Matt Wieters Facts

On May 29, 2009, Baltimore though the future had arrived when one of baseball's top prospects, complete with is own facts page, made his Major League debut.  Unfortunately, a bit more than a year later, that future still looked bleak.  On June 19, 2010, Matt Wieters completed a third consecutive 0-for-4, dropping his career line to .263/.318/.377 in 625 plate appearances over 158 games.  His 2010 line was a woeful .222/.283/.321, hardly worthy of his survivor-free batting practice sessions.  In a season where nearly everything that could go wrong had gone wrong, Wieters' failures were among the most frustrating for Orioles fans.

Just in case you gave up at that bleakest of moments, I'm here to rekindle your faith.  Here is the line that Matt has posted since June 20: .299/.383/.494 with 19 extra base hits (12 doubles, a triple, and 6 homers), 25 walks and just 26 strike outs in 193 plate appearances.  Small sample size, yes, but for a prospect with his pedigree, these numbers cannot be ignored.  Let's dig a little deeper into Wieters early career.

First and foremost, let's examine Wieters approach at the plate.  In 2009 and the first half of 2010 (which I'll designate herein as ending June 19), Matt was overmatched.  He struck out in 22.1% of his plate appearances, and walked about one third as much (7.4%).  When he did make contact, it usually wasn't very authoritative; he knocked extra base hits in just 5.9% of his plate appearances.  FanGraphs doesn't break out plate discipline numbers intra-season (at least, I don't know how to do that), but in 2009, Wieters swung at 70.2% of pitches  in the strike zone (above the league average of 66.0%), and he made contact on just 83.4% of those swings (below the league average of 87.8%).  Combined, Matt was swinging at at 47.2% of the pitches he saw, 190 basis points over the league average rate of 45.3%.

Now, though, Wieters doesn't look anything like the same hitter.  He's lowered his strike out percentage markedly (13.5% since June 20), and raised his walk rate to nearly match it (13.0%).  The contact he makes is much more solid: 9.8% of the time he's poked an extra base hit.  Even his full 2010 plate discipline numbers have improved.  His in the strike zone swing percentage has dipped (to 60.7%; league average is 64.4%), and he's making contact at above average rates (91.5% of the time in the strike zone; league average is 88.2%).  Rather than swinging more than most hitters, Matt is now more selective, swinging 43.2% of the time (below the league average of 45.6%).

Wieters' full 2010 season line is also a bit deceiving in that he is likely the victim of a bit of bad luck in the BABIP department.  Plugging in his 2010 season totals, I calculate his xBABIP as .318.  Adjusting his line (by adding 9 singles and 2 doubles) to reflect these additional 0.028 BABIP points turns him into a .283/.353/.429 hitter for the season.  Importantly, his hot streak since June 20 has been built on the back of a .316 BABIP, a number right in line with his career total and his xBABIP calculation.

So, what's the takeaway?  Well, it sure looks to me like Matt Wieters has successfully adjusted to Major League pitching.  He's striking out less, walking more, and being more selective at the plate.  His recent hot streak is absolutely not driven by luck in the BABIP department.  Combined with his prospect pedigree, there is every indication that this turnaround is real.  The Orioles now have the stud catcher we were all expecting.

Terry Crowley, OBP, and Home Runs

Among the many things that have gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Orioles this spring, one of the most disappointing has been the dismal performance of the offense.  Understandably, many are calling for change at the position of hitting coach.  Kevin Cowherd somehow "doesn't get it," and Dave Mc responds:

When [Crowley] took over as hitting coach before the 1999 season, it was a different era. Without making judgments, lets just say it was an era in which power was the dominant aspect of offense...

It seems more likely that Crowley is still employing the same hitting philosophies that worked a decade ago.

Just one problem: the Orioles don't hit with power!  In fact, I think you can make a pretty good case that Crowley's philosophies have actually stunted power development from a number of Orioles young hitters.  Let's look at some numbers.

1) Nick Markakis hit 23 homers as a 23-year old in 2007.  He then hit 20 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and has just two this season.
2) Matt Wieters hit a home run once every 18 at-bats in the minors.  He has hit a homer once every 37 at-bats in the majors.
3) Adam Jones goes deep about once every 36 at-bats for the Orioles.  In his final two AAA seasons (at ages 20 and 21), he homered every 21.5 at-bats.

To be fair, the Orioles haven't had a lot of highly touted prospects over the last decade, but a few other young hitters that have failed to develop on Crowley's watch include Ryan Minor, Larry Bigbie, Jerry Hairston, and Gary Matthews, Jr.  About the only successes we can really count are Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis and (gulp) Jay Gibbons.

This team's (lack of a good) hitting approach drives me absolutely nuts; just give me quality at-bats, swings at pitches in the strike zone, and the indication that hitters have some idea of what they're doing when they go to plate.  Instead, I get to watch Tejada ground into double plays on the first pitch, Cesar Izturis waive his wet noodle, and Garrett Atkins look mind-numbingly older than 30.  Now, not all of that is the hitting coach's doing.  Tejada has always been hacktastic, Izturis an awful hitter, and I'm pretty sure Garrett Atkins is finished as a Major League ballplayer.  No, what really makes me mad is when I see no progress from Adam Jones or Matt Wieters, or when I read stories in the Sun hinting that Nick Markakis needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Maybe Crowley really is doing a great job, and without his tutelage the O's offense would be even worse.  Maybe firing the hitting coach would be a symbolic gesture that wouldn't have any effect on the offense.  Or maybe Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold need a fresh voice in order to get their careers back on track.  In the wake of such a disappointing start and regression from so many of the highly touted hitters, I hope the organization is taking a hard look at the coaching staff.  Because I don't think this one is capable of effecting any on-field improvement.

Score

For the record, I'm an idiot. It is 1-1. And make it 3-1. Matt! Wieters!
_____________________________

A double...

For Wieters. Yeah, I think this kid can hit a little bit.
________________________________________

First Hit!

Matt Wieters just recorded his first Major League hit (a triple!!!). After Wieters' big hit, Nolan Reimold drove him in. Now that's a sentence I hope to type quite a few times over the next few years.
________________________________________

My Dog...

Is excited for Matt Wieters Day, too!
_________________________________________

One At-Bat...

Two outs. Not quite why we gave a standing ovation, but get 'em next time, Matt.
_________________________________________

It's Wieters Time!

He's really here!
___________________________________________

Matt Wieters Day (contd)

Wow! There is really loud rumbling outside! Matt must be taking batting practice!!!

Wait.... I've just been informed by the meteorologists that the loud noises are apparently claps of thunder, not Matt's batting practice. I'm skeptical of their conclusion.
__________________________________

More on Matt Wieters Day...

I'm a little bit excited...

@keithlaw: "Do you think the Orioles' front-office people are all dressed up for Wieters Day? Balloons and party hats? Top hats and tails?"

I know what they aren't wearing: Matt Wieters t-shirts, which are still inexplicably unavailable. They better have them at the stadium tonight.
____________________________________

Happy Matt Wieters Day!

Update: Check out the comments over at Baseball Think Factory, especially # 11 - Great Events in History for May 29.
_______________________________________

"It's Time."

I'm kind of excited about this.

"He's ready. It's time." - Andy MacPhail
__________________________________

And so it begins...

The past week has been a rough one for the Orioles pitching staff. Dating to last Sunday, the staff has allowed 60 runs in just six games. Needless to say, the natives are getting restless. But this morning's paper brought some good news: Brad Bergesen will start on Tuesday, in Baltimore, against the White Sox.

Unfortunately, that same notebook has news that Matt Wieters left Friday night's game with a mild hamstring strain. He's likely to miss a few games; let's hope he has a speedy recovery, but also that the Orioles don't take any chances on this one.
__________________________

Matt Wieters: The AAA Experience

A special thanks to Baseball America...

An inauspicious start as Wieters strikes out in his first at-bat. He atones quickly, however, gunning down Rays prospect Reid Brignac with a 1.91 pop time. For the Yankees today, Molina threw a nice pop to nab Felix Pie, but I didn't have my stopwatch out. Anyone seen the replay and timed that one?

In his second at-bat, Wieters lined out to a leaping second baseman. In other news Brad Bergesen seems to be pitching well, striking out six, allowing one earned run (two total) and just one walk and four hits through 5.0. He's not a hard-thrower, sitting at about 88-89 mph, so command is critical for him.

Update: Wieters just walked on five pitches in his third at-bat of the night.

Update II: Wieters struck out in his final at-bat, but Nolan Reimold homered to give the Tides their only run of the night. Elsewhere around the minors, both Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz pitched tonight. Arrieta threw 4.0 shutout innings for the Baysox against Akron, striking out eight, walking two and allowing just one hit. Matusz, in his professional debut, threw 6.0 innings, allowing two earned runs while striking out six, walking two, and giving up five hits. He is line for the victory if the Keys hold a 5-3 lead over Salem in the 9th. A pretty good night for your 2010 Baltimore Orioles.
____________________________

Norfolk Season Opener

If you're interested in the Norfolk season opener (I hear Norfolk has some hot prospect behind the plate), the Baseball America Prospects Blog is offering live updates. Brad Bergesen is set to pitch for the Tides against the Durham Bulls; David Price will throw tomorrow.
______________________________

Matt Wieters

I'm finally getting my Google Reader cleaned out from a few long weeks of slacking due to college basketball, family visits, 10k runs, exams, group projects and the like. And I learned the most amazing things. Did you know that Matt Wieters can bend steel with his mind, and that his tears turn into diamonds? Well, it's true.
____________________________

Phenom in the Making

When I opened up my Google Reader this morning I was greeted with a recap of yesterday's Spring Training game that began "Phenom in the making Matt Wieters..." Glad to see that MLB.com is on the man-crushing, too.

And don't look now, but Brian Matusz is making his presence felt in camp, too. Some observers think he could be a part of the O's rotation by the end of the year. I think MacPhail will be cautious, but he is obviously a great talent and could force the club's hand sooner than expected.
__________________________________________

Dog Days

The Super Bowl has passed, March Madness is still a month away, and pitchers and catchers won't report for another ten days. The Dog Days of February are here. But that doesn't mean we have nothing to talk about. On the contrary, the Orioles have been all over the baseball-related interwebs lately.

To begin with, Baseball Prospectus gives the Orioles favorable reviews on the Rich Hill and Ty Wigginton deals, and Fangraphs agrees. Hill, at the cost of Brian Burres' roster spot and a player to be named later, represents only upside. Granted, he is highly unlikely to reach that upside, but the Orioles have had good luck recently with another fallen star pitcher, and Hill is worth the risk. Wiggington, too, is a solid investment. Though unlikely to offer much upside, a two-year, $6 million deal for a player than can nominally play third base, first base, and the outfield and offer a bit of offense seems like a reasonable deal, especially since that player is a career .288/.364/.514 hitter against left-handed pitching. If used in a platoon role with some combination of Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff, and Felix Pie, he has the opportunity to provide lots of value.

More exciting here in the land of man crush has been the discussion regarding Matt Wieters. As Fangraphs points out, Wieters is really, really good. And Baseball Prospectus gets in on the action, too, pointing out that his PECOTA projections have him down to be the top-rated catcher in baseball. This season. Right now. Ahead of guys named Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, and Russell Martin. I'm making my Cooperstown 2030 reservations now.

Finally, BP also put out its Orioles Top 11 prospects recently, and they use words like "incredible pitching depth" and "makings of one of the best rotations in the game." As we all know, there are no guarantees with young pitching, but the Orioles are well on their way to being relevant again, and that's exciting.

No Wieters this September

Dave Trembley, despite professing a desire for another catcher after rosters expand in September, has said we won't be seeing Matt Wieters in Baltimore this September. From MLB.com:

"Matt Wieters will not be coming up here in September," Trembley said. "We've
hopefully put that situation to rest. He'll play in the Arizona Fall League if
that's where we send him. It's his first year as a pro baseball player, above
and beyond everything. There's no reason for him to come up here this September.
There's no reason at this particular point in time to put him on the roster.
He's going to play in the fall league, get ready for Spring Training, and then
we'll go from there."

Wieters is clearly ready for the majors, or at least as ready as playing in the minor leagues can make anyone for the majors. He's had a phenomenal year. Why not reward the future of the franchise--and the player who should be the opening day catcher in 2009--with a call-up to the big leagues? He's earned it.

Cleaning Out the Links

Running down some links still in my RSS reader from the past few days...

• Keith Law breaks down Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
• Peter Gammons reports the Orioles spent the 9th most on draft bonuses.
• The Baltimore Sun has even more on the signing bonuses MacPhail has given out.
• Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus places two Orioles in the Top 50 and names another honorable mention in his Ultimate Fantasy Draft.

Law gives a very positive assessment of Tillman, though he does believe that his command (or lack of it) will keep him from being a true number one. Still, at just 20 years old and with a clean delivery, he could develop that command.

Look at the teams who are also on the top of that list from Gammons: the Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros. The Red Sox, Twins, Rays and Brewers have each reaped significant benefits from spending in the draft, and the Rangers Royals, and Pirates each have relatively new front offices that have placed a priority on rebuilding through the farm system. The Giants and Astros have poor records signing players and developing talent. Aside from those two, that's a great list on the which the Orioles appear, and perhaps the best evidence yet that MacPhail has truly ushered in a new Orioles era.

It's also a great development that the Orioles have shown a willingness to pick the player they deem to be the best talent and not just the player they can sign for a reasonable bonus. Matt Wieters was clearly the best of his draft class, and while the debate will certainly linger over whether the Orioles made the right pick with Matusz over Smoak, he was the first player on their draft board.

Finally, to see Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (another MacPhail acquisition) rated so highly is quite encouraging. But most exciting is that Matt Wieters is the most promising prospect in the minors.