Andy MacPhail Video Message

While watching the Cavs get run out of the gym by the Celtics, I was clearing out the ol' inbox and watched Andy MacPhail's video message for O's fans.  He provides a very fair, realistic, and balanced assessment of the team's strengths and weaknesses in the early going.  While the early 2010 returns have understandably left me questioning my own faith in the rebuilding program, I am pleased that MacPhail is willing to discuss all of this club's shortcomings frankly and openly.  It makes me wish even more that I had been able to attend the Baseball Prospectus event earlier this season.

Baseball Prospectus at the Ballpark

Baseball Prospectus will be hosting a Ballpark Event at Camden Yards on Monday, April 12. Tickets are just $25 (including your game ticket - this sounds like a fantastic deal), and the event will include none other than Andy MacPhail. I really wish I could go to the event and ask him questions about player valuation methodologies, lineup construction and the relationship between front office and field personnel, but alas, I will instead be studying International Economics around the corner. If you go, I'd love to have you write a guest post about the event.

Here are the details:

Monday, April 12, 5:15 PM at Camden Yards
BPro writers: Clay Davenport, John Perrotto, Will Carroll, Jay Jaffe, Steve Goldman, and more
Celebrity guests: O's President Andy MacPhail, Sirius/XM's Mike Ferrin
Tickets: $25, call Dan Stahl at 410-547-6239
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Mike Gonzalez?

Well, this lowers my faith in Andy MacPhail. I don't care what the terms are; signing a relief pitcher at the cost of a second round draft pick is not a move the Orioles should be making. If the baseball industry has learned anything in the last few years it is that relievers are largely replaceable. I don't know why the Orioles need to bring in a "closer" when that costs them both dollars and a draft pick. Is Gonzalez a good pitcher? Yes; he struck out 90 batters in 74.1 IP last season. But, he also made 80 appearances (previous career high: 54), and the year prior he pitched just 33.2 innings. And in 2007? 17.0 innings. Why the Orioles want an injury prone reliever that costs a draft pick, I have no idea. I blame Peter Schmuck and the other rabble-rousers at the Sun.
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MacPhail on TV

MacPhail is on TV tonight during the bottom of the 3rd, and he's talking about the Sherrill/Bell trade. He mentioned that the Orioles had been watching Bell over the course of six weeks, and that three different scouts all agreed he could stay at third base. That's probably the consensus view throughout baseball, but it is certainly not a unanimous opinion. Still, his value is clearly derived from his bat, and it appears to be a good one.

He also mentioned that getting Bergesen two weeks off in the long season isn't the worst thing in the world, and that there is currently a "vigorous debate" about who will take the rotation slot. When asked point blank about whether or not we'll see any of the other top prospects this season, MacPhail said, "Sometimes you have these things thrust upon you, whether you like it or not... You only have so many guys that you can put in there."

A few more quotes...

On whether the Orioles should start competing right now: "We need to set that mentality. I just shed them of their closer, and our starting pitching is not where we need to be to win in this division yet, but we are creating the nucleus on the field that is getting us closer to [winning]."

On how the Orioles can compete in the rough and tumble AL East: "We've been very fortunate. Everything I have asked ownership to consider, they have really come through for us, with the Sarasota thing being the last thing. Making some of the moves, some of the investments in amateur signing bonuses--I think we've ranked third or fourth in baseball over the last couple of years--we're starting to see the results of that. I think that's exactly the philosophy we need to continue to take. We just have to try to build the inventory of young, talented kids every opportunity we get and then there's going to come a time where we're going to take advantage of Major League free agency and maybe trade some of those young kids to add some proven winners to our young mix."

A very good interview. If you didn't see it and have the game on DVR, check it out.
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Fast Track to Success

As you're well aware, I've downed the Kool-Aid and am all aboard the Andy MacPhail train. This weekend, I found more evidence to my liking:

A year ago, when the Orioles began pondering a contract extension for second baseman Brian Roberts, they relied on number-crunching and statistical analysis of an advanced nature to help set fair expectations for his performance over the life of the deal.

That endeavor largely had to do with how offensive players of his type tend to age, a case study that used seven decades of baseball history as its backdrop and systematically eliminated some ill-suited matches.

Hey, that sounds fancy! And much like something I advocate myself.

In related news, Peter Schmuck reported in hiis Tuesday column that the Orioles are not going to rush their top pitching prospects. He compares the situation to the Ravens' handling of Joe Flacco, but the more apt comparison is the sad story of Hayden Penn.
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