Negotiations: This is one of those interconnected deals. The Orioles and Matusz have had few productive discussions, because the Matusz side has been watching the talks with involving the ninth overall pick, Aaron Crow. They know that Crow wants a massive deal, and Matusz, as the top pitcher selected, won't settle for a penny less... but what if there's no deal to compare to? OK, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Prediction: A $4-6 million package that includes a major league deal.
Personally, I'm very opposed to giving amateurs Major League deals since, as we saw with Adam Loewen, roster requirements drive development time tables. However, Matusz is widely considered to be a polished arm that is close to the Majors, so a four-year timeline for his inclusion the 25-man roster is probably realistic. If he can't contribute in that time frame, it will be because injuries derailed his progress or he has significantly underperformed expectations. With those considerations, a Major League contract may be a tolerable risk in order for the O's to sign their top draft pick.
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