Outfield Defense

This is an interesting piece by Howard Megdal on outfield defense in left and right field (HT: Rob Neyer) for the New Yorks Mets, and one that may also be applicable to the Orioles. Nick Markakis has a reputation among fans and the media as being excellent defensively, but I suspect most scouts (and certainly the defensive numbers) would say he has perhaps average range and a very good arm. Felix Pie may be the opposite in left field, while Luke Scott is a bit below average on both counts.

Neyer notes that if  more balls are hit to left field than to right field (a right handed batter pull bias) then it stands to reason that left field defense would be more important than right field defense. That may well be true, but I'll suggest one more reason: left field is inherently more difficult than right field. In my experience, it is much easier to pick up the flight of a ball hit by a right handed hitter in right field than it is in left field (reverse that for left handed batters). With more right handed batters than left handers, this difference does suggest that the outfielder capable of getting better reads should play left field.

There are, of course, a few other issues that we might consider:
1) Who has a stronger arm? This is certainly important; throwing is more important in right field than in left.
2) Are there any ballpark specific factors that affect the decision? For instance, right field in Camden Yards, with its high wall, grounds crew viewing zone, and tricky corner, may be more difficult than left field.
3) How do the day's starting pitcher and opposing line-up project batted balls? Perhaps with left-hander on the mound against a right-handed heavy line-up a manager should place more emphasis on left field defense.

If Nick Markakis is one of your two corner outfielders, then it certainly makes sense to play him in right field; his arm is his most valuable defensive attribute. If, however, you're going to give Nick a day off and are trying to decide which corner should by manned by Luke Scott and which by Felix Pie, perhaps the counterintuitive but correct response would be to play Scott in right. Anyone have some data?

Fans Scouting Reports

Got a view on the just how good (or average) Adam Jones or Nick Markakis is at defense?  Then let your voice be heard!

Gold Gloves

I've kept silent about Adam Jones winning the Gold Glove award this season, largely because the various defensive metrics indicate that he had a poor season in the field (I even highlighted it in my look ahead to the offseason). Joe Posnanski found an interesting tidbit, though:

The Doyen of Defense, John Dewan, wrote an interesting thing the other day. He
was trying to determine if Torii Hunter or Adam Jones deserved their Gold
Gloves. And while he hit several points, the one that stuck out for me was this:
Adam Jones led the league with four home run saving catches.

That explains it perfectly! Of course Adam Jones would score highly on the system used by Rawlings to determine the Gold Gloves: he looks like a great defender. He makes spectacular catches, runs gracefully, and has a great arm. Franklin Gutierrez, who turned in an all-time great defensive season for Seattle, was more deserving of the Gold Glove, but it's difficult to fault the voters when Jones made so many memorable plays. People who watched the Orioles play all season long picked up the same thing as the metrics: Jones, who frequently plays shallow, had difficulty on deep balls. Most evaluators, though, don't have the luxury of watching a full season, and it's these situations where objective metrics need to supplement subjective opinions.
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The Little Things

Managers and coaches and fond of telling their players that wins and losses tend to hinge on the little things: throwing to the right base, advancing from first to third on a single, or making the routine defensive play. In the early years of rigorous baseball analysis, analysts were quickly able to quantify hitting and pitching: the big things. In recent years, though, progress on capturing the little things, such as defense and baserunning, has been remarkable. Defensive statistics are starting to make their way into the mainstream, and baserunning stats will likely follow shortly.

As we're all painfully aware, the Orioles have made several high profile baserunning blunders in recent weeks. The blunders have been so egregious that today Peter Schmuck's column wonders whether this lack of attention to detail could eventually cost Dave Trembley his job. Are these just one-off events, magnified by the late-game situation? Or are the Orioles really a bad baserunning team, as Schmuck asserts (without any corresponding data)? Using the Baseball Prospectus statistics page, not only are the Orioles one of the worst baserunning teams, they are the worst baserunning team. The Orioles rank dead last in EqBRR, a measure which indicates the "number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." In other words, it measures how frequently a team takes extra bases. According to EqBRR, the Orioles have lost 17.4 runs this season from their baserunning, compared to an average team. Using the sabermetric rule of thumb that 10 runs = 1 win, that's nearly two wins missing from the Orioles total.

This offseason, I also made quite a big deal about the Orioles improving their defense. Unfortunately, that was wrong, at least based on a half year's worth of data. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles have actually faltered substantially on defense this season. Given that Aubrey Huff and Ty Wiggington have seen significant time at the infield corners, and that Cesar Izturis has been injured, this isn't entirely shocking, but it is still disappointing. Not only do the Orioles need to improve their pitching (mightily), but a renewed focus on the little things is also in order.
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Nerd Alert

For the nerds among us, Rob Neyer pointed me to two fantastic articles today. One, at The Hardball Times, raises serious questions regarding Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections, specifically the Davenport Translations used in converting minor league stats to Major League equivalents. Baseball Prospectus almost never responds to criticism--a significant failing, in my opinion--and I'm curious to see if they address what would seem to be serious errors in their calculations. The second, in Sports Illustrated, writes to a more mainstream audience about the use of defensive statistics by front offices today. Given the additions made by the Orioles this offseason, specifically Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis, it is safe to say that, even if they aren't on the cutting edge, the Orioles have taken defensive metrics into account in their player evaluations.
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Quantifying Defense

If you're at all interested in quantifying defensive value, please check out the Baseball Prospectus interview with John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible. Also, please do not look up my college defensive statistics and attempt to quantify them, thanks.
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Evaluating Outfield Arms

As any Orioles fan can tell you, Nick Markakis has an excellent outfield arm. But how does his arm rank compared to the rest of the league? And how much does arm matter when evaluating defense? FanGraphs does the heavy lifting, and Markakis comes out as the fourth best outfield arm in all of baseball. Before we get too carried away though, the best arm is worth about 15 runs more than the very worst arm per season. So while it does have some value, range and offense are clearly more important factors.

UPDATE: FanGraphs lives up to its name and delivers an outstanding pictorial depiction of the distribution of outfield talent along three dimensions: offense, range and throwing arm. The most amazing thing might be this nugget: "A league average bat who is an elite runner and thrower is about equal in value to a Ryan Braun type of hitter."
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

Great Field, No Hit

Baltimore fans have long had a soft spot in their hearts for great field, no hit shortstops, and with good reason. Luis Aparacio, Mark Belanger (who earned MVP votes in a season in which he batted .225), and Mike Bordick all played a slick shortstop but didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of pitchers. Some guy named Cal Ripken brought a new dynamic to the position, but Baltimore fans, perhaps more than any other franchise, knew that a championship caliber team needed a championship caliber gloveman up the middle. Now, modern sabermetrics lends new credence to the anecdotal evidence accumulated at Memorial Stadium and Camden Yards. And, if you're interested, Rob Neyer has a great discussion with FanGraphs' Eric Seidman (who liked the Izturis signing) where Seidman does an excellent job explaining how the numbers available today can adjust for the value a great shortstop provides.

Shortstop Woes

Coming into the season, shortstop was the Orioles' most glaring weakness. It's the end of June, and nothing has changed. As Jeff Zrebiec reports in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles are looking to trade for a shortstop.

The Orioles this season have employed five players at shortstop: Luis Hernandez, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fahey, Eider Torres and Alex Cintron. Perusing the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) list over at Baseball Prospectus, none has a VORP above zero. Cintron has posted a -0.3 number, Torres -0.7, Fahey -1.8, Hernandez -2.0, and Bynum -7.9 (note: VORP does not include defensive value). That's nearly 10% of the team's plate appearances given to players below replacement level. Clearly, shortstop is a need that must be addressed, at least in the long-term.

So what should the Orioles do? Well, there's not much out there worth trading for: Zrebiec mentions Jack Wilson, Clint Barmes, Brendan Harris and Felipe Lopez as names that the Orioles might be considering. Ick. Wilson has a career OPS of .689. Barmes had a solid rookie season in 2005 and got off to a solid start in 2008 before hitting the DL, but he's also walked just eight times in 145 at-bats and has a career .303 OBP. Harris finally got regular playing time last season in Tampa Bay and put up a 106 OPS+, but is down at an 84 OPS+ this season and is considered a brutally bad defender at shortstop. Lopez has a .653 OPS and makes $4.9 M this season. While these might be slightly better options than Brandon Fahey, they are certainly not long-term solutions for the position.

In spite of their offensive struggles at shortstop, the Orioles have accumulated a 40-37 record, two wins better than the 38-39 record their run differential (-8) would imply, and far above virtually all preseason predictions. How have they done it? In a word, defense. The Orioles rank first in defensive efficiency, converting 72% of balls in play into outs. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Chicago (AL) are next on the list, and all of these teams are also "surprise" winners this season. Oakland and Tampa, especially, have made a concerted effort to field excellent defensive teams. I do not think it is a coincidence that these teams are outperforming expectations and also play tremendous defense.

Cintron is probably the best offensive option for the Orioles, but his struggles defensively are amplified since the club wins by playing solid defense. If Dave Trembley believes he can't handle the position defensively, the only other internal option is Fahey, and he's proven he cannot hit at the Major League level. If the Orioles do decide to trade for a shortstop, they should target the best available defender that can produce offensively near replacement level. But unless they are able to trade Roberts, Sherrill, Huff, Scott or any of the other veterans for a legitimate prospect, nothing that fills the shortstop position for this season is going to be a part of the long-term plans to make this team a contender again.