The Orioles got off to a 4-0 start and are an impressive 6-3 after facing the Rays, Tigers and Rangers to open the season. The ballpark has shown signs of life, and the Orioles are the talk of the town. So why am I not more excited? Because the fundamentals don't support the hot start. To wit:
The offense (all numbers coming in to games of 4/11, league ranks in parentheses):
Team OBP: .282 (12th)
Team SLG: .348 (10th)
Team Runs: 35 (9th)
RISP: .360/.424/.720
The Orioles offense has scored more runs than its OBP and SLG would suggest because they've compensated by doing an excellent job of driving in those few runners that do reach scoring position. Based on the team-wide .243 BAbip (.400 with RISP), I would expect a bit better performance in general but with less clutchiness and for this to be a roughly league average offense.
And the pitching:
Team K/9: 6.2 (10th)
Team BB/9: 3.6 (9th)
Team HR/9: 1.1 (9th)
Team Runs Allowed: 32 (4th)
Much like the offense, the pitching is outperforming its peripheral numbers. Why? A .234 BAbip allowed. I'm willing to bet that number finishes closer to .300 than .234 (above .267). The young staff absolutely has some upside to it, but the aggregate numbers don't suggest much staff-wide improvement yet. And before you say "But the defense is much improved!," the BAbip for the 1970 O's (with Brooks, Mark Belanger, Davey Johnson, Don Buford, Merv Rettenmund and Paul Blair) was .264.
I would like nothing more than to see this O's club make a run at contention, but so far, nothing has dissuaded me that this is still a .500 team with the same odd roster construction and personnel decisions we all scratched our heads over earlier this spring.
Showing posts with label 2011 Orioles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 Orioles. Show all posts
Monday, April 11, 2011
Friday, March 4, 2011
Five Reasons for Optimism
I'm back! Just one more class to go in my MBA career, and then maybe I'll have a bit more time to devote to the blog on a regular basis.
Matt Vensel today posted "Five reasons for Orioles optimism in 2011". Spring is obviously the season for optimism, but these are some pretty pessimistic optimistic indicators. Running through Matt's reasons:
5. A lineup without holes: This is largely true, in so much as they now have 9 position players absolutely worthy of regular at-bats in the Major Leagues. Unfortunately, it's also a lineup without much upside. Take a look through the Camden Crazies projections for this season; lots of guys with about 2.0 WAR. And now look at the ages of those regulars:
Matt Wieters, 25; Derrek Lee, 35; Brian Roberts, 33; Mark Reynolds, 27; JJ Hardy, 28; Luke Scott, 33; Adam Jones, 25; Nick Markakis, 27; Vlad Guerrero, 36.
Aside from Adam Jones (1800 career plate appearances) and Matt Wieters (900 plate appearances), no one else will play this season at an age where we can reasonably expect an improvement on their established level of performance. While I do think we'll see better numbers from Matt Wieters, Adam Jones has enough plate appearances now that it is difficult to expect big steps forward. Frankly, looking at that lineup is kind of depressing if you want the Orioles to build any sort of sustainable legitimate playoff contender.
4. Vlad the Impaler: Daniel covers this one ably. And as even Matt points out, he only hit 9 homers after the break last year.
3. The relative health of Roberts: I thought this was a post about optimism? Brian has already missed time in camp this spring with a strained neck, and the health of a balky backed 33-year old middle infielder seems much more like it belongs on a "worries" list.
2. The most interesting manager in the world: I like Buck, I really do. But if you're banking on the manager to take your club from 66 wins to the promised land, I hope your down payment on playoff tickets is refundable.
1. The young starting rotation: This is one with which I largely agree. I'm driving the Brian Matusz bandwagon, and I still harbor optimism that Chris Tillman can figure things out if only the organization will leave him alone in the Majors for a few months. I think Arrieta and Bergesen are both the type of arms that good organizations should turn out regularly, and I'm tremendously excited for Zach Britton. Guthrie isn't young, but he's still cheap and has proven to be a very valuable innings muncher.
In conclusion, this is a team that can reasonably be expected to make a run at .500, which, considering the miserableness of the past few years, is certainly a step forward but hardly anything to get excited about. The young pitching, however, really does have some upside. If there are legitimate reasons for optimism, they are on the mound.
Matt Vensel today posted "Five reasons for Orioles optimism in 2011". Spring is obviously the season for optimism, but these are some pretty pessimistic optimistic indicators. Running through Matt's reasons:
5. A lineup without holes: This is largely true, in so much as they now have 9 position players absolutely worthy of regular at-bats in the Major Leagues. Unfortunately, it's also a lineup without much upside. Take a look through the Camden Crazies projections for this season; lots of guys with about 2.0 WAR. And now look at the ages of those regulars:
Matt Wieters, 25; Derrek Lee, 35; Brian Roberts, 33; Mark Reynolds, 27; JJ Hardy, 28; Luke Scott, 33; Adam Jones, 25; Nick Markakis, 27; Vlad Guerrero, 36.
Aside from Adam Jones (1800 career plate appearances) and Matt Wieters (900 plate appearances), no one else will play this season at an age where we can reasonably expect an improvement on their established level of performance. While I do think we'll see better numbers from Matt Wieters, Adam Jones has enough plate appearances now that it is difficult to expect big steps forward. Frankly, looking at that lineup is kind of depressing if you want the Orioles to build any sort of sustainable legitimate playoff contender.
4. Vlad the Impaler: Daniel covers this one ably. And as even Matt points out, he only hit 9 homers after the break last year.
3. The relative health of Roberts: I thought this was a post about optimism? Brian has already missed time in camp this spring with a strained neck, and the health of a balky backed 33-year old middle infielder seems much more like it belongs on a "worries" list.
2. The most interesting manager in the world: I like Buck, I really do. But if you're banking on the manager to take your club from 66 wins to the promised land, I hope your down payment on playoff tickets is refundable.
1. The young starting rotation: This is one with which I largely agree. I'm driving the Brian Matusz bandwagon, and I still harbor optimism that Chris Tillman can figure things out if only the organization will leave him alone in the Majors for a few months. I think Arrieta and Bergesen are both the type of arms that good organizations should turn out regularly, and I'm tremendously excited for Zach Britton. Guthrie isn't young, but he's still cheap and has proven to be a very valuable innings muncher.
In conclusion, this is a team that can reasonably be expected to make a run at .500, which, considering the miserableness of the past few years, is certainly a step forward but hardly anything to get excited about. The young pitching, however, really does have some upside. If there are legitimate reasons for optimism, they are on the mound.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
2011 Roster
At the risk of getting overly excited and jumping the gun, it appears that the O's may be getting close to trading for J.J. Hardy. If true, the Orioles will have gone a long way toward filling out their 2011 roster. Let's take a quick look at how things are shaping up.
CA: Matt Wieters
1B: open
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Felix Pie
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott
B: Nolan Reimold
B: Craig Tatum
B: Jake Fox
B: open (utility IF - Robert Andino/Cesar Izturis?)
SP: Brian Matusz
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Brad Bergesen
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Jake Arrieta
CL: Koji Uehara (rumored)
LRP: Mike Gonzalez
RRP: Jim Johnson
RRP: Jason Berken
RRP: Alfredo Simon
LRP: open
?RP: open
That leaves four open spots (assuming the O's come to terms with Koji): 1B, utility IF, another lefty for the bullpen, and one more bullpen arm. There appear to be lots of irons in the fire for 1B (maybe Derek Lee?), and utility IF won't be tough to fill, but what to do with the bullpen? My guess is the O's sign one of the many available righties and also bring back Mark Hendrickson. They could also bring in another veteran starter to provide some depth, perhaps shifting Tillman or Arrieta back to Norfolk (again) or to the bullpen for the time being. Either way, the 2011 roster looks close to being set. Not a contender, but that looks to me like a big improvement over what was on the field for most of 2010.
CA: Matt Wieters
1B: open
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Felix Pie
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott
B: Nolan Reimold
B: Craig Tatum
B: Jake Fox
B: open (utility IF - Robert Andino/Cesar Izturis?)
SP: Brian Matusz
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Brad Bergesen
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Jake Arrieta
CL: Koji Uehara (rumored)
LRP: Mike Gonzalez
RRP: Jim Johnson
RRP: Jason Berken
RRP: Alfredo Simon
LRP: open
?RP: open
That leaves four open spots (assuming the O's come to terms with Koji): 1B, utility IF, another lefty for the bullpen, and one more bullpen arm. There appear to be lots of irons in the fire for 1B (maybe Derek Lee?), and utility IF won't be tough to fill, but what to do with the bullpen? My guess is the O's sign one of the many available righties and also bring back Mark Hendrickson. They could also bring in another veteran starter to provide some depth, perhaps shifting Tillman or Arrieta back to Norfolk (again) or to the bullpen for the time being. Either way, the 2011 roster looks close to being set. Not a contender, but that looks to me like a big improvement over what was on the field for most of 2010.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Elias Rankings
Those antiquated, head-scratching Elias Free Agent Rankings that will drive the market for many a veteran this off-season are out over at mlbtraderumors.com, and the Orioles have two players on the list, Koji Uehara and Kevin Millwood. Should the O's offer either of these Type B free agents arbitration?
In this discussion, it's important to remember that a Type B free offered arbitration nets the player's former club a supplemental compensation draft pick but does not cost the signing club it's own pick. Thus, unlike Type A players who come with a cost over and above the contract dollars for which they sign (a surrendered draft pick), Type B players that are offered arbitration won't see reduced demand for their services. With the technicalities out of the way, let's analyze the situations for both Koji and Millwood.
Koji Uehara: 2 year/$10 million contract expired
2010 stats: 44.0 IP, 11.25 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 2.40 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR
2009 stats: 66.2 IP, 6.48 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 3.56 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 1.7 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR
Despite pitching barely 110 innings over two seasons, Koji earned his $10 million keep, returning 2.5-3.0 WAR (depending on your methodology). He was especially good out of the bullpen this season, proving an effective closer for the final two months of the season. Most impressive (other than his sideburns, of course)? His walk rates. He didn't walk a single batter after August 4, a span of 26.1 IP. And, oh, yeah: he struck out 35 during that time. His overall numbers weren't BABIP aided, and both his FIP and xFIP back up the notion that he can be an excellent reliever. Now, I am far from an expert on arbitration awards, but he only had 13 saves and made $5 million in 2010. That seems like a recipe for an award in the $7-$8 million range, and I think Koji is a solid bet to worth that amount out of the 'pen. Recommendation: Offer arbitration. If he accepts, fine. If you resign him and avoid arbitration, great. If he declines, take the pick.
Kevin Millwood: 5 year/$60 million contract expired
2010 stats: 190.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 1.3 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR
2009 stats: 198.2 IP, 5.57 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 4.80 FIP, 4.78 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR
Millwood is clearly on his last legs as a Major League starting pitcher. He's been roughly the same pitcher since 2007, striking out a bit more than 6 batters per nine while walking about 3 per nine with an ERA fluctuating between solid and poor as his BABIP moves around the league average. He's not a good bet to be worth more than a win (or maybe two), meaning that he'll almost assuredly be overpaid in arbitration. He is, however, a very durable pitcher with the ability munch a lot of innings. Plus, an arbitration award would mean just a one year commitment.
I suspect that the team would very much like to have another veteran arm to complement Guthrie and Matusz; Arrieta, Bergesen and Tillman are still wild cards in terms of their performance, and Zach Britton may or may not be ready for the big league rotation. Thus, the question becomes whether or not the club can entice a similar pitcher to Millwood to sign in Baltimore for a lower cost (for clarity's sake, I'm working on the wild assumption that Cliff Lee isn't coming to Baltimore). Looking at the list of free agent pitchers, filled with injury question marks and guys seeking longer-term deals, I'm not sure they can. Recommendation: Offer arbitration, assuming an award in the $10-$12 million range. Ideally, you'd sign a player like Millwood for about $6 million, so if he accepts, you've overpaid for stability, but haven't locked yourself into a long-term deal. If you resign him and avoid arbitration, you've still overpaid, but haven't locked yourself into a long-term deal. And if he declines because he doesn't want to return to Baltimore and he's willing to accept less money elsewhere, take the pick.
I realize my Millwood recommendation is both expensive and controversial. Disagree with my conclusion? Let me know why.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2011
Inspired by the Royals Authority, I decided to take at look at what the Orioles can expect in 2011, in terms of WAR. According to FanGraphs, the 2010 Orioles have posted a mere 10.8 WAR, 29th in baseball (ahead of only Pittsburgh). At the other end of the spectrum, the Twins (43.3), Red Sox (40.0), Rays (37.2), Yankees (35.7), Giants (35.6), Braves (35.4), Padres (35.0), and Rangers (34.2) show what it takes to be a contender.*
*On the other hand, the Blue Jays (34.0) show just how hard it is to compete in the AL East. They'd be fighting neck-and-neck in nearly any other division in baseball.
In 2009, both the Yankees (58.4) and Red Sox (52.5) topped 50 wins, while the Red Sox (59.5) and Cubs (51.4) turned the trick in 2008; in 2007, the Red Sox posted 55.9 WAR with Yankees second at 49.7. (Full results available here; you have to add pitcher and hitter results). Thus, since the Orioles must build a team capable of being the best in baseball in order to challenge within its own division, the O's need to build a 45 to 50 WAR team in order to compete for a playoff spot out of the American League East. Can they do that in the near future? Let's go position by position.
Pos: Projected 2011 Player (2010 WAR, 2009 WAR)
CA: Matt Wieters (1.7, 1.6) Wieters is a key for the club going forward. His scouting pedigree and minor league track record suggests a future MVP candidate. His current Major League production is solid average. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR
1B: Nolan Reimold (-0.3, 1.3) After a very solid offensive debut in 2009, Reimold fell off a cliff in 2010. I'm inclined to chalk it up to his Achilles injury, and he has been hitting better at Norfolk of late, but September will be a crucial audition for Reimold. 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR
2B: Brian Roberts (0.3, 3.9) From 2003 to 2009, Roberts posted win totals of 2.5, 2.4, 6.7, 3.2, 4.7, 4.8 and 3.9. Then, he suffered a back injury while working out this past off-season and has been slow to return to his former self. Most ominously, his range in the field looks severely diminished. Will an off-season lead to further recovery and a return of the B-Rob of old, or is he destined to make laughable his contract extension? 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
SS: I have no idea (Cesar Izturis: -0.5, 1.1) Thanks to a replacement level bat and a good glove, Cesar Izturis posted a postive WAR season in 2009. His glove has slipped in 2010, making him sub-replacement level. Given the scarcity of shortstop options likely to be available this off-season, it's tough to project anything more than replacement level for next season. 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
3B: Josh Bell (Bell and Miguel Tejada: -0.1, Melvin Mora: 1.2) Bell clearly has some talent, but he's also looked over-matched in his initial Major League at-bats. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR
LF: Felix Pie (-0.2, 1.2) I'm a big fan of Pie, but I'm unfortunately not sure if its warranted. He may be just a 4th outfielder, capable of producing in the right spot, but not good enough to merit an every day job. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR
CF: Adam Jones (1.6, 1.8) Another super athletic outfielder with an incredible ability to both amaze and confound. Sometimes he makes baseball look easy, and then he'll chase three straight down and away sliders and let a double fly over his head in center field. The whole package is still good, but he always leaves us expecting greatness that I'm not sure will ever be there over the course of entire season. 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
RF: Nick Markakis (1.8, 2.2) Is Nick the guy with the 7% walk rate from 2009 and the second half of 2010, or the 14% walk rate from 2008 and the first half of 2010? Is his defense above or below average? Will he ever hit 20 home runs again? He'll probably never again be the 6.3 WAR player he was in 2008, but can he be a 4.0 win guy over the life of his contract? For the Orioles to contend, he needs to be. 2011 Aggressive Projection: 4.0 WAR
DH: Luke Scott (2.7, 1.5) With a career .240 ISO, it's clear the man can hit for power. He's not a great defender, but he's not a bad one either, grading out just about average in left over the course of his career. Why the O's refused to let him play first base and instead signed Garrett Atkins I have no idea. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR
That's a total of 16.5 WAR from the regular offense. On to the pitching!
Starting Pitching:
Jeremy Guthrie (1.5, 1.1) 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR
Brian Matusz (1.8, 0.8) 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
Jake Arrieta (0.2) 2011 Projection: 0.5 WAR
Zach Britton (n/a) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Chris Tillman (0.0, -0.1) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Brad Bergesen (0.0, 2.3) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Do you have any better suggestions for how to project the pitching for next year? Clearly, these individuals are going to have an extremely large variance surrounding their projected outcome. I think that 2010 Guthrie is about what we can expect from him, while I'm hoping we see more of pound-the-strike-zone Brian Matusz going forward. As for the others? Well, maybe Tillman will finally put it all together, and maybe he won't. Britton could be a left-handed Brandon Webb, or he could be a left-handed Brad Bergesen. And Brad Bergesen? Well, I haven't a clue. Starting pitcher total: 4.0 WAR
Bullpen:
It's pretty useless to project a bullpen this far in advance, but with David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Alfredo Simon, and a quite a few other live arms in the organization, Andy MacPhail should be able to piece together a serviceable bullpen. What's a serviceable bullpen worth? Well, great relievers are worth 2.0-3.0 WAR, while about 100 individuals have accumulated a positive WAR value. As a team, the Orioles 2010 team has posted 1.1 WAR. On the other hand, a great bullpen properly leveraged can be worth 8.0 wins or more. Let's give them 3.0 WAR for 2011.
Add it all up and the Orioles project for about 23.5 WAR in 2011. While clearly far short of our 45 to 50 goal, how many wins is that? About 70. Yikes.
So, how can the Orioles break out of this path that they're on? Clearly, the easiest way is for the starting pitching to develop. Teams with great pitching pitching staffs can easily earn 15 or more wins from their starters and this group of young pitchers clearly has impressive upside potential. In our dream world, everyone develops at the same time; let's say there are an additional 10.0 potential WAR (2.0 from Matusz, 2.0 from Arrieta, 3.0 from Britton, and 3.0 from Tillman) on the starting pitching front. Next, we'll make Buck Showalter a bullpen match-up genius. Rather than the 3.0 WAR a mere mortal would achieve from the O's bullpen, we'll double that total and make the 'pen worth another 3.0 potential WAR. Now we're up to 36.5 and the O's are above .500! Where can we find another wins?
1) Acquire a quality shortstop. This won't come cheap, nor will it be easy, but this is the Orioles most glaring hole. Finding 3.0 WAR at the shortstop position is necessary for our rebuilding program to be a success. If not, the absolute best glove available should be sought and "for the best" should be hoped.
2) Find the Matt Wieters that left no survivors after batting practice. Can Wieters be the MVP candidate everyone thought he would become? He'd add another 2.0 WAR (or more) if he did.
3) Proper use of bench and platoon players. With Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott, the Orioles have surprising flexibility to play match-ups and rest regulars. Add another 1.0 WAR for bench players.
4) This still leaves the O's about 6.0 wins short of being a contender and lacking a stud bat in the middle of the lineup. Can Adam Jones add a few WAR to his total? What about Josh Bell; should the O's make a move to acquire a third baseman or first baseman? Can Brian Roberts bounce back?
While a realistic projection again foretells a losing season for the O's in 2011, the orange-tinted glasses look reveals enough upside on the pitching staff to push the club close to .500. A further clicking of the ruby orange slippers shows that enough development out of the young hitters could move the club into range to compete with the Blue Jays. If the team really wants to compete, though, it's going to have to do more than hope everything goes right (hint: it won't) with the existing roster. There are no stars on this team, and the lack of true top tier talents means that a reasonable ceiling for this club is probably the .500 mark, even if all goes well. To compete in the AL East, this team needs top shelf talent. Unfortunately, I don't have many suggestions for Mr. MacPhail when it comes to acquiring that talent.
*On the other hand, the Blue Jays (34.0) show just how hard it is to compete in the AL East. They'd be fighting neck-and-neck in nearly any other division in baseball.
In 2009, both the Yankees (58.4) and Red Sox (52.5) topped 50 wins, while the Red Sox (59.5) and Cubs (51.4) turned the trick in 2008; in 2007, the Red Sox posted 55.9 WAR with Yankees second at 49.7. (Full results available here; you have to add pitcher and hitter results). Thus, since the Orioles must build a team capable of being the best in baseball in order to challenge within its own division, the O's need to build a 45 to 50 WAR team in order to compete for a playoff spot out of the American League East. Can they do that in the near future? Let's go position by position.
Pos: Projected 2011 Player (2010 WAR, 2009 WAR)
CA: Matt Wieters (1.7, 1.6) Wieters is a key for the club going forward. His scouting pedigree and minor league track record suggests a future MVP candidate. His current Major League production is solid average. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR
1B: Nolan Reimold (-0.3, 1.3) After a very solid offensive debut in 2009, Reimold fell off a cliff in 2010. I'm inclined to chalk it up to his Achilles injury, and he has been hitting better at Norfolk of late, but September will be a crucial audition for Reimold. 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR
2B: Brian Roberts (0.3, 3.9) From 2003 to 2009, Roberts posted win totals of 2.5, 2.4, 6.7, 3.2, 4.7, 4.8 and 3.9. Then, he suffered a back injury while working out this past off-season and has been slow to return to his former self. Most ominously, his range in the field looks severely diminished. Will an off-season lead to further recovery and a return of the B-Rob of old, or is he destined to make laughable his contract extension? 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
SS: I have no idea (Cesar Izturis: -0.5, 1.1) Thanks to a replacement level bat and a good glove, Cesar Izturis posted a postive WAR season in 2009. His glove has slipped in 2010, making him sub-replacement level. Given the scarcity of shortstop options likely to be available this off-season, it's tough to project anything more than replacement level for next season. 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
3B: Josh Bell (Bell and Miguel Tejada: -0.1, Melvin Mora: 1.2) Bell clearly has some talent, but he's also looked over-matched in his initial Major League at-bats. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR
LF: Felix Pie (-0.2, 1.2) I'm a big fan of Pie, but I'm unfortunately not sure if its warranted. He may be just a 4th outfielder, capable of producing in the right spot, but not good enough to merit an every day job. 2011 Projection: 1.0 WAR
CF: Adam Jones (1.6, 1.8) Another super athletic outfielder with an incredible ability to both amaze and confound. Sometimes he makes baseball look easy, and then he'll chase three straight down and away sliders and let a double fly over his head in center field. The whole package is still good, but he always leaves us expecting greatness that I'm not sure will ever be there over the course of entire season. 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
RF: Nick Markakis (1.8, 2.2) Is Nick the guy with the 7% walk rate from 2009 and the second half of 2010, or the 14% walk rate from 2008 and the first half of 2010? Is his defense above or below average? Will he ever hit 20 home runs again? He'll probably never again be the 6.3 WAR player he was in 2008, but can he be a 4.0 win guy over the life of his contract? For the Orioles to contend, he needs to be. 2011 Aggressive Projection: 4.0 WAR
DH: Luke Scott (2.7, 1.5) With a career .240 ISO, it's clear the man can hit for power. He's not a great defender, but he's not a bad one either, grading out just about average in left over the course of his career. Why the O's refused to let him play first base and instead signed Garrett Atkins I have no idea. 2011 Projection: 2.5 WAR
That's a total of 16.5 WAR from the regular offense. On to the pitching!
Starting Pitching:
Jeremy Guthrie (1.5, 1.1) 2011 Projection: 1.5 WAR
Brian Matusz (1.8, 0.8) 2011 Projection: 2.0 WAR
Jake Arrieta (0.2) 2011 Projection: 0.5 WAR
Zach Britton (n/a) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Chris Tillman (0.0, -0.1) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Brad Bergesen (0.0, 2.3) 2011 Projection: 0.0 WAR
Do you have any better suggestions for how to project the pitching for next year? Clearly, these individuals are going to have an extremely large variance surrounding their projected outcome. I think that 2010 Guthrie is about what we can expect from him, while I'm hoping we see more of pound-the-strike-zone Brian Matusz going forward. As for the others? Well, maybe Tillman will finally put it all together, and maybe he won't. Britton could be a left-handed Brandon Webb, or he could be a left-handed Brad Bergesen. And Brad Bergesen? Well, I haven't a clue. Starting pitcher total: 4.0 WAR
Bullpen:
It's pretty useless to project a bullpen this far in advance, but with David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Alfredo Simon, and a quite a few other live arms in the organization, Andy MacPhail should be able to piece together a serviceable bullpen. What's a serviceable bullpen worth? Well, great relievers are worth 2.0-3.0 WAR, while about 100 individuals have accumulated a positive WAR value. As a team, the Orioles 2010 team has posted 1.1 WAR. On the other hand, a great bullpen properly leveraged can be worth 8.0 wins or more. Let's give them 3.0 WAR for 2011.
Add it all up and the Orioles project for about 23.5 WAR in 2011. While clearly far short of our 45 to 50 goal, how many wins is that? About 70. Yikes.
So, how can the Orioles break out of this path that they're on? Clearly, the easiest way is for the starting pitching to develop. Teams with great pitching pitching staffs can easily earn 15 or more wins from their starters and this group of young pitchers clearly has impressive upside potential. In our dream world, everyone develops at the same time; let's say there are an additional 10.0 potential WAR (2.0 from Matusz, 2.0 from Arrieta, 3.0 from Britton, and 3.0 from Tillman) on the starting pitching front. Next, we'll make Buck Showalter a bullpen match-up genius. Rather than the 3.0 WAR a mere mortal would achieve from the O's bullpen, we'll double that total and make the 'pen worth another 3.0 potential WAR. Now we're up to 36.5 and the O's are above .500! Where can we find another wins?
1) Acquire a quality shortstop. This won't come cheap, nor will it be easy, but this is the Orioles most glaring hole. Finding 3.0 WAR at the shortstop position is necessary for our rebuilding program to be a success. If not, the absolute best glove available should be sought and "for the best" should be hoped.
2) Find the Matt Wieters that left no survivors after batting practice. Can Wieters be the MVP candidate everyone thought he would become? He'd add another 2.0 WAR (or more) if he did.
3) Proper use of bench and platoon players. With Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott, the Orioles have surprising flexibility to play match-ups and rest regulars. Add another 1.0 WAR for bench players.
4) This still leaves the O's about 6.0 wins short of being a contender and lacking a stud bat in the middle of the lineup. Can Adam Jones add a few WAR to his total? What about Josh Bell; should the O's make a move to acquire a third baseman or first baseman? Can Brian Roberts bounce back?
While a realistic projection again foretells a losing season for the O's in 2011, the orange-tinted glasses look reveals enough upside on the pitching staff to push the club close to .500. A further clicking of the ruby orange slippers shows that enough development out of the young hitters could move the club into range to compete with the Blue Jays. If the team really wants to compete, though, it's going to have to do more than hope everything goes right (hint: it won't) with the existing roster. There are no stars on this team, and the lack of true top tier talents means that a reasonable ceiling for this club is probably the .500 mark, even if all goes well. To compete in the AL East, this team needs top shelf talent. Unfortunately, I don't have many suggestions for Mr. MacPhail when it comes to acquiring that talent.
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