Tuesday, February 10, 2009

It's Prediction Season!

First up: Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA system

The Orioles are projected at 76-86, which would seem to be a Herculean achievement in a division with three 90-game winners. The AL East is going to be very, very good.

I'll post more predictions as they come available and have my own as Spring Training unfolds and we get a bit more certainty regarding the composition of rosters and pitching staffs.

UPDATE: When you click through the link to Baseball Prospectus, you'll see a different chart than the one above. As roster moves are made and more clarity surrounds playing time and injuries, BP is rerunning its projections. The Bobby Abreu signing bounced the Angels into first place, and in the latest run the Orioles had their projected record fall to 74-88.

UPDATE II: Baseball Prospectus has posted the standings with a discussion of each division and playoff chances for each team. The Orioles, despite being projected for 5th place, have a higher chance at winning the wild card (4.5%) than any team from any other AL division. Just more evidence that the 2009 AL East may be the toughest division in recent history.


OhPigott said...

If you look at the national league, you'll notice that the Pirates are predicted to go 65-97. Not only is this not surprising, but it's also pretty much fact. I think this has been their record for the past 15 years. Hopefully the O's fair better.

The Oriole Way said...

I relatively optimistic about the Orioles offense, assuming Huff maintains 2008 form, and very excited about their defense. Unfortunately, the pitching is still going to doom them.

A. Pasternak said...

Honestly, while I am optimistic, I think this number is overly optimistic. The Orioles are improving, but as everyone knows, the AL East is just absurdly good, and the O's are way too young and inexperienced (I know, one could have said that about the Rays last year, but the O's are still in a different position). My guess is more along the lines of 70-92.

The Oriole Way said...

Completely agree. I think it's very possible that the Orioles are a much improved team from last season, but that doesn't necessarily translate to them winning a bunch more games. Playing 18 games apiece against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox means that fully 1/3 of the O's schedule is against legitimate World Series contenders... and that's just within the division! Still, extreme predictions rarely come true. Thus a win number in the low 70s is probably a reasonable estimate, which is where BP now has the O's (74 wins).