The Matusz Outing

Erik Manning over at FanGraphs beat me to the punch this morning, breaking down Brian Matusz's PitchFX data before I had a chance to do so. However, I think he leaves out on key picture:

That shows a number of fastballs that Matusz missed with just off the plate inside to righthanders, and it also shows just how infrequently he threw his breaking balls. Matusz got good results last night, but that's definitely not as well as he can pitch.

Dave Cameron also broke down Chris Tillman.

Matusz Debut

It's the most anticipated Oriole pitching prospect debut since... last week. And, of course. that means I'll be live blogging. Check back right here once the game gets underway in about 20 minutes.

Top 1: Roberts starts the O's off right again tonight, this time doubling to right center field. For those who have been critical of Brian's effort at times this year, please note his hustle tonight. With a full count on Nolan Reimold, Brian broke for third. He nearly reached the bag, but Reimold lofted a fly ball to deep center. Brian retreated all the way to the second base bag, tagged up and advanced 90 feet. That's heads up baserunning and impressive hustle. Now, the Tigers are bringing the infield in with one out and Nick Markakis due up. This seems like a bad idea. Sure enough, Nick grounds one through the hole on the right side. The run would have scored either way, but it is possible that's the second out if the infield is at normal depth. Finally, Adam Jones grounds into a double play to end this inning. I have to say, I really like this lineup configuration. I hope that Reimold can continue to post a high enough OBP (.367 coming into tonight) to warrant batting at the top of the lineup. Coming up... Brian Matusz's debut!

Bottom 1: It's hard to believe that a year ago, Brian Matusz wasn't even a member of the Orioles organization. So far, so good: a soft pop to center for the first out of the inning.

Fastball: 92-93 mph
Change-up: 81 mph

Looking good... 1, 2, 3 inning!

Top 2: Here's a sentence I hope to write many times in the future: Matt Wieters gives Brian Matusz a 2-0 lead.

Bottom 2: Matusz is clearly comfortable pitching backwards (fastballs in breaking ball counts; breaking balls in fastball counts), and he has excellent command of his breaking balls. That's a recipe for success.

Good camera work from the MASN guys gives a nice view the circle change grip on the pitch Matusz used to strike out Miguel Cabrera. That's a pretty good hitter to get for your first career strike out.

A 3-1 change-up to Raburn with a runner on second. I like it. The batter is going to be looking fastball, and Matusz was hoping to roll him over.

The first curve ball from Matusz comes in at 77 mph, on a 1-1 pitch to Inge with runners on first and second. Buck Martinez just got done telling a story regarding the pre-game pitching meeting; Matusz indicated his curve was his weakest pitch. He sure had confidence in throwing that one.

As a former catcher, Buck should know what he's talking about in evaluating pitch selection. He's on his game tonight, doing an excellent job evaluating the game being called by Wieters.

And that's why the O's signed Cesar Izturis: an excellent diving snag and flip to Roberts ends the inning.

Bottom 3: More excellent defense from Izturis; solid defense behind a young pitching staff was exactly what the Orioles were hoping for.

And now Buck makes the same point. Like I said, he's on his game tonight.

After getting ahead 1-2 to Miguel Cabrera, Matusz loses him for his third walk of the evening. Needless to say, we don't like walks. Martinez makes the point that Matusz is becoming a bit too "change-up reliant" as Kranitz comes to the mound for a conference. Matusz has tried to establish his fastball, especially inside to righties, but he's just missed on numerous occassions. I don't know if he's trying to be too fine, or if he's getting squeezed, but a few more fastball strikes would greatly improve his outing.

Top 4: Jones showed bunt on the first pitch of the inning, but Inge (who was playing deep) apparently indicated that he would not be moving up to take the bunt away. Jones has done this a bit in recent weeks, and I like it. It didn't work this time, but if he can get the third baseman a few feet closer, he's more likely to sneak one by every once in a while. I used the tactic during my career to keep teams from employing a full-fledged shift and I know it helped my batting average. I like Adam Jones more with each passing day.

Bottom 4: A pair of doubles plates the first runs for the Tigers and pushes Matusz past the 80 pitch mark. Given his bouts of mini-wildness in the 2nd and 3rd, it looks like he'll be unable to throw more than 5.0 innings tonight. Orioles lead 2-1.

Top 5: Cesar Izturis is definitely the early leader for tonight's player of the game. His homer gives Matusz and the O's a 3-1 lead.

Bottom 5: MASN just showed the graphic that 18 years ago tonight Mike Mussina made his debut against the White Sox. Let's hope another Orioles top prospect is beginning a Hall of Fame career on August 4.

After a Miguel Cabrera double to put runners at second and third, Matusz bears down and strikes out Thames and Raburn to end the inning. Through 5.0, the O's lead 3-1.

Assuming we've seen the last of Matusz, here's my summary of his outing: great change-up, but he was missing his fastball command tonight. He also didn't throw many sliders or curveballs. I'm guessing that adrenaline had a big impact on both of these; he may have been overthrowing a touch. In all, while he didn't pitch great, he's given the O's a chance to win and I'm incredibly excited for the Brian Matusz era. He clearly has the stuff, command and mound presence to justify his high selection and advancement to the Majors after just four professional months. He's going to be a good one.

Top 6: Sure enough, that's it for Matusz. He's in line to become the fifth different Orioles pitcher to win his Major League debut this season. This would be the first Major League team since 1890 to achieve that feat. We're still waiting on Jake Arietta, too.

Markakis just crushed a homer to right center with Reimold on first base. Have I mentioned that I like this line-up configuration?

A two-run single from Izturis ups the lead to 7-1. Let's hope the bullpen can hold this lead. And, with that, the live blog is done for the evening.
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Matusz Time!

Peter Schmuck, via Jeff Zrebiec, is reporting that Brian Matusz appears to be the winner of the "vigorous debate" over who will take the rotation slot vacated when Brad Bergesen hit the disabled list. Can't say that I disagree with the decision: Matusz is pretty clearly the next best (ok, maybe the very best) pitcher in the organization. So long as they resist the temptation to keep pitching him every five days through the beginning of October (which Schmuck indicates in the comments would be the case), I'm excited! We're finally getting a look at all the young pitching that is hopefully going to lead the Orioles back to contention. It's another good day in Birdland.
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Brad Bergesen

After turning in yet another quality start yesterday, Brad Bergesen hit the DL today thanks to a line drive off the bat of Billy Butler that left a nasty bruise and created quite the scare. Fortunately, it appears the injury will end up being minor. Still, the Orioles are right to be cautious; injuries to a pitcher's legs can cause slight alterations to mechanics and lead to cascading injuries as players adjust to compensate. It's also unfortunate that the Orioles will lose their most effective starter and a Rookie of the Year candidate for at least two weeks.

However, so long as the injury truly is minor, this could actually be a blessing in disguise. Bergesen has been worked fairly hard this year, having already thrown 134.1 innings, just 31 innings short of last season's total. With 61 games to go, Bergesen would likely make 10 to 12 more starts, easily pushing him past last year's total and perhaps close to 200 IP. That would make the 23-year old Bergesen a candidate for the "Verducci Effect", which basically states that young pitchers (< 25 years of age) should not exceed the previous season's inning total by more than 30 IP. This injury will likely keep him within that threshold, and perhaps keep him healthier for next year.

It's also worth noting that last year Chris Tillman threw 135.2 innings for Bowie. This season, he's notched 100.2 between Norfolk and Baltimore. If he gets 10 more starts, he'll likely finish in the 160 IP ranged, meaning that the Orioles will have successfully managed the 21-year old's workload as well. To round out the pitching prospects: Jake Arrieta threw 113.0 last year, and 110.2 so far this season. One more month in Norfolk would put him at about the allowable increase, but also preclude a September call-up. Brian Matusz has thrown 112.0 innings in 2009, and did not pitch professionally in 2008. He threw 105.0 collegiate innings in 2008, and 123.0 in 2007. As much as we'd probably like to see them, I doubt either debuts for the Orioles in 2009. Instead, we're probably in for a mix of Mark Hendrickson, Brian Bass, David Pauley and Chris Waters spot starts.
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Matt Wieters: The AAA Experience

A special thanks to Baseball America...

An inauspicious start as Wieters strikes out in his first at-bat. He atones quickly, however, gunning down Rays prospect Reid Brignac with a 1.91 pop time. For the Yankees today, Molina threw a nice pop to nab Felix Pie, but I didn't have my stopwatch out. Anyone seen the replay and timed that one?

In his second at-bat, Wieters lined out to a leaping second baseman. In other news Brad Bergesen seems to be pitching well, striking out six, allowing one earned run (two total) and just one walk and four hits through 5.0. He's not a hard-thrower, sitting at about 88-89 mph, so command is critical for him.

Update: Wieters just walked on five pitches in his third at-bat of the night.

Update II: Wieters struck out in his final at-bat, but Nolan Reimold homered to give the Tides their only run of the night. Elsewhere around the minors, both Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz pitched tonight. Arrieta threw 4.0 shutout innings for the Baysox against Akron, striking out eight, walking two and allowing just one hit. Matusz, in his professional debut, threw 6.0 innings, allowing two earned runs while striking out six, walking two, and giving up five hits. He is line for the victory if the Keys hold a 5-3 lead over Salem in the 9th. A pretty good night for your 2010 Baltimore Orioles.
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Phenom in the Making

When I opened up my Google Reader this morning I was greeted with a recap of yesterday's Spring Training game that began "Phenom in the making Matt Wieters..." Glad to see that MLB.com is on the man-crushing, too.

And don't look now, but Brian Matusz is making his presence felt in camp, too. Some observers think he could be a part of the O's rotation by the end of the year. I think MacPhail will be cautious, but he is obviously a great talent and could force the club's hand sooner than expected.
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Cleaning Out the Links

Running down some links still in my RSS reader from the past few days...

• Keith Law breaks down Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
• Peter Gammons reports the Orioles spent the 9th most on draft bonuses.
• The Baltimore Sun has even more on the signing bonuses MacPhail has given out.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus places two Orioles in the Top 50 and names another honorable mention in his Ultimate Fantasy Draft.

Law gives a very positive assessment of Tillman, though he does believe that his command (or lack of it) will keep him from being a true number one. Still, at just 20 years old and with a clean delivery, he could develop that command.

Look at the teams who are also on the top of that list from Gammons: the Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros. The Red Sox, Twins, Rays and Brewers have each reaped significant benefits from spending in the draft, and the Rangers Royals, and Pirates each have relatively new front offices that have placed a priority on rebuilding through the farm system. The Giants and Astros have poor records signing players and developing talent. Aside from those two, that's a great list on the which the Orioles appear, and perhaps the best evidence yet that MacPhail has truly ushered in a new Orioles era.

It's also a great development that the Orioles have shown a willingness to pick the player they deem to be the best talent and not just the player they can sign for a reasonable bonus. Matt Wieters was clearly the best of his draft class, and while the debate will certainly linger over whether the Orioles made the right pick with Matusz over Smoak, he was the first player on their draft board.

Finally, to see Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (another MacPhail acquisition) rated so highly is quite encouraging. But most exciting is that Matt Wieters is the most promising prospect in the minors.

It's Official

Brian Matusz is an Oriole. No terms were disclosed, but it appears that he signed a major league deal which immediately places him on the 40-man roster. Since he signed so late and the deal would require use of an option year for him to join an affiliate this year, he won't be pitching until the fall leagues. Assuming that's the case, he'll need to be on the major league club full-time by 2013 or the Orioles risk losing him to waivers. Considering that he is widely considered very close to the majors already, he would be a huge disappointment if he failed to meet that timeline. Now, wasn't all that angst over whether he would sign a little overdone?

UPDATE: The Sun is reporting that Matusz will get a $3.2 million signing bonus. That seems very reasonable for the fourth pick in the draft.

Signing Day & Waiver Trades

It's Brian Matusz signing day! Assuming the t's are crossed and i's dotted, of course, but with Matusz in town for a physical, that seems very, very likely.

The Sun also has info on Orioles players and their revocable waivers status:

• Aubrey Huff has passed through
• George Sherrill was claimed and pulled back
• Jay Payton passed through
• Kevin Millar passed through
• Jamie Walker passed through

Huff wasn't claimed because he is still owed a significant sum of money and is largely a DH only. That doesn't fit the needs of any AL contender in a competitive race--at this point only Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota. Tampa could probably use another bat, especially with their recent spat of injuries, but they've been down the Aubrey Huff road before and the parting was not amicable. Boston has David Ortiz, Chicago has about four DH's, and while Minnesota could use the bat, they probably wouldn't take the money.

I'm curious to know who claimed Sherrill--the Sun notes it was at least one unnamed AL team--and whether the Orioles attempted to work out a trade or if they pulled Sherrill back without negotiating. Sherrill is under team control for a few more years, so even though he profiles as an aging middle reliever, MacPhail has asked for significant return should he be traded. Depending on just how much he's asking for, I'm not sure I agree with that decision.

As for the others, I don't see any team looking to acquire those sorts of spare parts. Walker hasn't had any success against lefties this year (they have a shocking 1.049 OPS against him), and since he's a LOOGY that means he hasn't really had any success at all this year. Millar and Payton could both be useful to a contender, but since they are playing key roles for this mildly surprising Orioles team, neither is likely to be dealt, even though they have zero long-term value.

Matusz Update

I've been working on a fairly comprehensive post, but until that's ready, it appears the Orioles are close to signing Brian Matusz. It's amazing what a deadline and a few million bucks can accomplish.

That notebook is full of interesting tid bits:

• Nick Markakis frustratingly equates a "successful season" with RBI; RBI are surely a source of pride for a player, but they are extremely overrated by fans when evaluating the merits of individual players
• Bradley Bergesen could be coming to the Majors to start on Saturday, though there are several other candidates to start, including one--Dennis Sarfate--who would be pitching on full rest and is already on the roster
• Chris Ray has begun pitching for the Gulf Coast Orioles; may he pitch well and be ready for Spring Training

MLB Draft

Joe Sheehan has a thought provoking article up today at Baseball Prospectus. I completely agree with assessment of the draft:

The draft is a broken system, one in which Major League Baseball openly and unashamedly restricts the career options of hundreds of young men in order to save itself millions of dollars each year, and everyone nods and smiles. We accept the concept of a draft in sports because it has largely been sold as a mechanism for increasing competitive balance—the worst teams get the highest picks. In fact, drafting high and drafting well are completely different things, as any fan of the Pirates—or, at the other end of the spectrum, the Braves—could tell you. That the draft may help competitive balance in a league is a tertiary factor in its existence. What a draft actually does is keep teams from competing for the services of the best talent on the market, and keeps that talent from having any options when it comes to choosing their employer for their prime earning years. It’s a beautiful system…as long as you’re not a supremely talented baseball player trying to have a career.

As I discussed a few weeks ago, teams pay for talent based on the value they provide to the organization. Sheehan discusses this with, typically, much greater insight and forethought:

What is it to "grossly overpay" the second-best amateur player in the nation? Kevin speculated last week that the end result here would be a $6-8 million major league contract, which would mean an immediate place on the club's 40-man roster. Is that overpaying? What if it were $9 million, or $10 million? What is the value of a 22-year-old third baseman who is expected to be one of the better power hitters in the game—if perhaps at a different position—in short order? What is the value of owning that player’s rights for the next seven, eight, or even 10 years, as he ascends through the minors? What is the value of being able to pay that player near the league minimum for three full seasons, and perhaps the better part of a fourth? What is the value of being able to keep that player off of the free market for talent by paying below-market salaries for three years beyond that? What is the value of never having to compete for the services of a player of that caliber?

It's always popular to bash the drafted player for "unreasonable" demands because they are so "unproven." But, as Joe describes much more eloquently and forcefully than I did, only in sports do we do this:

Engineering firms don’t draft the top engineers and pay them below-market rates... We also wouldn’t tell them they had to work for a lousy firm, or in a city they might hate, far from their families. As a nation, we wouldn’t stand for that kind of thing, but we do in sports. In sports, we’re handing over the prime of players’ careers without ever giving them a chance to find out what they were worth. For many players, the step from amateur to professional is, in fact, the only time in their lives that they will have any leverage at all in their salary, if not their employer or place of work or management team. It is embarrassing to take so much away from them, then complain that they’re not being reasonable when it comes to the one thing that they can negotiate.

So while fans bash Brian Matusz and the other unsigned draft picks for being "greedy" and "only caring about the money," I hope they step back and ask themselves what they would do if they were among the best in the world at their chosen professions and not allowed to sell their skills on the open market. Because I would be asking for every penny possible from the only employer with whom I am allowed to negotiate.

Signing Deadline Looms

The Orioles have until Friday night to sign their first overall selection, Brian Matusz. He is "hopeful" that a deal will get done.

The waiting game is maddening and frustrating, but I predict the Orioles will ultimately get a deal done. Both sides stand to lose too much for a complete failure in the negotiations.

Draft Signing Updates

Kevin Goldstein runs down the entire first round of the 2008 draft, and has the following comments on Brian Matusz:

Negotiations: This is one of those interconnected deals. The Orioles and Matusz have had few productive discussions, because the Matusz side has been watching the talks with involving the ninth overall pick, Aaron Crow. They know that Crow wants a massive deal, and Matusz, as the top pitcher selected, won't settle for a penny less... but what if there's no deal to compare to? OK, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Prediction: A $4-6 million package that includes a major league deal.

Personally, I'm very opposed to giving amateurs Major League deals since, as we saw with Adam Loewen, roster requirements drive development time tables. However, Matusz is widely considered to be a polished arm that is close to the Majors, so a four-year timeline for his inclusion the 25-man roster is probably realistic. If he can't contribute in that time frame, it will be because injuries derailed his progress or he has significantly underperformed expectations. With those considerations, a Major League contract may be a tolerable risk in order for the O's to sign their top draft pick.

Brian Matusz Update

The Baltimore Sun reports the negotiations between the O's and Brian Matusz are in a holding pattern. The Orioles have just two weeks to sign Matusz or they will relinquish his rights, but I have no doubt that the O's will eventually get a deal done. Unfortunately, with the way MLB has mismanaged the draft, we're likely to see a lot more of these hold outs go down to the very last minute, just like the Wieters negotations last year. Since MLB has tried to limit bonuses through it's "slotting" system (where it suggests an appropriate bonus amount for each pick), several teams--the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and others--have routinely stocked up on premium prospects because they were willing to go above slot and pay the prospects their asking prices. Now, more teams, realizing that premium talent can command a premium price, are willing to pay but they are still leery of going against the commish. Thus, teams are playing a ridiculous game of chicken not wanting to be the first to dole out a bonus far above slot.

Several commenters to the Sun article have, predictably, lamented that today's ball player just wants to get paid and doesn't play for the love of the game. That's a lame argument. Teams give players bonuses on the expectation that they will produce future wins and, correspondingly, revenues. Teams that don't spend money on talent--whether at the prospect level or at the big league level--don't win, and then the fans complain that their owners are too cheap to put a winning ballclub on the field.

As a former player, all my sympathies lie with the drafted player. After he signs that first professional contract, the player cannot negotiate a new contract for years. The team controls the pay the player will receive throughout his minor league career and then for his first three Major League seasons. Then, for the next three years, the player's salary will be determined through the arbitration process. Granted, by this time, the player is making some pretty good cash, but it is only until after six full seasons that the player gets to choose his own employer through the free agent process. It's not for seven to ten years that players have full control over where they play! A player is absolutely right to use all their leverage in this situation; it will be a long time before they can use it again.