Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Kevin Millwood

Multiple sources are linking the Orioles to Kevin Millwood after Day 1 of the Winter Meetings, with Felix Pie being the most likely player moved for pitching help. Now, the Orioles could certainly use the 30 starts Millwood is likely to provide, but this is not a move with much upside. Millwood went 13-10 with a 3.67 ERA in 198.2 IP last season, but was 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 168.2 IP in 2008. In reality, his talent lies somewhere between those extremes.

In 2008, Millwood suffered from an abnormally high BaBIP of .366, and, similarly, he was a bit lucky with a .279 BaBIP in 2009. He will be 35 in 2010, and he hasn't reached his career average strikeout rate (7.03 K/9) since 2004, coming in last season at just 5.57 K/9. He's under contract through 2010 at $12 million, so this would almost certainly be a 1-year stopgap. Felix Pie seems a steep price to pay for one season of a league average starting pitcher.

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