David Hernandez and The Rotation

With Chris Tillman (3.43 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 1.86 BB/9) and Jake Arrieta (3.87 FIP, 7.47 K/9, 4.58 BB/9) both pitching well in Norfolk and David Hernandez (42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 1.58 WHIP - virtually identical to the numbers he posted last season) again struggling in Baltimore, speculation is understandably ripe that one of the hot young arms will soon usurp Hernandez's spot in the rotation.  Fortunately for Hernandez, he "saved" his rotation spot last night by throwing 105 pitches (59 for strikes) across 5.1 IP, allowing one hit and one run while striking out three and walking five.  Huh?  That's the performance that saved his rotation spot?

Let's do a thought experiment.  Suppose you are Andy MacPhail and you truly believe that either Arrieta or Tillman (it doesn't matter which, or if it is both) is just biding his time in Norfolk waiting for one of the five starters for the O's to pitch his way out of the rotation.  The fifth starter you selected on the basis of a very strong spring training has really struggled, and he's now 150 innings into his Major League career and has yet to show that he's more than a useful arm for the bullpen or a spot starter, an opinion held by many scouts throughout the player's minor league career.  Now, this fifth starter just had an outing remarkably similar to the ones he's had the rest of the season: he struggled to throw strikes, he gave up nearly twice as many fly balls as ground balls, and he didn't strike many batters out.  Are you going to change your opinion of him on the basis of his most recent outing?

I would like to see either Tillman or Arrieta as much as the next O's fan, and I still think that David Hernandez could have a solid career as a bullpen arm.  However, there are very good reasons for both Tillman and Arrieta to spend a bit more time in Norfolk.  Tillman has added a new pitch to his repertoire this spring, and Arrieta is clearly walking too many people.  For both, service time and arbitration eligibility could potentially be deciding factors, but I personally wouldn't worry too much about that for young pitchers (the risk of injury is too great, and current research is having a difficult time finding a reliable aging curve for pitchers; better to have Major League ready arms pitching in the Major Leagues).

One day in the coming weeks, Hernandez is likely to relinquish his rotation spot and O's fans will get to see another one of the arms of the future.  In the meantime, though, let's not kid ourselves that 5.1 mediocre innings have a meaningful impact on when that day will be.

The Bullpen

With good reason, the Orioles bullpen has been the target of much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the early going.  So imagine my surprise today when I checked the pitching splits page at baseball-reference.com and saw that Orioles relievers (4.70) have a lower ERA than do Orioles starters (4.75)!  How is this possible?  There are two big reasons:

1) Brad Bergesen.  He's made three starts, combining for 10.1 IP and a 12.19 ERA.  Strip out those three starts and the rest of the O's starters have a 3.97 ERA over 99.2 IP, which is not too shabby at all.
2) Inherited runners.  As of April 26, O's starters have passed off 16 baserunners to the bullpen.  Nine of them have scored.  The league average rate for inherited runners scored is 34% (across all situations; it is possible that O's starters have biased their inherited runners toward high run expectancy situations like second and third with no outs).  If O's relievers could acheive that league-average percentage, the starters would have been charged with 4 or 5 fewer runs, bringing their collective ERA to 4.34 or 4.42.  Control for Bergesen (who, ironically, has only had 1 of his 3 bequeathed runners score) and the top four O's starters have an ERA in the 3.60 range.

As for the more skill-dependent numbers, Orioles starters are performing better than their relief counterparts there, too:

K/BB ratio: 2.40 for O's starters, 1.85 for O's relievers
HR/9: 0.90 for O's starters, 1.17 for O's relievers

So, yes, the Orioles rotation has been much better than the bullpen, especially when you look at the numbers without Brad Bergesen.  With the offense finally scoring a few runs this weekend, the bullpen needs to start pulling its weight to get the O's a few more wins.
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More on Millwood

Baseball Prospectus offers the most upbeat take on the Millwood deal yet, and I agree.

I love the decision to add Millwood not simply because of the atmospherics—the
meme about the veteran workhorse joining a talented young rotation, etc.—or his
relative track record, but because it's exactly right in terms of adding that
guy for just a single season. Maybe this is a reflection of the past premiums
the Orioles have had to pay to get someone to choose Baltimore, but adding
Millwood for a single season at roughly $7 or 8 million (the $12 million he's
due, less the $3 million, less Ray's arbitration-boosted payday to come) is an
outstanding adaptation to a market that wasn't likely to yield his combination
of good work and reliable turn-taking at that price. For a year, the
organization can let Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, David
Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, and Jason Berken earn turns in the big-league rotation
behind Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie, perhaps phase out or deal Guthrie, and then
let Millwood walk away, leaving 2011 draft picks in his wake. It's just one more
reason why the Orioles won't be a fun matchup for the favored three atop the
division, which should make for the most interesting Orioles team to watch in
more than a decade.

Echoes my sentiments exactly.
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More on Millwood

Blogosphere: React!

MLB Fanhouse:

Adding an experienced starter makes a lot of sense for the Orioles. They've
got three talented youngsters in Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman,
but young pitchers come with innings limits and assorted other potential land
mines that keep them from throwing oodles of innings.

Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan:

Millwood at $8 [sic] million for one year is a solid pickup for the
Orioles, who get an innings guy to anchor the rotation as they bring along a
number of good young starting pitchers who will require some careful handling,
and they do so without giving up talent or committing past ’10.

Orioles GM Andy MacPhail, via Baseball Prospectus:

"We think (Millwood) is going to have a positive cascading effect on Jeremy
Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, and Jason
Berken," Orioles vice president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said. "He
should really anchor our staff."

FanGraphs:

For the Orioles, they receive a roughly average starting pitcher. As a one
year commitment, 9 million dollars isn’t egregious. It will be probably be near
his market value. With the Orioles not in a position to compete, taking on that
kind of salary doesn’t really make sense. This kind of money could be much
better spent on international signings, draft picks, or other developmental type
of projects. He will give them decent production, but is the marginal value of
his 2-3 wins above replacement really worth 9 million dollars to them? I’m not
sure.

Peter Schmuck:

Guthrie did everything he could to fill the No. 1 starter role the past two
years, but everybody knew it was too much responsibility for him, and he wilted
under the weight of it last season. Millwood will assume that role, which should
make everybody in the rotation more comfortable in their own skin. The trade
is just as important from a public relations and marketing standpoint because it
sends a signal that the Orioles are serious about improving the team for 2010.
MacPhail has to follow up with several more acquisitions over the next couple of
months, but he has made good on a key priority with plenty of time left to
concentrate on upgrading the corner infield positions and the bullpen.

In my opinion, this is a solid deal for the Orioles. Teams need roughly 1,000 innings from their starters to make it through the 162-game schedule. Guthrie and Millwood can be penciled in for roughly 60 starts and somewhere between 360 and 400 innings. Brian Matusz threw 157.2 innings a year ago, and is unlikely to be asked to go much beyond 180 IP in 2010. Ditto Chris Tillman (161.2 IP in 2009). Brad Bergesen, who reached just 134.1 IP in 2009 (after 165.1 in 2008) due to injury, will also face innings constraints. If--and that is one giant if--the Orioles can get 180 innings from all of these guys next season, that's 900 innings and the team won't be forced to prematurely consider Jake Arrietta or Brandon Erbe for the rotation. More likely, someone is going to miss some signifcant time and the Orioles will need at least one more starter.

From this perspective, the deal makes a lot of sense. $9mm with no commitment beyond 2010 is a financial risk the Orioles can easily afford to take, and Millwood is about as low risk as 35-year old starting pitchers come. If his presence permits the Orioles to limit the innings for their youngsters and takes a bit of load off the bullpen, his acquisition will be a success. All that nonsense from Schmuck about taking the pressure off Guthrie and providing a PR boost is just fluff. This deal is all about avoiding a repeat of last season, where 4/5ths of the Opening Day rotation (Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Alfredo Simon, Mark Hendrickson, and Adam Eaton) was injured or had pitched themselves out of the rotation by the end of May. Good work by MacPhail recognizing a mistake he made in 2009 and correcting it--at minimal cost--for 2010.
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Ray to Rangers

The Sun is reporting that the O's and Rangers are near a deal that will send Chris Ray to the Rangers in return for veteran starter Kevin Millwood. This makes much more sense than the Felix Pie or David Hernandez rumors we've been hearing, and from a cost-benefit standpoint, I like this deal for the O's. From a personal standpoint, I'm disappointed to see my former teammate traded out of Baltimore, but this at least gives him a good shot at the postseason in 2010. This looks to be a good move by MacPhail to trade a fungible commodity (right-handed reliever) for a short-term fix in the starting rotation.
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Kevin Millwood

Multiple sources are linking the Orioles to Kevin Millwood after Day 1 of the Winter Meetings, with Felix Pie being the most likely player moved for pitching help. Now, the Orioles could certainly use the 30 starts Millwood is likely to provide, but this is not a move with much upside. Millwood went 13-10 with a 3.67 ERA in 198.2 IP last season, but was 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 168.2 IP in 2008. In reality, his talent lies somewhere between those extremes.

In 2008, Millwood suffered from an abnormally high BaBIP of .366, and, similarly, he was a bit lucky with a .279 BaBIP in 2009. He will be 35 in 2010, and he hasn't reached his career average strikeout rate (7.03 K/9) since 2004, coming in last season at just 5.57 K/9. He's under contract through 2010 at $12 million, so this would almost certainly be a 1-year stopgap. Felix Pie seems a steep price to pay for one season of a league average starting pitcher.
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Young Pitching

Orioles.com writer Spencer Fordin posted an excellent article yesterday discussing the Orioles plans for the starting rotation this September. The club (rightly) plans to protect its young pitchers and may move to a six man rotation for the season's final month. I don't know for sure whether a stretched out rotation or simply piggybacking potential starters (i.e., Matusz for five innings, followed by a long man) is a better idea, but I think that adding a man to the rotation is probably the way to go since it forces the young kids to pitch fewer innings than would be possible under a five man rotation; there will be fewer opportunities to abandon a solid outing to try and get a win in a game that is meaningless in the standings. Also, while we've rightly been critical of Dave Trembley's in-game strategizing, he makes some very sensible comments in this article:

"The thing that I've noticed is how much more difficult it is for the young guys, and how much harder they seem to have to work at this level," said Trembley. "The other teams will grind you. Toronto, the other day, they just waited Matusz out. I think you have to look at the pitch count and add 20-25 pitches to it. Physically, it's pretty taxing for them. Outs don't come easy and they really have to work to get them. In that sense, I think you have to be very wise about how long you leave them out there, how many innings they throw and how hard they work."

Trembley may not be the guy to manage this team long-term, but I do believe he's done a very good job putting the development needs of the organization first. I'm sure he knows the fan base is unhappy, and it can't be easy for him to keep Jason Berken's name on his starting pitching calendar, but he's done so. That is admirable.

Brad Bergesen

After turning in yet another quality start yesterday, Brad Bergesen hit the DL today thanks to a line drive off the bat of Billy Butler that left a nasty bruise and created quite the scare. Fortunately, it appears the injury will end up being minor. Still, the Orioles are right to be cautious; injuries to a pitcher's legs can cause slight alterations to mechanics and lead to cascading injuries as players adjust to compensate. It's also unfortunate that the Orioles will lose their most effective starter and a Rookie of the Year candidate for at least two weeks.

However, so long as the injury truly is minor, this could actually be a blessing in disguise. Bergesen has been worked fairly hard this year, having already thrown 134.1 innings, just 31 innings short of last season's total. With 61 games to go, Bergesen would likely make 10 to 12 more starts, easily pushing him past last year's total and perhaps close to 200 IP. That would make the 23-year old Bergesen a candidate for the "Verducci Effect", which basically states that young pitchers (< 25 years of age) should not exceed the previous season's inning total by more than 30 IP. This injury will likely keep him within that threshold, and perhaps keep him healthier for next year.

It's also worth noting that last year Chris Tillman threw 135.2 innings for Bowie. This season, he's notched 100.2 between Norfolk and Baltimore. If he gets 10 more starts, he'll likely finish in the 160 IP ranged, meaning that the Orioles will have successfully managed the 21-year old's workload as well. To round out the pitching prospects: Jake Arrieta threw 113.0 last year, and 110.2 so far this season. One more month in Norfolk would put him at about the allowable increase, but also preclude a September call-up. Brian Matusz has thrown 112.0 innings in 2009, and did not pitch professionally in 2008. He threw 105.0 collegiate innings in 2008, and 123.0 in 2007. As much as we'd probably like to see them, I doubt either debuts for the Orioles in 2009. Instead, we're probably in for a mix of Mark Hendrickson, Brian Bass, David Pauley and Chris Waters spot starts.
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Over the Hill

Rich Hill turned in another poor start last night, yielding 5 ER in 3+ innings pitched while allowing 3 hits and 4 walks. As the Sun speculates this morning, and as we speculated last night at the bar while watching the game, his time in the rotation--and on the ballclub--could be up. It's now official: the Chris Tillman rumblings have become a full blown roar. Could we see him in Baltimore soon?

Tillman is scheduled to pitch tonight at Gwinnett, and Jason Berken will pitch for the O's in New York. The Orioles then have an off-day before visiting the Red Sox this weekend and hosting the Royals starting Monday. Here's how the O's rotation currently aligns:

Tonight: Jason Berken
Friday: Brad Bergesen
Saturday: TBA
Sunday: David Hernandez
Monday: Rich Hill

That TBA should be Jeremy Guthrie, assuming he bounces back from his last outing when he threw 108 pitches while still battling the lingering effects of a viral infection. It does, however, raise the intriguing possibility of bumping Tillman from his start tonight and flying him to Boston for his Major League debut on Saturday. Even if Tillman pitches tonight for Norfolk, however, he's lined up perfectly to take Hill's slot in the rotation on Monday. Given that evidence, I really think we've seen the last of Rich Hill in the rotation and the only question becomes whether or not he moves to the bullpen or is designated for assignment. The Orioles are already carrying a dozen pitchers, so moving Hill to the bullpen would necessitate another pitching move. Unless MacPhail can move Sherrill or Baez or is willing to part ways with the surprisingly effective Mark Hendrickson, I don't see how the roster can accomodate Hill moving to the bullpen. As much as it pains me to write this, it's time for the O's to give up on the Rich Hill experiment. If he's going to recapture the glory, it will have to be with another club.
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Starting Rotation

Well, that puts 60% of the Opening Day rotation down. Not that this wasn't entirely predictable or anything...

Matt Albers gets the recall from Norfolk to take Eaton's roster spot, but it is less clear who will take the rotation slot. Albers was pitching fairly well in Norfolk (2.25 ERA in 8.0 IP, 9 K, 3 BB), and has shown glimpses of his potential during his stints with the Orioles, but he has been pitching as a reliever. Will there be another roster move in a few days to bring up a starter (perhaps David Hernandez, though he is scheduled to pitch tonight against Rochester; Jason Berken threw last night for the Tides), or will Brian Bass or Mark Hendrickson (please no) slot into the rotation? With no off day this coming week, the Orioles definitely need a fifth...
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Little Big League

Last night, the first of a bevy of talented young pitchers, Brad Bergesen, impressed Oriole fans in his Major League debut. I was tremendously excited to get my first glimpse of the future, and even kept a running diary of his first start. Since Bergesen was so successful, the conversation has naturally turned to when we'll get to see Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and other young pitchers. After all, it's not like the guys currently in the rotation are really performing adequately. Besides, what harm could come in at least getting the fans excited, right? Peter Schmuck:

Everybody, me included, wants to see these kids as soon as it makes sense for both them and the team, but there is plenty to lose if it doesn't [work out]. There are all kinds of examples of top pitching prospects who came up too soon and had either
their arms or their psyches damaged before they could reach their full potential.

We all know 2009 is a bridge season. The hopelessness of the last decade is gone, but the team hasn't quite fully emerged from the Tunnel of Darkness to the sunny lands of Contender Meadows. There is still work to be done, and just because Brad Bergesen met expecations doesn't mean we should throw The Plan out the window. Remember, we suspected all along that Bergesen was ready and that he would be in the Baltimore rotation in short order. In other words, things are going according to The Plan, not ahead of it.

I fully subscribe to the idea that the Orioles actually have better pitchers--not just more talented ones, actually better ones--in the minor leagues than in the Major Leagues, but that does not mean they should all be starting in Baltimore every five days. Young pitchers are fragile beings, especially when rushed--just look at Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen. Allowing them to develop in the minors, where it is much easier to control pitch counts, workloads, and definitions of success can be just as valuable as experience against Major League hitters. Is there a learning curve associated with the jump from the minors to the Majors? Absolutely. But making sure these guys are ready to tackle that learning curve is MacPhail's job one right now. If he deems them ready in June or July, that's perfectly fine. But just because we see the 2009 Major League season slipping away and Brad Bergesen made an excellent debut, does not mean the careful planning should be thrown out the window. It just means everything is pretty much as we expected it to be two months ago.
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2009 Opening Day Rotation

With the news that Hayden Penn has been shipped to Miami, it seems as if the Orioles Opening Day rotation is set: Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Alredo Simon, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson (in some order). Just for fun, let's look at their 2009 PECOTA Projections.




First off, I'm not sure why PECOTA is so bearish on Guthrie, but I'll guess it has to do with BABIP regression from a very low .261 in 2008. Next, we can see that this projected starting rotation, which Baseball Prospectus projects to contribute just 635 innings (last year's rotation threw 250 more than that), is expected to perform only slightly better than last year's motley crew. Still, I think it's safe to say that if Simon, Eaton, and Hendrickson live up to those numbers, they won't be approaching the 110 IP that those projections expect. Since MLB refuses to shorten the schedule for the Orioles this season, someone needs to make those 162 starts. I just don't think it will be those threee guys. Perhaps the cavalry?
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The Starting Rotation

The Baltimore Sun currently has an "O's Opening Day Rotation" poll up on its website asking readers to select each of the five starters who should break camp with the club. The results are fascinating (all figures below as of time of writing).

1. Jeremy Guthrie receives 1486 of 1522 (97.6%) of the possible votes
2. Koji Uehara receives 1391 of 1522 (91.4%) of the possible votes
3. Rich Hill receives 685 of 1514 (45.2%) of the possible votes

And now it gets interesting:
For the fourth slot, Matt Albers -- No longer in consideration for rotation (that's how he's actually listed!) received 130 of 1513 votes (8.6%), Danys Baez 209 (13.8%), Brad Bergenson 222, (14.7%), Adam Eaton 270 (17.8%), Mark Hendrickson 133 (8.8%), Rich Hill 244 (16.1%), Radhames Liz 161 (10.6%), and Other 118 (7.8%). The results are very similar for the fifth slot, with Bergensen picking up a bit more support, Hill less, and Other lots more. With seven named choices, plus Other, which could presumably include Hayden Penn and David Pauley (yes, the David Pauley "who probably will be in the starting rotation if he can get through the next three weeks without getting hit by a meteor," which might actually happen considering how he's been pitching), for three rotation slots, it's difficult to pinpoint anyone other than Rich Hill that would be supported by Orioles fans. And Rich Hill has been injured this spring after being demoted to the minors in 2008! It could be a very long season for Orioles fans fond of good pitching.

Also of note: Jeremy Guthrie received a total of 1528 votes, meaning some people likely voted for him for multiple rotation slots. I'm inclined to agree.

Prediction: The Opening Day rotation will be Guthrie, Uehara, Penn, Pauley and Bergeson. We know Guthrie and Uehara are in there, and Penn and Pauley are strong candidates by virtue of being out of options. Bergeson has pitched well thus far and I like the fact that he throws lots of strikes.
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

Really? A.J. Burnett?

The Baltimore Sun has Dan Connolly and Peter Schmuck debate whether or not the Orioles should sign Mark Teixeira. Connolly votes yes, and Schmuck votes no. Without getting into the merits of Connolly's argument, Schmuck votes no because the Orioles should instead spend the money on starting pitching, which he correctly determines the O's need desperately. However, he also correctly notes that CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets won't be signing with the Orioles. And thus he says the O's should go after A.J. Burnett. The same A.J. Burnett that will be 32 next season and who has only twice in his career pitched at least 200 innings. To be fair to Burnett, barring a late season injury, he is likely to exceed that number again in 2008. To be fair to the Orioles checkbook, Burnett also has a 4.51 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season. Burnett signed a five year, $55 million deal with the Blue Jays after the 2005 season, but he has an opt-out clause this year. He is slated to earn $12 million each of the next two seasons.

Burnett would not opt out of his contract if he and his agent were not reasonably sure that they could get a deal that would pay significantly more--for significantly longer--than his current salary. And therein lies the problem. MASN conveniently just put up the following graphic tonight, showing just how well a few "recent" big-money free agent signings have worked out:

Kevin Brown: $105 mil/7 years
Darren Dreifort: $55 mil/5 years
Mike Hampton: $121 mil/8 years
Kei Igawa: $46 mil/5 years
Gary Matthews, Jr: $50 mil/5 years
Chan Ho Park: $65 mil/5 years
Richie Sexson: $50 mil/4 years
Mo Vaughn: $80 mil/6 years
Barry Zito: $126 mil/7 years

Quite simply, these huge deals almost never work out (Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez are the only ones that come to mind), especially when injury-prone pitchers are involved. Schmuck is right to argue that the Orioles need lots of pitching; he's wrong that the Orioles should go after A.J. Burnett. I sincerely hope this is the last time he floats that horrible idea.

Chris Waters Debut

Chris Waters had a fantastic, if unlikely, Major League debut last night. Just how unlikely? Rob Neyer at ESPN.com breaks it down. Congratulations to Waters, but I certainly hope that no Orioles fans are thinking he's going to be a savior down the stretch.

Make 'em earn it

Following a report from Amber Theoharris that the Matt Wieters, Brad Bergeson and Hayden Penn all had excellent outings in the minors tonight, Buck Martinez addressed some of the mounting speculation that the Orioles will overhaul their rotation, in addition to plugging in Dennis Sarfate, with some of their top propects from Bowie. Martinez explained that MacPhail seems to be of the opinion that it makes no sense to rush the pitching prospects just because the big league rotation is in shambles. I agree.

Martinez went on to explain that he believes there is nothing wrong with allowing Wieters and Bergeson to dominate their levels for the remainder of the minor league season. Again, I agree, although with a few caveats. Neither Bergeson nor Wieters is exceptionally young for their level, and the difference between AA and AAA is relatively small. If these prospects were enjoying this level of success in Frederick, they should be advanced to offer new developmental challenges. Since they have already reached the upper levels of the minors, they can be held at a given level for a full season, unless the organization deems them ready to contribute at the big league level. "Ready" obviously has many considerations, from purely baseball to service time and roster construction, and, as a team with no playoff hopes, the Orioles should resist the temptation to jump Bergeson to the rotation when the Orioles need a fifth starter next week.

As for Hayden Penn, I cannot believe he is still just 23 years old; we've seen him in an Orioles uniform since 2005, back in just his third professional season. At the time, he was a hot-shot prospect, having begun his career in Bluefield in 2003 and then jumping all the way to Bowie in 2004. In 2005, he made his major league debut despite never pitching in AAA. Things did not go well: 38.3 IP, 6.34 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18). He pitched great in AAA in 2006, and terribly in the majors; 2007 was a season lost to injury. His 2008 season got off to a slow start, but reports have him pitching much better of late in Norfolk. As someone who has had success in the minors, it might be time to give him another shot in Baltimore if the player development department believes he is capable of getting big league hitters out. At age 23, Penn still has plenty of time to develop, but I fear he may be yet another top pitching prospect previous regimes failed to develop. Though just one of many cautionary tales, Penn's rapid ascent and early big league struggles give MacPhail ample reason to handle the new crop of prospects cautiously.

Pitch Counts

There was a fantastic article from Joe Sheehan over at Baseball Prospectus this week regarding pitch counts, abusing young pitchers and veterans throwing more than 100 pitches in an outing. Spurred by the second time this month the Mets removed Johan Santana with a reasonable pitch count after the 8th inning only to have the bullpen blow a lead to the Phillies, Sheehan concludes that today's game has taken a noble idea--limiting the abuse to young pitchers--too far and that nearly all of today's starters are babied.

As anyone who regularly watches the Orioles knows, Jim Palmer and Gary Thorne love to discuss just how many pitches Palmer used to throw when he was pitching for the Orioles. It's one of my pet peeves when former starters use the workloads they endured in the 1970s to justify the need for today's starters to go deeper into games, but the point does have some merit. The money quote from Sheehan:

The solution here is fairly simple: forget that anyone ever mentioned the
number "100." That number isn’t meaningful in any sense. If you really want to
use numbers to guide you, here are two: 25 and 120. Once a pitcher is 25 years
old, you can generally consider him physically mature enough to handle a full
workload. A full workload for a mature, healthy pitcher should include starts of
up to 120 pitches without inviting injury risk. Usage beyond that mark—actually,
121 pitches in the PAP^3 framework—do raise the risk, but that risk can be
measured against the context of the situation. Flags fly forever, and the
pursuit of one does sometimes outweigh the risks involved.

I'm all for keeping young pitchers healthy; the Orioles have been especially bad at this over the past decade, and I hope the MacPhail regime is thoroughly evaluating the pitcher development programs in place throughout the organization to determine if there was a systemic failure that led to so many injuries. However, Sheehan is right that many veterans could throw more pitches without increasing the risk of injury.

Keep in mind, though, that Sheehan is looking strictly at injury risk and not at performance. It's popular to say that Jeremy Guthrie--especially since he's the only effective starter for the Orioles--should be throwing more pitches; he has just five starts where he's thrown more than 110 pitches, and he has a number of very effective starts where he's failed to surpass the 100 pitch mark. However, he has a very noticeable split for OPS against for pitches 0 to 100 and pitches 101+. If he's not effective beyond a certain point, Trembley is right to remove Guthrie and try to preserve a victory, regardless of whether or not an additional 15 pitches will raise the injury risk. Just don't tell that to Jim Palmer.

Road Trippin'

The Orioles have an off day today as they travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a three game set. Then it's on to Boston for three more before the All Star break. I can't help but feel that this week is going to be exceptionally important for the O's.

On the morning of June 27, the Orioles were coming off a tough road swing through Milwaukee and Chicago where they split six games, winning once against the Brewers and twice against the Cubs. Since then, however, the Orioles have dropped two out of three to the lowly Nationals, split a four game set with the Royals and fallen twice more to the Rangers. But more important than their 4-6 mark in the last 10 games is what has happened to the pitching staff:

• George Sherrill has been quite shaky; in his last four outings, he has allowed a game winning home run against the Nationals, a game tying homer against the Royals, two inherited runners to score before closing out a win over the Royals, and two hits, two walks and two inherited runners to score against the Rangers.
• Adam Loewen is likely headed to the DL again, and despite my bullish sentiments from last week, the Orioles may very well never get anything of value out of Loewen; he just cannot stay healthy.
• Jamie Walker hit the DL on June 30.
• Matt Albers hit the DL on June 26.

For a team that relies on Garrett Olson (5.1 innings per start), Radhames Liz (4.2 innings per start) and Brian Burres (5.2 innings per start) for 60% of its starting rotation, losing three quality bullpen arms is a huge blow. All of a sudden, what was once a strength--the bullpen--is a significant question mark. Luminaries such as Fernando Cabrera (career 4.82 ERA), Lance Cormier (career 5.57 ERA) and Greg Aquino (career 5.35 ERA) will be called upon to pitch big innings ahead of Jim Johnson (just 25 strikeouts in 48.0 IP, 19 walks, yet to allow a home run), Dennis Sarfate (43 strikeouts in 39.2 IP, but an incredible 34 walks), Chad Bradford (just 11 strikeouts in 32.1 IP) and Sherrill (22 walks and 5 home runs allowed in 38.2 IP).

Looking at that list, it is highly unlikely the Orioles bullpen will show the same amount of success in the second half of the season that it did in the first. Sooner or later, someone is going to hit a home run off Johnson, the walks are going to cost Sarfate, and Bradford will be undone by his inability to get strikeouts. As we've seen with Sherrill in the past week, relievers who allow a significant number of baserunners walk a fine line between "making things interesting" and costing the club wins.

Between the starting pitching and the relief pitching, the Orioles seem poised to give up quite a few runs for the remainder of the season. Still, they have a team ERA of 4.42 (league ERA 4.16) and at 44-43, they have performed right in line with their run differential (+1), showing that their offense has been above average at scoring runs so far (4.7 runs/game). Considering that they have gotten almost zero production from short stop, third base, and catcher and barely any production from first base, how have they done so? For starters, the team has been signficantly better with runners in scoring position: .277/.365/.431 with RISP vs. .261/.328/.426 in all situations. There is likely to be some regression to the mean in the second half. On the plus side, Adam Jones is improving with nearly every at-bat, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis should have been All-Stars, and Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff, if not outstanding players, are at least professional hitters. Fewer at-bats for Jay Payton, improved production from Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora, and a more optimal lineup mean that scoring fewer runs isn't necessarily a given.

Still, the O's face six tough games this week, are given a three day reprieve, and then play 14 games in 14 days against Detroit (20-8 since June 7, though most of that damage came against the National League), Toronto and their dangerous pitching, the first-place Anaheim Angels and the arch-rival Yankees. At that point, the Orioles have an off day on July 31, the non-waiver trading deadline. Will the club remain intact? As the O's face a difficult month ahead, short on pitching and long on quality opponents, they'll face many tough decisions: what to do about Brian Roberts? Aubrey Huff? George Sherrill? Is this team capable of making a run at .500? It's been a fun three months, but the I'm afraid that things are about to get a whole lot more difficult in the four weeks ahead.

Adam Loewen Returns

Adam Loewen returned to the big leagues last night and tossed two scoreless innings. The 6' 5", 24-year old Loewen has continuously struggled with injuries in his young career, and as also been hurt by the initial contract he signed with the club back in 2003. After being drafted in 2002, Loewen held out until the last minute (literally) and signed just a week before the 2003 draft. To get a deal done, the O's gave Loewen--a 19-year old pitcher with one year of junior college experience--a Major League contract. Since he received that Major League deal, he had to be added to the 40-man roster and optioned to the minors, meaning he only had four seasons of development before he need be on the 25-man roster or the Orioles would be forced to expose Loewen to waivers.

2003, Option Year 1: 7 starts in short-season Aberdeen. He pitched great but only threw 23 innings, striking out 25 and walking just 9.
2004, Option Year 2: 21 starts (plus one relief appearance), of which 19 were made in low-A Delmarva. He pitched a total of 93 innings, striking out 85 (good), walking 67 (bad), and allowing 84 hits.
2005, Option Year 3: 27 starts (plus one relief appearance) at high-A Frederick. Healthy the entire season, he was stretched to 142 innings, maintained his high strikeout rate (9.25 K/9 IP) and improved his walk rate marginally (from 6.48 BB/9 IP in 2004 to 5.45 BB/9 IP in 2005).
2006, Option Year 4: 8 starts (plus one relief appearance) at AA Bowie, 3 starts at AAA Ottawa. He combined to throw 71 innings, strike out 76 and walk just 29 (3.43 BB/9 IP), showing that, when healthy, he very much had the talent to be a top of the rotation starter.

All of which is a typical progression for a young pitcher learning to command his pitches. Had he not received that Major League contract, Loewen likely would have begun 2006 in Bowie. Instead, at age 22 and with just 329 minor league innings and two full seasons of mediocre results under his belt, the Orioles were forced to bring him to Baltimore. Predictably, he struggled with his command, walking 62 in just 112.1 IP. But he kept that high strikeout rate (7.85 K/9 IP).

In 2007, Loewen again struggled with his command, walking 26 in just 30.1 IP before suffering a season ending stress fracture in his pitching arm. Attempting to come back this season, Loewen is was no better at throwing strikes; he walked 15 in just 18.1 2008 innings before hitting the DL. On his rehab assignment, he pitched in nine different games, totaling 9.2 IP and he walked just two. In his first appearance since returning to Baltimore, he walked just one last night.

Because great things were expected of Loewen, and it seems as if he's been around for a very long time, many fans have grown impatient. It's important to remember that Loewen is just 24, and has missed virtually all of the past two seasons with injuries. Over his first five professional seasons, Loewen made very real progress in learning to command his pitches against progressively better competition. Since then, however, he hasn't pitched enough or been healthy enough to draw any conclusions. The Orioles need to be extra-careful with Loewen this season and hope that the arm problems that have plagued him in his early career can be fixed. If he can get on the mound with regularity, I'm convinced the good results will come.

UPDATE: MLB.com reports Adam Loewen is feeling good after last night's outing.