Orioles Offense Fail

Is this the worst line-up a team has put on the field all season?

Julio Lugo (SS) .125/.176/.125
Ty Wigginton (2B) .295/.391/.654
Nick Markakis (RF) .314/.413/.500
Miguel Tejada (3B) .311/.357/.500
Garrett Atkins (1B) .270/.289/.338
Matt Wieters (DH) .277/.340/.744
Nolan Reimold (LF) .179/.282/.299
Craig Tatum (CA) .100/.100/.100
Lou Montanez (CF) .129/.156/.129

There are four hitters with an OPS+ above 75 in the lineup (Wigginton 179, Markakis 148, Tejada 131, and Wieters 102).  Five guys have OBPs below .300. The clean-up hitter has a .338 slugging percentage.  And the worst part?  It's not even good defensively.

Opening Day

Though we might not have the mid-June-esque weather of the past few days, today really feels like baseball season. Or at least it will once I head out from the office for today's game!

As I'm sure you've figured out, I'm really interested in line-up construction, and it seems I'm not alone: the Pirates are using a "non-traditional" line-up this season. Forearm smash: The Book blog.
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Lineup Analysis

Yesterday's Orioles lineup seems to be more or less what the club is planning to roll out for Opening Day. How did Dave Trembley do?

The lineup, with CHONE projections for OBP and SLG:

1) Roberts .358/.427
2) Jones .349/.497
3) Markakis .373/.484
4) Tejada .330/.435
5) Scott .337/.471
6) Wieters .355/.460
7) Atkins .327/.412
8) Pie .332/.435
9) Izturis .301/.334

According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool, Trembley didn't do terribly, but there is room for improvement. This lineup projects for 5.133 runs per game, while the optimal lineup projects for 5.157, a difference of 3.888 runs over the course of a season: a bit less than half a win.

How can we reasonably improve the above lineup? Well, Roberts leading off and Cesar Izturis batting 9th are no brainers. Given what we saw for the importance of the number two slot in the lineup, we should also move Nick Markakis into the number two hole. The tool then likes some combination of Scott, Wieters and Jones in the numbers 3, 4 and 5 slots, with Tejada, Atkins and Pie rounding out the bottom half of the order. Since we want to break up lefties, let's put those six guys in this order: Wieters, Jones, Scott, Tejada, Atkins, Pie (feel free to swap Pie and Atkins if you would like). That lineup works out to 5.155 runs per game, tied for the fourth most optimal lineup. The moral of the story? Batting Tejada cleanup instead of further down in the order is likely to cost the Orioles somewhere between 3 and 5 runs this season. Keep that in mind when Jim Palmer extols the virtues of Tejada's proven run producing abilities right before another inning-ending double play.
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Lineup

Spring Training games begin today! And that means we get our first Orioles lineup of the season. As just tweeted by MLB.com beat writer @Britt_Ghiroli, here's how the O's will look today (positions guesstimated for now):


CF Adam Jones
SS Cesar Izturis
RF Nick Markakis
3B Miguel Tejada
CA Matt Wieters
LF Luke Scott
1B Garrett Atkins
DH Josh Bell
2B Justin Turner


The Orioles are obviously without Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold as those two ease into spring training while recovering from injuries, but once those guys are back, what will the lineup look like for Opening Day? Most importantly, what should the lineup look like for Opening Day?


Let's make a few assumptions:
1) Reimold will start in left field
2) Atkins will start at first base
3) Scott will DH
3) Everyone is healthy



I've been reading The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by noted sabermetricians Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, and these guys have quite a bit to say about lineup optimization. Let's highlight their key point:

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

They draw several other optimization conclusions regarding speed, baserunning, and strikeouts, but the above rule of thumb should be simple enough that everyone can understand it. So, who are the Orioles best hitters? The diagram above shows each starter's projected wOBA according to CHONE.


Nick Markakis is the Orioles best hitter. We'll stick him in the #2 slot to get him the most at-bats. Next up is Adam Jones, who derives more of his value from power than OBP; sounds like a clean-up hitter to me. Reimold, Wieters, Scott, and Roberts are up next. Where should each fit? Here are the OBP and SLG projections for each:


Reimold: .355/.477
Wieters: .355/.460
Scott: .337/.471
Roberts: .358/.427


Since Roberts derives more of his value from his on-base abilities, we'll put him lead-off (and, also, I don't think it would be possible to convince Dave Trembley that he should bat anywhere else). Reimold and Wieters project pretty evenly, so we'll put Matt Wieters in the #3 hole since that has traditionally been the place managers slot their best hitter. Reimold gets penciled in at #5. Rounding out the lineup we'll just go straight down the list: Scott, Tejada, Atkins and Izturis. Here's what we have:


2B Brian Roberts (S)
RF Nick Markakis (L)
CA Matt Wieters (S)
CF Adam Jones (R)
LF Nolan Reimold (R)
DH Luke Scott (L)
3B Miguel Tejada (R)
1B Garrett Atkins (R)
SS Cesar Izturis (S)


According to the awesome lineup analysis tool at Baseball Musings, this lineup would be good for 5.239 runs per game (849 runs for the season). This may seem high, but keep in mind that this lineup wouldn't play together every day, and the expected performance of replacements would be lower. How does this compare to the optimal lineup (according the tool)? The optimal lineup would score 5.249 runs per, or 16 runs more over the course of the season, a difference of a win and a half. What's that optimal lineup?


Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Atkins
Scott
Izturis


That's pretty close to the lineup we constructed above, and I'm pretty surprised that swapping Reimold and Jones and moving Scott from 6th to 8th makes that big of a difference.

Looking at the optimized lineups, comparing them to Trembley's creation, and drawing a few (perhaps hasty) conclusions, what can we say? I think we can make two: First and foremost, Dave Trembley does not understand the importance of the #2 slot in the lineup. Cesar Izturis batted second 28 times in 2009. TWENTY-EIGHT TIMES. He posted a .294 on-base percentage. He. Should. Not. Bat. Second. Ever. Even when Trembley got the top of the lineup right last season, he got the reason wrong. He would move Markakis and Jones to the second slot in order to protect them in the lineup, often when they were perceived to be struggling in the middle. In fact, he should have been moving the hot hand to the second slot (we won't get into streaks right now). Secondly, I think Trembley is overrating the "veteran presence" and "run producer" reputation Tejada brings to the middle of the order. Tejada accumulated RBIs in the past because he was a good hitter; he was not a good hitter because he had some special RBI generating power. I think his days as a good hitter are pretty much over, so he should be hitting lower in the order, letting Reimold and Wieters clear the table set by Roberts and Markakis.

In 2010, I'm going to keep track of loony lineup construction, bad bullpenning and silly strategizing with the Twitter tag #Trembleyfail. Follow @theorioleway to keep track, and let me know when you see the same. Together, we can be the force that brings the Orioles an extra win just by not screwing up the lineup.
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Dave Trembley

I know that Dave Trembley is quite the popular manager, but I think he's pretty terrible at constructing lineups. Exhibit A: Cesar Izturis batted second today. Izturis has a .298 career OBP. He should never bat anywhere near the top of the lineup. What would have been wrong with having Ryan Freel (career .357 OBP) hit 2nd instead?

On a related note, let's hope that Freel is OK after leaving today's game following being hit in the back of the head by a pick-off throw.

Update: Joe Posnanski is trying to keep track of inexplicable managerial decisions. Let's help him keep track of those that originate in Baltimore.
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A Slice of Pie

Felix Pie, that is. News broke this afternoon that the Orioles and Cubs have agreed to a deal that will send Garrett Olson and minor-leaguer Henry Williamson to the Cubs and Felix Pie to Baltimore. Pie has long been a Cubs top-prospect--and subject of Orioles/Cubs trade rumors--but he could never seem to force his way into the lineup on an everyday basis for Chicago as it contended in the NL Central. Olson has been a frustrating pitcher the past two seasons, succeeding on the basis of command, and certainly not raw stuff, in the minors but never having much success in Baltimore. A change of scenery could do him well, especially since it gets him out of the AL East and into the weaker National League.

The addition of the lefthanded hitting Pie, while on the surface a bit curious, is exactly the type of move the Orioles should be making. Sure, the Orioles are set in center and right field and had Luke Scott and maybe even Nolan Reimold to play left, but for a rebuilding team like the Orioles, you choose young talent over old stopgaps at every opportunity. What can a full season of playing time do for Pie's development? Let's hope it turns out similarly to the Adam Jones experiment from 2008.

Speaking of Adam Jones, an outfield of Pie, Jones and Nick Markakis, plus a middle infield of Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis, should tremendously help the development of the pitching staff. Run prevention comes in two flavors, pitching and defense, and while the Orioles may not have much of the former, they should do very well with the latter. Depending on how prospects like Radhames Liz, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, et al. develop, the first half of that equation could look very different come September.

So what are the Orioles looking at in terms of a lineup for 2009?

2B - Brian Roberts (S)
3B - Melvin Mora (R)
RF - Nick Markakis (L)
1B - Aubrey Huff (L)
CA - Matt Wieters (S)
DH - Luke Scott (L)
CF - Adam Jones (R)
LF - Felix Pie (L)
SS - Cesar Izturis (S)

Bench - Ryan Freel, Greg Zaun, Chris Gomez

Others: Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, Oscar Salazar, Scott Moore

That lineup definitely tilts to the left; if the Orioles were closer to contention, they would ideally find a right-handed hitting first baseman, shift Huff to designated hitter and Scott to a back-up role. I suspect that Nolan Reimold will be donning a first baseman's mitt quite a bit this spring.

Still, MacPhail has done an admirable job building this team for 2009 as it waits for young pitching to develop for the future. The lineup above, especially if Reimold earns a slot, has a nice mix of long-term solutions (Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Pie) and veteran fill-ins (Roberts, Mora, Scott, Huff, Izturis), plus it should play very good defense. With Roberts, Mora and Huff, all up for free agency after 2009, there are still lots of holes to fill for the long-term, but this does appear to be a team headed in the right direction.

Road Trippin'

The Orioles have an off day today as they travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a three game set. Then it's on to Boston for three more before the All Star break. I can't help but feel that this week is going to be exceptionally important for the O's.

On the morning of June 27, the Orioles were coming off a tough road swing through Milwaukee and Chicago where they split six games, winning once against the Brewers and twice against the Cubs. Since then, however, the Orioles have dropped two out of three to the lowly Nationals, split a four game set with the Royals and fallen twice more to the Rangers. But more important than their 4-6 mark in the last 10 games is what has happened to the pitching staff:

• George Sherrill has been quite shaky; in his last four outings, he has allowed a game winning home run against the Nationals, a game tying homer against the Royals, two inherited runners to score before closing out a win over the Royals, and two hits, two walks and two inherited runners to score against the Rangers.
• Adam Loewen is likely headed to the DL again, and despite my bullish sentiments from last week, the Orioles may very well never get anything of value out of Loewen; he just cannot stay healthy.
• Jamie Walker hit the DL on June 30.
• Matt Albers hit the DL on June 26.

For a team that relies on Garrett Olson (5.1 innings per start), Radhames Liz (4.2 innings per start) and Brian Burres (5.2 innings per start) for 60% of its starting rotation, losing three quality bullpen arms is a huge blow. All of a sudden, what was once a strength--the bullpen--is a significant question mark. Luminaries such as Fernando Cabrera (career 4.82 ERA), Lance Cormier (career 5.57 ERA) and Greg Aquino (career 5.35 ERA) will be called upon to pitch big innings ahead of Jim Johnson (just 25 strikeouts in 48.0 IP, 19 walks, yet to allow a home run), Dennis Sarfate (43 strikeouts in 39.2 IP, but an incredible 34 walks), Chad Bradford (just 11 strikeouts in 32.1 IP) and Sherrill (22 walks and 5 home runs allowed in 38.2 IP).

Looking at that list, it is highly unlikely the Orioles bullpen will show the same amount of success in the second half of the season that it did in the first. Sooner or later, someone is going to hit a home run off Johnson, the walks are going to cost Sarfate, and Bradford will be undone by his inability to get strikeouts. As we've seen with Sherrill in the past week, relievers who allow a significant number of baserunners walk a fine line between "making things interesting" and costing the club wins.

Between the starting pitching and the relief pitching, the Orioles seem poised to give up quite a few runs for the remainder of the season. Still, they have a team ERA of 4.42 (league ERA 4.16) and at 44-43, they have performed right in line with their run differential (+1), showing that their offense has been above average at scoring runs so far (4.7 runs/game). Considering that they have gotten almost zero production from short stop, third base, and catcher and barely any production from first base, how have they done so? For starters, the team has been signficantly better with runners in scoring position: .277/.365/.431 with RISP vs. .261/.328/.426 in all situations. There is likely to be some regression to the mean in the second half. On the plus side, Adam Jones is improving with nearly every at-bat, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis should have been All-Stars, and Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff, if not outstanding players, are at least professional hitters. Fewer at-bats for Jay Payton, improved production from Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora, and a more optimal lineup mean that scoring fewer runs isn't necessarily a given.

Still, the O's face six tough games this week, are given a three day reprieve, and then play 14 games in 14 days against Detroit (20-8 since June 7, though most of that damage came against the National League), Toronto and their dangerous pitching, the first-place Anaheim Angels and the arch-rival Yankees. At that point, the Orioles have an off day on July 31, the non-waiver trading deadline. Will the club remain intact? As the O's face a difficult month ahead, short on pitching and long on quality opponents, they'll face many tough decisions: what to do about Brian Roberts? Aubrey Huff? George Sherrill? Is this team capable of making a run at .500? It's been a fun three months, but the I'm afraid that things are about to get a whole lot more difficult in the four weeks ahead.

Shortstop Woes

Coming into the season, shortstop was the Orioles' most glaring weakness. It's the end of June, and nothing has changed. As Jeff Zrebiec reports in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles are looking to trade for a shortstop.

The Orioles this season have employed five players at shortstop: Luis Hernandez, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fahey, Eider Torres and Alex Cintron. Perusing the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) list over at Baseball Prospectus, none has a VORP above zero. Cintron has posted a -0.3 number, Torres -0.7, Fahey -1.8, Hernandez -2.0, and Bynum -7.9 (note: VORP does not include defensive value). That's nearly 10% of the team's plate appearances given to players below replacement level. Clearly, shortstop is a need that must be addressed, at least in the long-term.

So what should the Orioles do? Well, there's not much out there worth trading for: Zrebiec mentions Jack Wilson, Clint Barmes, Brendan Harris and Felipe Lopez as names that the Orioles might be considering. Ick. Wilson has a career OPS of .689. Barmes had a solid rookie season in 2005 and got off to a solid start in 2008 before hitting the DL, but he's also walked just eight times in 145 at-bats and has a career .303 OBP. Harris finally got regular playing time last season in Tampa Bay and put up a 106 OPS+, but is down at an 84 OPS+ this season and is considered a brutally bad defender at shortstop. Lopez has a .653 OPS and makes $4.9 M this season. While these might be slightly better options than Brandon Fahey, they are certainly not long-term solutions for the position.

In spite of their offensive struggles at shortstop, the Orioles have accumulated a 40-37 record, two wins better than the 38-39 record their run differential (-8) would imply, and far above virtually all preseason predictions. How have they done it? In a word, defense. The Orioles rank first in defensive efficiency, converting 72% of balls in play into outs. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Chicago (AL) are next on the list, and all of these teams are also "surprise" winners this season. Oakland and Tampa, especially, have made a concerted effort to field excellent defensive teams. I do not think it is a coincidence that these teams are outperforming expectations and also play tremendous defense.

Cintron is probably the best offensive option for the Orioles, but his struggles defensively are amplified since the club wins by playing solid defense. If Dave Trembley believes he can't handle the position defensively, the only other internal option is Fahey, and he's proven he cannot hit at the Major League level. If the Orioles do decide to trade for a shortstop, they should target the best available defender that can produce offensively near replacement level. But unless they are able to trade Roberts, Sherrill, Huff, Scott or any of the other veterans for a legitimate prospect, nothing that fills the shortstop position for this season is going to be a part of the long-term plans to make this team a contender again.