Nolan Reimold Goes to Norfolk

One of this spring's most intriguing roster battles was over the 4th outfielder spot between Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. In reality, however, the decision was a no brainer: Pie, capable of playing center field and out of options, won the job over Reimold despite Nolan's much better offensive performance this spring. Reimold's fate was likely sealed the day Vlad inked his $8mm deal to wear the black and orange, cementing Luke Scott, Derek Lee, and Vlad into the LF, 1B, and DH slots for the Opening Day roster. This has been a point of contention for many observers that would prefer to see Reimold get his everyday at-bats in Baltimore instead of Norfolk. While I agree that signing Vlad was a poor decision by the organization, I'm not especially worried that Reimold will miss out on much valuable development time in 2011, for several reasons.

First, Nolan was pretty terrible last year. He hit .207/.282/.328 in 131 MLB plate appearances and .249/.364/.374 across 401 for the Tides. Of course, his poor performance may well have been due to lingering effects from his 2009 Achilles surgery; the solid plate discipline figures and lack of power are certainly consistent with that story. He has looked better in Spring Training this year, but nothing in his performance last year suggests he should have been handed a Major League job this spring.

Next, I fear that Nolan Reimold has become a bit overrated. In 2009, he hit .279/.365/.466 in 411 MLB plate appearances, good for a 118 wRC+ (wOBA+ adjusted for league and park). Among MLB leftfielders with at least 300 plate appearances, that was good for a tie for 18th. That's a nice line and guy you're happy to have in the lineup, but the bar for being an above average hitter in left or at first base is set really high. For 2011, ZiPS has Reimold projected for a 103 wRC+, well below average for the position. Even in 2009, Reimold was good for just 1.2 WAR in 104 games, or about 1.8 per 150 games. Given his minor league numbers, a repeat of his 2009 season is probably on the slightly optimistic side of likely. At 27, there's likely not much more development left; he is what he is.

Finally, as the 2010 Orioles showed, depth is a good thing for an organization to have. What are the chances that Luke Scott (128 games in 2009, 131 games in 2010), Vladimir Guerrero (100, 152), Adam Jones (119, 149) and Derek Lee (141, 148) all avoid the DL? I'm guessing they aren't very high. What if Luke Scott really struggles against lefties (.325 career OBP)? Do I think the Orioles should have signed Vlad? No. But given the very high level of uncertainty surrounding Reimold's abilities and health, bringing in another player for LF, 1B or DH was not at all unreasonable; unfortunately, that player should have been someone eminently able to be cut or sent to Norfolk if Reimold proved his health this spring.

Still, I think that if Reimold heads to Norfolk, proves he's healthy and has rekindled his power stroke, he won't be in AAA for long. Whether it's because of an injury in Baltimore, a desire to evaluate at the MLB level, or even if he just forces the club's hand, there are plenty of at-bats to go around. Days off, platoons, injuries; for left field, first base, and DH, there will be about 2,000 plate appearances this year, and they can be filled many different ways. I wouldn't be surprised if Nolan Reimold gets four or five hundred of them.

Shhh...

Don't look now but Nolan Reimold is hitting .327/.500/.500 in August with 16 walks and 9 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances.  His July slash line (.235/.361/.382 driven by a .238 BABIP) isn't much to write home about, but he walked 18 times (against 14 strikeouts) in 122 plate appearances.  The power doesn't look to be all the way back after his season ending injury from last year, but he sure does bring a good approach to the plate.  I'm looking forward to seeing him come back to Baltimore (and play a little first base!) this September.

Corey Patterson Update

Well, it looks like CP is on his way.  The only question is who goes and who stays: Lou Montanez or Nolan Reimold?

Montanez is, at very best, a 4th outfielder.  He doesn't play exceptionally good defense, he doesn't hit very well, and he's not very versatile.  Other than that, he brings lots of value.  Roster-wise, it makes the most sense to send him back to Norfolk for Patterson (who at least is capable of playing solid defense at all three outfield positions).

Reimold, though, is really struggling.  He's hitting just .205/.302/.337, and he has made several defensive miscues in the past few games.  However, he has hit safely in five out of his last six games and he remains one of the few players willing to accept a base on balls (walk rate: 11.5%; Reimold, Markakis, Scott and Wieters are the only regulars with a walk rate above 8.0%).  Assuming that he's healthy (a big assumption), Reimold needs to continue to play every day.  His track record suggests that he is a much better hitter than he's currently showing, and he will likely turn things around eventually.

Thus, the question becomes what the team plans to do with Patterson once he arrives: will he platoon in left field with Reimold?  Will he get nearly all the left field at-bats, at least in the near term?  Or is he up just to provide some more bench value than Montanez?  If Reimold won't be getting regular playing time, I'd prefer that he head back to Norfolk to work through his funk.  While he's there, I'd love for him to break out that first baseman's mitt again, too.  I'm not sure who started the meme that Reimold really is better than Pie in left, but that is clearly not true.  If he's going back to Norfolk, he might as well learn a new position while he's there.  And maybe, just maybe, when he comes back up he can replace Garrett Atkins.

Corner Infield

This from John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus:

The Orioles are targeting Joe Crede, Tejada, and Hank Blalock as free
agents to play third base now that LaRoche has been signed; Garrett Atkins would
be shifted to first base. Another idea the Orioles are kicking around is moving
left fielder Nolan Reimold to first base and playing Felix Pie in left.

Hey, that sounds like a familiar idea!
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Annals of Ridiculous Statements

Top of the 1st, Nolan Reimold has just doubled over B.J. Upton's head and Buck Martinez says this:
"There are a lot of players around baseball, some of them in the Hall of Fame, that play much better in the big leagues than they ever played in the minor leagues. George Brett comes to mind as a guy that never hit .300 in the minor leagues and ends up with career 3,000 hits. I think Nolan Reimold is going to be one of those players that plays much better in the big leagues than he ever did in the minors."

1) George Brett debuted in the Majors at age 20, and won a Rookie of the Year award at age 21. I'm not sure he's really a valid comparison for the 25-year old Reimold.
2) In what world did Nolan Reimold not play well in the minor leagues? He hit at every level, if you ask me. Or the numbers.
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When can the Orioles compete?

Childs Walker today, writing for the Toy Department, makes the claim that the Orioles "have to think about what would be best in 2011-2013, not what's best now." I think he has the concept right, but the timeline wrong. As I wrote in the comments:

I agree that the pitching would have to develop quickly, but I disagree that this is highly unlikely (at least in terms of the relative likeliness of any pitching developing). Bergesen is here, and Hernandez probably isn't far behind. Matusz is probably on the Wieters timeline, but he was regarded last summer as someone who should reach the big leagues quickly (as in potentially in 2009). Tillman is in AAA, and while he still has a ways to go, he's not exactly far off. Arrieta is off to a solid start in Bowie, and so is Brandon Erbe. Other than Matusz, all of these guys have had success in full season leagues, and all have reached the upper levels of the system. Is 2010 a dream? Sure. But is it unrealistic to expect that next year's rotation will be filled with four of those guys listed above? Definitely not. And when that's the case, the window for contention is open.

Now, we all know about the difficulty in developing pitching. There will be bumps and bruises and Tommy Johns along the way, which is part of why I omitted Troy Patton completely. But think about that list: Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brian Matusz and Troy Patton. Those are seven arms about whom Orioles fans have legitimate reasons to expect valuable Major League contributions. Will all of them reach their potential? Highly unlikely. But could a few of them be ready for Baltimore in 2010? I don't see why not. And that's why I'm willing to define the Orioles window for contention as beginning in 2010.

Walker's post begins with a discussion about the fate of Nolan Reimold. Here are The Nest, I'm a big fan of Nolan Reimold. He's a potential power bat, but also someone who plays a position (leftfield) at which the Orioles have a surplus of serviceable players (Pie, Scott, Freel, Montanez). I have absolutely no problem with the Orioles allowing Felix Pie to play everyday. No, he hasn't done much so far (.212/.276/.316 so far in 329 career plate appearances), but Brian Roberts, over 441 plate appearances in his age 23 and 24 seasons, hit .253/.284/.341 and .227/.308/.297 and that seemed to work out OK. Pie is a talented athlete, and when you consider his minor league track record, he deserves a shot to prove himself in the Majors. Unfortunately, so does Nolan Reimold. What to do?

One solution would be to allow Reimold to play every day in Norfolk and promote if and when there is an injury to Pie, Huff or Scott. I believe that it is far better if he gets four or five plate appearances per game in Norfolk than if he plays once or twice a week in Baltimore. Could Reimold play a bit of first base? Now would be a good time to find out. Then, he could provide the right-handed part of a platoon among LF, 1B and DH. Regardless, if he continues to hit in Norfolk, he's going to force the Orioles hand at some point. Scott is not part of the long-term plans for this club, and he could be moved for a useful part to free up at-bats. Having too many players for too few positions is something very new for the Orioles, and it's not a bad problem to have.
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Matt Wieters: The AAA Experience

A special thanks to Baseball America...

An inauspicious start as Wieters strikes out in his first at-bat. He atones quickly, however, gunning down Rays prospect Reid Brignac with a 1.91 pop time. For the Yankees today, Molina threw a nice pop to nab Felix Pie, but I didn't have my stopwatch out. Anyone seen the replay and timed that one?

In his second at-bat, Wieters lined out to a leaping second baseman. In other news Brad Bergesen seems to be pitching well, striking out six, allowing one earned run (two total) and just one walk and four hits through 5.0. He's not a hard-thrower, sitting at about 88-89 mph, so command is critical for him.

Update: Wieters just walked on five pitches in his third at-bat of the night.

Update II: Wieters struck out in his final at-bat, but Nolan Reimold homered to give the Tides their only run of the night. Elsewhere around the minors, both Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz pitched tonight. Arrieta threw 4.0 shutout innings for the Baysox against Akron, striking out eight, walking two and allowing just one hit. Matusz, in his professional debut, threw 6.0 innings, allowing two earned runs while striking out six, walking two, and giving up five hits. He is line for the victory if the Keys hold a 5-3 lead over Salem in the 9th. A pretty good night for your 2010 Baltimore Orioles.
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