as me becoming the designated hitter next year, though. Thus, I think we're looking at another season of Mark Hendrickson-esque retreads until Arrieta and/or Erbe reach Baltimore.

As for the outlook for 2010, barring a significant move to acquire Gonzalez or Fielder, this team doesn't have the horses necessary to compete in the AL East; they won't yet score or prevent enough runs to keep up with Boston, New York and Tampa Bay on a nightly basis. However, there is significant upside with the starting pitching. I expect Jeremy Guthrie to bounce back and be a league average starter, and Tillman and Matusz both have top of the rotation potential. Young pitchers are always a wild card, but these two guys have the stuff to succeed next year. As much as I'm hoping otherwise, I expect that Bergesen will regress; he just doesn't have the stuff to keep pitching like he did last year. Still, if Arrieta and Erbe establish themselves, the rotation could go from one of the worst in baseball (2009) to one of the best in a hurry. MacPhail is right that the goal for 2010 shifts to wins and losses, but lets not get our hopes up too much yet. Hitting the .500 mark in 2010 would be an excellent accomplishment.
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Jayson Werth

I was watching the Phillies and Dodgers play last night, and a classmate pointed out that the Orioles drafted Jayson Werth in the first round way back in 1997; I did not know this. Inevitably, this sparked the "Who was he traded for?" question. Some quick Googling revealed the answer: John Bale, after the 2000 season. Yes, a 27-year left-handed relief pitcher who would throw a total of 26.2 innings for the Orioles. In hindsight, it would be nice to have Werth on the club now, and this has sparked the typical "The Orioles are idiots!" comments on various blogs. But were they? In short, yes.

Werth was drafted (as a catcher) out of high school with the 22nd pick of the 1997 draft. He signed quickly and reported to the Orioles Gulf Coast League affiliate. There, he batted .295/.432/.398 over 111 plate appearances. He walked just as much as he struck out (22 times; 19.8%), showing great plate discipline for an 18-year old a few weeks removed from his high school graduation. The next year, he played 120 games for Delmarva, notching a .265/.364/.387 line in 476 plate appearances. He struck out about the same (92 times; 19.3%) but walked a little less (50 times; 10.5%), though still at a very acceptable rate. The 1999 season saw the now 20-year old Werth promoted to Frederick, where he posted a .305/.403/.394 over 279 plate appearances, cutting back on the strikeouts and upping the walks (37 times each; 13.3%). He hadn't shown much power, hitting just 12 home runs in his career to this point, but his knowledge of the strike zone was obviously well-developed. The Orioles, perhaps a bit prematurely, promoted him to Bowie where Werth showed off the same skill set: .273/.364/.355 in 144 plate appearances with 17 walks (11.8%) and 26 strikeouts (18.1%).

After that 1999 season, Werth garned some acclaim as a top-prospect; he was named the #52 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Plate discipline is a valuable skill, and the potential for Werth to be an offensive-minded catcher rightly made him a young player with lots of upside. Werth split the 2000 season between Bowie and Frederick (I can't find the dates he spent with each club), where he produced virtually identical numbers to his 1999 season: a combined .240/.358/.362 in 435 plate appearances with 64 walks (14.7%) and 65 strikeouts (14.9%). He was again named a top prospect by Baseball America (#48), but the Orioles were apparently unimpressed, perhaps in part because they knew Werth would not stick at catcher. Despite fielding a team that went 74-88 in 2000, the club chose to give up on its recent first round pick, deciding that what it really needed was a left-handed reliever who walked 3.65 batters per nine. Shockingly, this type of decision making led to a 63-98 record in 2001.

As if on cue, Werth's power began to develop in 2001. He hit 20 home runs in the Blue Jays minor league system, matching his career total, but he did need to move off catcher, shifting to play some first base in 2001 and the outfield by 2002. He spent the 2002 and 2003 seasons bouncing around the Toronto system, accumulating 104 Major League plate appearances before being traded to the Dodgers for reliever Jason Frasor. In Los Angeles, he showed significant potential as half of a valuable platoon (.290/.377/.690 vs LHP) in 2004, but he struggled in 2005 and then missed the 2006 season due to injury. After being granted free agency following the 2006 season, he caught on with Philadelphia and has been an excellent player for the past three seasons: .276/.376/.494, gaining more playing time with each successive season.

While the Orioles probably wouldn't have been the beneficiary of Werth's late-blossoming, their initial decision to trade him was still indefensible. Aside from the abhorent focus on batting average and not on-base abilities, teams that are rebuilding--as the Orioles were, or at least should have been, doing in 2000--should never value short-term roster construction over long-term potential. 21-year old prospects that have reached AA and exhibited impressive plate discipline are real prospects, even if they haven't yet developed the expected power; left-handed middle relievers are a dime a dozen. Fortunately, the Orioles have changed management and the new GM seems to understand this very concept. After all, he turned George Sherrill into Josh Bell.
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Two Month Break

Wow, has it really been two months since I blogged about the Orioles? Thanks to school starting back, the inevitable losing streak, and a host of excuses, it's been too long. This month is typically dedicated to the teams in the playoffs, but I still want to talk a little orange and black.

At the beginning of the season, I set out three criteria for making this season a success:
1) Matt Wieters establishes himself as an offensive force behind the plate.
2) Felix Pie and Adam Jones show that they are long-term solutions in the outfield.
3) The young pitching does not suffer and significant set-backs.

How did we do?

1) Check. After a slow start, Wieters was impressive in September, batting .333/.395/.486 with 4 home runs and 17 RBI during the month, raising his overall line to a quite respectable .288/.340/.412. Sure it wasn't quite what we had hoped for, but we can still expect great things from young Matt.

2) Incomplete. A great start led to his selection for the All-Star team, but Adam Jones struggled from June onwards, finally succumbing to (another) season-ending injury and missing the final month of the season. April and May had us thinking stardom, but June, July and August--aside from one great stretch from late July into early August--just left us with more questions. The talent is obvious, but I'd still really like to see a full healthy, productive season from Jones. Meanwhile, Pie's season was the exact opposite: a terrible start followed by a fast finish. He looked much, much better as the season progressed, and could be a real asset for the club going forward. There seemed to be a movement afoot late in the season to trade Pie for another bat, but given that he's unlikely to return an impact first baseman and the troubles Adam Jones has had staying healthy, the team is much more likely to keep him around.

3) Double check. Not only did the young talent make it through the season without any long-term injury concerns (Erbe bounced back nicely from shoulder issues, and Bergesen's freak leg injuries are not expected to linger into spring training), but Matusz and Tillman both racked up valuable experience in Baltimore. They didn't pitch great, but they flashed the talent that has scouts drooling.

Unfortunately, we can't stop there. This season had another recurring theme, and it was of a much darker variety: what is wrong with Nick Markakis? FanGraphs chronicled the unfortunate developments that led to Markakis posting a line similar to his rookie season. Obviously, the young kids are an important part remaking the Orioles into a winner. Equally important are Brian Roberts maintaining his high level of play and Nick Markakis being a star. Without Markakis as a big bat in the middle of the lineup, the rebuilding efforts are going to fail. Was he hurt? Distracted by life changes? Was his regression random? Let's hope that 2009 is an anomaly, and he returns to his 2008 level (or better) in 2010.

Finally, the bullpen was just awful, especially after the Sherrill trade. With Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman all ticketed for the 2010 rotation, Hernandez and Uehara should both help bolster the unit next spring. Chris Ray will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and perhaps Jim Johnson will look more like the pitcher he was before taking over the closer's role. Given the variability in relief pitcher performance, I'm not too worried about next year's bullpen.

Coming soon, a preview of what the Orioles need to do this offseason to prepare for 2010.
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Last Post on the Draft

One last post on the draft, and then I'm done.

Are first round draft picks overpaid? Nope. Not even close. But don't take my word for it; take Erik Manning's.
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Annals of Ridiculous Statements

Top of the 1st, Nolan Reimold has just doubled over B.J. Upton's head and Buck Martinez says this:
"There are a lot of players around baseball, some of them in the Hall of Fame, that play much better in the big leagues than they ever played in the minor leagues. George Brett comes to mind as a guy that never hit .300 in the minor leagues and ends up with career 3,000 hits. I think Nolan Reimold is going to be one of those players that plays much better in the big leagues than he ever did in the minors."

1) George Brett debuted in the Majors at age 20, and won a Rookie of the Year award at age 21. I'm not sure he's really a valid comparison for the 25-year old Reimold.
2) In what world did Nolan Reimold not play well in the minor leagues? He hit at every level, if you ask me. Or the numbers.
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After the Signing Deadline

Stephen Strasburg got his money; the Orioles surpisingly signed Mychal Givens; and Toronto, Tampa Bay and Texas inexplicably failed miserably. And now we get the columns lamenting the fate of western society if baseball cannot fix the draft. Jayson Stark does an especially egregious job of shilling for the owners, so let's deconstruct his piece, point by point.

Only five starting pitchers on the entire free-agent market got packages bigger than that last winter: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster and Oliver Perez.

And Strasburg is guaranteed slightly more money than Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz were guaranteed for this season put together. Those guys own a combined nine Cy Young Awards. Strasburg has thrown a combined zero professional pitches.

Conveniently, Stark leaves out Kenshin Kawakami (3 years, $23 million), signed by the Braves this offseason and someone whose talent is nowhere close to Strasburg's. Asked in his chat yesterday about this very deal, Keith Law responded, "It's incredibly unfair to Strasburg. I doubt there's a team in baseball that would rather have Kawakami over the next three years than Strasburg." Not to mention that Koji Uehara signed a $10 million deal with the Orioles, and I'd bet the team doesn't regret that one bit. Besides, isn't saying that Oliver Perez received a whole lot of money more of an indictment of the Mets or the free agency process than of the the draft?

Law's comment, of course, brings up another point: Strasburg's deal isn't for three years; it's for four. And not only that, but the team will still control his rights (via arbitration) for another two years (at least) after that. Johnson (45), Martinez (37) and Smoltz (42) may have received less guaranteed money, but they also came with many fewer seasons of team control. Another red herring are those Cy Young awards cited: (smart) teams don't pay for past results; they pay for expected future performance. Only someone who'd been asleep for the last decade would have predicted a Cy Young award for any of those guys in 2009.

The Rockies -- a team that had to trade away Matt Holliday over the winter and a club that could afford to sign only one major league free agent (Alan Embree) -- tossed almost $4 million at another high school pitcher, Tyler Matzek.

Perhaps the Rockies felt that their money was best spent on bringing in young, high-end talent rather than retread veterans. The Rockies could clearly "afford" to sign more than one major league free agent; they apparently had $4 million in the bank. Nobody "forced" them to trade Matt Holliday; instead they acted in what they perceived to be the best interests of their ballclub. Given that the Rockies currently lead the NL wild card standings and that two of the players they received in the deal (Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez) are playing key roles in that run, I don't think they're too upset with the outcome, either. Even more so if the 23-year old Gonzalez's blossoming is real.

"So the big loser," said an official of one team, "is Bud and his slotting system. It got crushed. Some of these signings are off the charts. Look at some of this stuff in the later rounds. There's carnage all over the map."

[C]hange is coming. This draft isn't working. It hasn't for years. And now Selig's informal slotting system is being so widely ignored, you can bet this topic is heading for a bargaining table near you in 2011.

Yes, the big loser was Selig's ridiculous slotting system; that is indisputable. Teams that are willing to spend the money get the best players. Much less clear is how the draft hasn't been working for years. Washington, Seattle and San Diego all got their man, and while the Pirates did not spend a lot at number four, that was by design. Plus, last year they signed a Boras client (Pedro Alvarez). Teams that make smart decisions are able to pull together successful drafts for much less than the cost of three seasons of Danys Baez. I don't really see how that means the system is broken beyond repair.

SLOTTING -- Baseball is now the only major sport that doesn't have some sort of system that regulates how much drafted players can get paid. And that can't go on. Not just because the clubs want slotting, either. It's because players want it. We've polled a bunch of them. And big league players want those $15 million deals going to them, not to kids who have never played a professional baseball game.

Interestingly, baseball is also the only major sport with a powerful union; might that have something to do with slotting in other sports? Regardless, of course the players want that money to flow to them; I'd like for it to flow to me, too! I don't see how restricting a few million dollars (in total) from flowing to amateur prospects is going to drastically affect current player paychecks, though. Perhaps they can win a concession or two regarding free agency or arbitration eligibility, but that sounds like the owners cutting off their nose to spite their face if you ask me. Why would the owners want to give up a year of established player cost control just to keep the top few prospects from getting closer to their market value?

TRADING PICKS -- Now here's a concept the union is in favor of. So it seems just about inevitable that this is a new draft wrinkle that's coming soon. If you have the first pick and you don't want the price tag that comes with Stephen Strasburg, or you don't want the migraine that comes from dealing with Scott Boras, you pick him anyway and then dangle him on the open market.

I see nothing wrong with trading draft picks. Though I think "price tag" and "headache" are more likely to be thought of by teams as "value" associated with picking in a certain range.

WORLDWIDE DRAFT -- We're not sure if this on-again, off-again idea will ever fly. But it's gaining momentum again, because it needs to. A system that allows the Yankees and Red Sox to outspend everybody on any player they really want, with no limits whatsoever, doesn't serve anyone except the Yankees and Red Sox.

Damn those Yankees and Red Sox! I can't believe they are able to simply outspend and get all the good international players like... Wagner Mateo (Cardinals), Michael Ynoa (A's), Miguel Angel Sano (Pirates and O's interested), Kenshin Kawakami (Braves) and Koji Ueahara (O's)! Yes, they signed Dice-K, Matsui and the like, but, without doing all the hard research, the playing field really seems quite level in terms of international free agents.

THE CONTROL ROOM -- Another idea that's been building steam beneath the surface is a way for teams to wriggle out of the embarrassment of being held hostage by 17-year-old high school kids. What some people in the sport would like to see is a draft system similar to the hockey draft, which would allow any team picking a high school player to control that player's rights through his college years. "We need something to that effect," said an exec of one team, "just so you don't feel like you have no leverage as a club in those negotiations. So if you draft a kid out of high school and he says he's not ready to sign, after his sophomore year you can try to sign him again. And after his junior year you can try to sign him again. And then, if he still doesn't sign, after his senior year of college, then he goes back into the draft."

So, the league allows players to negotiate with only one team, forcing him to either take the contract offered or wait another full year before playing professional baseball, and it's the team that lacks leverage? Why is it that players seem to get close to their asking price? Perhaps its because the teams have crunched the numbers and realize that signing a top prospect for the cost of one or two seasons of a utility infielder or middle reliever is actually a really good deal.

And the big finish...

[A]ny system that's paying an 18-year-old amateur more than a five-time Cy Young winner needs more repairs than a 1962 Volkswagen.

Never mind, of course, that the "five-time Cy Young winner" (Randy Johnson) was actually the one who needed those repairs.

I'm all for trading draft picks; teams should be allowed to maximize their return on the draft. Perhaps the Nationals would have been better served trading the number one pick to the Diamondbacks and Angels for two first round picks, or to another team willing to give up prospects that are already in their system. But remember, the team giving up those picks would clearly value Strasburg (including the associated cost commitment) more highly than a few more lesser propspects. Whose to say which team is correct in its assessment?

I would also like if the deadline was moved forward; fans, players, and teams would all benefit if the staring-at-each-other period was shortened. Teams would get their players out to affiliates sooner; fans would be spared months of nonsense and get a chance to see prospects sooner, and players would gain certainty over their futures and get a few professional games under their belt the same season they're drafted. One suggestion that seems reasonable is to move the deadline forward a month. I've also seen it suggested that some upper level short-season leagues (like the NY Penn League) could be extended a month; I think that is also an interesting proposal.

Regardless, unless your goal is to give the owners more money and teams more control over the prospects they sign, most of the proposals out there to "fix" the draft aren't worth your time.

Dog Days

I'm on my way home tonight after (what looks to be) another disappointing Orioles loss, a frustrating start from David Hernandez (30+ pitches in the second inning) and more poor baserunning (this time from Cesar Izturis) underlining two disturbing trends. But let's make two things abundantly clear: 1) Izturis broke a fundamental baserunning rule and 2) Trembley had no choice but to ride Hernandez for as long as possible.

When you're in high school first learning baserunning on the large diamond, you are taught that if the ball is hit on the ground to your right you retreat to 2nd base; Izturis failed to heed that fundamental advice and paid the price. After 13 innings last night (and countless short outings from the rotation in recent weeks), the bullpen is gassed. If the O's were in a pennant race, I suspect that Trembley would have pulled Hernandez sooner; instead he tried to squeeze out a few extra outs and the Angels took advantage.

Unfortunately, with a rotation hampered by ineffectiveness (Guthrie, Berken), injury (Uehara, Bergesen), and usage constraints (Tillman, Matusz), Trembley really has no choice but to try and piece together games until rosters expand. This is likely to result in many more frustrating losses and irate messages from fans on BaltimoreSun.com blogs and message boards calling for the heads of Trembley and MacPhail and deeming the rebuilding a failure; don't listen to the nonsense. With the Huff trade today, Reimold and Pie are going to get a chance to play daily, the young starters are getting their feet wet and the plan is on schedule. If the O's are in this same position a year from now we can all hit the panic button. Until then, the club is a work in progress.
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T-Shirt Monday

Such a tough choice!!!

Greedy Stephen Strasburg

It's draft signing deadline, and you know what that means! Just like last year with Brian Matusz, lots of grumpy people complaining about Stephen Strasburg!! Fortunately, Joe Sheehan hits the nail on the head:

"The time from draft day to the signing deadline is the only time for perhaps a decade—and perhaps ever—that a player has any kind of negotiating leverage. Once he signs with a team, that team owns him until he accumulates six full seasons of major league service time. How can you possibly blame a person for wanting to
maximize his return on the only negotiation in which he’ll have any leverage for at least six years, possibly an entire decade, and in many cases ever? The idea, popular among players and ex-players who seem to have no grasp of the structure under which they play, that a draftee should just sign for whatever’s available and start his career because he’ll get paid if he performs, that's just laughable on its face...Stephen Strasburg could win Rookie of the Year and finish third in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2010, and make $400,000 in 2011. He could be even better in '11, racking up a ton of innings as the Nationals make a wild-card push, and make $400,000 in 2012. The next time Strasburg will be able to do more than just ask for money, entirely at the team’s mercy to give it to him, is the winter of 2012-13. The first time he’ll be able to negotiate with more than one team is the winter of 2015-16, unless the Nationals diddle with his time on the roster, in which case it’ll be 2016-17. That’s a long time from now. That’s a lot of innings from now, and he might never get there—he might be great, like Prior, out of the box, and never get paid because that’s how the system is set up."