Wednesday, April 1, 2009

2009 Opening Day Rotation

With the news that Hayden Penn has been shipped to Miami, it seems as if the Orioles Opening Day rotation is set: Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Alredo Simon, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson (in some order). Just for fun, let's look at their 2009 PECOTA Projections.

First off, I'm not sure why PECOTA is so bearish on Guthrie, but I'll guess it has to do with BABIP regression from a very low .261 in 2008. Next, we can see that this projected starting rotation, which Baseball Prospectus projects to contribute just 635 innings (last year's rotation threw 250 more than that), is expected to perform only slightly better than last year's motley crew. Still, I think it's safe to say that if Simon, Eaton, and Hendrickson live up to those numbers, they won't be approaching the 110 IP that those projections expect. Since MLB refuses to shorten the schedule for the Orioles this season, someone needs to make those 162 starts. I just don't think it will be those threee guys. Perhaps the cavalry?

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