Miguel Tejada: Clutch Hitter?

Over at the Orioles Insider blog today, a post from Dan Connolly appears with the headline "No question, Miggi is clutch".  Certainly, Tejada's two run, bases loaded single last night was a clutch hit.  But is Miguel Tejada clutch?  Let's look at some numbers.  Remember, tOPS+ is a statistic that adjusts a particular split stat to compare it to a player's career or season total.


Tejada, Career: .289/.341/.469
Tejada, Career, RISP: .296/.354/.475, 105 tOPS+

So Tejada performs about 5% better than his career norm with runners in scoring position, mostly thanks to a better on-base percentage.  Sounds clutch, right?  Not so fast.  How do ALL batters perform with runners in scoring position?

League Average, 2010: .256/.330/.403
League Average, 2010, RISP: .254/.348/.391, 102 tOPS+

So ALL batters improve by about 2% with runners in scoring position in 2010 (and this what happens nearly every season), mainly because pitchers throw from the stretch (there are probably effects from defensive positioning as well).  Is Tejada's difference significant?  Maybe (I don't have the time this morning to make sure I'm doing the math correctly).

Here is the link to his "Clutch" table at baseball-reference.com.  Looks to me like he performs in the clutch almost identically to the way we'd expect any hitter of his caliber.

Now, Tejada DOES have much better numbers in "High Leverage" situations (119 tOPS+), so I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the claim that Tejada have some sort of ability to raise his game in the clutch.  But I DO think the burden is on those who claim Tejada has superior clutch skills to cite more than his batting average with RISP in 2010 and tell an anecdote about how Tejada wants to be at the plate with the game on the line.

Runners in Scoring Position

• Melvin Mora stranded 11 baserunners yesterday. As the Baltimore Sun notes, Mora had been the Orioles leading hitter with RISP, batting at a .355 clip. For those who follow any of the baseball research that's been done in the last decade or so, it was entirely predictable that Mora would eventually start stranding more runners. Why? Because his batting average in all situations is .233. I've never seen any research that concludes clutch hitting is an identifiable, repeatable skill, despite Gary Thorne's and Kevin Millar's assertions to the contrary. Besides, if a player really did get better in the clutch, what does that say about his concentration the rest of the time?
  
• Considering that Terry Francona is likely managing a playoff team this year and the Red Sox, if applicable, would really like to have home field advantage in the World Series, I'd say there is almost no chance that O's fans will get to enjoy that George Sherrill All-Star Game appearance. Too bad one of the Orioles real All-Stars--Brian Roberts or Nick Markakis--wasn't selected instead.
  
• I'm on vacation on the west coast this week, so any postings will be few and far between.