Shortstop

The Orioles need a shortstop.  Cesar Izturis is a free agent, and there are no viable internal options (sorry, Mr. Andino).  The Orioles could potentially resign Izturis, but his bat has deteriorated so incredibly far that even excellent defense leaves him below replacement level (-34 batting runs brought him to -0.4 fWAR in 2010).  The options on the free agent market are also extremely thin.  There is, however, one intriguing (potential) option: Hiroyuki Nakajima.  There is no guarantee that he will be posted this off season, and there are certainly questions over how well he would make the transition to MLB, but given the dearth of domestic options, this is one import the Orioles would do well to give a long, hard look.  Could signing Koji two years ago have also helped address the shortstop position?

Of Snow, Airlines, Beer and the Orioles

Considering that there is more than a foot of snow on the deck outside (and still plenty more to come, apparently), the 7:00 AM BWI to SLC flight didn't quite happpen this morning. On the plus side, we found this out last night and didn't wake up at 4:00 AM just to drive to BWI and sit at the airport all day. On the down side, Delta refuses to transport my wife and I to Oregon until Wednesday. Unless, of course, we're willing to pay them $1,500 to upgrade to first class. Instead, I'm sitting at home by the fire (ok, space heater), enjoying a malted beverage, and getting caught up on all the baseball news in my Google Reader.

As we all know, the Orioles made two signings this week: Mike Gonzalez and Garrett Atkins. I've posted my initial thoughts on Gonzalez already, and nothing there has changed. I should note, however, that his 2007 and 2008 innings totals are a product of May 2007 Tommy John surgery, not a series of recurring injuries. Regardless, I don't like the move. Before I move on to Atkins, here are some other reactions from around the Web:

FanGraphs:

Gonzalez has never been worth $6M in free agent dollars throughout his career
and while he should receive a boost from increased leverage, I guess I’m more
concerned about Gonzalez’ health than anything. Factor in the loss of next
year’s second round pick and I’m not sure I completely approve of giving decent
– not great, mind you – cash to a injury prone reliever coming off his heaviest
workload.

Rob Neyer:

On balance, I think it's difficult to justify Gonzalez's contract for one big
reason: last season was the first of his career in which he threw more than 54
innings. If there's a better than 50/50 chance of Gonzalez breaking down at some
point while he's in the Orioles' employ, he's not worth $12 million. And I think
he's going to break down.

Keith Law (in chat, when asked about Fernando Rodney as a pick-free alternative):

I can't object to that signing. I'd rather have Gonzalez than Rodney + a 2nd
rounder.

I think that about sums it up: Gonzalez has good talent, the money isn't exhorbinant (but is non-trivial), he's injury prone, and this costs a draft pick. On to Atkins...

The specs of the Atkins contract are 1-year guaranteed at $4.0 million plus an $8.5 million option with a $0.5 million buyout for year two. Since I sincerely doubt that Atkins will be worthy of the option, let's look at this as a 1-year, $4.5 million deal. FanGraphs does the heavy lifting on the analysis and concludes:

Including positional adjustment, over 150 games Atkins projects as about a 1.3
WAR player for 2010. Assuming $4.4 million per marginal win as average market
value, his $4.5 guarantee plus incentives seems to be in the right neighborhood.

So the Orioles paid a fair price for about what they're likely to be getting: a below average hitter and defender. Now, Atkins has had lots of success in the past, albeit in a very favorable run environment in the weaker league. If he can somehow rekindle that ability, this would be a nice coup for the Orioles. More likely, he keeps the position warm for Josh Bell, either later in 2010 or in 2011. Atkins does have the advantage of batting right-handed. His career splits are notably better against left-handed pitching, so it is also possible that even if he can't handle the everyday duties he caddies for Bell to protect the youngster who is still very much a work in progress from the right side of the plate. The FanGraphs conclusion mirrors my own:

It is worth reiterating that consistently paying “fair market value” isn’t
really a “smart” thing to do. Teams on budgets need to get more for their money
to win consistently, especially going up against New York and Boston in the
American League East. On the other hand, it isn’t particularly “dumb,” either.
It’s “average…” on average. It makes sense in this particular case. They
certainly didn’t want to bring back Melvin Mora, who has entered the undead
phase of his career. Baltimore’s prospects at third and first aren’t ready for
the major leagues yet. Atkins isn’t a star, and will be lucky to be league
average again. While Baltimore surely isn’t trying to contend, as has been noted
elsewhere, sometimes a team simply needs to put a competent player on the field
for fans. That’s okay as long the team doesn’t pay out the nose. Baltimore isn’t
paying excessively for Atkins, and he won’t be blocking any prospects who might
be ready for 2011. Way to bridge a gap, Mr. MacPhail.

Agreed: MacPhail didn't overpay in years or dollars, and someone had to play third base on Opening Day. Maybe the O's get lucky and Atkins bounces back. If not, they don't pick up his option and slot Josh Bell into the lineup for 2011.

One final point about Atkins, though, and it's that I think Keith Law's reaction is worth noting: "I don't get it - I wrote on Twitter the other day that I would hesitate to give him a roster spot." This certainly suggests that the projected numbers for Atkins aren't matching the decline in skills that scouts saw last season.

In other news, Baseball America released its Top 10 Orioles Prospects list under the headline "Help Is On The Way". I'll hopefully have more later.
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Felix Pie

Some good news today:

Speaking of Pie, there are several members of the organization that are very
much against trading the talented but raw outfielder. I’m not saying he won’t be
traded because there are enough teams interested and the Orioles are deep in the
outfield, but I am saying that the Orioles are going to have to get something
enticing back to deal him. Pie’s strong second half has earned him some
believers in the organization, and probably justified the team’s decision not to
trade him to the Chicago White Sox last year for third baseman Josh Fields.

These are my sentiments about Felix Pie exactly. He's always been talented, and he really did show signs of putting it all together last year. Yes, he is currently 4th on the outfield depth chart, but I see no reason that the Orioles can't get both Pie and Reimold regular at-bats. And it never hurts to have a capable back-up centerfielder on the roster. If the club does decide to deal Pie, it would have to be in a deal that brings back a significant piece.
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Cool to the Touch

As was totally, predictable, the Hot Stove hasn't really heated up yet. But, as Baseball Prospectus reported on Sunday, the Orioles have payroll to burn and figure to be active participants this offseason:

The Orioles have money to spend and they are eying a number of free agents,
including left-handers Erik Bedard and Randy Wolf, right-hander Rich Harden,
closer Billy Wagner, and first baseman Nick Johnson.

That's a pretty impressive list of targets.
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

So Far So Good

Though November was rather quiet, the hot stove had a few more logs thrown on the fire in December. The Orioles have traded Ramon Hernandez for Ryan Freel and are nearing a deal for Cesar Izturis. Neither deal is exactly headline worthy in an offseason where C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Kerry Wood, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Ben Sheets are all on the free agent market and Jake Peavy is the most sought after player widely known to be available via trade, but each fits nicely into MacPhail's strategy to remake the Orioles into a contender.

Hernandez was a spare part for this organization. Man-crush Matt Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors and deserves to be the full-time catcher next season, and moving Hernandez, even for a relatively paltry return like Freel and two marginal prospects, was a smart move. Freel is a valuable utility player; if healthy, he can play all the outfield spots, third base and second base, provide solid on-base skills, and potentially steal a few bases. And he provides a right-handed bat to pair with Luke Scott, and potentially Nolan Reimold, for platoon situations.

Izturis also fits nicely, even though he is clearly not a long-term solution for the Orioles shortstop woes. As a low-cost and short-term option, Izturis can provide excellent defense while offering replacement level offense. None of the other options on the market this winter (Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera) are likely to come with such a low price tag or provide significantly more value. After employing a revolving door at the position last season, Izturis will at least provide support for a work-in-progress pitching staff. Teams seem to have figured out in recent years is that a run saved is worth just as much--and perhaps even more--than a run scored and that turning batted balls into outs is a great way to save runs. Taking the great defense until a long-term solution for the position can be found is a smart move by MacPhail.

Offensively, this would seem to leave two holes for the Orioles to fill: 1) first base and 2) back-up catcher. A veteran back-up who can catch 30 or 40 games is a necessity; Wieters will be the full-time starter, but it certainly won't hurt to have him take a day off or spend time at DH once or twice a week. Mark Teixeira is obviously the wild card. While recent rumors have him headed to Boston, the Orioles haven't given up hope. He's an expensive player for a team with the Orioles budget, but he's a great hitter. Reasonable people can disagree on whether it is wise to spend the sums it will take to lure Teixeira, but his presence in the lineup would absolutely be welcomed. If the Orioles fail to sign him, they would still need another bat to play first base, since Aubrey Huff is limited to DH. One potential internal solution would be to play Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott at first base.

Potential lineup, without Teixiera:

2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
CA Matt Wieters
CF Adam Jones
1B Nolan Reimold
SS Cesar Izturis

Potential lineup, with Teixeira:

2B Brian Roberts
RF Nick Markakis
1B Mark Teixeira
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
CA Matt Wieters
3B Melvin Mora
CF Adam Jones
SS Cesar Izturis

That's not a bad looking line-up right there. Personally, I have higher hopes for Matt Wieters and would like to see him bat fifth, in part to break up the lefthanded hitting Huff and Scott.

Obviously, there is still much work to be done on the pitching staff. Only Jeremy Guthrie is assured of a spot in the rotation, and it is unlikely the Orioles will be able to sign any of the headline starters on the market. With help on the way in the minors, targeting draft-pick-cost free veterans is the right move for a team that is largely in search of placeholder innings. Hopefully, young pitchers like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Radhames Liz, David Hernandez and others will develop into viable options for 2010.

It's shaping up to be a productive offseason for the Orioles even if they don't make a big splash. Add Mark Teixeira would tremendously shore up the offense but still leave the team in search of a lot of pitching. The team is definitely on the right track, but 2009 is not likely to be a year of much progress in the standings. The division is just too good and the promising pitching at least a year away.