Top 10 Prospects

Baseball America is first out of the gate with their Top 10 O's Prospects list.  Check it out.

Zach Britton

I hate to say I told you so, but... I told you so.  As reported today by the various O's outlets, Zach Britton is most likely not going to make his Major League debut in 2010.  He's slated to pitch August 30 for the Tides, and then will likely start once again before the season is over (the final Norfolk game of the season is September 6).  That will bring his total number of AAA starts to a dozen, giving him somewhere in the range of 65-70 innings at the minors' highest level, pushing his season total right near 160, a modest increase from his totals of the past two seasons*.  If the Orioles really wanted to give him a taste of the Majors, he could easily handle another start or two, but considering that he's not on the 40-man roster, patting him on the back and handing him the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award is probably the smartest way to go.  Congrats on a great season, Zach.  We'll see you in Baltimore real soon.  Please bring that sinker when you come.

*If minor league stats are to be believed. Seriously, every source reports something just a little bit different.

Turning on the Hot Stove

As the leaves fall and the air turns crisp, the baseball calendar turns to some of my favorite events: free agent speculation, trade rumors and prospect ranking season. On that last note, Baseball Prospectus is already out with their Top 11 Orioles Prospects and FanGraphs recently posted a Minor Review of the Orioles organization. We'll get more into the rankings and their implications as the winter wears on.

I sponsored my first Baseball-Reference.com page today, lending my name to the 2003 Baltimore Orioles (the sponsorship should be posted tomorrow). This is the team for which I interned in the PR department, spending a glorious summer working at the ballpark, living in a penthouse suite, and drinking $1 Yuenglings at this blog's namesake (and now defunct) dive bar. It's also the summer where I made my brilliant proclamation that an outfield of Luis Matos, Jay Gibbons, and Larry Bigbie provided a solid building block for the organization. Combined career line: .260/.316/.418 with a 162-game average of 17 homers and 65 RBI.

Checking in on Joe Jordan

Following the somewhat controversial (but not really) selection of Michael Hobgood in last week’s draft, defenders of the pick noted that the Orioles of recent seasons had spent money on the draft and that Joe Jordan’s track record had earned him the benefit of the doubt regarding the assessment of Hobgood's talent. Named Director of Scouting on November 16, 2004, by then-Executive Vice President for Baseball Operations (and Really Long Titles) Jim Beattie, Jordan just completed his fifth draft with the club, so it’s time to take a look back at how well he’s done infusing a formerly-barren Orioles minor league system with talent.

Format:
Pick Number - Player

2005 Draft

13 – Brandon Snyder: A high school catcher, injuries have since forced a move to first base. Given the position switch, Snyder’s value is tied directly to his bat. I’ll let Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus tell you how that value is developing: “It's officially a breakout season at this point for the 2005 first-round pick, who recorded his third straight multi-hit game on Thursday, is batting .440 this month and a whopping .355/.418/.612 overall. As a first baseman only type, he needed to prove that he could fit in the middle of a big lineup this year with more power, and for many scouts who have seen him, it's mission accomplished.” He’s still just 22-years old, and looks like he could very well be in Baltimore in the near future.

48 – Garrett Olson: Scouting reports called Olson polished, and he was expected to move quickly through the system. He did just that, reaching the big leagues in July 2007. In 33 starts for the Orioles in 2007 and 2008, he went 10-13 with a 6.87 ERA. This offseason, the Orioles traded him to the Cubs for Felix Pie, and the Cubs then shipped him to the Seattle, where he is pitching respectably as a swingman: 10 appearances, 4 starts, 4.26 ERA, 31.2 IP, 1.39 WHIP. Still, he’s yet to show anywhere near the command that drove this minor league success.

61 – Nolan Reimold: He hit in the NY-Penn League and the Carolina League during his 2005 debut. He hit some more in the Carolina League during 2006. He hit in the Eastern League in 2007. He hit in the Eastern League (again) in 2008. He hit in Norfolk in 2009. And now he’s hitting in Baltimore to the tune of .287/.356/.543 with 7 homers in his first 28 games. Looks set to be the Orioles everyday left fielder for the foreseeable future.

93 – Brandon Erbe: Before injuring his shoulder and hitting the disabled list, Erbe seemed to be poised for a breakout season. As the organization’s fourth best pitching prospect, he was 1-3 with a 0.90 ERA for Bowie, allowing just 11 hits (but 8 walks) in 20.0 IP with 19 strikeouts. As a 20-year old in the Carolina league in 2008, Erbe pitched very well: 150.2 IP, 82 hits, 50 walks, 151 strikeouts.

123 – Kieron Pope: A toolsy outfielder, he spent three seasons in short-season leagues, hasn’t hit and is currently on the minor league disabled list with Delmarva.

483 – David Hernandez: Though he doesn’t possess knock-out stuff, Hernandez has consistently posted very good strikeout rates in his minor league career. He enjoyed a great season in Bowie last year, and was off to another great start in Norfolk in 2009. He made his Major League debut on May 29, picking up the win against Detroit, but was just optioned to the minors. He’ll be back.

873 – Tanner Scheppers: What might have been… Scheppers elected not to sign and instead attended Fresno State. He suffered a stress fracture to his pitching shoulder before the 2008 draft and thus fell into the second round and again chose to not to sign. Last week, he was selected 44th overall by the Texas Rangers. Alas.

2005 Results: One everyday left fielder, a top pitching prospect, a blossoming first-baseman, one pitcher traded for a fallen star prospect, another very useful organization arm, and no major flops from the top picks. Gold stars all around!

2006 Draft

9 – Billy Rowell: After an impressive short-season debut at age 17 and a solid full season debut in 2007, Rowell has disappointed. Scouts have questioned his effort and attitude (not to mention his defense), and he’s since shifted from third base to the outfield. In his second go around at Frederick, he’s hitting just .236/.293/.391. To make matters worse, the following players we selected immediately after him: Tim Lincecum (10), Max Scherzer (11) and Travis Snider (14).

32 – Pedro Beato: Another disappointment, Beato has never posted the sort of strikeout numbers you’d expect from a pick this high. He’s just 4-5 at Frederick this year, posting a 4.57 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 65.0 IP while striking out just 6.2 per nine.

58 – Ryan Adams: A second baseman, Adams posted good numbers at Delmarva in 2008, but at age 21 he was a bit old for the league. He’s in Frederick now, but on the disabled list.

85 – Zach Britton: Britton has improved as he’s advanced through the system, raising his strikeout rate, but his walk rate is a bit higher this year. His ERA looks pretty (1.96), but it masks 13 unearned runs allowed for the Keys. At age 21, this is an important season for Britton as a prospect.

115 – Blake Davis: A shortstop drafted out of national powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, Davis spent the 2008 season in Bowie where he posted a .284/.324/.389 line. Because of injury he’s yet to play for the Tides this season, but does not project as an everyday Major Leaguer.

175 – Jason Berken: Aside from perhaps Britton, it’s up to Berken to redeem the 2006 draft for the Orioles. He was part of that excellent 2008 Baysox rotation, and posted solid numbers this season before being called-up to the big club. He’s getting an extended audition, but considering the rest of the talent behind him, he’s unlikely to play a major role for very long. Still, he is a quality organizational arm and could definitely have value out of the bullpen or as a swingman.

2006 Results: The exact opposite of the 2005 draft. Rowell and Beato haven't developed, the position prospects have almost no chance to make an impact in Baltimore, and one organization-type arm is all the Orioles have to show for their troubles.

2007 Draft

5 – Matt Wieters: I think we know all about this guy.

129 – Tim Bascom: A right-hander out of Central Florida, Bascom just reached Bowie at age 24. After a poor 2008 season at Frederick, he posted only slightly better numbers in the Carolina League this year before his promotion. He’s walking just 2.2 per nine this year, but also only striking out 5.8.

159 – Jake Arrieta: After falling thanks to a mediocre junior season at TCU and questions regarding his bonus demands, Arrieta has validated the Orioles decision to go over slot and meet his asking price. There is no hint of social promotion here, as Arrieta dominated the Carolina League in 2008 and the Eastern League in 2009 to earn his recent call-up to Norfolk. His walks (4.1 per nine) were a bit worrisome in ’08, but he’s greatly improved this year (3.2 per nine), and his strikeout rate is a very attractive 10.5 per nine this year. He and Chris Tillman are on the verge of being the first of the elite arms to reach Baltimore.

189 – Joseph Mahoney: Only the Orioles fourth pick in the top 200 (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker: the gifts that keep on giving!), the big first baseman from the University of Richmond is repeating at Delmarva this season, showing none of the power (one home run in 182 at-bats) the Orioles hoped to see. But he is the biggest base stealer in baseball.

2007 Results: While Wieters has struggled in his Major League debut, he has all the makings of a future star; Arrieta also looks to be a future potential stalwart. Perhaps having just four top 200 picks was a hidden benefit as it allowed the Orioles the budget flexibility to sign Wieters and Arrieta.

2008 Draft

4 – Brian Matusz: While many fans preferred a bit bat like Justin Smoak with last season’s first round pick, Matusz has been as good as advertised. After a bit of a slow start, he’s making his case for a promotion to Bowie; he’s 2-1 with 1.13 ERA (39.2 IP, 5 ER) and 43 strikeouts over his last six starts. Andy MacPhail has stated that Matusz is on the “Wieters Plan,” so expect to see him in Bowie shortly and in Baltimore by the middle of next year. UPDATE: I wrote this yesterday, but just got around to posting today; Matusz was promoted to Bowie yesterday.

50 – Xavier Avery: A speedster who turned down a scholarship to play running back at the University of Georgia, Avery is raw and toolsy. His introduction to full season baseball has gone relatively well, especially after a horrific April, and he’s hitting .294/.335/.398 with 2 home runs and 16 steals in 24 attempts at Delmarva. He’s a long way from the big leagues, but he’s the kind of athlete scouts drool over.

81 – L.J. Hoes: Hoes is another high-upside high school draftee playing with the Shorebirds. He’s hitting .242/.280/.298 this year after posting a .308/.416/.390 line in the Gulf Coast league in his introduction to pro ball.

116 – Kyle Hudson: A speedy outfielder drafted out of the University of Illinois-Champaign, his .272/.342/.300 line at Delmarva fails to impress.

2008 Results: Matusz is on the fast track, but it's tough not to be just a bit jealous of the Rangers, who had Justin Smoak fall into their laps. Avery looks to be making real progress on turning his tools into skills, and Hoes has impact talent as well.

The verdict: The Orioles went above slot to draft top prospects Wieters, Matusz and Arrieta. Jordan's first round selections have been successful (to date, of course), at an 75% success rate, but after the 2005 draft, Jordan’s later round record is much more mixed; Jordan and his staff do earn bonus points, however, for the choosing the pieces returned in the Bedard and Tejada trades (Tillman, Patton, Albers, Sherrill, Jones, etc). Considering the success the Orioles have had in paying to meet the demands of the best available prospects, it’s a bit surprising they didn’t reach for a higher priced pitcher. Still, Hobgood rated very highly on most draft boards and was certainly not a laughable reach. If the Orioles can spend the money saved on a Latin prospect or two, as was rumored last week, then the club could net two top prospects for the price of one. On balance, Jordan and his staff have done an excellent job restocking the Orioles system.
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The Rookies

David Hernandez and Nolan Reimold led the O's to victory tonight. Matt Wieters debuts tomorrow night. It feels good to be an Orioles fan tonight. Get on the 2010 bandwagon while there is still room.
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Optimism

Yesterday, Jason from Ellicott City asked Buster Olney, "Can I get some encouraging words about the Orioles? We used to have the Rays to occupy the East cellar, but now we rot there." Buster responded, "This year will continue to be ugly, but along the way, you'll see Wieters and others, and next year, you'll see the best of the young pitching. That is developing into a great lineup."

Let's put a bit of data behind the assertions regarding the young pitching. Currently in the minors, eight Oriole prospects (to varying degrees) have combined to put up this line: 18-9, 200.2 IP, 2.47 ERA, 210 strikeouts, 149 hits, and 77 walks. Who are those eight pitchers? Brian Matusz (High-A), Troy Patton (AA), Brandon Erbe (AA), Jake Arrieta (AA), Chris Tillman (AAA), Jason Berken (AAA), Rich Hill (AAA) and David Hernandez (AAA). Those eight comprise 7 of the top 9 spots on the prospect rankings, and the other one, Rich Hill is on injury rehab and likely to be in the rotation in a matter of weeks. Throw in the early performances of Matt Wieters (.291/.398/.407 - don't worry about the lack of homers thus far; he's still showing good plate discipline and hitting doubles), Nolan Reimold (.386/.479/.713) and Brandon Snyder (.356/.405/.584) and there is a lot to be excited about down on the farm. Help is on the way, and it is coming quickly.
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Roster Management

One of the most important tasks of any general manager is roster management. Teams need to construct a 25-man roster that fills each defensive position, provides at least one back-up for each defensive position, enough relievers to give the manager flexibility in late game situations and allows for adequate rest. This year, the Orioles are faced with a unique constraint in that they have three pitchers, Rich Hill, Hayden Penn and David Pauley, that are out of minor league options and must be kept on the 25-man roster or exposed to waivers. Unfortunately, this was an entirely avoidable problem, at least for Hayden Penn.

Penn was drafted at age 17 in the 5th round of the 2002 draft. He signed in August and did not make his pro debut until the following season, 2003. As is common for 18-year old Orioles, he debuted at rookie level Bluefield. He posted mediocre numbers in his first professional season, throwing 52 innings, allowing 58 hits and 19 walks while striking out 38. The next year, at age 19, he began the season a low-A Delmarva. Over six starts (13 total appearances), Penn posted more impressive numbers, allowing fewer hits and raising his strikeout rate, but still showing a high walk rate. The Orioles promoted him to high-A Frederick, where he continued his improvement. In 13 starts, Penn threw 73 innings, maintaining a strong strikeout rate and improved hit rate, but also improving his walk rate. Now, most organizations would be thrilled with an 19-year old pitcher succeeding in high-A and allow him to finish his second professional season at that level. But not the Orioles. Instead, the Orioles promoted Penn aggressively, allowing him to make his final four starts at double-A Bowie.

In 2005, at age 20, Penn returned to Bowie and pitched well, but unspectacularly. Over 110.1 innings, Penn compiled a 7-6 record, 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He allowed 101 hits, but struck out 120 batters and walked just 37. Unfortunately, the Orioles then promoted him to Baltimore, after a mere 311.1 minor league innings, and things, not surprisingly, did not go so swimmingly. In 38.1 innings, he struck out just 18, walked 21, allowed 6 home runs and posted a 6.34 ERA. Still, for a 20-year old pitcher, the growing pains were to be expected. The real problem with Penn making his Major League debut in 2005 was that he had to be added to the 40-man roster, and thus would require being optioned to the minor leagues to start 2006.

Penn began the 2006 season at Ottawa, and by May had been called up to Baltimore. Before he could pitch, however, he suffered appendicitis and missed several months. Upon returning, he pitched extremely well at triple-A Ottawa, throwing 88 innings over 14 starts, striking out 85, allowing just 27 walks and 71 hits. As a 21-year old in the International League, he was rightly a top Oriole prospect. Still, his September call-up did not go so hot (19.7 IP, 8 K, 13 BB, 38 hits allowed, 8 home runs allowed, 15.10 ERA).

Then, further injuries in 2007 and 2008 prevented Penn from again pitching for Baltimore. Still, he had to be optioned to the minor leagues each season. 2006, 2007 and 2008. That's three option seasons and now Penn must either be on the 25-man roster or exposed to waivers. Had he simply not been called up--prematurely--in 2005, 2009 could be his third option season. Coupled with the unfortunate Major League contract for Adam Loewen, this is yet another example of poor pitching development from previous Oriole management.

This is a cautionary tale for handling Baltimore's current crop of young pitchers. Tillman has yet to be added to the 40-man roster, and he shouldn't be until as late as necessary; same for Arrieta. Matusz signed a Major League deal last summer, but if he's not pitching in the Majors five seasons from now (refer here for a rundown of the option rules), I think it's safe to say that he'll be considered a bust. Young pitchers are a fickle breed; they can appear ready for the Majors at 21, and still be seeking a return to the Majors two years later. When it's July and the Orioles are in need of a starter for a doubleheader against the Kansas City Royals, let's not push for the promotion of a young pitcher too soon.
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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

Eastern League Awards

In addition to Arrieta, a pair of Bowie Baysox also collected postseason hardware. Lou Montanez picked up the league MVP award, and Brad Bergesen pitcher of the year. While neither is the same caliber of prospect of Arrieta, this is still a feather for the player development cap. Combine the surprisingly inspired play of the major league club with very positive developments in the minor leagues and 2008 can only be considered a whopping success for the Baltimore franchise.

Carolina League Pitcher of the Year

In another sign of just how far the Orioles farm system has come in the past two years, Frederick's Jake Arrieta was named Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. Over 113 1/3 innings, he struck out 120 batters, held opponents to a .199 batting average and compiled a 2.87 ERA. He did, however, walk 51 batters, so there is some cause for concern over his command as he advances to the high minors. Still, as a 22-year old, this was an impressive performance; Arrieta is a legitimate prospect.

No Wieters this September

Dave Trembley, despite professing a desire for another catcher after rosters expand in September, has said we won't be seeing Matt Wieters in Baltimore this September. From MLB.com:

"Matt Wieters will not be coming up here in September," Trembley said. "We've
hopefully put that situation to rest. He'll play in the Arizona Fall League if
that's where we send him. It's his first year as a pro baseball player, above
and beyond everything. There's no reason for him to come up here this September.
There's no reason at this particular point in time to put him on the roster.
He's going to play in the fall league, get ready for Spring Training, and then
we'll go from there."

Wieters is clearly ready for the majors, or at least as ready as playing in the minor leagues can make anyone for the majors. He's had a phenomenal year. Why not reward the future of the franchise--and the player who should be the opening day catcher in 2009--with a call-up to the big leagues? He's earned it.

Cleaning Out the Links

Running down some links still in my RSS reader from the past few days...

• Keith Law breaks down Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
• Peter Gammons reports the Orioles spent the 9th most on draft bonuses.
• The Baltimore Sun has even more on the signing bonuses MacPhail has given out.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus places two Orioles in the Top 50 and names another honorable mention in his Ultimate Fantasy Draft.

Law gives a very positive assessment of Tillman, though he does believe that his command (or lack of it) will keep him from being a true number one. Still, at just 20 years old and with a clean delivery, he could develop that command.

Look at the teams who are also on the top of that list from Gammons: the Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros. The Red Sox, Twins, Rays and Brewers have each reaped significant benefits from spending in the draft, and the Rangers Royals, and Pirates each have relatively new front offices that have placed a priority on rebuilding through the farm system. The Giants and Astros have poor records signing players and developing talent. Aside from those two, that's a great list on the which the Orioles appear, and perhaps the best evidence yet that MacPhail has truly ushered in a new Orioles era.

It's also a great development that the Orioles have shown a willingness to pick the player they deem to be the best talent and not just the player they can sign for a reasonable bonus. Matt Wieters was clearly the best of his draft class, and while the debate will certainly linger over whether the Orioles made the right pick with Matusz over Smoak, he was the first player on their draft board.

Finally, to see Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (another MacPhail acquisition) rated so highly is quite encouraging. But most exciting is that Matt Wieters is the most promising prospect in the minors.

MacPhail on Wieters

The Baltimore Sun had a big article this morning about the debate over whether or not to call up Matt Wieters this September. Andy MacPhail has the money quote:

"I'm of the mind that the most important thing for Matt is to continue to get as
many at-bats and as much experience as he can," Orioles president Andy MacPhail
said recently. "I don't see it likely that we'll bring him up here and have him
sit. That just doesn't make much sense to me. When he comes here, he should
expect to play."

I agree; when he gets to Baltimore, he should be in the lineup everyday. And that should be in September, as soon as the Baysox finish the Eastern League playoffs.

It's Official

Brian Matusz is an Oriole. No terms were disclosed, but it appears that he signed a major league deal which immediately places him on the 40-man roster. Since he signed so late and the deal would require use of an option year for him to join an affiliate this year, he won't be pitching until the fall leagues. Assuming that's the case, he'll need to be on the major league club full-time by 2013 or the Orioles risk losing him to waivers. Considering that he is widely considered very close to the majors already, he would be a huge disappointment if he failed to meet that timeline. Now, wasn't all that angst over whether he would sign a little overdone?

UPDATE: The Sun is reporting that Matusz will get a $3.2 million signing bonus. That seems very reasonable for the fourth pick in the draft.

Signing Day & Waiver Trades

It's Brian Matusz signing day! Assuming the t's are crossed and i's dotted, of course, but with Matusz in town for a physical, that seems very, very likely.

The Sun also has info on Orioles players and their revocable waivers status:

• Aubrey Huff has passed through
• George Sherrill was claimed and pulled back
• Jay Payton passed through
• Kevin Millar passed through
• Jamie Walker passed through

Huff wasn't claimed because he is still owed a significant sum of money and is largely a DH only. That doesn't fit the needs of any AL contender in a competitive race--at this point only Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota. Tampa could probably use another bat, especially with their recent spat of injuries, but they've been down the Aubrey Huff road before and the parting was not amicable. Boston has David Ortiz, Chicago has about four DH's, and while Minnesota could use the bat, they probably wouldn't take the money.

I'm curious to know who claimed Sherrill--the Sun notes it was at least one unnamed AL team--and whether the Orioles attempted to work out a trade or if they pulled Sherrill back without negotiating. Sherrill is under team control for a few more years, so even though he profiles as an aging middle reliever, MacPhail has asked for significant return should he be traded. Depending on just how much he's asking for, I'm not sure I agree with that decision.

As for the others, I don't see any team looking to acquire those sorts of spare parts. Walker hasn't had any success against lefties this year (they have a shocking 1.049 OPS against him), and since he's a LOOGY that means he hasn't really had any success at all this year. Millar and Payton could both be useful to a contender, but since they are playing key roles for this mildly surprising Orioles team, neither is likely to be dealt, even though they have zero long-term value.

Matusz Update

I've been working on a fairly comprehensive post, but until that's ready, it appears the Orioles are close to signing Brian Matusz. It's amazing what a deadline and a few million bucks can accomplish.

That notebook is full of interesting tid bits:

• Nick Markakis frustratingly equates a "successful season" with RBI; RBI are surely a source of pride for a player, but they are extremely overrated by fans when evaluating the merits of individual players
• Bradley Bergesen could be coming to the Majors to start on Saturday, though there are several other candidates to start, including one--Dennis Sarfate--who would be pitching on full rest and is already on the roster
• Chris Ray has begun pitching for the Gulf Coast Orioles; may he pitch well and be ready for Spring Training

MLB Draft

Joe Sheehan has a thought provoking article up today at Baseball Prospectus. I completely agree with assessment of the draft:

The draft is a broken system, one in which Major League Baseball openly and unashamedly restricts the career options of hundreds of young men in order to save itself millions of dollars each year, and everyone nods and smiles. We accept the concept of a draft in sports because it has largely been sold as a mechanism for increasing competitive balance—the worst teams get the highest picks. In fact, drafting high and drafting well are completely different things, as any fan of the Pirates—or, at the other end of the spectrum, the Braves—could tell you. That the draft may help competitive balance in a league is a tertiary factor in its existence. What a draft actually does is keep teams from competing for the services of the best talent on the market, and keeps that talent from having any options when it comes to choosing their employer for their prime earning years. It’s a beautiful system…as long as you’re not a supremely talented baseball player trying to have a career.

As I discussed a few weeks ago, teams pay for talent based on the value they provide to the organization. Sheehan discusses this with, typically, much greater insight and forethought:

What is it to "grossly overpay" the second-best amateur player in the nation? Kevin speculated last week that the end result here would be a $6-8 million major league contract, which would mean an immediate place on the club's 40-man roster. Is that overpaying? What if it were $9 million, or $10 million? What is the value of a 22-year-old third baseman who is expected to be one of the better power hitters in the game—if perhaps at a different position—in short order? What is the value of owning that player’s rights for the next seven, eight, or even 10 years, as he ascends through the minors? What is the value of being able to pay that player near the league minimum for three full seasons, and perhaps the better part of a fourth? What is the value of being able to keep that player off of the free market for talent by paying below-market salaries for three years beyond that? What is the value of never having to compete for the services of a player of that caliber?

It's always popular to bash the drafted player for "unreasonable" demands because they are so "unproven." But, as Joe describes much more eloquently and forcefully than I did, only in sports do we do this:

Engineering firms don’t draft the top engineers and pay them below-market rates... We also wouldn’t tell them they had to work for a lousy firm, or in a city they might hate, far from their families. As a nation, we wouldn’t stand for that kind of thing, but we do in sports. In sports, we’re handing over the prime of players’ careers without ever giving them a chance to find out what they were worth. For many players, the step from amateur to professional is, in fact, the only time in their lives that they will have any leverage at all in their salary, if not their employer or place of work or management team. It is embarrassing to take so much away from them, then complain that they’re not being reasonable when it comes to the one thing that they can negotiate.

So while fans bash Brian Matusz and the other unsigned draft picks for being "greedy" and "only caring about the money," I hope they step back and ask themselves what they would do if they were among the best in the world at their chosen professions and not allowed to sell their skills on the open market. Because I would be asking for every penny possible from the only employer with whom I am allowed to negotiate.

Signing Deadline Looms

The Orioles have until Friday night to sign their first overall selection, Brian Matusz. He is "hopeful" that a deal will get done.

The waiting game is maddening and frustrating, but I predict the Orioles will ultimately get a deal done. Both sides stand to lose too much for a complete failure in the negotiations.

Draft Signing Updates

Kevin Goldstein runs down the entire first round of the 2008 draft, and has the following comments on Brian Matusz:

Negotiations: This is one of those interconnected deals. The Orioles and Matusz have had few productive discussions, because the Matusz side has been watching the talks with involving the ninth overall pick, Aaron Crow. They know that Crow wants a massive deal, and Matusz, as the top pitcher selected, won't settle for a penny less... but what if there's no deal to compare to? OK, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Prediction: A $4-6 million package that includes a major league deal.

Personally, I'm very opposed to giving amateurs Major League deals since, as we saw with Adam Loewen, roster requirements drive development time tables. However, Matusz is widely considered to be a polished arm that is close to the Majors, so a four-year timeline for his inclusion the 25-man roster is probably realistic. If he can't contribute in that time frame, it will be because injuries derailed his progress or he has significantly underperformed expectations. With those considerations, a Major League contract may be a tolerable risk in order for the O's to sign their top draft pick.

Big Night for Wieters

MLB.com has all the details about the big night Matt Wieters turned in yesterday for the Bowie Baysox. The 3-for-3, two home run, six RBI performance brings his Bowie line to .368/.463/.647 with 9 homers and 39 RBI in 133 at-bats over 41 games. Oh, and he also has 26 walks against just 19 strikeouts. Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors; there is no reason that he should not be the opening day starter next season, and thus should receive a September call-up this year. If you can't tell, I'm really looking forward to the Matt Wieters era.