First up: Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA system
The Orioles are projected at 76-86, which would seem to be a Herculean achievement in a division with three 90-game winners. The AL East is going to be very, very good.
I'll post more predictions as they come available and have my own as Spring Training unfolds and we get a bit more certainty regarding the composition of rosters and pitching staffs.
UPDATE: When you click through the link to Baseball Prospectus, you'll see a different chart than the one above. As roster moves are made and more clarity surrounds playing time and injuries, BP is rerunning its projections. The Bobby Abreu signing bounced the Angels into first place, and in the latest run the Orioles had their projected record fall to 74-88.
UPDATE II: Baseball Prospectus has posted the standings with a discussion of each division and playoff chances for each team. The Orioles, despite being projected for 5th place, have a higher chance at winning the wild card (4.5%) than any team from any other AL division. Just more evidence that the 2009 AL East may be the toughest division in recent history.