Josh Bell

O's SweetSpot blogger Dave Mc asks an interesting question today:

Imagine that Bell stays hot as Las Vegas summer for the next six weeks. He plays good defense and hits lefties well enough. He is pounding on the door of the majors. Would the Orioles promote him? I'm not so sure because I'm not sure where Bell would fit defensively.

Dave's reasoning is that the club would be hesitant to move Miguel Tejada--admittedly one of the O's only bright spots on offense thus far--off third base and also wouldn't want to shift Bell to DH, first base or the outfield.  It's an interesting conundrum, but one that I think makes the mistake of overvaluing a few more wins in 2010.  Personally, if the hypothetical Dave posits comes true, I don't think MacPhail will hesitate to promote Bell.  If Tejada, who was signed specifically to be a one-year stopgap, is playing well, he could be traded to a contender looking for some help at third base (perhaps Anaheim, Minnesota or Detroit) or be moved to first base, where the O's don't exactly have a plethora of quality hitters.  In any case, this would be a happy problem for several reasons.

First of all, it is far from clear that Bell can handle third base defensively.  While errors are not a perfect (or even good) measure of defensive ability, Bell certainly makes a lot of them.  There have also been questions about his atheticism, which of course leads to speculation that his ultimate position will be first base.

Mostly, though, Bell is currently half of a hitter.  He shows good pop and plate discipline from the left side (.303/.371/.514 in his minor league career and .291/.330/.524 this season), but he is Cesar Izturis with a few more walks from the right (.237/.319/.355).  That's a huge split and one that isn't likely to close in just a couple of AAA months.  Rather, it wouldn't surprise me if the Orioles have Bell give up switch hitting.  In that case, he would clearly need a few more months in Norfolk to accumulate at-bats against lefthanders.*

*Assuming there are any left-handers to hit against.  No one on the Tides has more than about a dozen at-bats against left-handers.  Are there no left-handed pitchers in the International League?  How can I sign up for some of that?

But this actually brings up another reason that MacPhail would go ahead and promote Bell to Baltimore: he could platoon with Tejada.  Bell could play third base against right-handers, with Miggy manning the hot corner against lefties.  This would likely push Luke Scott out of the DH role (which Tejada would assume against righties), but considering that he's struck out in roughly 127% of hit at-bats this season, that would actually be a good thing.

The lesson?  MacPhail will stick to the plan.  If the O's had busted out of the gate with a surprising start (like say, the Blue Jays), maybe things would be different.  Instead, the Orioles have the "luxury" of focusing only on 2011.

Jayson Werth

I was watching the Phillies and Dodgers play last night, and a classmate pointed out that the Orioles drafted Jayson Werth in the first round way back in 1997; I did not know this. Inevitably, this sparked the "Who was he traded for?" question. Some quick Googling revealed the answer: John Bale, after the 2000 season. Yes, a 27-year left-handed relief pitcher who would throw a total of 26.2 innings for the Orioles. In hindsight, it would be nice to have Werth on the club now, and this has sparked the typical "The Orioles are idiots!" comments on various blogs. But were they? In short, yes.

Werth was drafted (as a catcher) out of high school with the 22nd pick of the 1997 draft. He signed quickly and reported to the Orioles Gulf Coast League affiliate. There, he batted .295/.432/.398 over 111 plate appearances. He walked just as much as he struck out (22 times; 19.8%), showing great plate discipline for an 18-year old a few weeks removed from his high school graduation. The next year, he played 120 games for Delmarva, notching a .265/.364/.387 line in 476 plate appearances. He struck out about the same (92 times; 19.3%) but walked a little less (50 times; 10.5%), though still at a very acceptable rate. The 1999 season saw the now 20-year old Werth promoted to Frederick, where he posted a .305/.403/.394 over 279 plate appearances, cutting back on the strikeouts and upping the walks (37 times each; 13.3%). He hadn't shown much power, hitting just 12 home runs in his career to this point, but his knowledge of the strike zone was obviously well-developed. The Orioles, perhaps a bit prematurely, promoted him to Bowie where Werth showed off the same skill set: .273/.364/.355 in 144 plate appearances with 17 walks (11.8%) and 26 strikeouts (18.1%).

After that 1999 season, Werth garned some acclaim as a top-prospect; he was named the #52 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Plate discipline is a valuable skill, and the potential for Werth to be an offensive-minded catcher rightly made him a young player with lots of upside. Werth split the 2000 season between Bowie and Frederick (I can't find the dates he spent with each club), where he produced virtually identical numbers to his 1999 season: a combined .240/.358/.362 in 435 plate appearances with 64 walks (14.7%) and 65 strikeouts (14.9%). He was again named a top prospect by Baseball America (#48), but the Orioles were apparently unimpressed, perhaps in part because they knew Werth would not stick at catcher. Despite fielding a team that went 74-88 in 2000, the club chose to give up on its recent first round pick, deciding that what it really needed was a left-handed reliever who walked 3.65 batters per nine. Shockingly, this type of decision making led to a 63-98 record in 2001.

As if on cue, Werth's power began to develop in 2001. He hit 20 home runs in the Blue Jays minor league system, matching his career total, but he did need to move off catcher, shifting to play some first base in 2001 and the outfield by 2002. He spent the 2002 and 2003 seasons bouncing around the Toronto system, accumulating 104 Major League plate appearances before being traded to the Dodgers for reliever Jason Frasor. In Los Angeles, he showed significant potential as half of a valuable platoon (.290/.377/.690 vs LHP) in 2004, but he struggled in 2005 and then missed the 2006 season due to injury. After being granted free agency following the 2006 season, he caught on with Philadelphia and has been an excellent player for the past three seasons: .276/.376/.494, gaining more playing time with each successive season.

While the Orioles probably wouldn't have been the beneficiary of Werth's late-blossoming, their initial decision to trade him was still indefensible. Aside from the abhorent focus on batting average and not on-base abilities, teams that are rebuilding--as the Orioles were, or at least should have been, doing in 2000--should never value short-term roster construction over long-term potential. 21-year old prospects that have reached AA and exhibited impressive plate discipline are real prospects, even if they haven't yet developed the expected power; left-handed middle relievers are a dime a dozen. Fortunately, the Orioles have changed management and the new GM seems to understand this very concept. After all, he turned George Sherrill into Josh Bell.
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When can the Orioles compete?

Childs Walker today, writing for the Toy Department, makes the claim that the Orioles "have to think about what would be best in 2011-2013, not what's best now." I think he has the concept right, but the timeline wrong. As I wrote in the comments:

I agree that the pitching would have to develop quickly, but I disagree that this is highly unlikely (at least in terms of the relative likeliness of any pitching developing). Bergesen is here, and Hernandez probably isn't far behind. Matusz is probably on the Wieters timeline, but he was regarded last summer as someone who should reach the big leagues quickly (as in potentially in 2009). Tillman is in AAA, and while he still has a ways to go, he's not exactly far off. Arrieta is off to a solid start in Bowie, and so is Brandon Erbe. Other than Matusz, all of these guys have had success in full season leagues, and all have reached the upper levels of the system. Is 2010 a dream? Sure. But is it unrealistic to expect that next year's rotation will be filled with four of those guys listed above? Definitely not. And when that's the case, the window for contention is open.

Now, we all know about the difficulty in developing pitching. There will be bumps and bruises and Tommy Johns along the way, which is part of why I omitted Troy Patton completely. But think about that list: Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brian Matusz and Troy Patton. Those are seven arms about whom Orioles fans have legitimate reasons to expect valuable Major League contributions. Will all of them reach their potential? Highly unlikely. But could a few of them be ready for Baltimore in 2010? I don't see why not. And that's why I'm willing to define the Orioles window for contention as beginning in 2010.

Walker's post begins with a discussion about the fate of Nolan Reimold. Here are The Nest, I'm a big fan of Nolan Reimold. He's a potential power bat, but also someone who plays a position (leftfield) at which the Orioles have a surplus of serviceable players (Pie, Scott, Freel, Montanez). I have absolutely no problem with the Orioles allowing Felix Pie to play everyday. No, he hasn't done much so far (.212/.276/.316 so far in 329 career plate appearances), but Brian Roberts, over 441 plate appearances in his age 23 and 24 seasons, hit .253/.284/.341 and .227/.308/.297 and that seemed to work out OK. Pie is a talented athlete, and when you consider his minor league track record, he deserves a shot to prove himself in the Majors. Unfortunately, so does Nolan Reimold. What to do?

One solution would be to allow Reimold to play every day in Norfolk and promote if and when there is an injury to Pie, Huff or Scott. I believe that it is far better if he gets four or five plate appearances per game in Norfolk than if he plays once or twice a week in Baltimore. Could Reimold play a bit of first base? Now would be a good time to find out. Then, he could provide the right-handed part of a platoon among LF, 1B and DH. Regardless, if he continues to hit in Norfolk, he's going to force the Orioles hand at some point. Scott is not part of the long-term plans for this club, and he could be moved for a useful part to free up at-bats. Having too many players for too few positions is something very new for the Orioles, and it's not a bad problem to have.
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Little Big League

Last night, the first of a bevy of talented young pitchers, Brad Bergesen, impressed Oriole fans in his Major League debut. I was tremendously excited to get my first glimpse of the future, and even kept a running diary of his first start. Since Bergesen was so successful, the conversation has naturally turned to when we'll get to see Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and other young pitchers. After all, it's not like the guys currently in the rotation are really performing adequately. Besides, what harm could come in at least getting the fans excited, right? Peter Schmuck:

Everybody, me included, wants to see these kids as soon as it makes sense for both them and the team, but there is plenty to lose if it doesn't [work out]. There are all kinds of examples of top pitching prospects who came up too soon and had either
their arms or their psyches damaged before they could reach their full potential.

We all know 2009 is a bridge season. The hopelessness of the last decade is gone, but the team hasn't quite fully emerged from the Tunnel of Darkness to the sunny lands of Contender Meadows. There is still work to be done, and just because Brad Bergesen met expecations doesn't mean we should throw The Plan out the window. Remember, we suspected all along that Bergesen was ready and that he would be in the Baltimore rotation in short order. In other words, things are going according to The Plan, not ahead of it.

I fully subscribe to the idea that the Orioles actually have better pitchers--not just more talented ones, actually better ones--in the minor leagues than in the Major Leagues, but that does not mean they should all be starting in Baltimore every five days. Young pitchers are fragile beings, especially when rushed--just look at Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen. Allowing them to develop in the minors, where it is much easier to control pitch counts, workloads, and definitions of success can be just as valuable as experience against Major League hitters. Is there a learning curve associated with the jump from the minors to the Majors? Absolutely. But making sure these guys are ready to tackle that learning curve is MacPhail's job one right now. If he deems them ready in June or July, that's perfectly fine. But just because we see the 2009 Major League season slipping away and Brad Bergesen made an excellent debut, does not mean the careful planning should be thrown out the window. It just means everything is pretty much as we expected it to be two months ago.
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Fast Track to Success

As you're well aware, I've downed the Kool-Aid and am all aboard the Andy MacPhail train. This weekend, I found more evidence to my liking:

A year ago, when the Orioles began pondering a contract extension for second baseman Brian Roberts, they relied on number-crunching and statistical analysis of an advanced nature to help set fair expectations for his performance over the life of the deal.

That endeavor largely had to do with how offensive players of his type tend to age, a case study that used seven decades of baseball history as its backdrop and systematically eliminated some ill-suited matches.

Hey, that sounds fancy! And much like something I advocate myself.

In related news, Peter Schmuck reported in hiis Tuesday column that the Orioles are not going to rush their top pitching prospects. He compares the situation to the Ravens' handling of Joe Flacco, but the more apt comparison is the sad story of Hayden Penn.
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

A Slice of Pie

Felix Pie, that is. News broke this afternoon that the Orioles and Cubs have agreed to a deal that will send Garrett Olson and minor-leaguer Henry Williamson to the Cubs and Felix Pie to Baltimore. Pie has long been a Cubs top-prospect--and subject of Orioles/Cubs trade rumors--but he could never seem to force his way into the lineup on an everyday basis for Chicago as it contended in the NL Central. Olson has been a frustrating pitcher the past two seasons, succeeding on the basis of command, and certainly not raw stuff, in the minors but never having much success in Baltimore. A change of scenery could do him well, especially since it gets him out of the AL East and into the weaker National League.

The addition of the lefthanded hitting Pie, while on the surface a bit curious, is exactly the type of move the Orioles should be making. Sure, the Orioles are set in center and right field and had Luke Scott and maybe even Nolan Reimold to play left, but for a rebuilding team like the Orioles, you choose young talent over old stopgaps at every opportunity. What can a full season of playing time do for Pie's development? Let's hope it turns out similarly to the Adam Jones experiment from 2008.

Speaking of Adam Jones, an outfield of Pie, Jones and Nick Markakis, plus a middle infield of Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis, should tremendously help the development of the pitching staff. Run prevention comes in two flavors, pitching and defense, and while the Orioles may not have much of the former, they should do very well with the latter. Depending on how prospects like Radhames Liz, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, et al. develop, the first half of that equation could look very different come September.

So what are the Orioles looking at in terms of a lineup for 2009?

2B - Brian Roberts (S)
3B - Melvin Mora (R)
RF - Nick Markakis (L)
1B - Aubrey Huff (L)
CA - Matt Wieters (S)
DH - Luke Scott (L)
CF - Adam Jones (R)
LF - Felix Pie (L)
SS - Cesar Izturis (S)

Bench - Ryan Freel, Greg Zaun, Chris Gomez

Others: Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, Oscar Salazar, Scott Moore

That lineup definitely tilts to the left; if the Orioles were closer to contention, they would ideally find a right-handed hitting first baseman, shift Huff to designated hitter and Scott to a back-up role. I suspect that Nolan Reimold will be donning a first baseman's mitt quite a bit this spring.

Still, MacPhail has done an admirable job building this team for 2009 as it waits for young pitching to develop for the future. The lineup above, especially if Reimold earns a slot, has a nice mix of long-term solutions (Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Pie) and veteran fill-ins (Roberts, Mora, Scott, Huff, Izturis), plus it should play very good defense. With Roberts, Mora and Huff, all up for free agency after 2009, there are still lots of holes to fill for the long-term, but this does appear to be a team headed in the right direction.

MacFailure?

Peter Schmuck took the gloves off today:

Frankly, and I know I'm going to offend some of you, if you're calling him
McFail after 18 months, then you deserve an organization that starts a new
five-year plan every two years under pressure from its fans.

Personally, I couldn't agree more. Orioles fans have complained for a decade that the team didn't use The Oriole Way to rebuild, and now that, belatedly, the organization has committed to rebuilding, those same fans are impatient and complain every time a major free agent signs somewhere else. This organization IS on the right track, DOES have lots of talent that will be ready in a short while and WILL contend again in the near future. If you can't see that, then you're blind.

Pinstripes are Slimming

Maybe Mark Teixeira just likes the way he looks in pinstripes and navy blue better than he does in orange and black.

Peter Schmuck sums up the reaction from much of the fanbase, and puts it all in perspective:

That level of frustration is understandable at a time like this, but if
you're a baseball fan, you're not going to stop being a baseball fan because
Boras acted like Boras, the Yankees acted like the Yankees and the Orioles acted
like the Orioles. I expect you to take a couple of days to cool off and then be
back here first thing Friday morning.

I understand and share the frustration with rebuilding. Since previous administrations were so inept, Orioles fans have been given a three-year time horizon for more than a decade and have nothing (well, except a few Jay Gibbons, Rodrigo Lopez, Daniel Cabrera and Luis Matos memories) to show for it. This time it really is different, though. Joe Sheehan wrote last week, and I agree, that Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters are the types of players that form the core of a championship club. He also wrote that the Orioles should sign Teixeira, but the point remains: the Orioles actually have talent. Couple those guys with all the young pitching on the way (with the obvious caveat about the difficulty of developing young pitching), and this legitimately is a team that can compete in the very near future. Not in 2009, but maybe we can dream a little in 2010.

Clearly, as a baseball player, Teixeira would have been a perfect fit for the Orioles, a switch-hitting slugger to hit in the middle of the lineup and play excellent defense at first base. Economically, it's not quite as clear he was a great fit. In 2008, the Orioles had a team payroll of $67 million. In 2007, that number was $93 million. Assuming that the Orioles were willing to go back to or a little above 2007 levels, commiting roughly 23% of your payroll to one player is typically not a formula for success. Couple that with the uncertainty surrounding today's economy, and pulling out of the bidding may turn out to be a very wise decision.

So how do the Orioles move forward? Very clearly, they need to develop some of that young pitching in the minor leagues. Finding five (heck, two) competent starters is priority 1A, B, C and D. After that, they need long-term solutions for the middle infield, first base, third base (OK, the whole infield) and left field. Is Brian Roberts here for the long-term? Can the club live with a great-field, no-hit shortstop? What can Nolan Reimold provide in left? Can Aubrey Huff return some value? Where is the middle-of-the-lineup power production going to come from? Not all of those questions can be answered in 2009, but not all of them need to be; complementary players can fill many of those roles, and MacPhail has proven adept at returning value in trades. It may not feel this way while watching Sportscenter this morning, but the future is bright.

Mark Teixeira Capable of Saving World

or so one might think from the intrigue generated by his contract negotiations this offseason. Peter Schmuck gives the Baltimore-centric rundown at The Sun:

Here it is in a nutshell: If the Orioles defy the odds and win the Teixeira derby, then maybe the team really has changed direction under MacPhail and maybe it's time to start coming back to the ballpark after a decade of declining attendance. If the Orioles get outbid - no matter how big the winning bid turns out to be - then it's the same old, same old. The Orioles weren't really serious and stayed on the fringe of the bidding only for public relations purposes.

As a fan, I'd like nothing more than to see Teixeira manning first base and taking aim at the Warehouse during batting practice. As an objective observer, I have very real concerns over the length and dollar value of the contract it will take to lure Teixeira back to the Inner Harbor. As a fan and an objective observer, I think it's best not to get tooooo worked up over these negotiations. A free agent situation with Scott Boras involved tends to take on a life of its own, and that doesn't typically work to the benefit of the club. I believe that Andy MacPhail has played these negotiations relatively well so far, declining to negotiate through the media and refusing to bid against himself. He knows that the contract offer the O's have on the table is competitive and I suspect that he believes Teixeira won't be signing anywhere without giving MacPhail one last phone call. All evidence from the past 18 months points to MacPhail being an extremely competent general manager, and the fan and objective observer inside of me are satisfied with the direction he's taking the organization, regardless of the outcome of the Teixeira bidding.

Cleaning Out the Links

Running down some links still in my RSS reader from the past few days...

• Keith Law breaks down Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
• Peter Gammons reports the Orioles spent the 9th most on draft bonuses.
• The Baltimore Sun has even more on the signing bonuses MacPhail has given out.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus places two Orioles in the Top 50 and names another honorable mention in his Ultimate Fantasy Draft.

Law gives a very positive assessment of Tillman, though he does believe that his command (or lack of it) will keep him from being a true number one. Still, at just 20 years old and with a clean delivery, he could develop that command.

Look at the teams who are also on the top of that list from Gammons: the Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros. The Red Sox, Twins, Rays and Brewers have each reaped significant benefits from spending in the draft, and the Rangers Royals, and Pirates each have relatively new front offices that have placed a priority on rebuilding through the farm system. The Giants and Astros have poor records signing players and developing talent. Aside from those two, that's a great list on the which the Orioles appear, and perhaps the best evidence yet that MacPhail has truly ushered in a new Orioles era.

It's also a great development that the Orioles have shown a willingness to pick the player they deem to be the best talent and not just the player they can sign for a reasonable bonus. Matt Wieters was clearly the best of his draft class, and while the debate will certainly linger over whether the Orioles made the right pick with Matusz over Smoak, he was the first player on their draft board.

Finally, to see Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (another MacPhail acquisition) rated so highly is quite encouraging. But most exciting is that Matt Wieters is the most promising prospect in the minors.

More on the Bradford Deal

Baseball Prospectus runs down the benefits of the deal. The key takeaway:

As a one-for-one replacement on the roster for Bradford, this could be a
right-now upgrade, and whoever Mr. TBNL turns out to be will make it better
still, since that's basically a free body for buying back the roster time to
look at Cherry instead of employing the Moneyball celeb.

They ignore the $4.0 million in savings (the difference in cost between employing Cherry and Bradford), but for a team that is still looking to sign its number one pick and perhaps make a run at a very big-money free agent this offseason, that makes the deal even more of a postive from the Orioles perspective.

It's nice to have a GM that understands how to build a competitive organization; MacPhail and his staff realized that paying Bradford large sums of money to perform a job that Cherry could do for much smaller sums of money was not a wise decision. The trade emphasizes the importance of minor league depth, especially on the mound for largely interchangeable bullpen arms, and the folly of paying "proven veterans" lots of money on multi-year contracts to pitch limited innings out of the bullpen. If a deal involving a 33-year old middle reliever and a player to be named later can be deemed exciting, this one fits the definition for Orioles fans since it shows the people in charge finally know what they're doing.

Ramon Hernandez

Apparently, Ramon Hernandez is under contract with the Orioles for the 2009 season since he signed a four year deal (including a 2010 option!) prior to the 2006 season (back when they were already paying Javy Lopez $7 million a season to be their catcher). Somehow, I missed that this was a four-year deal and was under the assumption that this would be the final season we were subjected to his .308 on-base percentage. In this case, the Orioles should do everything possible to get out of his contract for next year and make Matt Wieters the starter behind the plate. Unfortunately, I bet there is no team willing to pay him $8 million plus the buyout on the option. But that doesn't mean Wieters shouldn't still be the starter next year. If the Orioles can't unload Hernandez, he's welcome to stick around as the back-up, but continuing to play him above Wieters is pointless for a team trying to rebuild around young players.

Between Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez, Jay Gibbons, and Jay Payton, the Orioles sure have spent a lot of money on mediocre players in recent years.

Trade Deadline Approaches

Now that I'm back from vacation, I'm caught up at work and my Google Reader has been restored to a manageable situation, I can finally get back into posting my thoughts on the Orioles. Since today is July 25, the trade deadline is less than a week away. The Orioles are 48-53, have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, and since entering June 29 three games above .500, are just 7-15 over their past 22 games. This should force a reality check on the fan base and allow the front office to continue with the plan to rebuild this team into a legitimate contender.

In recent weeks, several different forums have requested fan input on what the Orioles should do for the remainder of the year. Many answers were predictably trade our crappy players for prospects, sign Nick Markakis to a long-term deal, sign (or trade) Brian Roberts, etc. Now that we're less than a week away, I'm ready to explore the question in depth. What should the Orioles (realistically) do from now until their final game on September 28?

The first step is to realistically assess whether or not the 2009 team can compete in a division that includes the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. Unlike, say, the Giants, who have the luxury of rebuilding in a division where 81 wins could very well mean the playoffs, the Orioles are faced with the reality of needing 93 or more victories for a playoff berth. Since 1996, the first full season after the strike, only the 1996 Yankees (with 92) and 2000 Yankees (with 87) have won the division with fewer than 95 wins. In that same time span, the 1996 Orioles won the wild card with 88 wins, and in subsequent years it took 96, 92, 94, 91, 102, 99, 95, 98, 95, 95 and 94 wins to win the AL wild card. The 2008 Orioles currently have the run differential of a 49-52 team, and coolstandings.com predicts the team to finish at 76-86; Baseball Prospectus, using their PECOTA adjusted standings, pegs the Orioles for 74.4 wins. The Orioles will need to win 17 to 19 games more in 2009 than in 2008 to have a shot at the playoffs, assuming that they actually finish the season like the predictions and not like previous seasons. Regardless, this is a team that will need to make significant advances to be competitive.

Without getting too bogged down in a position-by-position analysis, where could the Orioles expect to improve next season? The most obvious answer is catcher: Matt Wieters (who is currently batting .345/.427/.560 with four home runs in 86 at-bats at Bowie) will be the starting catcher next season, and all indications are that he is capable of producing at the Major League level in a big way. He'll be a significant upgrade from Ramon Hernandez and his .244/.291./409 line. Otherwise, the Orioles have five offensive players worth keeping around, on a purely production based basis: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott. The production that Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora and whoever is playing shortstop offer are very replaceable. Millar will be a free agent at the end of the season, and I sincerely doubt the club brings him back, at least in a role that will offer significant playing time. Unfortunately, Melvin Mora is set to make $9 million next season ($8 million base salary plus $1 million buyout on 2010 option), so any upgrade at third base involves benching a highly paid player, something teams are traditionally loathe to do despite the sunk cost of the investment.

One popular option to upgrade the offense next season is to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason. As a native Marylander and a career .285/.386/.501 hitter, he has long been the object of Oriole fan desires. Unfortunately, his pricetag may be upwards of $150 million for a six-year contract that would take him through his age 35 season, plus the draft pick forfeited by his signing. While Teixeira would certainly be attractive in an Orioles jersey and I'm not de facto opposed to his signing, the club is also likely to receive better value for that $150 million by spreading it over several other needs.

The Orioles most pressing need is a shortstop; they have not had a Major League quality player on the roster all season, and there are no prospects in the system currently. Somehow, the team will need to acquire someone for the position for next season. Rafael Furcal is an intriguing free agent name, but his age (30) and recent injury history suggests extreme caution, and I doubt he's a risk the front office would be willing to take. Orlando Cabrera is probably the next best available, but he's 33 and hitting .265/.325/.354 for the White Sox. My guess is that the Orioles bring in a veteran who can play defense but offers almost no offensive contribution to serve as stopgap for 2009, and that MacPhail's top priority is identifying a prospect in another organization that can be added via trade, much like Adam Jones became this past offseason's target. The lack of organizational depth up the middle is really an Achilles heel because it complicates efforts to trade Brian Roberts, who is the O's most marketable trade chip. If Roberts is traded for a shortstop, the club would then face the same dilemma at second base.

One possible solution would be to target a leftfielder and allow said new leftfielder, Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff to split time between first base, designated hitter and left field. Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn are all names that will be mentioned this offseason, but each comes with a hefty price tag and is not without warts of their own. Plus, Nolan Reimold is batting .288/.360/.497 with 17 home runs in 382 at-bats at Bowie, and he likely deserves every chance to win a roster spot, either through a September call-up or in spring training.

In examining the offense, replacing Kevin Millar with Nolan Reimold and Ramon Hernandez with Matt Wieters would provide upgrades and save money. That could free up the Orioles to trade Luke Scott or Aubrey Huff, if a suitor could be found, and perhaps still make a run at a free agent acquisition like Mark Teixeira. If the O's could somehow acquire a Major League shortstop, they could potentially field an offense that is much better than even this year's surprising group.

So while scoring runs may not be a major source of concern going into next season, preventing them likely will be. Jeremy Guthrie is the staff ace, but that's simply by default; he's a valuable starter, but is certainly not the frontline starter the team would like to have anchor the rotation. Daniel Cabrera continues to frustrate, though at least he can eat up some innings. Radhames Liz and Garret Olson are suffering lots of growing pains, Brian Burres is not a long-term answer for any pitching staff, and Adam Loewen is going to give hitting a try since he could never stay healthy as a pitcher. As for the minor leagues, the rotation in Norfolk is filled with non-prospects and the perpetually frustrating Hayden Penn, who is 4-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. There is much more excitement about the rotation in Bowie, however. Twenty-year old Chris Tillman is 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 92.2 IP, though with a needs-improvement 48 walks. Twenty-four year old Jason Berken is 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA, 91 strikeouts and 27 walks in 110.1 IP. Twenty-three year old David Hernandez 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA, 129 strikeouts and 55 walks in 109.1 IP. Those three arms would seem to be legitimate prospects, and a fourth, Bradley Bergensen (12-3, 2.91 ERA, 55 K, 20 BB, 108.1 IP) is also producing solid results, though with red flags because of a low strikeout rate. If Matt Albers and Troy Patton can recover from their injuries, the Orioles will have a number of arms to compete for the rotation. While caution must always be exercised when projecting contributions from young pitchers, it is very possible that pitching help is on the way, if not in 2009 than in 2010.

In the bullpen, the best possible strategy has seemed to be accumulate quality arms as cheaply as possible and hope seven of them can form a well-balanced bullpen. Chris Ray will be back next year, and it would be great if Dennis Sarfate could take a step forward with his control. Otherwise, hopefully the current collection in the majors and minors will produce a few guys capable of contributing next year.

So where does this leave the team for the rest of 2008? Efforts should be made to trade Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar and Ramon Hernandez. While Huff is a solid hitter, he's also expensive and could provide significant value to a team in search of a lefthanded bat for the stretch run. He is under contract for next season, and if the Orioles were willing to eat a significant amount of money, he could bring back some value in return. Millar has a reputation as a great clubhouse leader, and perhaps a contender would find that trait useful in a right-handed bat off the bench. He has minimal value to the Orioles in the short-term and his long-run value is nil. Using the see what sticks bullpen theory, I would try and acquire a bullpen arm with some upside for him. Hernandez holds no long-term value to the Orioles and is a free agent at the end of the season. I do not know if he will bring a draft-pick when he leaves in the offseason, but if he will not, the Orioles would do well to trade him now; I doubt they'll find any takers, however.

Those are easy decisions; more difficult are what to do with the more marketable players, Brian Roberts and George Sherrill. Sherrill would be desirable for a contender; teams nearly always need more help in the bullpen. However, there seems to be a plethora of quality lefthanders available on the trade market this year, driving down the price MacPhail could hope to extract from a trade partner. MacPhail may well decide that the prospects that could be had in return for Sherrill, who is still under team control until 2011, are not worth the cost of losing more games this season and needing to find another lefthander in the bullpen for next season.

Brian Roberts is in a similar situation, though under contract through the end of the 2009 season. No team that is out of the playoff race would be likely to deal for Roberts during the season; that leaves the contenders as possible trade partners. Let's look at each, first in the NL:

NY Mets - Just signed Luis Castillo to a three-year contract
Phillies - some guy named Chase Utley
Marlins - Dan Uggla
Cubs - this offseason's rumored Brian Roberts destination, they could never offer enough to entice MacPhail; have since dealt nearly all the players rumored to be involved a potential trade
Brewers - Rickie Weeks and Ray Durham
Cardinals - could use a second baseman, but have never been mentioned as a possible destination
Diamondbacks - Orlando Hudson
Dodgers - Jeff Kent, though Roberts would be an upgrade

Red Sox - Dustin Pedroia
Yankees - Robinson Cano
Rays - Akinori Iwamura
White Sox - rumored to be interested in Roberts, though talks haven't progressed very quickly
Twins - Alexi Casilla
Tigers - Placido Polanco
Angels - Howie Kendrick

Only three teams might realistically be interested in Roberts: the Cubs, White Sox and Cardinals. One tried, failed and moved on, one has apparently contacted MacPhail recently but failed to impress with their offer, and the other seems to be much more focused on acquiring bullpen help. Thus, any Roberts trade is very unlikely. But if Roberts was a hot commodity, should the Orioles trade him? As a rebuilding team, MacPhail should be listening to nearly any offer a team brings; no one is untouchable, but Roberts is very popular with the fans and a rare commodity: a lead-off hitter and very good offensive performer at a premium defensive position. However, he is 30 years old and only under contract for one more season. He has expressed frustration in the past with the Orioles inability to compete; he may decide that he'd much rather sign with another organization than re-up with the Orioles, even for more money. Or, his asking price could exceed what the Orioles are willing to pay and the club will receive only draft picks in return. The team is already in dire need of one middle infielder; trading Roberts would mean they'd need two. Still, as we've established above, they are very unlikely to compete in 2009, and Roberts' status as an Oriole for 2010 and beyond is iffy, at best. If the right deal comes along, the Orioles should trade Brian Roberts.

Since there is little than can be done in the next week to upgrade this team for next year and beyond between now and the trade deadline, any improvement will be of the much less exciting variety. We'll take a look at those projects and decisions next.

Rick Maese Gets It

Joe Morgan does not. While Morgan is right that the minor leagues are there to help the big league team win, he seems to ignore the fact that the Orioles have a time horizon beyond September 30, 2008. I'm glad we have Andy MacPhail running the team, and not Joe Morgan.

Perhaps the most astute observation Maese makes is that the Orioles have finally figured out that you can't contend with quick fixes and interim patches:

What's some what refreshing about Morgan's comments is that finally this season such lunacy isn't validated by the Orioles' front office. In years past, the Orioles did exactly what Morgan prescribed. They fooled themselves into believing they were on the verge of being relevant. Thankfully, for the first time in a decade, Morgan might subscribe to the absurdity, but the Orioles do not.

The Orioles have finally begun the long, painful process of rebuilding; the last decade was just long and painful with no rebuilding. While this year's team has enjoyed some surprising success at the big league level, let's not lose sight of the fact that a .500 record in 2008 won't be nearly as sweet as a playoff bid in 2010 or 2011. Let the rebuilding continue.

Road Trippin'

The Orioles have an off day today as they travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a three game set. Then it's on to Boston for three more before the All Star break. I can't help but feel that this week is going to be exceptionally important for the O's.

On the morning of June 27, the Orioles were coming off a tough road swing through Milwaukee and Chicago where they split six games, winning once against the Brewers and twice against the Cubs. Since then, however, the Orioles have dropped two out of three to the lowly Nationals, split a four game set with the Royals and fallen twice more to the Rangers. But more important than their 4-6 mark in the last 10 games is what has happened to the pitching staff:

• George Sherrill has been quite shaky; in his last four outings, he has allowed a game winning home run against the Nationals, a game tying homer against the Royals, two inherited runners to score before closing out a win over the Royals, and two hits, two walks and two inherited runners to score against the Rangers.
• Adam Loewen is likely headed to the DL again, and despite my bullish sentiments from last week, the Orioles may very well never get anything of value out of Loewen; he just cannot stay healthy.
• Jamie Walker hit the DL on June 30.
• Matt Albers hit the DL on June 26.

For a team that relies on Garrett Olson (5.1 innings per start), Radhames Liz (4.2 innings per start) and Brian Burres (5.2 innings per start) for 60% of its starting rotation, losing three quality bullpen arms is a huge blow. All of a sudden, what was once a strength--the bullpen--is a significant question mark. Luminaries such as Fernando Cabrera (career 4.82 ERA), Lance Cormier (career 5.57 ERA) and Greg Aquino (career 5.35 ERA) will be called upon to pitch big innings ahead of Jim Johnson (just 25 strikeouts in 48.0 IP, 19 walks, yet to allow a home run), Dennis Sarfate (43 strikeouts in 39.2 IP, but an incredible 34 walks), Chad Bradford (just 11 strikeouts in 32.1 IP) and Sherrill (22 walks and 5 home runs allowed in 38.2 IP).

Looking at that list, it is highly unlikely the Orioles bullpen will show the same amount of success in the second half of the season that it did in the first. Sooner or later, someone is going to hit a home run off Johnson, the walks are going to cost Sarfate, and Bradford will be undone by his inability to get strikeouts. As we've seen with Sherrill in the past week, relievers who allow a significant number of baserunners walk a fine line between "making things interesting" and costing the club wins.

Between the starting pitching and the relief pitching, the Orioles seem poised to give up quite a few runs for the remainder of the season. Still, they have a team ERA of 4.42 (league ERA 4.16) and at 44-43, they have performed right in line with their run differential (+1), showing that their offense has been above average at scoring runs so far (4.7 runs/game). Considering that they have gotten almost zero production from short stop, third base, and catcher and barely any production from first base, how have they done so? For starters, the team has been signficantly better with runners in scoring position: .277/.365/.431 with RISP vs. .261/.328/.426 in all situations. There is likely to be some regression to the mean in the second half. On the plus side, Adam Jones is improving with nearly every at-bat, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis should have been All-Stars, and Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff, if not outstanding players, are at least professional hitters. Fewer at-bats for Jay Payton, improved production from Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora, and a more optimal lineup mean that scoring fewer runs isn't necessarily a given.

Still, the O's face six tough games this week, are given a three day reprieve, and then play 14 games in 14 days against Detroit (20-8 since June 7, though most of that damage came against the National League), Toronto and their dangerous pitching, the first-place Anaheim Angels and the arch-rival Yankees. At that point, the Orioles have an off day on July 31, the non-waiver trading deadline. Will the club remain intact? As the O's face a difficult month ahead, short on pitching and long on quality opponents, they'll face many tough decisions: what to do about Brian Roberts? Aubrey Huff? George Sherrill? Is this team capable of making a run at .500? It's been a fun three months, but the I'm afraid that things are about to get a whole lot more difficult in the four weeks ahead.

Better than Expected

There's lots in the Baltimore Sun today about the 2008 Orioles being better than expected. Childs Walker notes that the fans enjoy this year's team, and Peter Schmuck says Andy MacPhail is in quandry about how to approach this year's trading deadline. The two articles both touch on a common theme: in the context of MacPhail's long-term rebuilding plans, how should the Orioles approach the rest of season?

First of all, Walker is right; this year's team is fun to watch. The players seem to genuinely enjoy playing together, and what's not to like about a team with 24 comeback wins and five walk-off victories? In a season where many (including me) predicted the Orioles would lose 100 games for just the third time in the franchise's Baltimore history, a 41-38 record is to be celebrated. Nick Markakis, somehow still just 24, is establishing himself as an All-Star rightfielder, Brian Roberts has a chance to break the record for most doubles by a second baseman, George Sherrill has been excellent as closer and wears a funny hat, Luke Scott is making the most of his opportunity to play everyday, Adam Jones, 22, has shown flashes of his incredible talent, Aubrey Huff is hitting like it's 2004, and Jeremy Guthrie is proving that last year's first half was no fluke.

Still, this team has very real shortcomings. The shortstop woes have been well chronicled, but third base has been every bit a bad offensively. Melvin Mora is ranked 30th out of 33 third basemen with at least 100 plate appearances in VORP. He has 311 plate appearances, 10.2% of the Orioles' total, and has a .298 OBP and .397 SLG. And he frequently bats third in the Orioles lineup (which is a subject that deserves its own post). Kevin Millar, whose unquantifiable "clubhouse presence" may account for much of the apparent never-say-die attitude, is a nice complementary player, but first base should be the easiest place for the Orioles to find more offense going forward. Adam Jones is showing the potential to be a very good centerfielder, but he's very much learning on the job. Ramon Hernandez has been a major disappointment at catcher, performing below the 25th percentile of his PECOTA projection; at last at catcher, help is on the way.

Suppose that those flaws aren't fatal and the Orioles really can continue to win with three positions filled by players below replacement level (catcher, third base and shortstop) and two more significantly below league average (first base and center field). At this point, the schedule gets significantly more difficult. After feasting on the NL for two weeks, the O's play host this week to the suddenly surging Royals (12-4 over their last 16 games) and Rangers (41-41). After that, it's off to Toronto and Boston before the All-Star break. Then, the Orioles play 14 games in 14 days against Detroit, Toronto, the Angels, and the Yankees. As Kevin Millar said in Peter Schmuck's column, "We're a 12-2 streak away from being in the thick of everything." No offense, Mr. Millar, but I don't see a 12-2 streak on the horizon with that July schedule. Complicating matters is that, at best, the Orioles are the fourth best team in their own division, behind Boston, Tampa Bay and New York. If the Blue Jays can find some offense to go with their deep pitching and defense, they might be better than the O's, too.

Add it all up, and the correct path for Andy MacPhail this trade deadline is to stay the course in the long-term rebuilding plan. For the last decade, management has consistently overrated how close the Orioles are to legitimate contention, and in doing so continuously pushed contending further into the future. MacPhail has correctly deduced that there is no quick fix and acted accordingly. The Bedard and Tejada trades have paid immediate dividends while setting up significant future earnings potential, and the past few drafts have brought high-ceiling prospects to a once-barren farm system.

Schmuck contends that "the fans have waited a long time for a team they could embrace like this one, and there's no guarantee they'll get another such opportunity anytime soon, even if MacPhail makes a couple more big scores." I disagree. We the fans have been waiting a long time for a team that can win 95 games and bring October baseball back to Baltimore, not for a team that makes a feel good run at .500 baseball. Without upgrades at shortstop, third base, first base and catcher, we'll keep waiting, and the best way to upgrade those positions is likely to be dealing valuable short-term commodities like Brian Roberts, George Sherrill, Aubrey Huff or Kevin Millar for high impact prospects that can help the club when it's nucleus of Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones is ready to lead the team to the playoffs. Would I like to see Brian Roberts as a part of any Orioles contender? Absolutely. It's just not likely that he'll be a part of such a team.