Daniel Cabrera Update

"I was tired of watching him." - Mike Rizzo, Nationals GM

Every Baltimore fan nods in agreement.

Daniel always had lots of talent; it's a shame he could never put it all together.
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Daniel Cabrera Analysis

Baseball Prospectus has a very interesting pair of posts regarding Daniel Cabrera. To sum up:

• Increasing percentage of fastballs thrown
• Decreasing movement and velocity on said fastballs
• Arm injury in September

While his medicals may not be as bad as those of Ben Sheets, the Orioles may very well have saved themselves the hassle of paying Daniel Cabrera to be not very good and then injured.

On a related note, I'm thoroughly amazed at the work that can be done when analysts have movement and velocity data for each individual pitch.

One Final Daniel Cabrera Thought

Until he wins the Cy Young for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009.

Joe Sheehan comes down a bit harder on Andy MacPhail than I did:

Cabrera has never come close to meeting the expectations set by his talent and his performance in 2005 and 2006, when he was a strikeout/ground-ball machine who needed just an improvement in his command to become a number two starter. That improvement never came, and in chasing it, Cabrera lost what he did well and watched his strikeout rate fall to half of its peak last season, his second straight with an ERA above 5.00. The innings he threw and his service time would have led to a mid-seven-figures arbitration award, regardless.

I can almost understand the decision... almost. Cabrera has shown few signs of improvement, and will be kind of expensive for a fourth or fifth starter. At the same time, the Orioles aren't exactly deep in the rotation. They have prospects coming, and coming quickly, but the major league rotation could use some bodies. To take a pitcher who at the least has established that he can make 30 starts and who retains his upside—if little chance of getting there—and turn him loose just for want of some cash seems a little shortsighted. If this were a different team, one needing to win a lot of games in '09, or one with seven or eight starters, I would feel otherwise. Cutting loose Cabrera denies the Orioles a player they could use, and cuts them off from the chance that he could find his way back. That the Orioles, who know him as well as any team, would let him go is valuable information, but I can't help but think that Cabrera is going to have 425 soft-focus, "they didn't believe in me" features written about him next summer as he starts the year 6-1, 2.66 for a new team.

Daniel Cabrera Non-tendered

It's official: Daniel Cabrera has pitched his last game for the Orioles. Suffice to say, Cabrera has been one of the most promising and most frustrating pitchers in all of baseball over his five year career. When he was able to throw strikes, he was dominant; his complete game one-hitter against the Yankees in his final start of 2006 was but one example of what he was capable of doing. Unfortunately, those examples were few and far between. He's never finished below third in the league in walks allowed despite only once cracking 200 IP; he finished first in both 2006 and 2007, but "improved" to second last year, largely because injuries cost him about five starts in the final two months of the season. For his career, he averaged nearly 7 K/9, but also an amazing 5.11 BB/9.

I have mixed feelings about non-tendering Cabrera. As we all know, the Orioles are missing a few links in their rotation; Jeremy Guthrie is the only player on the 40-man roster you could even pencil into the rotation, much less count on to make 30 starts. Cabrera would have been a relatively low-cost option to contibrute 180 innings. Granted, they wouldn't have been 180 particularly good innings, but at this point the Orioles don't have enough pitchers to make it through April, much less September. At somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 million, a case can certainly be made that those innings, and the potential that Cabrera finally fulfills his promise, are worth the cost.

Still, as a fan, I will not miss watching Cabrera pitch every five days. The walks, the wild pitches, the atrocious defense. No more, thanks. None of that is solid, rational analysis, but it sure makes me feel better to know that whichever crappy pitchers the Orioles run out there next year, it won't be the same crappy pitchers as the last five seasons. He's always seemed like a hard worker and quality person, so I wish Daniel Cabrera well, but I do hope he doesn't win a Cy Young award with his next organization.