Monday, August 30, 2010

Orioles Attendance (Revisited)

Remember a few weeks ago when The Sun ran a piece asserting that despite the Orioles awful start to the season attendance was actually running higher than a year ago?  And remember how I did a little fancy math and took issue with their assertion?  What's happened since then?

Well, things look like we would expect them to for a team threatening to turn in the worst season in franchise history.  That is, attendance is lower than a year ago.  Last year, on August 31, the Orioles were averaging 24,365 fans per game; today (with one game still to go in August), the O's are drawing 21,069.  That's a decline of 13.5%.  Interestingly, the model I built this spring predicts 24,115 fans per game for the O's, very similar to last season's actual results, indicating that the two seasons have now seen a similar attendance generating schedule for the club.

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