David Hernandez and The Rotation

With Chris Tillman (3.43 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 1.86 BB/9) and Jake Arrieta (3.87 FIP, 7.47 K/9, 4.58 BB/9) both pitching well in Norfolk and David Hernandez (42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 1.58 WHIP - virtually identical to the numbers he posted last season) again struggling in Baltimore, speculation is understandably ripe that one of the hot young arms will soon usurp Hernandez's spot in the rotation.  Fortunately for Hernandez, he "saved" his rotation spot last night by throwing 105 pitches (59 for strikes) across 5.1 IP, allowing one hit and one run while striking out three and walking five.  Huh?  That's the performance that saved his rotation spot?

Let's do a thought experiment.  Suppose you are Andy MacPhail and you truly believe that either Arrieta or Tillman (it doesn't matter which, or if it is both) is just biding his time in Norfolk waiting for one of the five starters for the O's to pitch his way out of the rotation.  The fifth starter you selected on the basis of a very strong spring training has really struggled, and he's now 150 innings into his Major League career and has yet to show that he's more than a useful arm for the bullpen or a spot starter, an opinion held by many scouts throughout the player's minor league career.  Now, this fifth starter just had an outing remarkably similar to the ones he's had the rest of the season: he struggled to throw strikes, he gave up nearly twice as many fly balls as ground balls, and he didn't strike many batters out.  Are you going to change your opinion of him on the basis of his most recent outing?

I would like to see either Tillman or Arrieta as much as the next O's fan, and I still think that David Hernandez could have a solid career as a bullpen arm.  However, there are very good reasons for both Tillman and Arrieta to spend a bit more time in Norfolk.  Tillman has added a new pitch to his repertoire this spring, and Arrieta is clearly walking too many people.  For both, service time and arbitration eligibility could potentially be deciding factors, but I personally wouldn't worry too much about that for young pitchers (the risk of injury is too great, and current research is having a difficult time finding a reliable aging curve for pitchers; better to have Major League ready arms pitching in the Major Leagues).

One day in the coming weeks, Hernandez is likely to relinquish his rotation spot and O's fans will get to see another one of the arms of the future.  In the meantime, though, let's not kid ourselves that 5.1 mediocre innings have a meaningful impact on when that day will be.

More on Tillman

This tweet arrived on my BlackBerry this morning, and it gives an indication as to why Chris Tillman is headed for Norfolk instead of Baltimore next week:

Tillman: "If I were 2 stick w/ my fastball, change, curve it woulda been a totally different outcome, results-wise." worked on cutter instead

Now, the immediate reaction might be to say "Well, that's dumb. If you want to make the team, you need to try and pitch your best." However, over the long run, Tillman is likely to be a better pitcher if he can master the cutter. Should a 22-year old prospect on a team staring up at what might well be the three best teams in baseball work on his cutter and risk starting the year in Norfolk, or should he try get outs any way possible? Yeah, I'm voting for the former. I hope the team has communicated to him, though, that his promotion depends not on "outcomes" but on his progression in mastering the cutter and the strike zone. We know that he can get AAA hitters out with his three traditional pitches, and if that's his focus in April, he'll likely do so again. Still, this is just another reason that we should all take spring training results and statistics with a giant mine of salt, and one more indication that his starting the year in Norfolk is far from the end of the world.
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Chris Tillman

There has been a bit of a kerfuffle over the past few days as news broke that David Hernandez may break camp as the Orioles 5th starter while Chris Tillman begins 2010 in Norfolk. I have no problem with this. Here are some reasons, but they all surround two facts: David Hernandez will pitch 2010 at age 25; Tillman at age 22.

1) Tillman threw 161.2 IP across AAA and MLB last season after throwing 135.2 in AA in 2009. That's an increase of nearly 20%, and a corresponding increase for 2010 would bring Tillman to 193 IP. I sincerely doubt the Orioles will allow him so many innings; much more likely his target is 175 to 180 IP. Managing his ability to reach that target is much easier if he spends a few weeks in the minor leagues, where pushing his start back a day or lifting him in the sixth inning is much more justifiable.
2) Hernandez, by virtue of being older, will likely have a less stringent innings constraint. By virtue of passing the "injury nexus," the Orioles can push him a bit harder.
3) Since Hernandez is older, he also is more likely to be close to a finished product. If he pitches poorly as a starter this season, the Orioles can move him to the bullpen without wondering what might have been.
4) If Hernandez succeeds as a starter, then the Orioles have a further flexibility with Tillman. He could replace an injured or ineffective pitcher (and someone will get injured), he could piggyback with Matusz if necessary to manage workloads, or he could be used out of the bullpen.
5) If Hernandez does not succeed, then the original plan (Tillman in the rotation, Hernandez in the bullpen) can still easily be implemented.

While I'm obviously disappointed that Tillman has not pitched well enough this spring to win the job outright, I am far from lamenting this development. We all know that young pitchers do not develop in a straight line. That the Orioles can suffer a set-back and still have five viable starters is a big change from years past. That this is the debate we're having less than two weeks until Opening Day is a good sign.
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It's Tillman Time!

This is the moment O's fans have been waiting for since... 1991 when Mike Mussina debuted? When was the last time the O's had a pitching prospect this touted? Regardless, I'll be live blogging Chris Tillman's debut tonight. We're finally getting our first glimpse at the pitching talent that has me so excited, and I wish I could be at the ballpark. Alas, I'll be sitting on the couch and bringing you my thoughts live! Check back frequently for updates.

7:07 PM: I'm sipping my Clipper City Heavy Seas Loose Cannon from my Sports Legends glass, reflecting on the symbolism in Chris Tillman wearing #54 and anxiously awaiting the first pitch... and here comes the tarp. Let's hope this isn't symbolic, too.

7:48 PM: And we're back! First pitch strike. 92 mph fastball.

7:49 PM: DeJesus gave one a ride to center, but Adam Jones ran it down and makes a fantastic catch over his shoulder in deep center. I like watching him play center field.

7:53 PM: That was a great change-up to Butler to put Tillman ahead 0-2. Tillman then induces a sinking liner to shortstop, and Tillman's first inning is in the books. He threw nearly all fastballs between 92 and 95 mph, and that one devastating change-up at 82 mph. So far, so good.

8:02 PM: Adam Jones just turned in a great at-bat, making a nice adjustment to Greinke's slider early in the at-bat and then fouling off some impressive offerings before driving a homer into the seats in left center. I don't know how he got the barrel on that pitch, much less hit it for a homer. Did I mention I like watching him hit, too?

8:04 PM: Markakis follows up with a double off the left-field wall. If Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold followed, my head might explode.

8:09 PM: Reimold just turned in a high quality at-bat, drawing a full count walk. He's not going to be a star, but Reimold's emergence is one of most important developments of this season. He is exactly the type of hitter good organizations produce on a regular basis.

8:12 PM: Ty Wiggington lofted a soft fly ball to right field for the second out of the inning, but Nick Markakis shows some heads up baserunning (shocking for the O's, I know). Bloomquist held the ball just a bit too long, and Markakis moved up to third base. This first inning has featured a nice catch in center field from Adam Jones, a 1-2-3 inning from Tillman, a lead-off single from Brian Roberts, a home run from Adam Jones, and double from Nick Markakis, a quality at-bat from Nolan Reimold and now heads up baserunning from Markakis. Yeah, the future is bright.

8:17 PM: Unfortunately, Greg Zaun strikes out with the bases loaded to end the inning. Not gonna lie, I would have liked to see the full youth movement tonight with Matt Wieters behind the plate. Still, the O's made Greinke throw 34 pitches in the first.

8:33 PM: I'm a bit late here (love DVR), but Tillman just gave up his first major league hit, run and home run. His fastball to Callaspo caught a whole lot of the plate and ended up on Eutaw Street. He bounces back with an easy strike out of Mike Jacobs. Unfortunately, I know he'll give a home run next, too.

8:37 PM: Some quick fast forwarding catches right back up to live TV. DeJesus hit one to the wall in left that Nolan Reimold tracked down for the first out in the top of the third. It looks like the ball is really carrying tonight; that's twice DeJesus has hit one that carried much farther than it looks like it should have.

8:43 PM: Tillman's change-up has some serious fade to it. He's thrown a few nice ones to Butler tonight, and now another to Teahen. With the 10+ mph separation between his fastball and change-up, it can be a real weapon for him. So can a high fastball you blow by hitters, just like the one Teahen just waved at on which Bloomquist was caught stealing.

9:09 PM: Tillman gave up another homer, this time to Mike Jacobs on a hanging breaking ball. He's basically made three bad pitches tonight, each of which was smacked for a long ball. Welcome to the Big Leagues.

9:30 PM: Trembley tried to get Tillman through five innings, but instead pulls him with runners on the corners and two outs in the 5th. Not a great outing, but he definitely flashed the ability that makes him a top prospect: a fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s, an impressive change-up and the makings of a good curveball. I'm already looking forward to his next start. And, with that, I'm signing off the blog for tonight.
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Over the Hill

Rich Hill turned in another poor start last night, yielding 5 ER in 3+ innings pitched while allowing 3 hits and 4 walks. As the Sun speculates this morning, and as we speculated last night at the bar while watching the game, his time in the rotation--and on the ballclub--could be up. It's now official: the Chris Tillman rumblings have become a full blown roar. Could we see him in Baltimore soon?

Tillman is scheduled to pitch tonight at Gwinnett, and Jason Berken will pitch for the O's in New York. The Orioles then have an off-day before visiting the Red Sox this weekend and hosting the Royals starting Monday. Here's how the O's rotation currently aligns:

Tonight: Jason Berken
Friday: Brad Bergesen
Saturday: TBA
Sunday: David Hernandez
Monday: Rich Hill

That TBA should be Jeremy Guthrie, assuming he bounces back from his last outing when he threw 108 pitches while still battling the lingering effects of a viral infection. It does, however, raise the intriguing possibility of bumping Tillman from his start tonight and flying him to Boston for his Major League debut on Saturday. Even if Tillman pitches tonight for Norfolk, however, he's lined up perfectly to take Hill's slot in the rotation on Monday. Given that evidence, I really think we've seen the last of Rich Hill in the rotation and the only question becomes whether or not he moves to the bullpen or is designated for assignment. The Orioles are already carrying a dozen pitchers, so moving Hill to the bullpen would necessitate another pitching move. Unless MacPhail can move Sherrill or Baez or is willing to part ways with the surprisingly effective Mark Hendrickson, I don't see how the roster can accomodate Hill moving to the bullpen. As much as it pains me to write this, it's time for the O's to give up on the Rich Hill experiment. If he's going to recapture the glory, it will have to be with another club.
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Chris Tillman

The Baseball America Prospects Blog has a good profile of Chris Tillman today, highlighting the work he's done to improve his change-up.

"He’s really made the effort to improve his changeup this spring," Schmidt said.
"He, on his own, he threw it sometimes in some games exclusively, not throwing
his curveball, just throwing fastballs and changeups. When you do that, you
commit to making the pitch better, and he’s made a lot of progress with it, so
we’re really happy with adding that third pitch and becoming confident in it.

Tillman, just 21 years old, is one of the best reasons to be excited about the Orioles future. Adam Jones alone makes the Bedard deal look like a smart one; Tillman makes it a steal.
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