Last Post on the Draft

One last post on the draft, and then I'm done.

Are first round draft picks overpaid? Nope. Not even close. But don't take my word for it; take Erik Manning's.
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After the Signing Deadline

Stephen Strasburg got his money; the Orioles surpisingly signed Mychal Givens; and Toronto, Tampa Bay and Texas inexplicably failed miserably. And now we get the columns lamenting the fate of western society if baseball cannot fix the draft. Jayson Stark does an especially egregious job of shilling for the owners, so let's deconstruct his piece, point by point.

Only five starting pitchers on the entire free-agent market got packages bigger than that last winter: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster and Oliver Perez.

And Strasburg is guaranteed slightly more money than Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz were guaranteed for this season put together. Those guys own a combined nine Cy Young Awards. Strasburg has thrown a combined zero professional pitches.

Conveniently, Stark leaves out Kenshin Kawakami (3 years, $23 million), signed by the Braves this offseason and someone whose talent is nowhere close to Strasburg's. Asked in his chat yesterday about this very deal, Keith Law responded, "It's incredibly unfair to Strasburg. I doubt there's a team in baseball that would rather have Kawakami over the next three years than Strasburg." Not to mention that Koji Uehara signed a $10 million deal with the Orioles, and I'd bet the team doesn't regret that one bit. Besides, isn't saying that Oliver Perez received a whole lot of money more of an indictment of the Mets or the free agency process than of the the draft?

Law's comment, of course, brings up another point: Strasburg's deal isn't for three years; it's for four. And not only that, but the team will still control his rights (via arbitration) for another two years (at least) after that. Johnson (45), Martinez (37) and Smoltz (42) may have received less guaranteed money, but they also came with many fewer seasons of team control. Another red herring are those Cy Young awards cited: (smart) teams don't pay for past results; they pay for expected future performance. Only someone who'd been asleep for the last decade would have predicted a Cy Young award for any of those guys in 2009.

The Rockies -- a team that had to trade away Matt Holliday over the winter and a club that could afford to sign only one major league free agent (Alan Embree) -- tossed almost $4 million at another high school pitcher, Tyler Matzek.

Perhaps the Rockies felt that their money was best spent on bringing in young, high-end talent rather than retread veterans. The Rockies could clearly "afford" to sign more than one major league free agent; they apparently had $4 million in the bank. Nobody "forced" them to trade Matt Holliday; instead they acted in what they perceived to be the best interests of their ballclub. Given that the Rockies currently lead the NL wild card standings and that two of the players they received in the deal (Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez) are playing key roles in that run, I don't think they're too upset with the outcome, either. Even more so if the 23-year old Gonzalez's blossoming is real.

"So the big loser," said an official of one team, "is Bud and his slotting system. It got crushed. Some of these signings are off the charts. Look at some of this stuff in the later rounds. There's carnage all over the map."

[C]hange is coming. This draft isn't working. It hasn't for years. And now Selig's informal slotting system is being so widely ignored, you can bet this topic is heading for a bargaining table near you in 2011.

Yes, the big loser was Selig's ridiculous slotting system; that is indisputable. Teams that are willing to spend the money get the best players. Much less clear is how the draft hasn't been working for years. Washington, Seattle and San Diego all got their man, and while the Pirates did not spend a lot at number four, that was by design. Plus, last year they signed a Boras client (Pedro Alvarez). Teams that make smart decisions are able to pull together successful drafts for much less than the cost of three seasons of Danys Baez. I don't really see how that means the system is broken beyond repair.

SLOTTING -- Baseball is now the only major sport that doesn't have some sort of system that regulates how much drafted players can get paid. And that can't go on. Not just because the clubs want slotting, either. It's because players want it. We've polled a bunch of them. And big league players want those $15 million deals going to them, not to kids who have never played a professional baseball game.

Interestingly, baseball is also the only major sport with a powerful union; might that have something to do with slotting in other sports? Regardless, of course the players want that money to flow to them; I'd like for it to flow to me, too! I don't see how restricting a few million dollars (in total) from flowing to amateur prospects is going to drastically affect current player paychecks, though. Perhaps they can win a concession or two regarding free agency or arbitration eligibility, but that sounds like the owners cutting off their nose to spite their face if you ask me. Why would the owners want to give up a year of established player cost control just to keep the top few prospects from getting closer to their market value?

TRADING PICKS -- Now here's a concept the union is in favor of. So it seems just about inevitable that this is a new draft wrinkle that's coming soon. If you have the first pick and you don't want the price tag that comes with Stephen Strasburg, or you don't want the migraine that comes from dealing with Scott Boras, you pick him anyway and then dangle him on the open market.

I see nothing wrong with trading draft picks. Though I think "price tag" and "headache" are more likely to be thought of by teams as "value" associated with picking in a certain range.

WORLDWIDE DRAFT -- We're not sure if this on-again, off-again idea will ever fly. But it's gaining momentum again, because it needs to. A system that allows the Yankees and Red Sox to outspend everybody on any player they really want, with no limits whatsoever, doesn't serve anyone except the Yankees and Red Sox.

Damn those Yankees and Red Sox! I can't believe they are able to simply outspend and get all the good international players like... Wagner Mateo (Cardinals), Michael Ynoa (A's), Miguel Angel Sano (Pirates and O's interested), Kenshin Kawakami (Braves) and Koji Ueahara (O's)! Yes, they signed Dice-K, Matsui and the like, but, without doing all the hard research, the playing field really seems quite level in terms of international free agents.

THE CONTROL ROOM -- Another idea that's been building steam beneath the surface is a way for teams to wriggle out of the embarrassment of being held hostage by 17-year-old high school kids. What some people in the sport would like to see is a draft system similar to the hockey draft, which would allow any team picking a high school player to control that player's rights through his college years. "We need something to that effect," said an exec of one team, "just so you don't feel like you have no leverage as a club in those negotiations. So if you draft a kid out of high school and he says he's not ready to sign, after his sophomore year you can try to sign him again. And after his junior year you can try to sign him again. And then, if he still doesn't sign, after his senior year of college, then he goes back into the draft."

So, the league allows players to negotiate with only one team, forcing him to either take the contract offered or wait another full year before playing professional baseball, and it's the team that lacks leverage? Why is it that players seem to get close to their asking price? Perhaps its because the teams have crunched the numbers and realize that signing a top prospect for the cost of one or two seasons of a utility infielder or middle reliever is actually a really good deal.

And the big finish...

[A]ny system that's paying an 18-year-old amateur more than a five-time Cy Young winner needs more repairs than a 1962 Volkswagen.

Never mind, of course, that the "five-time Cy Young winner" (Randy Johnson) was actually the one who needed those repairs.

I'm all for trading draft picks; teams should be allowed to maximize their return on the draft. Perhaps the Nationals would have been better served trading the number one pick to the Diamondbacks and Angels for two first round picks, or to another team willing to give up prospects that are already in their system. But remember, the team giving up those picks would clearly value Strasburg (including the associated cost commitment) more highly than a few more lesser propspects. Whose to say which team is correct in its assessment?

I would also like if the deadline was moved forward; fans, players, and teams would all benefit if the staring-at-each-other period was shortened. Teams would get their players out to affiliates sooner; fans would be spared months of nonsense and get a chance to see prospects sooner, and players would gain certainty over their futures and get a few professional games under their belt the same season they're drafted. One suggestion that seems reasonable is to move the deadline forward a month. I've also seen it suggested that some upper level short-season leagues (like the NY Penn League) could be extended a month; I think that is also an interesting proposal.

Regardless, unless your goal is to give the owners more money and teams more control over the prospects they sign, most of the proposals out there to "fix" the draft aren't worth your time.

Greedy Stephen Strasburg

It's draft signing deadline, and you know what that means! Just like last year with Brian Matusz, lots of grumpy people complaining about Stephen Strasburg!! Fortunately, Joe Sheehan hits the nail on the head:

"The time from draft day to the signing deadline is the only time for perhaps a decade—and perhaps ever—that a player has any kind of negotiating leverage. Once he signs with a team, that team owns him until he accumulates six full seasons of major league service time. How can you possibly blame a person for wanting to
maximize his return on the only negotiation in which he’ll have any leverage for at least six years, possibly an entire decade, and in many cases ever? The idea, popular among players and ex-players who seem to have no grasp of the structure under which they play, that a draftee should just sign for whatever’s available and start his career because he’ll get paid if he performs, that's just laughable on its face...Stephen Strasburg could win Rookie of the Year and finish third in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2010, and make $400,000 in 2011. He could be even better in '11, racking up a ton of innings as the Nationals make a wild-card push, and make $400,000 in 2012. The next time Strasburg will be able to do more than just ask for money, entirely at the team’s mercy to give it to him, is the winter of 2012-13. The first time he’ll be able to negotiate with more than one team is the winter of 2015-16, unless the Nationals diddle with his time on the roster, in which case it’ll be 2016-17. That’s a long time from now. That’s a lot of innings from now, and he might never get there—he might be great, like Prior, out of the box, and never get paid because that’s how the system is set up."

Checking in on Joe Jordan

Following the somewhat controversial (but not really) selection of Michael Hobgood in last week’s draft, defenders of the pick noted that the Orioles of recent seasons had spent money on the draft and that Joe Jordan’s track record had earned him the benefit of the doubt regarding the assessment of Hobgood's talent. Named Director of Scouting on November 16, 2004, by then-Executive Vice President for Baseball Operations (and Really Long Titles) Jim Beattie, Jordan just completed his fifth draft with the club, so it’s time to take a look back at how well he’s done infusing a formerly-barren Orioles minor league system with talent.

Format:
Pick Number - Player

2005 Draft

13 – Brandon Snyder: A high school catcher, injuries have since forced a move to first base. Given the position switch, Snyder’s value is tied directly to his bat. I’ll let Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus tell you how that value is developing: “It's officially a breakout season at this point for the 2005 first-round pick, who recorded his third straight multi-hit game on Thursday, is batting .440 this month and a whopping .355/.418/.612 overall. As a first baseman only type, he needed to prove that he could fit in the middle of a big lineup this year with more power, and for many scouts who have seen him, it's mission accomplished.” He’s still just 22-years old, and looks like he could very well be in Baltimore in the near future.

48 – Garrett Olson: Scouting reports called Olson polished, and he was expected to move quickly through the system. He did just that, reaching the big leagues in July 2007. In 33 starts for the Orioles in 2007 and 2008, he went 10-13 with a 6.87 ERA. This offseason, the Orioles traded him to the Cubs for Felix Pie, and the Cubs then shipped him to the Seattle, where he is pitching respectably as a swingman: 10 appearances, 4 starts, 4.26 ERA, 31.2 IP, 1.39 WHIP. Still, he’s yet to show anywhere near the command that drove this minor league success.

61 – Nolan Reimold: He hit in the NY-Penn League and the Carolina League during his 2005 debut. He hit some more in the Carolina League during 2006. He hit in the Eastern League in 2007. He hit in the Eastern League (again) in 2008. He hit in Norfolk in 2009. And now he’s hitting in Baltimore to the tune of .287/.356/.543 with 7 homers in his first 28 games. Looks set to be the Orioles everyday left fielder for the foreseeable future.

93 – Brandon Erbe: Before injuring his shoulder and hitting the disabled list, Erbe seemed to be poised for a breakout season. As the organization’s fourth best pitching prospect, he was 1-3 with a 0.90 ERA for Bowie, allowing just 11 hits (but 8 walks) in 20.0 IP with 19 strikeouts. As a 20-year old in the Carolina league in 2008, Erbe pitched very well: 150.2 IP, 82 hits, 50 walks, 151 strikeouts.

123 – Kieron Pope: A toolsy outfielder, he spent three seasons in short-season leagues, hasn’t hit and is currently on the minor league disabled list with Delmarva.

483 – David Hernandez: Though he doesn’t possess knock-out stuff, Hernandez has consistently posted very good strikeout rates in his minor league career. He enjoyed a great season in Bowie last year, and was off to another great start in Norfolk in 2009. He made his Major League debut on May 29, picking up the win against Detroit, but was just optioned to the minors. He’ll be back.

873 – Tanner Scheppers: What might have been… Scheppers elected not to sign and instead attended Fresno State. He suffered a stress fracture to his pitching shoulder before the 2008 draft and thus fell into the second round and again chose to not to sign. Last week, he was selected 44th overall by the Texas Rangers. Alas.

2005 Results: One everyday left fielder, a top pitching prospect, a blossoming first-baseman, one pitcher traded for a fallen star prospect, another very useful organization arm, and no major flops from the top picks. Gold stars all around!

2006 Draft

9 – Billy Rowell: After an impressive short-season debut at age 17 and a solid full season debut in 2007, Rowell has disappointed. Scouts have questioned his effort and attitude (not to mention his defense), and he’s since shifted from third base to the outfield. In his second go around at Frederick, he’s hitting just .236/.293/.391. To make matters worse, the following players we selected immediately after him: Tim Lincecum (10), Max Scherzer (11) and Travis Snider (14).

32 – Pedro Beato: Another disappointment, Beato has never posted the sort of strikeout numbers you’d expect from a pick this high. He’s just 4-5 at Frederick this year, posting a 4.57 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 65.0 IP while striking out just 6.2 per nine.

58 – Ryan Adams: A second baseman, Adams posted good numbers at Delmarva in 2008, but at age 21 he was a bit old for the league. He’s in Frederick now, but on the disabled list.

85 – Zach Britton: Britton has improved as he’s advanced through the system, raising his strikeout rate, but his walk rate is a bit higher this year. His ERA looks pretty (1.96), but it masks 13 unearned runs allowed for the Keys. At age 21, this is an important season for Britton as a prospect.

115 – Blake Davis: A shortstop drafted out of national powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, Davis spent the 2008 season in Bowie where he posted a .284/.324/.389 line. Because of injury he’s yet to play for the Tides this season, but does not project as an everyday Major Leaguer.

175 – Jason Berken: Aside from perhaps Britton, it’s up to Berken to redeem the 2006 draft for the Orioles. He was part of that excellent 2008 Baysox rotation, and posted solid numbers this season before being called-up to the big club. He’s getting an extended audition, but considering the rest of the talent behind him, he’s unlikely to play a major role for very long. Still, he is a quality organizational arm and could definitely have value out of the bullpen or as a swingman.

2006 Results: The exact opposite of the 2005 draft. Rowell and Beato haven't developed, the position prospects have almost no chance to make an impact in Baltimore, and one organization-type arm is all the Orioles have to show for their troubles.

2007 Draft

5 – Matt Wieters: I think we know all about this guy.

129 – Tim Bascom: A right-hander out of Central Florida, Bascom just reached Bowie at age 24. After a poor 2008 season at Frederick, he posted only slightly better numbers in the Carolina League this year before his promotion. He’s walking just 2.2 per nine this year, but also only striking out 5.8.

159 – Jake Arrieta: After falling thanks to a mediocre junior season at TCU and questions regarding his bonus demands, Arrieta has validated the Orioles decision to go over slot and meet his asking price. There is no hint of social promotion here, as Arrieta dominated the Carolina League in 2008 and the Eastern League in 2009 to earn his recent call-up to Norfolk. His walks (4.1 per nine) were a bit worrisome in ’08, but he’s greatly improved this year (3.2 per nine), and his strikeout rate is a very attractive 10.5 per nine this year. He and Chris Tillman are on the verge of being the first of the elite arms to reach Baltimore.

189 – Joseph Mahoney: Only the Orioles fourth pick in the top 200 (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker: the gifts that keep on giving!), the big first baseman from the University of Richmond is repeating at Delmarva this season, showing none of the power (one home run in 182 at-bats) the Orioles hoped to see. But he is the biggest base stealer in baseball.

2007 Results: While Wieters has struggled in his Major League debut, he has all the makings of a future star; Arrieta also looks to be a future potential stalwart. Perhaps having just four top 200 picks was a hidden benefit as it allowed the Orioles the budget flexibility to sign Wieters and Arrieta.

2008 Draft

4 – Brian Matusz: While many fans preferred a bit bat like Justin Smoak with last season’s first round pick, Matusz has been as good as advertised. After a bit of a slow start, he’s making his case for a promotion to Bowie; he’s 2-1 with 1.13 ERA (39.2 IP, 5 ER) and 43 strikeouts over his last six starts. Andy MacPhail has stated that Matusz is on the “Wieters Plan,” so expect to see him in Bowie shortly and in Baltimore by the middle of next year. UPDATE: I wrote this yesterday, but just got around to posting today; Matusz was promoted to Bowie yesterday.

50 – Xavier Avery: A speedster who turned down a scholarship to play running back at the University of Georgia, Avery is raw and toolsy. His introduction to full season baseball has gone relatively well, especially after a horrific April, and he’s hitting .294/.335/.398 with 2 home runs and 16 steals in 24 attempts at Delmarva. He’s a long way from the big leagues, but he’s the kind of athlete scouts drool over.

81 – L.J. Hoes: Hoes is another high-upside high school draftee playing with the Shorebirds. He’s hitting .242/.280/.298 this year after posting a .308/.416/.390 line in the Gulf Coast league in his introduction to pro ball.

116 – Kyle Hudson: A speedy outfielder drafted out of the University of Illinois-Champaign, his .272/.342/.300 line at Delmarva fails to impress.

2008 Results: Matusz is on the fast track, but it's tough not to be just a bit jealous of the Rangers, who had Justin Smoak fall into their laps. Avery looks to be making real progress on turning his tools into skills, and Hoes has impact talent as well.

The verdict: The Orioles went above slot to draft top prospects Wieters, Matusz and Arrieta. Jordan's first round selections have been successful (to date, of course), at an 75% success rate, but after the 2005 draft, Jordan’s later round record is much more mixed; Jordan and his staff do earn bonus points, however, for the choosing the pieces returned in the Bedard and Tejada trades (Tillman, Patton, Albers, Sherrill, Jones, etc). Considering the success the Orioles have had in paying to meet the demands of the best available prospects, it’s a bit surprising they didn’t reach for a higher priced pitcher. Still, Hobgood rated very highly on most draft boards and was certainly not a laughable reach. If the Orioles can spend the money saved on a Latin prospect or two, as was rumored last week, then the club could net two top prospects for the price of one. On balance, Jordan and his staff have done an excellent job restocking the Orioles system.
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The Draft and ESPN

Warning: potential incoherent rambling ahead.

Jayson Stark's column today leaves me speechless. Floored. Flabbergasted. Overwhelmed. Sad. Flummoxed. Perplexed. Angry.

Stephen Strasburg will be happy to serve as a one-man sport-changing earthquake. And our prediction is, that's exactly what he'll become.
Once he finishes collecting whatever preposterous bonus the Washington Nationals eventually give him, the landscape will be different. And the shock waves should drive the baseball draft toward a place it should have gone years ago.
Toward a cap on draft-pick bonuses.
Toward some sort of formal slotting system that predetermines how much money top draft choices will collect.

So that the owners can keep more of their money? So that young players--who are the among the most talented in the world at their profession--have to wait years to get their big payday? Stark quotes and unnamed "club official" who asserts that the MLB players "don't want money like this going to kids who have never played a game." How is that relevant? I don't want my employer to hire new people if it means I might lose my job or get a lower salary, either. Why do we accept things in sports that we would never accept in real-life? How would people feel if GE, Google, Goldman Sachs and General Motors organized a draft for college graduates, fixed the starting salaries (at levels below what a free-market would pay), forbid graduates from choosing their employer and then prevented these new workers from changing jobs for the next six to ten years? Drafted by GM, but wanted to work in Silicon Valley? Sorry! Welcome to Detroit.

I understand why there is a draft in baseball; the sport as a whole benefits when there is some semblance of competitive balance. But capping bonuses isn't the way to "fix" the draft. I don't disagree with Stark's (and many other sane people's) idea to trade draft picks; to the contrary, I think that is very reasonable. Unfortunately, I don't see where a hard slotting system is anywhere close to reasonable. Besides, does anyone really think Strasburg is going to actually get the $50 million he's rumored to be requesting?

At least Jayson Werth offers the most perplexing quote of all-time: "You should get paid for what you do, for what you've done. That's what free agency's for -- to get paid for what you could do, for what you might possibly do. It's not what the draft is for."

Actually, Jayson, that's precisely what he draft is for.
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Revisiting the Draft

I started graduate school last week--in addition to working full-time--so my Orioles postings are going to be relatively few and far between. Plus, it's hard to watch this team right now. I'm ready to chalk this season up as a success and move on to 2009.

In a Q-and-A with DraftInfo, ESPN.com's Keith Law answers lots of questions about prospects and the draft. When asked how he would fix the draft, his thoughts mirror mine:

Depends on the goal. Let’s not mince words: The draft is an anticompetitive,
anti-player mechanism designed to screw 18- and 21-year-old kids out of millions
of dollars on behalf of the billionaires who own MLB teams. It is simply
disgusting, and I am nauseated whenever I read an article that states or implies
that these kids should be willing to play for peanuts.

We've had this discussion before so I won't get too far into it, but I'm always amazed by the fans who complain about Peter Angelos on the one hand and then about the players seeking large bonuses on the other. The players have earned their bonus money with their talent; pay them their worth.

Cleaning Out the Links

Running down some links still in my RSS reader from the past few days...

• Keith Law breaks down Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
• Peter Gammons reports the Orioles spent the 9th most on draft bonuses.
• The Baltimore Sun has even more on the signing bonuses MacPhail has given out.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus places two Orioles in the Top 50 and names another honorable mention in his Ultimate Fantasy Draft.

Law gives a very positive assessment of Tillman, though he does believe that his command (or lack of it) will keep him from being a true number one. Still, at just 20 years old and with a clean delivery, he could develop that command.

Look at the teams who are also on the top of that list from Gammons: the Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros. The Red Sox, Twins, Rays and Brewers have each reaped significant benefits from spending in the draft, and the Rangers Royals, and Pirates each have relatively new front offices that have placed a priority on rebuilding through the farm system. The Giants and Astros have poor records signing players and developing talent. Aside from those two, that's a great list on the which the Orioles appear, and perhaps the best evidence yet that MacPhail has truly ushered in a new Orioles era.

It's also a great development that the Orioles have shown a willingness to pick the player they deem to be the best talent and not just the player they can sign for a reasonable bonus. Matt Wieters was clearly the best of his draft class, and while the debate will certainly linger over whether the Orioles made the right pick with Matusz over Smoak, he was the first player on their draft board.

Finally, to see Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (another MacPhail acquisition) rated so highly is quite encouraging. But most exciting is that Matt Wieters is the most promising prospect in the minors.

Draft Signing Deadline

Kevin Goldstein gives his thoughts on the August 15 deadline by which teams must sign their draft picks, and I agree that the new deadline benefits no one. The most interesting part of his piece is that there could be a change to that deadline:

Many are suggesting another move of the deadline to July 15... Such a
deadline was discussed at this week's scouting meetings in Arizona, and the
response was generally favorable. It would require a modification of the current
CBA, but there is reason to believe that the union might be open to such a
change.

August 15 clearly doesn't work. While it wouldn't fix many of the problems with the draft, moving the date to July 15 would at least avoid the six weeks that teams and agents refuse to negotiate with each other.

Arbitration, Free Agency and Contracts

Keith Law has an outstanding primer on major league contracts, arbitration eligibility, free agent status, and roster rules. As these issues affect roster and player development decisions today more than ever, it's important to understand the minutiae involved.

Fixing the Draft

David Pinto at Baseball Musings has a thought provoking post on how to fix the MLB draft. The crux of his plan is a ranking system for prospects and then teams, based on their finish the previous season, are allowed to negotiate with tiers of players based on those rankings. It's an intriguing idea, but I have a few reservations.

For example, based on the rankings submitted to MLB, Joey Smith is ranked as the fifth best player available. Players one through four are widely agreed to be the best of the draft class and sign with teams one through four. Team five isn't especially enamored with Joey Smith, instead preferring Michael Jones, who is ranked as the seventh best prospect. Team Five signs Michael Jones instead. Now, as Pinto writes, one of the pluses of his proposal is that "players can't fall that far through the draft. The five best players sign with the five worst teams or [they] are out of a job for three years. The World Champions would not have access to the best 25 players in the draft." How is it fair to either Joey Smith or Team Five to have this rule in place? Either Smith doesn't get to sign--at all--or Team Five is forced to accept a player that they deem a lesser prospect. Would teams one through five have another shot at signing Joey Smith in Round 2?

While difficult in football or basketball, ranking prospects in baseball is an especially dicey proposition. Teams often can't agree which position a player should play (see: Markakis, Nick), much less where that player should go in the draft. Different organizations value high school and college players and pitching and position players differently. Using the example above, even the top five or ten players can be viewed differently by a small group of teams. After you move past the first 25 or 50 players, it's quite possible that a team will not have an opportunity to negotiate with a player that they would take in a draft scenario. For instance, assuming I'm reading Pinto's proposal correctly, team fifteen would be precluded from negotiating with prospect number 86, even if under a draft scenario, they would have used the 75th pick on this player.

While I definitely agree with Pinto that the draft isn't really accomplishing what it was intended to do, I'm not sure his proposal is the way to fix it. So what could be done? A few suggestions...

• Allow teams to trade draft picks. If the Kansas City Royals are picking third but know that they don't value the consensus top three prospects as highly as the teams picking slightly lower, why should the Royals be forced to forego the extra value that the market assigns to their third pick? Shouldn't the Washington Nationals have the opportunity to trade the 9th pick in the draft and a 4th round choice to the Royals for the right to pick third? The Nationals would get their man and the Royals would get theirs plus a bonus selection.
• Make all players in the world free agents and allot a "bonus cap" to teams--benchmarked for salary inflation and tied to the league-wide revenues--and allow each team to spend its cap however it sees fit. Perhaps a team would rather sign the top two prospects for 90% of their budget than sign five top-100 prospects or fifteen top-200 prospects for the same dollar amount. A premium would be placed on an organization's ability to identify talent and would create numerous opportunities for management to creatively allocate its bonus budget. However, given the issues with the bonus skimming scandals in Latin America, this system is probably not palatable.

Whatever the ultimate solution, it will require a great deal of creative thinking on the part of Major League Baseball, something which is all too often in short supply. But thanks to David Pinto for getting the discussion started.

It's Official

Brian Matusz is an Oriole. No terms were disclosed, but it appears that he signed a major league deal which immediately places him on the 40-man roster. Since he signed so late and the deal would require use of an option year for him to join an affiliate this year, he won't be pitching until the fall leagues. Assuming that's the case, he'll need to be on the major league club full-time by 2013 or the Orioles risk losing him to waivers. Considering that he is widely considered very close to the majors already, he would be a huge disappointment if he failed to meet that timeline. Now, wasn't all that angst over whether he would sign a little overdone?

UPDATE: The Sun is reporting that Matusz will get a $3.2 million signing bonus. That seems very reasonable for the fourth pick in the draft.

Signing Day & Waiver Trades

It's Brian Matusz signing day! Assuming the t's are crossed and i's dotted, of course, but with Matusz in town for a physical, that seems very, very likely.

The Sun also has info on Orioles players and their revocable waivers status:

• Aubrey Huff has passed through
• George Sherrill was claimed and pulled back
• Jay Payton passed through
• Kevin Millar passed through
• Jamie Walker passed through

Huff wasn't claimed because he is still owed a significant sum of money and is largely a DH only. That doesn't fit the needs of any AL contender in a competitive race--at this point only Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota. Tampa could probably use another bat, especially with their recent spat of injuries, but they've been down the Aubrey Huff road before and the parting was not amicable. Boston has David Ortiz, Chicago has about four DH's, and while Minnesota could use the bat, they probably wouldn't take the money.

I'm curious to know who claimed Sherrill--the Sun notes it was at least one unnamed AL team--and whether the Orioles attempted to work out a trade or if they pulled Sherrill back without negotiating. Sherrill is under team control for a few more years, so even though he profiles as an aging middle reliever, MacPhail has asked for significant return should he be traded. Depending on just how much he's asking for, I'm not sure I agree with that decision.

As for the others, I don't see any team looking to acquire those sorts of spare parts. Walker hasn't had any success against lefties this year (they have a shocking 1.049 OPS against him), and since he's a LOOGY that means he hasn't really had any success at all this year. Millar and Payton could both be useful to a contender, but since they are playing key roles for this mildly surprising Orioles team, neither is likely to be dealt, even though they have zero long-term value.

Matusz Update

I've been working on a fairly comprehensive post, but until that's ready, it appears the Orioles are close to signing Brian Matusz. It's amazing what a deadline and a few million bucks can accomplish.

That notebook is full of interesting tid bits:

• Nick Markakis frustratingly equates a "successful season" with RBI; RBI are surely a source of pride for a player, but they are extremely overrated by fans when evaluating the merits of individual players
• Bradley Bergesen could be coming to the Majors to start on Saturday, though there are several other candidates to start, including one--Dennis Sarfate--who would be pitching on full rest and is already on the roster
• Chris Ray has begun pitching for the Gulf Coast Orioles; may he pitch well and be ready for Spring Training

MLB Draft

Joe Sheehan has a thought provoking article up today at Baseball Prospectus. I completely agree with assessment of the draft:

The draft is a broken system, one in which Major League Baseball openly and unashamedly restricts the career options of hundreds of young men in order to save itself millions of dollars each year, and everyone nods and smiles. We accept the concept of a draft in sports because it has largely been sold as a mechanism for increasing competitive balance—the worst teams get the highest picks. In fact, drafting high and drafting well are completely different things, as any fan of the Pirates—or, at the other end of the spectrum, the Braves—could tell you. That the draft may help competitive balance in a league is a tertiary factor in its existence. What a draft actually does is keep teams from competing for the services of the best talent on the market, and keeps that talent from having any options when it comes to choosing their employer for their prime earning years. It’s a beautiful system…as long as you’re not a supremely talented baseball player trying to have a career.

As I discussed a few weeks ago, teams pay for talent based on the value they provide to the organization. Sheehan discusses this with, typically, much greater insight and forethought:

What is it to "grossly overpay" the second-best amateur player in the nation? Kevin speculated last week that the end result here would be a $6-8 million major league contract, which would mean an immediate place on the club's 40-man roster. Is that overpaying? What if it were $9 million, or $10 million? What is the value of a 22-year-old third baseman who is expected to be one of the better power hitters in the game—if perhaps at a different position—in short order? What is the value of owning that player’s rights for the next seven, eight, or even 10 years, as he ascends through the minors? What is the value of being able to pay that player near the league minimum for three full seasons, and perhaps the better part of a fourth? What is the value of being able to keep that player off of the free market for talent by paying below-market salaries for three years beyond that? What is the value of never having to compete for the services of a player of that caliber?

It's always popular to bash the drafted player for "unreasonable" demands because they are so "unproven." But, as Joe describes much more eloquently and forcefully than I did, only in sports do we do this:

Engineering firms don’t draft the top engineers and pay them below-market rates... We also wouldn’t tell them they had to work for a lousy firm, or in a city they might hate, far from their families. As a nation, we wouldn’t stand for that kind of thing, but we do in sports. In sports, we’re handing over the prime of players’ careers without ever giving them a chance to find out what they were worth. For many players, the step from amateur to professional is, in fact, the only time in their lives that they will have any leverage at all in their salary, if not their employer or place of work or management team. It is embarrassing to take so much away from them, then complain that they’re not being reasonable when it comes to the one thing that they can negotiate.

So while fans bash Brian Matusz and the other unsigned draft picks for being "greedy" and "only caring about the money," I hope they step back and ask themselves what they would do if they were among the best in the world at their chosen professions and not allowed to sell their skills on the open market. Because I would be asking for every penny possible from the only employer with whom I am allowed to negotiate.

Signing Deadline Looms

The Orioles have until Friday night to sign their first overall selection, Brian Matusz. He is "hopeful" that a deal will get done.

The waiting game is maddening and frustrating, but I predict the Orioles will ultimately get a deal done. Both sides stand to lose too much for a complete failure in the negotiations.

Draft Signing Updates

Kevin Goldstein runs down the entire first round of the 2008 draft, and has the following comments on Brian Matusz:

Negotiations: This is one of those interconnected deals. The Orioles and Matusz have had few productive discussions, because the Matusz side has been watching the talks with involving the ninth overall pick, Aaron Crow. They know that Crow wants a massive deal, and Matusz, as the top pitcher selected, won't settle for a penny less... but what if there's no deal to compare to? OK, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Prediction: A $4-6 million package that includes a major league deal.

Personally, I'm very opposed to giving amateurs Major League deals since, as we saw with Adam Loewen, roster requirements drive development time tables. However, Matusz is widely considered to be a polished arm that is close to the Majors, so a four-year timeline for his inclusion the 25-man roster is probably realistic. If he can't contribute in that time frame, it will be because injuries derailed his progress or he has significantly underperformed expectations. With those considerations, a Major League contract may be a tolerable risk in order for the O's to sign their top draft pick.

Brian Matusz Update

The Baltimore Sun reports the negotiations between the O's and Brian Matusz are in a holding pattern. The Orioles have just two weeks to sign Matusz or they will relinquish his rights, but I have no doubt that the O's will eventually get a deal done. Unfortunately, with the way MLB has mismanaged the draft, we're likely to see a lot more of these hold outs go down to the very last minute, just like the Wieters negotations last year. Since MLB has tried to limit bonuses through it's "slotting" system (where it suggests an appropriate bonus amount for each pick), several teams--the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and others--have routinely stocked up on premium prospects because they were willing to go above slot and pay the prospects their asking prices. Now, more teams, realizing that premium talent can command a premium price, are willing to pay but they are still leery of going against the commish. Thus, teams are playing a ridiculous game of chicken not wanting to be the first to dole out a bonus far above slot.

Several commenters to the Sun article have, predictably, lamented that today's ball player just wants to get paid and doesn't play for the love of the game. That's a lame argument. Teams give players bonuses on the expectation that they will produce future wins and, correspondingly, revenues. Teams that don't spend money on talent--whether at the prospect level or at the big league level--don't win, and then the fans complain that their owners are too cheap to put a winning ballclub on the field.

As a former player, all my sympathies lie with the drafted player. After he signs that first professional contract, the player cannot negotiate a new contract for years. The team controls the pay the player will receive throughout his minor league career and then for his first three Major League seasons. Then, for the next three years, the player's salary will be determined through the arbitration process. Granted, by this time, the player is making some pretty good cash, but it is only until after six full seasons that the player gets to choose his own employer through the free agent process. It's not for seven to ten years that players have full control over where they play! A player is absolutely right to use all their leverage in this situation; it will be a long time before they can use it again.