Trade Deadline Primer

If you're like me, you've noticed that Daniel Moroz at Camden Crazies hasn't recently been blogging quite as frequently as is usual.  Well, now I know why.  The 2010 Trade Deadline Primer is out, and it's an incredible piece work of work by Daniel and other bloggers from around the league.  Would you like to know which Major Leaguers are likely to be available from each of the 30 teams?  How about the prospects each team has to offer in return?  Or perhaps you're more interested in specific first basemen or shortstops the Orioles could chase at the deadline.  It's all there, plus rundowns of the first half for each team and essays from around the league.  This is a fantastic work from the analyst community, and a prime example of why I enjoy baseball on the Internet so much.  Check out the free version (about 1/4 of the book), or spring for the whole thing; I suspect it will be $10 well spent.

The Adrian Gonzalez Market

R.J. Anderson at FanGraphs has a fantastic breakdown of the Adrian Gonzalez trade market, showing an easy-to-read table outlining who needs a first baseman and then going through each team's prospect/competitive/cash situation to find five potential suitors. The Orioles basically come out in the top 3.

I think Gonzalez would be an excellent fit for the Orioles; it all comes down to cost. If the O's could snag the star first baseman without surrendering Matusz or Tillman, that seems like a pretty good deal. I don't know if that is realistic, however. My proposal: Felix Pie, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe or Zach Britton and Caleb Joseph. This would give the Padres a center fielder immediately capable of playing at Petco Park, a pair of top pitching prospects that are close to Major League ready and a catching prospect that Baseball Prospectus calls "an excellent hitter with good barrel manipulation and some of the best plate coverage in the system." Note that this means the Orioles would surrender their #3, #4/#6 and #9 prospects, according to BP.

Is that enough? I don't know. It depends on San Diego's opinion of Pie and Joseph (who has yet to play above Frederick) and whether or not Arrieta and Erbe/Britton are viewed as having high enough ceilings. I doubt this would get the deal done, but it seems like a reasonable place to begin discussions.
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More on Millwood

Baseball Prospectus offers the most upbeat take on the Millwood deal yet, and I agree.

I love the decision to add Millwood not simply because of the atmospherics—the
meme about the veteran workhorse joining a talented young rotation, etc.—or his
relative track record, but because it's exactly right in terms of adding that
guy for just a single season. Maybe this is a reflection of the past premiums
the Orioles have had to pay to get someone to choose Baltimore, but adding
Millwood for a single season at roughly $7 or 8 million (the $12 million he's
due, less the $3 million, less Ray's arbitration-boosted payday to come) is an
outstanding adaptation to a market that wasn't likely to yield his combination
of good work and reliable turn-taking at that price. For a year, the
organization can let Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, David
Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, and Jason Berken earn turns in the big-league rotation
behind Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie, perhaps phase out or deal Guthrie, and then
let Millwood walk away, leaving 2011 draft picks in his wake. It's just one more
reason why the Orioles won't be a fun matchup for the favored three atop the
division, which should make for the most interesting Orioles team to watch in
more than a decade.

Echoes my sentiments exactly.
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Felix Pie

Some good news today:

Speaking of Pie, there are several members of the organization that are very
much against trading the talented but raw outfielder. I’m not saying he won’t be
traded because there are enough teams interested and the Orioles are deep in the
outfield, but I am saying that the Orioles are going to have to get something
enticing back to deal him. Pie’s strong second half has earned him some
believers in the organization, and probably justified the team’s decision not to
trade him to the Chicago White Sox last year for third baseman Josh Fields.

These are my sentiments about Felix Pie exactly. He's always been talented, and he really did show signs of putting it all together last year. Yes, he is currently 4th on the outfield depth chart, but I see no reason that the Orioles can't get both Pie and Reimold regular at-bats. And it never hurts to have a capable back-up centerfielder on the roster. If the club does decide to deal Pie, it would have to be in a deal that brings back a significant piece.
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More on Millwood

Blogosphere: React!

MLB Fanhouse:

Adding an experienced starter makes a lot of sense for the Orioles. They've
got three talented youngsters in Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman,
but young pitchers come with innings limits and assorted other potential land
mines that keep them from throwing oodles of innings.

Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan:

Millwood at $8 [sic] million for one year is a solid pickup for the
Orioles, who get an innings guy to anchor the rotation as they bring along a
number of good young starting pitchers who will require some careful handling,
and they do so without giving up talent or committing past ’10.

Orioles GM Andy MacPhail, via Baseball Prospectus:

"We think (Millwood) is going to have a positive cascading effect on Jeremy
Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, and Jason
Berken," Orioles vice president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said. "He
should really anchor our staff."

FanGraphs:

For the Orioles, they receive a roughly average starting pitcher. As a one
year commitment, 9 million dollars isn’t egregious. It will be probably be near
his market value. With the Orioles not in a position to compete, taking on that
kind of salary doesn’t really make sense. This kind of money could be much
better spent on international signings, draft picks, or other developmental type
of projects. He will give them decent production, but is the marginal value of
his 2-3 wins above replacement really worth 9 million dollars to them? I’m not
sure.

Peter Schmuck:

Guthrie did everything he could to fill the No. 1 starter role the past two
years, but everybody knew it was too much responsibility for him, and he wilted
under the weight of it last season. Millwood will assume that role, which should
make everybody in the rotation more comfortable in their own skin. The trade
is just as important from a public relations and marketing standpoint because it
sends a signal that the Orioles are serious about improving the team for 2010.
MacPhail has to follow up with several more acquisitions over the next couple of
months, but he has made good on a key priority with plenty of time left to
concentrate on upgrading the corner infield positions and the bullpen.

In my opinion, this is a solid deal for the Orioles. Teams need roughly 1,000 innings from their starters to make it through the 162-game schedule. Guthrie and Millwood can be penciled in for roughly 60 starts and somewhere between 360 and 400 innings. Brian Matusz threw 157.2 innings a year ago, and is unlikely to be asked to go much beyond 180 IP in 2010. Ditto Chris Tillman (161.2 IP in 2009). Brad Bergesen, who reached just 134.1 IP in 2009 (after 165.1 in 2008) due to injury, will also face innings constraints. If--and that is one giant if--the Orioles can get 180 innings from all of these guys next season, that's 900 innings and the team won't be forced to prematurely consider Jake Arrietta or Brandon Erbe for the rotation. More likely, someone is going to miss some signifcant time and the Orioles will need at least one more starter.

From this perspective, the deal makes a lot of sense. $9mm with no commitment beyond 2010 is a financial risk the Orioles can easily afford to take, and Millwood is about as low risk as 35-year old starting pitchers come. If his presence permits the Orioles to limit the innings for their youngsters and takes a bit of load off the bullpen, his acquisition will be a success. All that nonsense from Schmuck about taking the pressure off Guthrie and providing a PR boost is just fluff. This deal is all about avoiding a repeat of last season, where 4/5ths of the Opening Day rotation (Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Alfredo Simon, Mark Hendrickson, and Adam Eaton) was injured or had pitched themselves out of the rotation by the end of May. Good work by MacPhail recognizing a mistake he made in 2009 and correcting it--at minimal cost--for 2010.
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Ray to Rangers

The Sun is reporting that the O's and Rangers are near a deal that will send Chris Ray to the Rangers in return for veteran starter Kevin Millwood. This makes much more sense than the Felix Pie or David Hernandez rumors we've been hearing, and from a cost-benefit standpoint, I like this deal for the O's. From a personal standpoint, I'm disappointed to see my former teammate traded out of Baltimore, but this at least gives him a good shot at the postseason in 2010. This looks to be a good move by MacPhail to trade a fungible commodity (right-handed reliever) for a short-term fix in the starting rotation.
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Kevin Millwood

Multiple sources are linking the Orioles to Kevin Millwood after Day 1 of the Winter Meetings, with Felix Pie being the most likely player moved for pitching help. Now, the Orioles could certainly use the 30 starts Millwood is likely to provide, but this is not a move with much upside. Millwood went 13-10 with a 3.67 ERA in 198.2 IP last season, but was 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA in 168.2 IP in 2008. In reality, his talent lies somewhere between those extremes.

In 2008, Millwood suffered from an abnormally high BaBIP of .366, and, similarly, he was a bit lucky with a .279 BaBIP in 2009. He will be 35 in 2010, and he hasn't reached his career average strikeout rate (7.03 K/9) since 2004, coming in last season at just 5.57 K/9. He's under contract through 2010 at $12 million, so this would almost certainly be a 1-year stopgap. Felix Pie seems a steep price to pay for one season of a league average starting pitcher.
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More Sherrill Trade Reactions

From around the interwebs...

Rob Neyer, ESPN: "What I will do is send up a big hip-hip-hooray for the Orioles, because the single best thing any rebuilding manager can do, ever, is trade a relief pitcher in late July for a couple of solid prospects... If I were an Orioles fan, I would be organizing a party right now."

Keith Law, ESPN: "The main return for Baltimore is third baseman Josh Bell, who alone is probably worth more in asset value than a good but sub-Joe Nathan, 60-inning-a-year reliever with two years of control left."

R.J. Anderson, FanGraphs: "The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Flipping Sherrill to the Dodgers to add Bell merely drives home the extent to which the Bedard deal—of which Sherrill was the semi-famous part—is the gift that keeps on giving."

I'll update here as I come across more analysis.
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Sherrill Dealt

Score another one for Andy MacPhail. George Sherrill, everyone's favorite flat-brimmed closer, was traded to the Dodgers this afternoon for 22-year old switch hitting third baseman Josh Bell. Bell ranked this preseason as the Dodgers 8th best prospect, and is especially known as having above average power potential and a strong throwing arm. However, he is a big man (6' 3", 235 lbs), and there is some concern about his weight becoming an issue. Bell has put together a solid season in the Double A Southern League this year, batting .296/.386/.497 with 11 homers and 30 doubles in 334 at-bats. He may not be a top 100 prospect, but I suspect that Nolan Reimold would be a good comparison for the type of prospect (if not entirely the style of player) we should expect. All in all, I think this was an excellent job by MacPhail to turn a valuable trade chip into a player with the potential to fill a glaring hole for the Orioles.

Before we get all misty eyed about George Sherrill and lament the lack of an experienced closer, let's keep this in mind: the Orioles have developed impressive pitching depth in the minor leagues (and just added to it with the other player in this deal, Steve Johnson). Good organizations should churn out arms capable of filling relief roles. Between Jim Johnson, Matt Albers, Chris Ray, Kam Mickolio, Troy Patton and a host of others, including David Hernandez and Koji Uehara, the Orioles should have no problem finding someone to fill the role just as capably as Sherrill. Don't get me wrong: Sherrill pitched great this season. It's just that, at this stage of rebuilding for the Orioles, a 22-year power bat who can play third base is more valuable than a 31-year old lefthanded set-up man masquerading as a closer. In case you still weren't convinced, this is more evidence that this organization has completely turned the corner in the last two years.
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Trade Deadline

As the trade deadline looms later this week, the Orioles have only one player that is drawing any significant interest: George Sherrill. Both the Dodgers and Angels appear interested, with Josh Bell and Brandon Wood, respectively, being the prospects the Orioles are hoping to acquire. If the Los Angeles clubs offer either of those players, I have one piece of advice for Andy MacPhail: say 'yes' as fast as you can and immediately fax the paperwork to the commissioner's office. George Sherrill is a 32-year old left-handed reliever. He's been very good for the team this year, but we all know that he's not a true shut down reliever. Josh Bell is a 22-year old switch-hitting third baseman who, according Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus, offers great tools and has made significant progress in his approach at the plate. Brandon Wood, who has admittedly struggled mightily in limited time in Anaheim, has crushed AAA pitching, has massive power and been a top prospect for a very long-time. Both of those guys would be an impressive haul for George Sherrill.
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Trade Speculation

In the past few days, there has been increasing chatter regarding the future of Atlanta Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar. The Braves are in need of offense as they look to finish ahead of the flawed Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and Florida Marlins in the mediocre NL East. Escobar may not be a superstar, but he is a capable shortstop and, at age 26, would be a long-term solution for some club at the position. Would the Orioles be a good fit? One potential trade: Escobar to the Orioles for Cesar Izturis, Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott. The Braves are currently playing Casey Kotchman (.273/.340/.390) at first base and a Garrett Anderson/Matt Diaz platoon in left field. Diaz, a right-handed hitter, has solid numbers, but Anderson's best days are well past. Both Scott and Huff would be upgrades for Braves, and Izturis could replace Escobar at short. If Anderson or Diaz could play right field, the Braves could sit Jeff Francouer (65 OPS+) and improve even more. The Orioles would need to find someone to play first base, but Ty Wiggington could man the position for the rest of the season, or the club could give Nolan Reimold a bit of playing time at the position and take one final look at Felix Pie.
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2003 Draft Redux

Back in 2003, the Orioles selected Nick Markakis with the 7th pick of the draft. Clearly, this was a smart move. At the time, though, it seemed a bit risky (many scouts preferred Markakis as a pitcher), and I was personally hoping for the O's to select another two-way player: Michael Aubrey. Instead, the Indians picked Aubrey 11th overall, Markakis became a budding star and Aubrey progressed slowly, in no small part due to numerous injuries. Well, now I get my wish: the O's traded for Aubrey today. Since the Orioles just promoted Brandon Snyder to play first base in Norfolk, does this mean the Aubrey Huff trade rumors will start flying?
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Joey Gathright

Apparently the Orioles have decided that Ryan Freel's complaining about being the utililty player he agreed to be got old, and they have shipped him to (where else?) the Chicago Cubs for Joey Gathright; Gathright will be sent to Norfolk. Gathright is no great shakes (he has a career OPS of 68 over 6 seasons and 1300 plate appearances), so I can only assume the deal comes with some cost savings for the Orioles. I suppose he'll provide a bit of Adam Jones injury insurance, but, barring that ruinous circumstance, I don't see why he'd ever don a Baltimore uniform.

Freel ends his Orioles career after just 9 games and 20 at-bats. After suffering his unfortunate injury, the club just couldn't find roster space for him. Robert Andino and Ty Wiggington fill the back-up infield roles, and Lou Montanez and Luke Scott do likewise in the outfield. With Nolan Reimold making it tough to ignore him in Norfolk, Freel was the odd man out. Hopefully, he'll be happier with a contending club; the Cubs do figure to be able to offer a bit more regular playing time behind Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukodome and Reed Johnson. Depending on the level of seriousness regarding Derrek Lee's neck spasms, I would not be surprised to see the Cubs give Bradley a shot at first base (in a bid to keep him healthier) and Freel get more time in the outfield.
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

Signing Day & Waiver Trades

It's Brian Matusz signing day! Assuming the t's are crossed and i's dotted, of course, but with Matusz in town for a physical, that seems very, very likely.

The Sun also has info on Orioles players and their revocable waivers status:

• Aubrey Huff has passed through
• George Sherrill was claimed and pulled back
• Jay Payton passed through
• Kevin Millar passed through
• Jamie Walker passed through

Huff wasn't claimed because he is still owed a significant sum of money and is largely a DH only. That doesn't fit the needs of any AL contender in a competitive race--at this point only Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota. Tampa could probably use another bat, especially with their recent spat of injuries, but they've been down the Aubrey Huff road before and the parting was not amicable. Boston has David Ortiz, Chicago has about four DH's, and while Minnesota could use the bat, they probably wouldn't take the money.

I'm curious to know who claimed Sherrill--the Sun notes it was at least one unnamed AL team--and whether the Orioles attempted to work out a trade or if they pulled Sherrill back without negotiating. Sherrill is under team control for a few more years, so even though he profiles as an aging middle reliever, MacPhail has asked for significant return should he be traded. Depending on just how much he's asking for, I'm not sure I agree with that decision.

As for the others, I don't see any team looking to acquire those sorts of spare parts. Walker hasn't had any success against lefties this year (they have a shocking 1.049 OPS against him), and since he's a LOOGY that means he hasn't really had any success at all this year. Millar and Payton could both be useful to a contender, but since they are playing key roles for this mildly surprising Orioles team, neither is likely to be dealt, even though they have zero long-term value.

More on the Bradford Deal

Baseball Prospectus runs down the benefits of the deal. The key takeaway:

As a one-for-one replacement on the roster for Bradford, this could be a
right-now upgrade, and whoever Mr. TBNL turns out to be will make it better
still, since that's basically a free body for buying back the roster time to
look at Cherry instead of employing the Moneyball celeb.

They ignore the $4.0 million in savings (the difference in cost between employing Cherry and Bradford), but for a team that is still looking to sign its number one pick and perhaps make a run at a very big-money free agent this offseason, that makes the deal even more of a postive from the Orioles perspective.

It's nice to have a GM that understands how to build a competitive organization; MacPhail and his staff realized that paying Bradford large sums of money to perform a job that Cherry could do for much smaller sums of money was not a wise decision. The trade emphasizes the importance of minor league depth, especially on the mound for largely interchangeable bullpen arms, and the folly of paying "proven veterans" lots of money on multi-year contracts to pitch limited innings out of the bullpen. If a deal involving a 33-year old middle reliever and a player to be named later can be deemed exciting, this one fits the definition for Orioles fans since it shows the people in charge finally know what they're doing.

MacPhail on the Trade

This quote from the Baltimore Sun today:

"Chad did a terrific job for us," MacPhail said. "It's no surprise he was
attractive to a team that's in first place. We just felt going forward it would
give us an opportunity for some others in our organization who have some upside
to get a look over the rest of '08 and '09. I think we have that guy [a
right-handed setup reliever] in our system, and I'm going to need to fill some
other needs, so I can use the dough."

Lots of people are criticizing the O's for dumping the salary, saying that it shows a lack of commitment to winning. I don't buy that argument. By saving the money here, the Orioles can redirect the funds towards prospects, free agents, player development, etc. A middle reliever set to earn $4.5 million over the next eight months has almost no value to a 73ish win team, but could have significant value to a team looking to lock up a bid to the postseason. Even though the player returning to the Orioles, as yet unnamed, is unlikely to be an impact player, this is still a good trade.

Bradford Traded to Rays

The Orioles shed their first veteran, trading reliever Chad Bradford to the Tampa Bay Rays for the infamous Player to be Named Later. Since it appears that the Rays will pick up the remaining $4.5 million on Bradford's contract, the prospect coming back to the Orioles is certainly not one who will be an impact player. Still, saving the cash and freeing the roster spot is valuable for the Orioles as they rebuild from the ground up, so this is still a good deal for the O's. As the Orioles have proven over the past few years, middle relievers have such variable performance from year-to-year that spending significant sums on veterans is seldom a good idea. It is much cheaper to stock the organization with young power arms and hope that seven can form a balanced bullpen.

Still Standing Pat

From the ESPN.com Trade Rumors Blog:

Camden Yards has been filled with rival scouts looking at closer George Sherrill and second baseman Brian Roberts in the month of July. But two hours before the deadline, Orioles GM Andy MacPhail did not believe he would make a trade.

The Orioles made it clear to other teams that they were looking for a shortstop in return in any deal for Sherrill, and very few teams were in position to even consider that request during the season -- and the Orioles probably also were hurt by the fact that there were so many left-handed relievers available.

Without mentioning which players he considered trading or what he asked for, MacPhail said, "The spectrum of teams that we could deal with just gets bigger in the offseason."

Deadline Day

Today is the trade deadline, and it doesn't look like the Orioles are going to make any moves. Still, George Sherrill's name has been repeatedly mentioned in rumors this morning on ESPN.com. Even if the O's don't make any moves today, this has been a great week of rumors and deals: Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, Matt Kemp, Ken Griffey, Jr., Greg Maddux. That's a lot of All-Stars and Hall of Famers rumored to be/actually changing teams. Anecdotally, at least, this is the best trade deadline in a long-time.