The Inconsistently Consistent Adam Jones

For those missing me, I was in China for two weeks and thus unavailable to comment on the O's.  Of course, the Orioles chose this time period to put together their best stretch of the season, starting the Buck Showalter era 9-2.  I landed in the U.S. on Saturday, and since returning to North American airspace, the O's are 1-3.  I think we all know who is the problem.

While I was overseas, one of the most pleasing developments was Adam Jones' hot hitting.  From July 31 to August 13, he hit .400/.444/.600, a line I'd take any day of the week.  That brought his season line to .282/.318/.452, virtually identical to his current reading (you need only to add a single point to his OBP).  What I find amazing is just how similar that line is to his final 2009 numbers.  Take a look:

Given how poorly Jones started the season (.245/.268/.383 through June 4), I find it pretty impressive that he was able to match last season's numbers. If he can keep his .315/.362/.514 line since that date going, we might very well be seeing Jones become the player everyone anticipated.  If not, well, a .280/.330/.450 line from your centerfielder isn't the worst thing in the world, either.

Terry Crowley, OBP, and Home Runs

Among the many things that have gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Orioles this spring, one of the most disappointing has been the dismal performance of the offense.  Understandably, many are calling for change at the position of hitting coach.  Kevin Cowherd somehow "doesn't get it," and Dave Mc responds:

When [Crowley] took over as hitting coach before the 1999 season, it was a different era. Without making judgments, lets just say it was an era in which power was the dominant aspect of offense...

It seems more likely that Crowley is still employing the same hitting philosophies that worked a decade ago.

Just one problem: the Orioles don't hit with power!  In fact, I think you can make a pretty good case that Crowley's philosophies have actually stunted power development from a number of Orioles young hitters.  Let's look at some numbers.

1) Nick Markakis hit 23 homers as a 23-year old in 2007.  He then hit 20 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and has just two this season.
2) Matt Wieters hit a home run once every 18 at-bats in the minors.  He has hit a homer once every 37 at-bats in the majors.
3) Adam Jones goes deep about once every 36 at-bats for the Orioles.  In his final two AAA seasons (at ages 20 and 21), he homered every 21.5 at-bats.

To be fair, the Orioles haven't had a lot of highly touted prospects over the last decade, but a few other young hitters that have failed to develop on Crowley's watch include Ryan Minor, Larry Bigbie, Jerry Hairston, and Gary Matthews, Jr.  About the only successes we can really count are Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis and (gulp) Jay Gibbons.

This team's (lack of a good) hitting approach drives me absolutely nuts; just give me quality at-bats, swings at pitches in the strike zone, and the indication that hitters have some idea of what they're doing when they go to plate.  Instead, I get to watch Tejada ground into double plays on the first pitch, Cesar Izturis waive his wet noodle, and Garrett Atkins look mind-numbingly older than 30.  Now, not all of that is the hitting coach's doing.  Tejada has always been hacktastic, Izturis an awful hitter, and I'm pretty sure Garrett Atkins is finished as a Major League ballplayer.  No, what really makes me mad is when I see no progress from Adam Jones or Matt Wieters, or when I read stories in the Sun hinting that Nick Markakis needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Maybe Crowley really is doing a great job, and without his tutelage the O's offense would be even worse.  Maybe firing the hitting coach would be a symbolic gesture that wouldn't have any effect on the offense.  Or maybe Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold need a fresh voice in order to get their careers back on track.  In the wake of such a disappointing start and regression from so many of the highly touted hitters, I hope the organization is taking a hard look at the coaching staff.  Because I don't think this one is capable of effecting any on-field improvement.

Gold Gloves

I've kept silent about Adam Jones winning the Gold Glove award this season, largely because the various defensive metrics indicate that he had a poor season in the field (I even highlighted it in my look ahead to the offseason). Joe Posnanski found an interesting tidbit, though:

The Doyen of Defense, John Dewan, wrote an interesting thing the other day. He
was trying to determine if Torii Hunter or Adam Jones deserved their Gold
Gloves. And while he hit several points, the one that stuck out for me was this:
Adam Jones led the league with four home run saving catches.

That explains it perfectly! Of course Adam Jones would score highly on the system used by Rawlings to determine the Gold Gloves: he looks like a great defender. He makes spectacular catches, runs gracefully, and has a great arm. Franklin Gutierrez, who turned in an all-time great defensive season for Seattle, was more deserving of the Gold Glove, but it's difficult to fault the voters when Jones made so many memorable plays. People who watched the Orioles play all season long picked up the same thing as the metrics: Jones, who frequently plays shallow, had difficulty on deep balls. Most evaluators, though, don't have the luxury of watching a full season, and it's these situations where objective metrics need to supplement subjective opinions.
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Hot Start for Adam Jones

One of the biggest stories of Opening Day (well, other than this) was the great game played by Adam Jones. The 23-year old started the season with a bang, recording three hits, including a triple, two walks, two RBI and two runs scored. I was just walking into the school building on Lombard Street, following ESPN's Gamecast on my BlackBerry, when he connected on his triple; the roar from the stadium could be heard loud and clear six blocks away. A few minutes later, a business school friend walked in and proclaimed 2009 to be "the year of Adam Jones." And Orioles fans aren't the only ones with high expecations. Joe Sheehan:

I really need to get that "My Guys" piece together before all of them become too
obvious. Adam Jones, who I love just slightly less than I do the salt-and-pepper
Kettle Chips, had three hits and two walks yesterday, and basically killed the
Yankees. He's also two years away from his first Gold Glove in center field.
What you saw yesterday from the Orioles, the quality ABs, the big hits, the good
defense... that's the reason to think they're on the way back. It's when the
back of the rotation shows up that you'll see the problems, but for one day, you
could see the return of baseball in Baltimore, and it looked great.

When Adam Jones started the season last year, he struggled. In April, he slashed .263/.311/.389 and May was worse (.226/.273/.312). But as spring turned to summer and Jones accumulated more at-bats, he improved mightily in June (.323/.349/.455) and July (.280/.330/.450) before an injury derailed his breakout. Watching games in the early going, it was obvious that Jones was overmatched; he swung at balls out of the zone and frequently struck out. However, when watching him play in July, it was like watching a different player. His walk and strikeout rates did not improve, but he was more selective at the plate and was able to recognize pitches to drive. The difference was palpable, and it showed in his numbers. While a sample size of one is obviously too small to draw any conclusions, 2009 could very well be the year of Adam Jones if he continues to improve at the rate he did last season.
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Injury Updates

MLB.com runs down injury updates for Chris Ray, Matt Albers and Adam Jones. All three are key players for 2009 and beyond, so I would expect the club to exercise the utmost caution with each. But great to hear that Ray, especially, is making such rapid progress.

Adam Jones

After a leadoff double from Vlad Guerrero, Adam Jones just tracked down a Torii Hunter fly ball to right center. It was a routine fly ball and not very deep, so there was virtually no risk of Guerrero, who looked far from fleet on that double, tagging up and heading to third. Jones, though, made the catch with textbook precision: he took an extra four steps or so to get behind the ball, made the catch coming through the play and delivered a one-hop throw to third. I like Adam Jones.

Adam Jones Triples

Jones just smacked a triple into the right center gap, hitting a breaking ball down and away on a 3-2 count. As Buck Martinez noted, "Everyday you see improvement." I agree. Jones seems to gain confidence each and every day, and he just seems to have fun playing the game. Did anyone else see him blow a bubble just before he dove into third base?