Wednesday, December 10, 2008

So Far So Good

Though November was rather quiet, the hot stove had a few more logs thrown on the fire in December. The Orioles have traded Ramon Hernandez for Ryan Freel and are nearing a deal for Cesar Izturis. Neither deal is exactly headline worthy in an offseason where C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Kerry Wood, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Ben Sheets are all on the free agent market and Jake Peavy is the most sought after player widely known to be available via trade, but each fits nicely into MacPhail's strategy to remake the Orioles into a contender.

Hernandez was a spare part for this organization. Man-crush Matt Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors and deserves to be the full-time catcher next season, and moving Hernandez, even for a relatively paltry return like Freel and two marginal prospects, was a smart move. Freel is a valuable utility player; if healthy, he can play all the outfield spots, third base and second base, provide solid on-base skills, and potentially steal a few bases. And he provides a right-handed bat to pair with Luke Scott, and potentially Nolan Reimold, for platoon situations.

Izturis also fits nicely, even though he is clearly not a long-term solution for the Orioles shortstop woes. As a low-cost and short-term option, Izturis can provide excellent defense while offering replacement level offense. None of the other options on the market this winter (Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera) are likely to come with such a low price tag or provide significantly more value. After employing a revolving door at the position last season, Izturis will at least provide support for a work-in-progress pitching staff. Teams seem to have figured out in recent years is that a run saved is worth just as much--and perhaps even more--than a run scored and that turning batted balls into outs is a great way to save runs. Taking the great defense until a long-term solution for the position can be found is a smart move by MacPhail.

Offensively, this would seem to leave two holes for the Orioles to fill: 1) first base and 2) back-up catcher. A veteran back-up who can catch 30 or 40 games is a necessity; Wieters will be the full-time starter, but it certainly won't hurt to have him take a day off or spend time at DH once or twice a week. Mark Teixeira is obviously the wild card. While recent rumors have him headed to Boston, the Orioles haven't given up hope. He's an expensive player for a team with the Orioles budget, but he's a great hitter. Reasonable people can disagree on whether it is wise to spend the sums it will take to lure Teixeira, but his presence in the lineup would absolutely be welcomed. If the Orioles fail to sign him, they would still need another bat to play first base, since Aubrey Huff is limited to DH. One potential internal solution would be to play Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott at first base.

Potential lineup, without Teixiera:

2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
CA Matt Wieters
CF Adam Jones
1B Nolan Reimold
SS Cesar Izturis

Potential lineup, with Teixeira:

2B Brian Roberts
RF Nick Markakis
1B Mark Teixeira
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
CA Matt Wieters
3B Melvin Mora
CF Adam Jones
SS Cesar Izturis

That's not a bad looking line-up right there. Personally, I have higher hopes for Matt Wieters and would like to see him bat fifth, in part to break up the lefthanded hitting Huff and Scott.

Obviously, there is still much work to be done on the pitching staff. Only Jeremy Guthrie is assured of a spot in the rotation, and it is unlikely the Orioles will be able to sign any of the headline starters on the market. With help on the way in the minors, targeting draft-pick-cost free veterans is the right move for a team that is largely in search of placeholder innings. Hopefully, young pitchers like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Radhames Liz, David Hernandez and others will develop into viable options for 2010.

It's shaping up to be a productive offseason for the Orioles even if they don't make a big splash. Add Mark Teixeira would tremendously shore up the offense but still leave the team in search of a lot of pitching. The team is definitely on the right track, but 2009 is not likely to be a year of much progress in the standings. The division is just too good and the promising pitching at least a year away.

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