Corey Patterson Update

Well, it looks like CP is on his way.  The only question is who goes and who stays: Lou Montanez or Nolan Reimold?

Montanez is, at very best, a 4th outfielder.  He doesn't play exceptionally good defense, he doesn't hit very well, and he's not very versatile.  Other than that, he brings lots of value.  Roster-wise, it makes the most sense to send him back to Norfolk for Patterson (who at least is capable of playing solid defense at all three outfield positions).

Reimold, though, is really struggling.  He's hitting just .205/.302/.337, and he has made several defensive miscues in the past few games.  However, he has hit safely in five out of his last six games and he remains one of the few players willing to accept a base on balls (walk rate: 11.5%; Reimold, Markakis, Scott and Wieters are the only regulars with a walk rate above 8.0%).  Assuming that he's healthy (a big assumption), Reimold needs to continue to play every day.  His track record suggests that he is a much better hitter than he's currently showing, and he will likely turn things around eventually.

Thus, the question becomes what the team plans to do with Patterson once he arrives: will he platoon in left field with Reimold?  Will he get nearly all the left field at-bats, at least in the near term?  Or is he up just to provide some more bench value than Montanez?  If Reimold won't be getting regular playing time, I'd prefer that he head back to Norfolk to work through his funk.  While he's there, I'd love for him to break out that first baseman's mitt again, too.  I'm not sure who started the meme that Reimold really is better than Pie in left, but that is clearly not true.  If he's going back to Norfolk, he might as well learn a new position while he's there.  And maybe, just maybe, when he comes back up he can replace Garrett Atkins.

Corey Patterson

Just in case you haven't been paying attention, the Orioles are bad at scoring runs.  Their 107 runs scored (3.34 runs/game) rank ahead of only the lowly Astros, Mariners and Indians, while their .305 team on-base percentage bests only the Astros.  Four players are pulling their weight offensively: Ty Wigginton (a shocking 169 OPS+), Nick Markakis (131), Matt Wieters (110), and Miguel Tejada (109).  The other regulars rank somewhere from really bad (Reimold, 76) to awful (Luke Scott, 72, and Adam Jones, 65) to execrable (Garrett Atkins, 57, and Cesar Izuturis, 43).  Unsurprisingly, Andy MacPhail isn't happy, and changes might be on the way.

There has been a strong movement over at the Sun blog and on Twitter to bring up Corey Patterson.  After all, he's hitting .367 in Norfolk, and the O's could sure use some offense, right?  The problem, of course, is that Corey Patterson can't provide any offense.  In his career, he has a .290 OBP.  Bad as he has been, Nolan Reimold has a .304 OBP this season, and even Adam Jones isn't that much lower (.257).  Yes, Patterson plays a good defensive outfield, and thus he makes more sense as a fourth outfielder than Lou Montanez; we all saw his center field "skills" on display in New York last week.  But the notion that Patterson will fix what ails the O's offense is misguided at best and delusional at worst.

Fortunately, Jeff Zrebiec clarified his stance today (emphasis mine):

I think he’d be a good addition to the Orioles’ bench because of his defensive abilities and what he brings with his speed/bunting ability, etc. But all the talk about Patterson coming up and being a huge part of an offensive turnaround is a little much. Patterson has been in six different organizations since 2005, and this is his second go-around with the Orioles. He is a career .252 hitter with a career .290 on-base percentage.

The impetus for all this backseat general managing was an article that appeared last week in which Andy MacPhail put the O's hitters "on notice."  I think (hope) that MacPhail knows there really isn't anyone better in Norfolk; Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder have both struggled this spring, and we just discussed the (de)merits of Corey Patterson.  Rather, MacPhail is rightly placing the emphasis on performance.  Reimold and Jones are likely better hitters than they have shown so far this season, but with no one pushing them from behind, they haven't lost any playing time.  If bringing up Corey Patterson and sending either Reimold and/or Jones to AAA for some low pressure at-bats is what the club thinks is best for their long-term development, do it. Just so long as we're clear that Corey Patterson isn't going to help the O's win any more games in 2010 than either of those guys.  No matter what the stated goal was prior to the season, the Orioles have to be squarely focused on getting Reimold and Jones back on track to be valuable contributors for the future.

Roster Moves

Could the end of the Garrett Atkins era be near?  The Orioles have recalled 1B/OF Rhyne Hughes from Norfolk today, but the move has not yet been made official so we don't know who will be leaving the 25-man roster.  Speculation has initially focused on Alberto Castillo, Justin Turner or Julio Lugo, and each makes some sense.  Castillo is the last man up in a larger-than usual bullpen (and I assume he can be optioned), Turner can be optioned, and Lugo is... well, Julio Lugo.  But I'll suggest three other candidates:

1) Garrett Atkins - He's awful. In 60 plate appearances, he's walked twice and struck out 12 times.  Plus, Hughes plays his position.  He gets my vote.
2) Jason Berken - Berken has actually thrown well, but he, too, can be optioned. The O's may not need/want an extra long man right now.
3) Will Ohman - Again, the O's have an extra pitcher in the bullpen right now, and Ohman can't seem to throw strikes. Which, of course, he couldn't do last year, either.  If he's not the guy today, he'd be my choice to go when the O's make a move for a 5th starter next week.

The moral of the story?  It's probably not a good sign if your team is making a roster move and there are six legitimate candidates to be optioned or released.
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Orioles Add LeBron!

Sweet!

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Offseason Recap

With spring training little more than three weeks away, let's take a look back at the Orioles offseason. The offseason lacked major moves of the Brian Roberts trade or Mark Teixeira signing variety, but it shapes up as a successful one nonetheless. To recap:

• Nick Markakis signed a 6-year, $66.1 million contract extension, ensuring he is an Oriole through the 2014 season.
• Cesar Izturis signed a 2-year, $6 million contract, filling a glaring hole at shortstop.
• Ramon Hernandez was traded for Ryan Freel, netting the Orioles a valuable utility player and, more importantly, clearing the way for Matt Wieters to catch in 2009.
• Greg Olson was traded for Felix Pie, adding outfield depth and upside potential for a pitcher on whom the Orioles had clearly soured.
• Gregg Zaun signed to be a veteran mentor for Wieters.
• Koji Uehara signed to fill a rotation slot, marking the Orioles first foray into the Japanese player market.
• Randor Bierd was traded for David Pauley, giving the Orioles another arm to compete for innings in the rotation.

For a team that finished 2008 with a 68-93 record, none of those moves is particularly overwhelming and certainly, taken individually, does little to boost the Orioles above any one of the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays. However, the process involved with each move offers a great deal of hope:

1) First and foremost, the Orioles added to the talent pool within the organization and created spots for young talent to play on a daily basis. Matt Wieters, if not the starting catcher on Opening Day, will spend most of 2009 in Baltimore, and Felix Pie, a former top-prospect with lots of tools, will finally get an opportunity to play every day in the majors.

2) The team recognized that the fastest and cheapest way to improve its run prevention was to improve on defense. Cesar Izturis is widely recognized as an excellent glove man, and an outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis will hopefully chase down lots of balls that would otherwise fall for hits. That should help a pitching staff that is very much a work in progress.

3) MacPhail declined to overpay for veteran pitchers just to fill glaring rotation holes. Behind Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles figure to have Uehara, and... well, we'll see. Hayden Penn, David Hernandez, Bradley Bergensen, Matt Albers, Danys Baez, Brian Burres, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, and Pauley all figure to get a good look as candidates to fill the remaining rotation slots. More importantly, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects and could contribute in the relatively near future.

4) The Uehara signing signals a change in philosophy beginning to bear fruit. When MacPhail arrived, he implemented a new emphasis on international scouting. I take it as a good sign that he was able to target and sign a Japanese free agent.

Sure it's not the most exciting offseason, but it might be just what the Orioles needed. The team wasn't going to compete in 2009 under all but the most unlikely of circumstances (say, signing all those free agents who ended up with the Yankees), and thus held to the philosophy of building for 2010. If the young pitching can continue to develop, the Orioles are right on track.

Offseason grade: B+

UPDATE: Brian Roberts has been offered a 3-year, $30 million contract extension. A Roberts extension would likely bump the offseason grade to an "A."

Mark Teixeira Capable of Saving World

or so one might think from the intrigue generated by his contract negotiations this offseason. Peter Schmuck gives the Baltimore-centric rundown at The Sun:

Here it is in a nutshell: If the Orioles defy the odds and win the Teixeira derby, then maybe the team really has changed direction under MacPhail and maybe it's time to start coming back to the ballpark after a decade of declining attendance. If the Orioles get outbid - no matter how big the winning bid turns out to be - then it's the same old, same old. The Orioles weren't really serious and stayed on the fringe of the bidding only for public relations purposes.

As a fan, I'd like nothing more than to see Teixeira manning first base and taking aim at the Warehouse during batting practice. As an objective observer, I have very real concerns over the length and dollar value of the contract it will take to lure Teixeira back to the Inner Harbor. As a fan and an objective observer, I think it's best not to get tooooo worked up over these negotiations. A free agent situation with Scott Boras involved tends to take on a life of its own, and that doesn't typically work to the benefit of the club. I believe that Andy MacPhail has played these negotiations relatively well so far, declining to negotiate through the media and refusing to bid against himself. He knows that the contract offer the O's have on the table is competitive and I suspect that he believes Teixeira won't be signing anywhere without giving MacPhail one last phone call. All evidence from the past 18 months points to MacPhail being an extremely competent general manager, and the fan and objective observer inside of me are satisfied with the direction he's taking the organization, regardless of the outcome of the Teixeira bidding.

No Wieters this September

Dave Trembley, despite professing a desire for another catcher after rosters expand in September, has said we won't be seeing Matt Wieters in Baltimore this September. From MLB.com:

"Matt Wieters will not be coming up here in September," Trembley said. "We've
hopefully put that situation to rest. He'll play in the Arizona Fall League if
that's where we send him. It's his first year as a pro baseball player, above
and beyond everything. There's no reason for him to come up here this September.
There's no reason at this particular point in time to put him on the roster.
He's going to play in the fall league, get ready for Spring Training, and then
we'll go from there."

Wieters is clearly ready for the majors, or at least as ready as playing in the minor leagues can make anyone for the majors. He's had a phenomenal year. Why not reward the future of the franchise--and the player who should be the opening day catcher in 2009--with a call-up to the big leagues? He's earned it.

Arbitration, Free Agency and Contracts

Keith Law has an outstanding primer on major league contracts, arbitration eligibility, free agent status, and roster rules. As these issues affect roster and player development decisions today more than ever, it's important to understand the minutiae involved.

Signing Day & Waiver Trades

It's Brian Matusz signing day! Assuming the t's are crossed and i's dotted, of course, but with Matusz in town for a physical, that seems very, very likely.

The Sun also has info on Orioles players and their revocable waivers status:

• Aubrey Huff has passed through
• George Sherrill was claimed and pulled back
• Jay Payton passed through
• Kevin Millar passed through
• Jamie Walker passed through

Huff wasn't claimed because he is still owed a significant sum of money and is largely a DH only. That doesn't fit the needs of any AL contender in a competitive race--at this point only Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota. Tampa could probably use another bat, especially with their recent spat of injuries, but they've been down the Aubrey Huff road before and the parting was not amicable. Boston has David Ortiz, Chicago has about four DH's, and while Minnesota could use the bat, they probably wouldn't take the money.

I'm curious to know who claimed Sherrill--the Sun notes it was at least one unnamed AL team--and whether the Orioles attempted to work out a trade or if they pulled Sherrill back without negotiating. Sherrill is under team control for a few more years, so even though he profiles as an aging middle reliever, MacPhail has asked for significant return should he be traded. Depending on just how much he's asking for, I'm not sure I agree with that decision.

As for the others, I don't see any team looking to acquire those sorts of spare parts. Walker hasn't had any success against lefties this year (they have a shocking 1.049 OPS against him), and since he's a LOOGY that means he hasn't really had any success at all this year. Millar and Payton could both be useful to a contender, but since they are playing key roles for this mildly surprising Orioles team, neither is likely to be dealt, even though they have zero long-term value.

Roster Moves

Baseball Prospectus runs down the fallout from this week’s transactions, including the Chris Waters and Luis Montanez promotions.

Montanez, Teixeira and Wieters

Cleaning up a few links...

• Like Chris Waters last night, Lou Montanez made his debut a memorable one this afternoon, homering in his first Major League at-bat.
• With the Orioles in Anaheim, there has been lots of ink spilled over the upcoming Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, especially as it relates to the Orioles chances of signing the hometown slugger. There are legitimate cases to be made for and against signing Teixeira, and we'll debate the issue thoroughly, but I sincerely doubt he'll take any sort of sentimental discount to play for the Orioles. Still, if there's anyone for whom Peter Angelos might be willing to open the vault, it is probably Mark Teixeira. If the Orioles make the best offer, he'll sign here. If they don't, he won't. I really think it's that simple.
• Spencer Fordin at MLB.com discussed September call-ups with Dave Trembley, and the early returns aren't looking too promising for our first glimpse of Matt Wieters. It's only August 6, however, and I doubt we've heard the last of this issue. Personally, if Wieters continue to hit in Bowie for the next month, there is no reason not to bring him up this September, let him catch half the time and DH the other half.

Even More on Luis Montanez

It's Luis Montanez week here at the Birds Nest! As the Baltimore Sun is reporting, Montanez had his contract purchased from Bowie after Adam Jones was placed on the DL. While it's clearly a bummer that Jones will miss significant development time with his injury, Montanez has earned his promotion. Let's hope he keeps hitting like he was in Bowie.

Also of note is that Derek Jacques over at Baseball Prospectus posted a follow-up to his weekend article about minor league translations. He walks through a very clear comparison of three players from the same league with the same EqA and looks at how park factors and age affect their translations. As usual, outstanding stuff.