Hitting Drill

As Daniel at Camden Crazies has been telling us for months (and as others have detailed more recently), Nick Markakis struggled to hit with any pull power this season, and that makes this article extremely interesting to me.  As the article details, "There is a core of players who regularly use Long’s drill, which teaches players to pull the ball for power."  Sounds like just the medicine he needs!  In a related story, the Orioles still haven't made any decisions about bringing back Terry Crowley for next year.

Nick Markakis is Not a Happy Camper

And he wasn't afraid to tell the Sun about it.  I don't blame him.  Some of his comments:

Sometimes, guys are going up there and it looks like they have no idea what they’re doing. 

You can have anybody come here and you still are going to have a couple of guys who are not going to change their approach and fix it. It’s worthless.

Well then.

Terry Crowley, OBP, and Home Runs

Among the many things that have gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Orioles this spring, one of the most disappointing has been the dismal performance of the offense.  Understandably, many are calling for change at the position of hitting coach.  Kevin Cowherd somehow "doesn't get it," and Dave Mc responds:

When [Crowley] took over as hitting coach before the 1999 season, it was a different era. Without making judgments, lets just say it was an era in which power was the dominant aspect of offense...

It seems more likely that Crowley is still employing the same hitting philosophies that worked a decade ago.

Just one problem: the Orioles don't hit with power!  In fact, I think you can make a pretty good case that Crowley's philosophies have actually stunted power development from a number of Orioles young hitters.  Let's look at some numbers.

1) Nick Markakis hit 23 homers as a 23-year old in 2007.  He then hit 20 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and has just two this season.
2) Matt Wieters hit a home run once every 18 at-bats in the minors.  He has hit a homer once every 37 at-bats in the majors.
3) Adam Jones goes deep about once every 36 at-bats for the Orioles.  In his final two AAA seasons (at ages 20 and 21), he homered every 21.5 at-bats.

To be fair, the Orioles haven't had a lot of highly touted prospects over the last decade, but a few other young hitters that have failed to develop on Crowley's watch include Ryan Minor, Larry Bigbie, Jerry Hairston, and Gary Matthews, Jr.  About the only successes we can really count are Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis and (gulp) Jay Gibbons.

This team's (lack of a good) hitting approach drives me absolutely nuts; just give me quality at-bats, swings at pitches in the strike zone, and the indication that hitters have some idea of what they're doing when they go to plate.  Instead, I get to watch Tejada ground into double plays on the first pitch, Cesar Izturis waive his wet noodle, and Garrett Atkins look mind-numbingly older than 30.  Now, not all of that is the hitting coach's doing.  Tejada has always been hacktastic, Izturis an awful hitter, and I'm pretty sure Garrett Atkins is finished as a Major League ballplayer.  No, what really makes me mad is when I see no progress from Adam Jones or Matt Wieters, or when I read stories in the Sun hinting that Nick Markakis needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Maybe Crowley really is doing a great job, and without his tutelage the O's offense would be even worse.  Maybe firing the hitting coach would be a symbolic gesture that wouldn't have any effect on the offense.  Or maybe Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold need a fresh voice in order to get their careers back on track.  In the wake of such a disappointing start and regression from so many of the highly touted hitters, I hope the organization is taking a hard look at the coaching staff.  Because I don't think this one is capable of effecting any on-field improvement.

Evaluating Outfield Arms

As any Orioles fan can tell you, Nick Markakis has an excellent outfield arm. But how does his arm rank compared to the rest of the league? And how much does arm matter when evaluating defense? FanGraphs does the heavy lifting, and Markakis comes out as the fourth best outfield arm in all of baseball. Before we get too carried away though, the best arm is worth about 15 runs more than the very worst arm per season. So while it does have some value, range and offense are clearly more important factors.

UPDATE: FanGraphs lives up to its name and delivers an outstanding pictorial depiction of the distribution of outfield talent along three dimensions: offense, range and throwing arm. The most amazing thing might be this nugget: "A league average bat who is an elite runner and thrower is about equal in value to a Ryan Braun type of hitter."
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Markakis Deal Imminent?

The Baltimore Sun is reporting perhaps the best news of the offseason today: "The Orioles and Nick Markakis are close to a six-year deal worth between $64 million and $66 million in guaranteed money." The deal would allow Markakis and the O's to avoid impending arbitration for 2009, as well as 2010 and 2011, and postpone Nick's first chance at free agency until after the 2014 season. This seems like an eminently reasonable deal for both sides, very much in-line with recent deals signed by Dustin Pedroia (6-years, $40 million, two free agent years bought out) and Cole Hamels (3-years, $20.5 million, zero free agent years bought out).

Hard as it is to believe, this will be either the second or third largest deal (in nominal terms) in Orioles history, and unfortunately, neither of the current largest deals turned out very well; Miguel Tejada's 6-year/$72 million deal in 2003 and Albert Belle's 5-year/$65 million deal in 1998 both soured quickly.

So what makes the Markakis deal more promising? First and foremost is age. Markakis will play his age 25 season in 2009, and will be just 30 years old when the contract expires. Thus, the Orioles have locked up their best player for what are likely to be his peak seasons. In comparison, the Orioles signed Tejada prior to his age 30 season and Belle before his age 32 season. Markakis is also regarded as an excellent defensive player, and according to Baseball Prospectus, is roughly a one win upgrade over an average rightfielder. Belle was certainly never known for his fielding prowess, and Tejada rates as (at least) one win below the average shortstop.

I love this deal for the Orioles, and Markakis must be happy that he's going to guarantee himself $65 million in career earnings before he even turns 31. Here's looking forward to at least six more seasons with Nick in right field.