Second Half Poll

I've decided to run my very first poll here at the Bird's Nest; check out the sidebar and vote.  I'll report the results next week.

Question: Where will the Orioles select in the 2011 First Year Player Draft?

Here are two valuable resources for research:
coolstandings.com
baseballprospectus.com

A (Very) Few Positives

I said I wasn't going to write again until I had something positive to say.  Well, I don't have much yet, but I want to start blogging again, so let's give it a whirl...

1) Brian Matusz turned in a very good start on Saturday night, needing 96 pitches to turn in a final line of 8.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, and 4 K.  He didn't walk anyone, but he did give up two home runs.  I'd like to see a few more ground balls (11:14 GB:FB ratio) but that rate is much improved from earlier in the season (interestingly, as he's given up more ground balls, he's concurrently given up more home runs. Such is the Orioles).
2) Adam Jones is hot.  From June 3 to June 13, he's hitting .324/.390/.514 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and 8 RBI.  He's also drawn 3 walks (matching his May and exceeding his April total) and was hit by a pitch in another at-bat.  Sure he's struck out 9 times in 10 games, but again, focus on the positives.
3) Jake Arrieta: 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 walks (I refuse to count the INT ones), 6 K, 3 ER in his Major League debut.  Against the Yankees, too!
4) David Hernandez earned his first career save, and blew some 97 mph cheddar in the process.  Since moving to the bullpen, he's accumulated 7.1 IP, allowed 3 hits and 1 run while striking out 6 and walking 3.  Maybe not lights out, but promising.
5) Zach Britton is a ground ball machine.  Across 77.1 innings for the Baysox, he has an eye-popping 64.8% ground ball rate.  Against lefty batters, he has more strikeouts (23) than hits allowed (21) and nearly as many K's as walks (4) plus hits.
6) Nick Markakis just keeps walking.  At 13.1%, his walk rate isn't quite as high as his 2008 season (14.2%), but I'll certainly take it on this team of hackers.  While I'd like to see him pull the ball in order to pop a few more home runs (1.1% HR rate vs. 2.7% career), seeing him lace a double to left center is still a thing of beauty.
7) Garrett Atkins has played just three times this month (2-for-8) and I can't imagine that he'll get significant playing time again this season.

Look, that's seven things to be happy about!  Unfortunately, none of them involve Orioles wins.  Alas, maybe next time.

Bergesen Batting

Brad Bergesen came to bat yesterday in the top of the sixth inning yesterday having thrown 98 pitches.  There were two men on and two outs in the inning, and the Orioles held a 6-3 lead.  Inexplicably, Dave Trembley let Bergesen hit; Bergesen grounded out and the rally was snuffed out.  In the bottom of the inning, Bergesen gave up a single, a triple and a single and was pulled from the game.

What the hell was Trembley thinking?  Yes, I realize the bullpen was shortstaffed thanks to Koji's elbow soreness.  But this is why they carry two long men!  Berken was unavailable after Brian Matusz's short outing on Thursday, but Mark Hendrickson hadn't pitched since taking David Hernandez's turn on May 16.  It is simply inexcusable that Trembley would allow his struggling starter to bat in that situation in the 6th inning and then immediately turn to that very same long man just 3 batters later.

Which is why I'm flabbergasted that the O's MLB.com beat writer penned this: "Was it the right move? No. But it was his only move."  False.  Mark Hendrickson has a spot on this roster for this exact situation.  Pinch hitting for Bergesen and going to your long man is not only the right move, it is the only move.  What game was she watching?

On another note, if Koji had elbow soreness that originated during his outing in Texas, what the hell was the team doing adding another bench player instead of a pitcher when they called up Scott Moore on Friday?  I understand if you don't want Alberto Castillo in the 'pen, but does it really make sense to go shorthanded, especially after Matusz only lasted 2.1 IP on Thursday and Hernandez and Bergesen are the next two starting pitchers? 

This season has become an unmitigated disaster.  Between the Garrett Atkins signing, the fiasco of Mike Gonzalez's injury, Brian Roberts being pushed to come back quickly from his back injury, Matt Wieters never getting a day off, a plethora of ridiculous bullpen decisions, and the complete and utter failure of the young hitting to make progress, it's time for change.  Dave Trembley needs to go.  Now.  And that he isn't is another strike against Andy MacPhail.  I've been patient, realizing that rebuilding from within takes time.  The young pitching is oh-so-very-close to making a real impact.  But the rest of the club?  Wow.  They can't hit, they can't play defense, and the coaching staff doesn't seem equipped to help them improve.  What are you waiting for, Andy?  This is unacceptable.

The Orioles and Sabermetrics

Sparked by a comment about Reggie Jackson's one season in Baltimore, I was surfing Baseball-Reference.com today and clicked on Ken Singleton.  I was amazed.

Singleton's career spanned 15 seasons, from 1970 to 1984, the final 10 of which he spent in an Orioles uniform (note: I was born in 1981, so I can't really remember his career).  After playing his first two seasons with the Mets, he was traded to the Expos for Rusty Staub.  In Montreal, he had three very good seasons, including a monster 1973 campaign where he led the league in on-base percentage, hit 23 homers and drove in 103 runs.  A "disappointing" 1975 season (he only hit 9 homers en route to a 110 OPS+) led the Expos to trade Singleton to the O's for a 31-year old Dave McNally (who would pitch 77.1 innings in 1975 and then retire), Rich Coggins (a speedy outfielder who peaked in 1973 at age 22), and AAA pitcher Bill Kirkpatrick (who would never reach the Majors).

In his first seven seasons with the O's, Singleton was among the very best players in the American League.  He hit .298/.403/.471, numbers good enough for a 149 OPS+ (interestingly, his slash line an awful lot like another underappreciated Orioles rightfielder), but he only managed to make three All-Star teams.  He was 2nd in the MVP balloting in 1979 (35 homers and 111 RBI, but Don Baylor, who hit behind Rod Carew's .419 OBP, drove in 139) and 3rd in 1977 (when Carew hit .388 and posted a 178 OPS+).  All told, Singleton finished his career with a .282/.388/.436 line, good enough for a 132 OPS+ (remember, the 1970s favored pitchers, generally, and Memorial Stadium favored pitchers, specifically).

Shockingly, Ken Singleton did not receive a single vote for the Hall of Fame in 1990. Not. A. Single. Vote.  And why not?  Because he didn't hit home runs or accumulate big RBI totals.  Jim Rice, career OPS+ 128, is in the Hall of Fame, yet a reasonable case can be made that Singleton was actually a better player than Rice.  So what's my point?

Orioles fans grew up on sabermetrics; we just didn't realize it.  Ken Singleton is exactly the type of player saberists love but who goes underappreciated: he doesn't hit tons of homers or put up big RBI totals, but he gets on base a ton.  Earl Weaver understood this, which is why Baltimore was the perfect fit for Singleton.  And it's also what makes Baltimore fans so frustrated with this year's team.

Miguel Tejada racks up gaudy RBI totals (or, at least he did in a previous life), but only gets on base 34% of the time.  Adam Jones swings at everything.  The manager fails to put relievers in a position to succeed.  The defense is awful.  Outfielders throw to the wrong base.  I can go on and on.

The Oriole Way was the original sabermetrics way: pitching, fundamentals, and the 3-run homer.  I hope the O's figure out a way to bring it back someday.

Strength of Schedule

Early in the 2010 season, the Orioles have played a very difficult schedule.  They have faced the Rays (21-7) six times, the Blue Jays (17-13) three times, the A's (15-14) four times, the Mariners three times (11-17), the Red Sox six times (15-14), the Yankees six times (19-8) and the Twins once (19-10).  Even if you take the Orioles games out of those records, only the Mariners (8-17) and A's (12-13) are teams playing below .500 against the rest of baseball.  Anecdotally, it also seems as if the Orioles have faced exceptionally good starting pitchers almost every night.  Does the data support that perception?  In a word, yes.

Opponents' starters have absolutely dominated the Orioles this season.  In 29 games, starting pitchers have thrown an average of nearly 6 2/3 IP per start, allowing just 7.8 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 6.3 K/9 on their way to a 2.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.  In other words, the Orioles offense has turned every opposing pitcher into one that would rank T9 in the American League in ERA.  Who would that pitcher be tied with?  Zack Greinke.  You'll also notice from that list several pitchers that have made multiple starts against the Orioles, including A.J. Burnett (5), Matt Garza (7), Jeff Niemann (8), and C.C. Sabathia (11).

Taken in aggregate, starting pitchers in the American League have pitched 2,217.1 innings against non-Orioles offenses with a 4.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  Combined (including double counting all pitchers that have made multiple starts against the Orioles), the starter's the Orioles have faced have a 3.68 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 762.1 IP against non-Orioles opponents.  So, yes, the starter pitchers the Orioles have faced this season are significantly better than league average.

Frustration

I'm betting this next statement won't come as a complete surprise, especially if you've been following @theorioleway on Twitter: I'm frustrated.  A 1-9 start to the season is never a good thing, but especially not so when a team's next 22 games are three more in Oakland, at Seattle, at Boston, home against the Yankees and BoSox, at the Yankees and at the Twins.  Those are all legitimate playoff contenders; a truly scary record on the order of 7-24 (or worse) is a very realistic possibility.

Losses happen.  Teams go through rough patches.  It's early.  I get it.  But it's not so much the losing that has me frustrated, but the way the club is losing.  Let's make a list:

1) The Orioles are an incredible 10-for-70 with runners in scoring position.  That's a .143 batting average.
2) Orioles hitters are seeing just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance, 28th in baseball (3.87 is average).
3) The relief pitching has been brutal, especially late in games: in innings 7-9, the staff as a whole is allowing an eye-popping .313/.375/.565 line.
4) The defense is once again shoddy: the O's .664 defensive efficiency rating ranks 26th in the Majors.
5) The club has wasted several excellent starting pitching outings.
6) Injuries to Brian Roberts, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold have hurt both the offense and the defense.
7) Garret Atkins is batting .222/.243/.333; Miguel Tejada, .205/.279/.410.

So other than a good offensive approach, clutch hitting, pitching, and defense, things are going swimmingly.

Eventually, someone will get a hit with runners in scoring position (please?).  But those other items have the potential to be glaring trends for 2010.  Tejada, Izturis, Atkins and others are pretty hacktastic.  Especially with the injury/ineffectiveness concerns with Mike Gonzalez, this bullpen is not very (ok, any) good.  While the outfield defense might be acceptable or even good, any infield that has Tejada, Wigginton and Atkins "flashing" the leather isn't going to turn many hits into outs.  And injuries have played an important part in past late season collapses; with Roberts and Pie both hurting and Reimold still recovering from offseason surgery, do the O's have a training staff capable of getting them back on the field and healthy?

Now that we've got the pessimism out of the way, are there any positives we can take from the early going?  Unequivocally, yes.  As always, caveat emptor on the sample size.

1) Brian Matusz is going to be a stud.  I am 100% convinced.  I may not be convinced that the Orioles shouldn't have drafted Justin Smoak instead, but I am really, really excited for the Brian Matusz era.
2) Millwood and Guthrie have both been effective in the early going.
3) Matt Wieters and Felix Pie have been the team's best hitters.  Wieters I fully expected, but we have to be thrilled that Pie has maintained the progress he made late last season.
4) Nick Markakis has is walking again.  After walking in 14.2% of his plate appearances in 2008, he took a free pass just 7.9% of the time in 2009.  In 2010, he's back up to 22.7%.  He's currently suffering from a .259 BAbip (career: .327).  His line drive percentage (14.7%) may look low, but with only 27 balls in play (33 at-bats minus 7 strikeouts + 1 sac fly), he's only missing one liner from his career rate (4/27 = 15%, 5/27 = 18.5%).  If we normalize his BAbip, he'd be hitting .273 and no one would be worried.

See, things aren't so bad, right?

Last season, I set three goals for the 2009 Orioles:

What would make this a successful season? I think three things:

1) Matt Wieters establishes himself as an offensive force behind the plate.
2) Felix Pie and Adam Jones show that they are long-term solutions in the outfield.
3) The young pitching does not suffer any significant development set-backs.

Results were mixed on the first two, but the third was undoubtedly achieved.  Since it looks like we're in for a really long year in the loss column, what will make the 2010 Orioles a success?

1) Pitching, pitching and more pitching.  Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton, Troy Patton, Jake Arrietta.  Stay healthy.  Keep improving.
2) The young core group of hitters keeps improving: are Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold the middle of a championship caliber line-up (and I think they can be)?  Is Felix Pie* really breaking out?  Can Josh Bell and/or Brandon Snyder take over a corner?
3) Continue to infuse the organization with young talent.  This might mean trading Kevin Millwood or Jeremy Guthrie, and it definitely means using the #3 pick in the upcoming draft to take an impact player.

*Since I have completely neglected my blogging duties lately, I'm just now getting a chance to comment on Pie's thrilling score from first on a single during the home opener.  I was sitting high along the first base line and had the perfect view of the play.  He was dead in the water (I believe my exact words as he was rounding third base were "He's out by a mile") with a perfect throw, but as we know, perfection is difficult.  Great hustle, and I love the gutsy call by Juan Samuel.  I can't find it right now, but I think I remember seeing research that shows 3B coaches as way too conservative, so I love the aggressiveness.

If those first two goals are met, I think the wins will be there by the end of the season, especially if the offense comes around.  Not all of those young pitchers need to get starts in Baltimore this year; breaking them into the big leagues as relievers is perfectly acceptable.  We also need to be prepared to deal veterans like Guthrie, Millwood, Tejada and Luke Scott at the cost of a few wins in August and September.  While I think the chance for a surprisingly good outcome still exists, a slow start really steepens the climb.  2011 and 2012 are still the goal.

Finally, one last word on Dave Trembley: things are getting ugly.  This from Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

Since I spent the last few days in the Baltimore/DC area, catching three games at Camden Yards, forgive me if I'm a bit more concerned with the O's than most. (Given the crowds over the three-game sweep, I might be one of very few.) It's flat out a mess in the O's bullpen right now, and it seems like Dave Trembley has lost them, if not the whole clubhouse. The tension is palpable there, and many think that Trembley might not be long for the job. His handling of the Gonzalez situation, throwing him under the bus so quickly and then questioning his DL move, is a real puzzler. Gonzalez's "mechanical work" is something that could have been taken care of in camp if Trembley's handling of the vets in camp hadn't been so lax. Now that they need to DL him, the shoulder strain is enough to pass muster and fill in the slot after Trembley burned through the pen willy-nilly. It's one thing to lose a closer, and another thing to completely lose touch with a pen's strengths and weaknesses. Gonzalez's stint likely won't be too long. He was scheduled to come back to the pen early next week after working on the side, so assume that it should be about the minimum. If there's any positive, it's that Uehara is throwing and looking like he'll be ready to get back to the pen by late April. His presence could work a lot of ways. He could be a smoothing option for the long role or slot into the closer role, since Trembley seems to have more confidence in him than Gonzalez.

I think my feelings about Dave Trembley have been made pretty clear: he can't handle a bullpen, he can't fill out a lineup card, and he hasn't (for whatever reason) been able to get this team to play solid, fundamentally sound baseball.  If he's starting to lose the clubhouse (and, as outsiders, we have no idea if this is the case), the best thing to do will be to get rid of him as quickly as possible.  I don't mean to make him a scapegoat for all that's wrong with the Orioles; he's been a good soldier and says (almost) all the right things.  But I don't think he is a good manager.
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2010 Baltimore Birds Nest Projection, Part I

Hard as it may be to believe, spring training is barely two weeks away. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Orioles roster is shaping up for 2010.

By my count, 23 of the 25 roster spots are spoken for. We can assume the Orioles will keep 13 position players and 12 pitchers. First, the position players:

CA: Matt Wieters, Craig Tatum
IF: Brian Roberts, Cesar Izturis, Miguel Tejada, Garrett Atkins, Ty Wigginton, Robert Andino
OF: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie
DH: Luke Scott

I’m giving the 13th spot to Robert Andino since he is the only back-up available to play shortstop and second base (except maybe Justin Turner), meaning that both Michael Aubrey and Luis Montanez are likely off the roster. At this point, I think it is once again fair to scratch our heads at the Garrett Atkins signing. Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder and Justin Turner are dark horses to make the team out of spring training, but each could make his Baltimore debut sometime in 2010.

On to the pitchers:

SP: Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman
RP: Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith, Mark Hendrickson

Two relievers will come from this group: David Hernandez, Alberto Castillo, Matt Albers, Jason Berken, Kam Mickolio, Armando Gabino, and Wilfrido Perez. Waiting in the wings, the Orioles have Jake Arrietta, Brandon Erbe and Troy Patton who, while currently starting pitchers, could easily fill bullpen roles if no spots open up in the rotation.

In 2009, the Orioles allowed 876 (rank: 14, league average: 771) runs while scoring 741 (rank: 11, league average: 781) runs for a Pythagorean record of 69-93, five games better than their actual record of 64-98. Thanks to Dave Cameron, I know we can’t stop there. According to WAR, the Orioles received 15.8 WAR from their offense (including pitcher hitting) and 7.5 WAR from their pitchers. Since replacement level in 2009 was about 46 wins, the Orioles are actually about a 69 win team according to WAR. Thus, since the two methods agree, I’m very comfortable working with a baseline performance of 69 wins from the 2009 Orioles.

Thus, in order to make a run at .500 in 2010, the Orioles need to improve by about 120 or 130 runs. The fastest way for this team to make up those runs will be to improve the pitching staff, and my early analysis shows that they will do just that. Last season, Orioles starting pitchers threw 877.2 innings, compiling a cringe inducing 5.37 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. According to FIP, that ERA was no fluke either. The starters allowed 154 homers, walked 299 and struck out just 533; that’s a FIP of 5.38. Fortunately, the starting pitching projects to be much improved for 2010.

(Note: For each of the pitchers below, I’m taking a weighted average of three readily available projection systems: Bill James, PECOTA, and CHONE, except for Brian Matusz, who does not have a Bill James projection.)

Kevin Millwood: 174.0 IP, 194.7 H, 21.0 HR, 58.3 BB, 5.0 HBP, 113.3 K, 4.56 FIP
Jeremy Guthrie: 192.7 IP, 200.3 H, 27.0 HR, 62.0 BB, 5.7 HBP, 115.7 K, 4.87 FIP
Brad Bergesen: 148.7 IP, 164.7 H, 17.7 HR, 42.7 BB, 8 HBP, 74.3 K, 4.77 FIP
Brian Matusz: 109.5 IP, 117.5 H, 15.0 HR, 42.0 BB, 1.0 HBP, 85.0 K, 4.61 FIP
Chris Tillman: 137.0 IP, 143.7 H, 19.3 HR, 58.7 BB, 8.3 HBP, 112.0 K, 4.87 FIP
Combined: 761.8 IP, 820.8 H, 100.0 HR, 263.6 BB, 28.0 HBP, 500.3 K, 4.74 FIP

Now, normally a team will need about 975 innings out of its starting pitchers (162 * 6 IP = 972 innings), meaning the Orioles have about 200 innings unaccounted for in the above projections. While it would be awfully nice to give 75 of those to Brian Matusz (Matusz threw 157.2 including the minors last season) and Chris Tillman (161.2 combined), let’s instead be conservative and give those 200 innings a replacement level-ish 250 hits, 30 homers, 100 walks, and 130 strikeouts; that works out to a FIP of 5.35. Our new combined starting pitcher line: 961.8 IP, 1070.8 H, 130.0 HR, 363.7 BB, 28.0 HBP, 630.3 K, 4.87 FIP. Some quick subtraction shows that this year’s staff is 0.50 runs per nine innings better than last year’s version (5.38 – 4.87 = 0.51). That’s a savings of about 50 runs over last season. You’ll quickly notice that a 0.10 difference in FIP equates to 10 runs, or one win; keep that in mind when we start to do a bit of sensitivity analysis around these projections.

Moving on to the bullpen, the 2009 ‘pen threw 550.1 innings, posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (613 H, 64 HR, 232 BB, 400 K, 4.49 FIP). Now, FIP is a bit less reliable for relievers, but it’s the best I can offer; plus, there doesn’t seem to be any clear bias in the data one way or the other. Let’s look at our bullpen projections for this season.

Mike Gonzalez: 60.7 IP, 50.0 H, 6.0 HR, 25.0 BB, 2.3 HBP, 64.0 K, 3.73 FIP
Koji Uehara: 58.3 IP, 60.3 H, 7.0 HR, 15.0 BB, 0.0 HBP, 44.7 K, 4.00 FIP
Jim Johnson: 63.7 IP, 68.7 H, 7.3 HR, 24.7 BB, 2.0 HBP, 41.3 K, 4.66 FIP
Cla Meredith: 65.7 IP, 73.7 H, 6.7 HR, 20.7 BB, 1.7 HBP, 41.3 K, 4.28 FIP
Combined: 248.3 IP, 252.7 H, 27.0 HR, 85.3 BB, 6.0 HBP, 191.3 K, 4.18 FIP

(Note: I'm not using the Mark Hendrickson projections since they seem to be giving him waaay too many innings. I'm just going to roll him into the replacement level below.)

To play a full season, a team needs 1,450 innings from its pitching staff. We’ve now projected 1,210.1 between the starting rotation and the top four relievers, meaning we need 240 more innings. We’ll give those a FIP of 5.00 (240.0 IP, 275 H, 30 HR, 120 BB, 160 K) since we would expect replacement level pitchers in the bullpen to be just a bit better than our replacement pitchers in the rotation (mainly because many of those replacement starters are going to see some time in the bullpen, and they're numbers out of the 'pen should be better than their numbers as starters). The combined relief pitcher line: 488.3 IP, 527.7 H, 57.0 HR, 205.3 BB, 6.0 HBP, 160.0 K, 4.58 FIP. Unfortunately, that’s right about the same level as last year’s bullpen.

Now, that does not mean this year’s ‘pen won’t actually be better than last year’s version. Mike Gonzalez should be a pretty fair approximation for the George Sherrill that was so impressive for the first four months of the season, and I’m very optimistic that Koji Uehara will take nicely to a bullpen role. If that happens, Dave Trembley should be able to use Johnson and Meredith in situations where they face better match-ups, and likewise for the remainder of the bullpen. In addition, last year’s pen actually allowed a bit more runs than their FIP would suggest. I’m comfortable projecting a 0.2 runs per nine innings improvement for the bullpen this year, or about 11 runs better than last season.

Adding up the rotation and the bullpen, here is the combined projected pitching line for 2010: 1,450.2 IP, 1,598.5 H, 187.0 HR, 569.0 BB, 34.0 HBP, 981.7 K, 4.77 FIP. That works out to about 775 earned runs allowed for the Orioles. Add in 35 unearned runs, and I project the club to allow a total of 810 runs for 2010. In other words, the Orioles figure to improve by about six wins on the mound in 2010.

Up next: Part II (The Offense).
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Projection Season Begins

The 2010 Projection Season is here! Baseball Prospectus pegs the O's for 79 wins, which is looking to be right about where I think the O's finish as well. I'm hoping to get my season preview up this weekend, but that is entirely dependent on finishing homework for Monday's and Tuesday's class.

Update, 7:58 PM: BP reports that there are problems with the data. I'll repost once they have it fixed.

Update, Feb 3, 7:20 PM: The link above should be to good data again. 80 wins for the O's.
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2010 Orioles Preview

Well, this should get me to the front of the line on season previews...

As we all know, 2009 was a disappointing season in the loss column, but the Orioles made significant progress in their rebuilding efforts, breaking in rookies Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, and others. Still, there were set-backs: Adam Jones suffered another season ending injury, Nick Markakis took a step back, and Brandon Snyder struggled upon being promoted to AAA. There is still much work to be done to remake this team into a contender, but the club is still on the right track. Let's look ahead to potential offseason moves and what we can expect from the O's next season.

In 2009, the Orioles had a payroll of $67.1 mm, virtually identical to 2008's $67.2 mm, and the club has $30.1 mm in commitments for 2010. Throw in about $20 mm to cover minimum salaries for the rest of the roster and arbitration raises for eligibles Matt Albers, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Ray, Cla Meredith, and Luke Scott, and the Orioles have some significant money to play with this offseason. Where should they spend it?

Based on players currently in the organization, here is the projected 2010 roster, making room for 12 pitchers and 13 position players:

CA: Matt Wieters
1B:
2B: Brian Roberts
3B:
SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH:

BN: Luke Scott
BN: Felix Pie
BN: Robert Andino
BN: Ty Wiggington
Others: Michael Aubrey, Justin Turner, Lou Montanez

S1: Jeremy Guthrie (R)
S2: Brian Matusz (L)
S3: Chris Tillman (R)
S4: Brad Bergesen (R)
S5:

R1 - 7: Koji Uehara (R), Jim Johnson (R), Chris Ray (R), Matt Albers (R), Cla Meredith (R), Dennis Sarfate (R), Brian Bass (R), Jason Berken (R), David Hernandez (R), Kam Mickolio (R), etc.

There are a few glaring holes that need to be addressed: third base, first base, starting pitcher and left-handed relief pitcher. Additionally, I'm sure the team would love to upgrade shortstop and designated hitter, finding a long-term solution for the middle of the infield and pushing Luke Scott into a platoon role (career vs RHP: .269/.355/.506; vs LHP: .249/.330/.458). Let's explore the options for each position.

Third Base: Internally, the only option is recently acquired Josh Bell, who will play 2010 at the age of 23. He enjoyed a true break-out season at the plate in AA this year, batting .295/.376/.516 with 20 home runs between the Dodgers and Orioles organizations, but he's still a bit rough around the edges defensively (7 errors in just 50 chances since the trade) and his approach from the right-side of the plate is still a work in progress. Bell is clearly the best long-term option for the position, but pushing him to the Major Leagues next season would, at best, be an aggressive move. On the free agent market, there are several players that could provide a bridge between the departed Melvin Mora and Bell, including Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Joe Crede, and Pedro Feliz. None of those guys is likely to require a long-term contract, unlike Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins. I doubt, however, that the Orioles would be willing to hand over a draft pick to sign any of those players, making Type B free agents DeRosa and Glaus unlikely (assuming their former clubs offer arbitration, of course).

First Base: After earning a promotion to Norfolk, Brandon Snyder struggled mightily, posting a .248/.316/.355 line with just two home runs in 262 at-bats. Drafted as a catcher, scouts question whether he will ever hit with enough power to be an every day first baseman. The free agent market doesn't offer much in the way of help, either. Carlos Delgado (38), Nick Johnson (31), and Adam LaRoche (30), all Type B free agents, are the most "attractive" names out there. One (far fetched) option would be the trade market; rumors continue to swirl that the Padres and Brewers would be willing to deal Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, respectively, though Andy MacPhail doesn't seem too keen on trading away any of the prized young pitchers it would take to acquire such a power bat. One option I've long advocated is buying Nolan Reimold a first baseman's mitt. He's not exactly a gold glover in the outfield, and with Felix Pie's strong finish, this move could have the effect of improving both the offense and the defense.

Designated Hitter: Ideally, the Orioles would add a right-handed bat to the mix here. The deepest pool on the free agent market is clearly corner outfield/DH (Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Rick Ankiel, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero, the corpse of Jermaine Dye, etc.), so maybe the O's will get lucky like the Angels and Nationals did last winter with Abreu and Dunn and be able to sign a solid hitter for less than the expected wins he can provide. Again, though, the compensation pick would work against the Orioles signing one of these players, but many of these guys are likely to not be offered arbitration.

Starting Pitcher: Until the team gives the keys to Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe, they'll need someone else to pitch every fifth day. The best pitcher on the market, John Lackey, will command too high a price tag, and the quality drops off quickly thereafter. Upside injury plays like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, and Justin Duchscherer can't be counted on to provide very many innings, Jason Marquis, Vicente Padilla, and Randy Wolf carry the giant "WARNING: National League Pitcher" tag, and while future Hall-of-Famers Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson may harken back to the good ol' days of the 1990s, they aren't likely to come to Baltimore.

Relief Pitcher: There are lots of "closers" on the market (Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, and Jose Valverde), but I hope the team has learned its lesson with high priced reliever imports (I'm looking at you, Danys Baez). Given the resurgence in pitching depth within the organization, I'm confident the team can piece together a bullpen capable of holding leads. Koji Uehara, David Hernandez, and perhaps Troy Patton could all be starters-turned-relievers that provide a significant boost to the 'pen, Chris Ray and Jim Johnson may bounce back from disappointing 2009 seasons, and young arms like Wilfrido Perez, Bob McCrory and Steve Johnson could blossom. Relief pitcher performance is highly variable, and the team has lots of internal options.

Defense: One item I've only touched on above is defense. Teams that have made rapid improvements in recent years (like the Rays, Rangers and Mariners) all had one thing in common: they vastly improved their defense. The Orioles ranked 26th in 2009 in defensive efficiency, converting just 68.2% of batted balls into outs. The Orioles set out on the path to improving the defense last year, bringing in Cesar Izturis, but Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis all slipped defensively this past year, with each posting well below average UZR ratings. Nolan Reimold, too, doesn't seem to be helping things with his play in left field. I'm not terribly worried about Jones and Markakis (they still rate highly according to the fans), but the trend in the numbers for Brian Roberts is very worrisome.

Recommendations & Outlook: At this point, the Orioles most glaring need is for a middle-of-the-lineup power bat. The only ones on the free agent market, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, are well positioned to earn lucrative long-term contracts from some combination of the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Cardinals or another mystery team, and they do not play the position the Orioles would like most to fill (first base). Thus, MacPhail needs to at least explore the trade market for Gonzalez or Fielder. He's wise not to trade Tillman or Matusz, but Arrieta, Erbe, and Zach Britton shouldn't be considered untouchable. He may also want to kick the tires on prospect Yonder Alonso (blocked in Cincinnati by Joey Votto). First base looks like it will be a difficult position to fill adequately, unless we can figure out a way to void Mark Teixeira's contract.

At third, waiting for Bell seems like the best bet. Perhaps he will surprise in spring training and make the club on Opening Day, but the Matt Wieters timeline seems more likely. Thus, a stopgap is necessary, meaning the club will likely sign someone like Joe Crede or Troy Glaus (if he is not offered arbitration). Glaus could be an attractive option since he could also DH in an attempt to stay healthy.

Pitching wise, as much as the team "needs" a "veteran" to "lead" the staff (or so I've been told by the Sun commenters), there really isn't much out there worth the risk or investment. If the team could somehow sign John Lackey for four years and $50 million, I'd be all for it. There would seem to be about as much chance of that happening as me becoming the designated hitter next year, though. Thus, I think we're looking at another season of Mark Hendrickson-esque retreads until Arrieta and/or Erbe reach Baltimore.

As for the outlook for 2010, barring a significant move to acquire Gonzalez or Fielder, this team doesn't have the horses necessary to compete in the AL East; they won't yet score or prevent enough runs to keep up with Boston, New York and Tampa Bay on a nightly basis. However, there is significant upside with the starting pitching. I expect Jeremy Guthrie to bounce back and be a league average starter, and Tillman and Matusz both have top of the rotation potential. Young pitchers are always a wild card, but these two guys have the stuff to succeed next year. As much as I'm hoping otherwise, I expect that Bergesen will regress; he just doesn't have the stuff to keep pitching like he did last year. Still, if Arrieta and Erbe establish themselves, the rotation could go from one of the worst in baseball (2009) to one of the best in a hurry. MacPhail is right that the goal for 2010 shifts to wins and losses, but lets not get our hopes up too much yet. Hitting the .500 mark in 2010 would be an excellent accomplishment.
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Corner Infielders

Yesterday, reader Legends commented in response to my post about the Michael Aubrey trade:

Definitely need to upgrade at the corners. Huff and Mora are not the answers. Is Salazar an option, what could the O's expect from Snyder? Reimold to first?

This echoes my own thoughts on the 2010 Orioles, where third base and first base are the only unsettled positions based on players currently under contract. Given that the young pitching appears poised to reach Baltimore either later this year or at the beginning of next, the Orioles are approaching competitiveness and will need to address these two holes. Let's look at their options.

Internal:
Oscar Salazar - In 81 at-bats in 2008, Salazar posted a .284/.372/.506 line with 5 homers, 12 walks and 13 strikeouts. He was also 30 years old and seeing his first significant big league action. In 2009, Salazar warranted a call-up from Norfolk, where he was batting .372/.408/.618 in 199 at-bats. Unfortunately, Salazar's career minor league numbers are nowhere near this good (which is why he's 31 and never seen significant big league opportunity): .287/.343/.469. Salazar makes for a nice story, but it's extremely unlikely that he's capable of being an everyday first baseman.
Nolan Reimold/Luke Scott - With the caveat that I've never seen either play first base, neither is an exceptional outfielder. It could be that the Orioles find it easier to bring in another left fielder and shift one of these guys to first base duty, with the other manning the DH slot. Too bad Felix Pie isn't working out.
Lou Montanez - See Salazar, Oscar. A great 2008 season at Bowie sparked the interest of many, but Montanez was 26 and in Double A. He's probably not an everyday player.
Brandon Snyder - Despite the populist sentiment to move Snyder to third base (check the comments), I'm not sure you could find a single scout anywhere in the country who thinks that's a realistic option. He is, however, making a huge leap with the bat this season. After posting a .343/.421/.597 line at Bowie, he moved up to Norfolk last week, and after a bit of a slow start, he's got a double and a triple (so far) in today's game. If this break out is for real, could we see a September call-up? Though the Orioles were conservative with Reimold and Wieters, I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation if he has three successful months in Norfolk.
Michael Aubrey - Acquired just yesterday, Aubrey is a former first round draft pick that has never quite put it all together. He brings organizational depth, but much like Salazar and Montanez, we can't really put much hope in his suddenly figuring it out.
Aubrey Huff - After posting big numbers in 2008, Huff has looked much more like the 2007 version thus far this season: .280/.337/.442 in 2007, .267/.333/.443 in 2009. Unfortunately, those numbers also look suspiciously like 2005 and 2006 Huff as well (.263/.331/.446 combined). I wouldn't be opposed to a short, inexpensive contract to bring Huff back for 2010 and perhaps 2011, but he is clearly not a clean-up hitter for a team with any hopes of contending. He's a .270/.335/.450 hitter, and the Orioles should look to upgrade if possible.
Melvin Mora - Unless something drastic happens, there is roughly a .01% chance that the Orioles pick up Mora's $8mm option (choosing instead the $1mm buyout) for 2010. He's currently producing to the tune of a .668 OPS, and at age 37, his best days are far behind him.

External:
The Orioles have some potential trade bait to use before the deadline: Aubrey Huff, Danys Baez, Luke Scott, and George Sherrill are all likely to draw at least some kicking-the-tires interest. Unfortunately, none are likely to bring back anything near an impact corner infielder. Given the presence of Snyder and the possible, if not exactly desirable, options for filling first base internally, the Orioles need to focus on picking up a third baseman. Alas, the offseason free agent class is not exactly the most intriguing, and there aren't many prospects to be had in the minors. At this point, I have no suggestions for Mr. MacPhail. Let's hope he can come up with a creative solution.
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2010 Orioles

In yesterday's edition of Future Shock, Kevin Goldstein includes Jake Arrieta, and makes a very interesting comment regarding the future of the Orioles pitching staff:

Arrieta was certainly dealing at Double-A, striking out 70 over 59 innings and limiting the Eastern League to a .208 batting average, but it was still surprising to see him bumped up to Triple-A. Not that he didn't deserve it—he did pitch six two-hit innings in his Norfolk debut—but it's surprising in what the move might say about his timetable. The Orioles have already looked at a lot of young arms this year at the big-league level, but they've stayed away from the premium guys like Chris Tillman. Now that he's joined in Triple-A by Arrieta, one wonders if they're simply lining up all of the pieces for a September look and a permanent installation in April 2010 as starters.

A few weeks back, I disputed a Peter Schmuck notion that the Orioles window for competition would open in 2011 (sorry, can't find a link to the post on Schmuck's blog); I've argued that the pieces were in place for arrival by 2010, and that while a 2010 playoff push is still unlikely, talent has a way of achieving results (just ask the Rays). With the obvious caveat about counting our pitching chickens before they're hatched, let's take a look at the 2010 Orioles.

Offense
CA: Matt Wieters (club control)
1B:
2B: Brian Roberts (under contract)
3B:
SS: Cesar Izturis (under contract)
LF: Nolan Reimold (club control)
CF: Adam Jones (club control/arbitration eligible)
RF: Nick Markakis (under contract)
DH: Luke Scott (arbitration eligible)

Aubrey Huff is slated to be a free agent at the end of year, and Melvin Mora has a club option for 2010 (Cot's Baseball Contracts does not give an amount, but I can't see it being less than this year's $9 million salary). Thus, the Orioles need to fill their infield corners for 2010.

Potential free agents that might be worth pursuing: Aubrey Huff, Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Adrian Beltre, Melvin Mora

While the merits of those players would certainly be worth discussing, I'm not sure that MacPhail will choose an expensive fix. At this point, I would love to know the organization's plans for Brandon Snyder. Could his breakout season push him into the lineup next year? Given that both Wieters and Reimold were advanced on a fairly conservative timetable, I can't imagine that, at the earliest, we'd see him much before June. An ideal fix would be a third baseman capable of posting an OBP high enough to merit batting second in the lineup, but isn't that player on every team's wish list? Resigning Huff might be a viable option for first base, especially since he won't cost a draft pick.

Pitching:
The Orioles have six pitchers likely to garner most of the remaining 2009 starts: Guthrie, Uehara, Bergesen, Hill, Berken and Hernandez.

Jeremy Guthrie (arbitration eligible) - Guthrie has pitched similarly to last year in terms of strikeouts and walks, but his BAbip has ticked up, rising from .260 to a more sustainable .292. The main drivers of his higher ERA, however, have been fewer groundballs (0.75 GB/FB career; 0.64 in 2009) and an increased home run rate (8.9% HR/FB career, 12.0% in 2009) . Fewer ground balls + more home runs per fly ball = higher ERA. Assuming those rates regress toward Guthrie's established performance level, he still looks capable of being a reliable back end starter, even though he's likely to post higher ERAs than the past two seasons.

Koji Uehara (under contract) - Uehara as done exactly what the Orioles expected him to do: limit walks, strike out a reasonable number of batters, and post a league average ERA.

Brad Bergesen (club control) - Bergesen has been solid thus far, though a very low strikeout rate (4.2 per nine) is worrying. He never struck out lots of batters in the minors, and he got good results there, too, but 4.2 is probably too low for him to have long-term success in the Majors.

Rich Hill (arbitration eligible) - Hill has mixed three solid starts with three bad starts, and he really struggled in his last two outings (combined 4.2 IP, 7 walks, 7 ER); I suspect he will need to turn it around quickly lest he move to the bullpen. He's the type of arm that deserves every opportunity to straighten out his control issues, but when can't throw strikes, he really can't throw strikes. My optimism that this reclamation project will work out is waning quickly.

Jason Berken (club control) - Like Hill, Berken's first two starts went swimmingly, and then not so much. He's walked nine and struck out eight, hardly a ratio that will lead to positive long-term results. He's probably destined for swingman duty if he can stick with the club.

David Hernandez (club control) - Though his debut was mediocre, he continues to post very good numbers in the minor leagues. At some point, he's likely to return to Baltimore to fill in for either injury or ineffectiveness, so he will definitely get another shot to prove himself.

Based on their current seasons and the outlook for the rest of the year, Guthrie, Uehara, Bergesen, and Hernandez are, in my estimation, very likely to warrant consideration for the Opening Day 2010 rotation, albeit all as back end quality pitchers. Who else could be in the mix? Of those currently in Norfolk, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Troy Patton have been healthy and productive this season, and each could have better stuff than anyone else listed above. With Brian Matusz figuring to join the mix as well, the Orioles are looking at a potential surplus of viable rotation candidates. Assuming that Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz all figure into the 2010 plans, that's a welcome problem to have, if for no other reason than managing workloads.

Importantly, that depth brings up an interesting conundrum for MacPhail: rather than deal with an offensive black hole from the left side of the infield or sign an expensive free agent, should the Orioles trade a pitcher for a shortstop or third baseman? I don't know very much about prospects in other organizations, but what would it take to pry Brandon Wood from the Angels?

Asking the 2010 Orioles to contend would obviously be a tall order, but the offense looks to have the makings of a very good one, especially if the Orioles fill the holes at first and third wisely. As for the pitching, the impact arms are getting very close. Will we see the first wave this September, as Goldstein speculates? That remains to be seen, but it is clear that given the progress made in the first two months of 2009, Orioles fans won't have to wait much longer for all that mound talent to appear. The window opens in 2010, even if it's just barely cracked.
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