Miguel Tejada: Clutch Hitter?

Over at the Orioles Insider blog today, a post from Dan Connolly appears with the headline "No question, Miggi is clutch".  Certainly, Tejada's two run, bases loaded single last night was a clutch hit.  But is Miguel Tejada clutch?  Let's look at some numbers.  Remember, tOPS+ is a statistic that adjusts a particular split stat to compare it to a player's career or season total.


Tejada, Career: .289/.341/.469
Tejada, Career, RISP: .296/.354/.475, 105 tOPS+

So Tejada performs about 5% better than his career norm with runners in scoring position, mostly thanks to a better on-base percentage.  Sounds clutch, right?  Not so fast.  How do ALL batters perform with runners in scoring position?

League Average, 2010: .256/.330/.403
League Average, 2010, RISP: .254/.348/.391, 102 tOPS+

So ALL batters improve by about 2% with runners in scoring position in 2010 (and this what happens nearly every season), mainly because pitchers throw from the stretch (there are probably effects from defensive positioning as well).  Is Tejada's difference significant?  Maybe (I don't have the time this morning to make sure I'm doing the math correctly).

Here is the link to his "Clutch" table at baseball-reference.com.  Looks to me like he performs in the clutch almost identically to the way we'd expect any hitter of his caliber.

Now, Tejada DOES have much better numbers in "High Leverage" situations (119 tOPS+), so I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the claim that Tejada have some sort of ability to raise his game in the clutch.  But I DO think the burden is on those who claim Tejada has superior clutch skills to cite more than his batting average with RISP in 2010 and tell an anecdote about how Tejada wants to be at the plate with the game on the line.

More on Miggy

Peter Schmuck loves it.

The veterans on this team want a chance to compete, and the fact that Tejada had 199 hits last year appears to outweigh any concerns about the negative aspects of his previous incarnation as an Oriole.

Well, maybe. But he also managed just 19 walks and 14 home runs while playing in the weaker league last season. I hope people aren't expecting the same Miguel Tejada that posted a .311/.362/.501 line in his four seasons with the Orioles.

Also, there's this:

The Orioles ranked fifth in the league in batting average last year but only 11th in runs, which is an indication that they are an RBI guy or two away from being a pretty good offensive team. Tejada's run-production potential isn't what it was when he drove in 150 runs for the Orioles in 2004, but he's still a difference-maker.

Egads. The O's were 8th in OBP, and 10th in slugging percentage. They don't need a good "RBI guy", they need a guy who can get on base and hit with some pop. At this stage in his career, it is unclear if Tejada (.313/.340/.455 in 2009) is that guy, regardless of his past RBI accumulations.
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Miguel Tejada

Frankly, this is shocking. The 1-year, $6 million deal seems about right, and the type of player that Tejada is today is a good fit for the Orioles (experienced right-handed hitter that can play an infield corner), but I'm really surprised the club is bringing him back. If my feelings are any indication, the fan base was more than ready to move on. He was bad on defense, perceived to be both lazy and a malcontent, and his involvement in the Palmeiro fiasco seemed indicative of deeper clubhouse issues. Maybe this will all work out in the end, with Tejada being a model citizen while keeping the hot corner errr... hot for Josh Bell, but I can't think of very many signings that would be quite so controversial.

On a happier note, this means that the O's roster is pretty much set for the coming year and I can put the final touches on my season preview. I doubt I will get it done tonight, but should have most of it complete in the next few days.
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