Shortstop

The Orioles need a shortstop.  Cesar Izturis is a free agent, and there are no viable internal options (sorry, Mr. Andino).  The Orioles could potentially resign Izturis, but his bat has deteriorated so incredibly far that even excellent defense leaves him below replacement level (-34 batting runs brought him to -0.4 fWAR in 2010).  The options on the free agent market are also extremely thin.  There is, however, one intriguing (potential) option: Hiroyuki Nakajima.  There is no guarantee that he will be posted this off season, and there are certainly questions over how well he would make the transition to MLB, but given the dearth of domestic options, this is one import the Orioles would do well to give a long, hard look.  Could signing Koji two years ago have also helped address the shortstop position?

Shortstop

One of the few bright spots defensively for the Orioles in 2009 was shortstop Cesar Izturis. Signed
for $6 million over 2-years last offseason, Izturis returned nearly the value of the whole contract last season, posting a 1.3 WAR, worth $5.8 million according to FanGraphs. Chalk up a big win for MacPhail.

Still, Izturis, who will play 2010 at age 30, is not a long-term solution for the position. He is a pretty terrible hitter (his .256/.294/.328 mirrors perfectly his career numbers), and he's starting to get old. He's a fine option for 2010, but I'm sure the Orioles would love to have a younger option that could provide some more offensive punch for the long-term. This winter's trade market may provide one such option.

In 2007 and 2008, J.J. Hardy was one of the best shortstops in baseball. He hit; he played defense; he was a star. But in 2009, the bottom fell out for his hitting and he posted a .229/.302/.357 line--not so different from Cesar Izturis. His defense, though, remained stellar. In fact, FanGraphs rates him as the 3rd best defender over the 2007 to 2009 period. As noted in that article, the Brewers installed rookie Alcides Escobar at shortstop last season, perhaps making Hardy expendable. Should the Orioles take a look?

He's three years younger than Izturis, and plays defense just as well, but is a bit more expensive. Hardy earned $4.65 million in 2009, would be arbitration eligible for next season, and is slated to be a free agent after the 2010 season (according to Cot's; I'm not sure about that. Given that he was sent to the minors for a part of this season, I think that his free agency will be delayed by a year). Importantly, though, J.J. has significant upside with the bat. His down year last year can partly be attributed to a lower BAbip (.260 vs. career .278), but he also seemed to lose some of his power stroke; his line drive percentage fell, and he hit fewer home runs per fly ball. Still, if he can be had fairly cheaply, he would be a good risk for the Orioles to take. Since the team is unlikely to add a power bat on the corners, the O's will need to get extra production from nontraditional sources. Matt Wieters behind the plate and Adam Jones in centerfield are a good start, and J.J. Hardy could provide above average offense from the shortstop position.

Update: Nevermind. Hardy is off the market.

Felipe Lopez to be an Oriole?

He's no longer a National. Since the Orioles still don't really have a Major League shortstop (no offense, Juan Castro), I wonder if they sign him to a no-risk deal?

Say it Ain't So!

The Baltimore Sun is reporting the Orioles are interested in David Eckstein. While Eckstein can at least get on base (.360 OBP) and his VORP is positive (+7.1), he has no power (.348 SLG). And, more importantly for the O's, he is a below average defender at shortstop. Range factor isn't a perfect stat, but his 3.85 RFg is worse than the league average 3.95. As I detailed last week, if the team determines it can't live without a short-term fix at the position, the Orioles should probably just focus on getting the best possible defender for shortstop. Plus, any price for David Eckstein is too high for a team focused on rebuilding.

I've got lots of family in town this weekend, and we're heading to the game today. I'll post if I can, but wanted to make sure my thoughts on Eckstein were posted. Happy 4th to everyone.

More on Shortstop

In their Saturday game previews, Baseball Prospectus evaluates the potential Felipe Lopez trade for the Orioles:

The Nationals and Orioles have been engaged on the field and on the phone lines this weekend, as FOX Sport's Ken Rosenthal has reported that Baltimore is moving towards acquiring Washington's Felipe Lopez to play shortstop. Baltimore has gotten nothing offensively from their shortstops this season–just a single homer, and a .196 EqA–so Lopez, with his two homers and .233 EqA, would fit right in. Where he wouldn't match up as well is on defense, which should give the Orioles brass pause before making the deal. Lopez has played just two games at shortstop this season, but 591 over the course of his career, and he has been well below average at the position, by both Range Factor (4.18, compared to the average of 4.47), fielding percentage (.959 to .974), and FRAA (90 Rate, or -53 runs below average). He has also produced -22.9 SFR in his career at shortstop, with his only season in the black being 2003. To this point, Baltimore is first in the majors in defensive efficiency, and has managed to stay above .500 in part because of such outstanding defense. In that light, it would seem that adding such a poor glove at such an important defensive position might well upset that fragile harmony. Orioles shortstops have not been great defensively thus far, but they have put up an above-average Range Factor and have been a bit better than average by FRAA.

Shortstop Woes

Coming into the season, shortstop was the Orioles' most glaring weakness. It's the end of June, and nothing has changed. As Jeff Zrebiec reports in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles are looking to trade for a shortstop.

The Orioles this season have employed five players at shortstop: Luis Hernandez, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fahey, Eider Torres and Alex Cintron. Perusing the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) list over at Baseball Prospectus, none has a VORP above zero. Cintron has posted a -0.3 number, Torres -0.7, Fahey -1.8, Hernandez -2.0, and Bynum -7.9 (note: VORP does not include defensive value). That's nearly 10% of the team's plate appearances given to players below replacement level. Clearly, shortstop is a need that must be addressed, at least in the long-term.

So what should the Orioles do? Well, there's not much out there worth trading for: Zrebiec mentions Jack Wilson, Clint Barmes, Brendan Harris and Felipe Lopez as names that the Orioles might be considering. Ick. Wilson has a career OPS of .689. Barmes had a solid rookie season in 2005 and got off to a solid start in 2008 before hitting the DL, but he's also walked just eight times in 145 at-bats and has a career .303 OBP. Harris finally got regular playing time last season in Tampa Bay and put up a 106 OPS+, but is down at an 84 OPS+ this season and is considered a brutally bad defender at shortstop. Lopez has a .653 OPS and makes $4.9 M this season. While these might be slightly better options than Brandon Fahey, they are certainly not long-term solutions for the position.

In spite of their offensive struggles at shortstop, the Orioles have accumulated a 40-37 record, two wins better than the 38-39 record their run differential (-8) would imply, and far above virtually all preseason predictions. How have they done it? In a word, defense. The Orioles rank first in defensive efficiency, converting 72% of balls in play into outs. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Chicago (AL) are next on the list, and all of these teams are also "surprise" winners this season. Oakland and Tampa, especially, have made a concerted effort to field excellent defensive teams. I do not think it is a coincidence that these teams are outperforming expectations and also play tremendous defense.

Cintron is probably the best offensive option for the Orioles, but his struggles defensively are amplified since the club wins by playing solid defense. If Dave Trembley believes he can't handle the position defensively, the only other internal option is Fahey, and he's proven he cannot hit at the Major League level. If the Orioles do decide to trade for a shortstop, they should target the best available defender that can produce offensively near replacement level. But unless they are able to trade Roberts, Sherrill, Huff, Scott or any of the other veterans for a legitimate prospect, nothing that fills the shortstop position for this season is going to be a part of the long-term plans to make this team a contender again.