Josh Bell

I was invited to guest blog today over at OriolesProspects.com, where I discussed Josh Bell's struggles against left-handed pitching:

Josh Bell is a switch swinger. That is, he hits from the left side of the plate, but not so much from the right side of the plate. During his minor league career the difference is stark: a career .301/.367/.506 line against right handed pitchers, but a .242/.320/.360 line versus southpaws. The first hitter is a prospect; the second would never make it to the upper levels of the minor leagues.

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Josh Bell

O's SweetSpot blogger Dave Mc asks an interesting question today:

Imagine that Bell stays hot as Las Vegas summer for the next six weeks. He plays good defense and hits lefties well enough. He is pounding on the door of the majors. Would the Orioles promote him? I'm not so sure because I'm not sure where Bell would fit defensively.

Dave's reasoning is that the club would be hesitant to move Miguel Tejada--admittedly one of the O's only bright spots on offense thus far--off third base and also wouldn't want to shift Bell to DH, first base or the outfield.  It's an interesting conundrum, but one that I think makes the mistake of overvaluing a few more wins in 2010.  Personally, if the hypothetical Dave posits comes true, I don't think MacPhail will hesitate to promote Bell.  If Tejada, who was signed specifically to be a one-year stopgap, is playing well, he could be traded to a contender looking for some help at third base (perhaps Anaheim, Minnesota or Detroit) or be moved to first base, where the O's don't exactly have a plethora of quality hitters.  In any case, this would be a happy problem for several reasons.

First of all, it is far from clear that Bell can handle third base defensively.  While errors are not a perfect (or even good) measure of defensive ability, Bell certainly makes a lot of them.  There have also been questions about his atheticism, which of course leads to speculation that his ultimate position will be first base.

Mostly, though, Bell is currently half of a hitter.  He shows good pop and plate discipline from the left side (.303/.371/.514 in his minor league career and .291/.330/.524 this season), but he is Cesar Izturis with a few more walks from the right (.237/.319/.355).  That's a huge split and one that isn't likely to close in just a couple of AAA months.  Rather, it wouldn't surprise me if the Orioles have Bell give up switch hitting.  In that case, he would clearly need a few more months in Norfolk to accumulate at-bats against lefthanders.*

*Assuming there are any left-handers to hit against.  No one on the Tides has more than about a dozen at-bats against left-handers.  Are there no left-handed pitchers in the International League?  How can I sign up for some of that?

But this actually brings up another reason that MacPhail would go ahead and promote Bell to Baltimore: he could platoon with Tejada.  Bell could play third base against right-handers, with Miggy manning the hot corner against lefties.  This would likely push Luke Scott out of the DH role (which Tejada would assume against righties), but considering that he's struck out in roughly 127% of hit at-bats this season, that would actually be a good thing.

The lesson?  MacPhail will stick to the plan.  If the O's had busted out of the gate with a surprising start (like say, the Blue Jays), maybe things would be different.  Instead, the Orioles have the "luxury" of focusing only on 2011.

More Sherrill Trade Reactions

From around the interwebs...

Rob Neyer, ESPN: "What I will do is send up a big hip-hip-hooray for the Orioles, because the single best thing any rebuilding manager can do, ever, is trade a relief pitcher in late July for a couple of solid prospects... If I were an Orioles fan, I would be organizing a party right now."

Keith Law, ESPN: "The main return for Baltimore is third baseman Josh Bell, who alone is probably worth more in asset value than a good but sub-Joe Nathan, 60-inning-a-year reliever with two years of control left."

R.J. Anderson, FanGraphs: "The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Flipping Sherrill to the Dodgers to add Bell merely drives home the extent to which the Bedard deal—of which Sherrill was the semi-famous part—is the gift that keeps on giving."

I'll update here as I come across more analysis.
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Sherrill Dealt

Score another one for Andy MacPhail. George Sherrill, everyone's favorite flat-brimmed closer, was traded to the Dodgers this afternoon for 22-year old switch hitting third baseman Josh Bell. Bell ranked this preseason as the Dodgers 8th best prospect, and is especially known as having above average power potential and a strong throwing arm. However, he is a big man (6' 3", 235 lbs), and there is some concern about his weight becoming an issue. Bell has put together a solid season in the Double A Southern League this year, batting .296/.386/.497 with 11 homers and 30 doubles in 334 at-bats. He may not be a top 100 prospect, but I suspect that Nolan Reimold would be a good comparison for the type of prospect (if not entirely the style of player) we should expect. All in all, I think this was an excellent job by MacPhail to turn a valuable trade chip into a player with the potential to fill a glaring hole for the Orioles.

Before we get all misty eyed about George Sherrill and lament the lack of an experienced closer, let's keep this in mind: the Orioles have developed impressive pitching depth in the minor leagues (and just added to it with the other player in this deal, Steve Johnson). Good organizations should churn out arms capable of filling relief roles. Between Jim Johnson, Matt Albers, Chris Ray, Kam Mickolio, Troy Patton and a host of others, including David Hernandez and Koji Uehara, the Orioles should have no problem finding someone to fill the role just as capably as Sherrill. Don't get me wrong: Sherrill pitched great this season. It's just that, at this stage of rebuilding for the Orioles, a 22-year power bat who can play third base is more valuable than a 31-year old lefthanded set-up man masquerading as a closer. In case you still weren't convinced, this is more evidence that this organization has completely turned the corner in the last two years.
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