Dog Days

I'm on my way home tonight after (what looks to be) another disappointing Orioles loss, a frustrating start from David Hernandez (30+ pitches in the second inning) and more poor baserunning (this time from Cesar Izturis) underlining two disturbing trends. But let's make two things abundantly clear: 1) Izturis broke a fundamental baserunning rule and 2) Trembley had no choice but to ride Hernandez for as long as possible.

When you're in high school first learning baserunning on the large diamond, you are taught that if the ball is hit on the ground to your right you retreat to 2nd base; Izturis failed to heed that fundamental advice and paid the price. After 13 innings last night (and countless short outings from the rotation in recent weeks), the bullpen is gassed. If the O's were in a pennant race, I suspect that Trembley would have pulled Hernandez sooner; instead he tried to squeeze out a few extra outs and the Angels took advantage.

Unfortunately, with a rotation hampered by ineffectiveness (Guthrie, Berken), injury (Uehara, Bergesen), and usage constraints (Tillman, Matusz), Trembley really has no choice but to try and piece together games until rosters expand. This is likely to result in many more frustrating losses and irate messages from fans on BaltimoreSun.com blogs and message boards calling for the heads of Trembley and MacPhail and deeming the rebuilding a failure; don't listen to the nonsense. With the Huff trade today, Reimold and Pie are going to get a chance to play daily, the young starters are getting their feet wet and the plan is on schedule. If the O's are in this same position a year from now we can all hit the panic button. Until then, the club is a work in progress.
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T-Shirt Monday

Such a tough choice!!!

Greedy Stephen Strasburg

It's draft signing deadline, and you know what that means! Just like last year with Brian Matusz, lots of grumpy people complaining about Stephen Strasburg!! Fortunately, Joe Sheehan hits the nail on the head:

"The time from draft day to the signing deadline is the only time for perhaps a decade—and perhaps ever—that a player has any kind of negotiating leverage. Once he signs with a team, that team owns him until he accumulates six full seasons of major league service time. How can you possibly blame a person for wanting to
maximize his return on the only negotiation in which he’ll have any leverage for at least six years, possibly an entire decade, and in many cases ever? The idea, popular among players and ex-players who seem to have no grasp of the structure under which they play, that a draftee should just sign for whatever’s available and start his career because he’ll get paid if he performs, that's just laughable on its face...Stephen Strasburg could win Rookie of the Year and finish third in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2010, and make $400,000 in 2011. He could be even better in '11, racking up a ton of innings as the Nationals make a wild-card push, and make $400,000 in 2012. The next time Strasburg will be able to do more than just ask for money, entirely at the team’s mercy to give it to him, is the winter of 2012-13. The first time he’ll be able to negotiate with more than one team is the winter of 2015-16, unless the Nationals diddle with his time on the roster, in which case it’ll be 2016-17. That’s a long time from now. That’s a lot of innings from now, and he might never get there—he might be great, like Prior, out of the box, and never get paid because that’s how the system is set up."

Young Pitching

Orioles.com writer Spencer Fordin posted an excellent article yesterday discussing the Orioles plans for the starting rotation this September. The club (rightly) plans to protect its young pitchers and may move to a six man rotation for the season's final month. I don't know for sure whether a stretched out rotation or simply piggybacking potential starters (i.e., Matusz for five innings, followed by a long man) is a better idea, but I think that adding a man to the rotation is probably the way to go since it forces the young kids to pitch fewer innings than would be possible under a five man rotation; there will be fewer opportunities to abandon a solid outing to try and get a win in a game that is meaningless in the standings. Also, while we've rightly been critical of Dave Trembley's in-game strategizing, he makes some very sensible comments in this article:

"The thing that I've noticed is how much more difficult it is for the young guys, and how much harder they seem to have to work at this level," said Trembley. "The other teams will grind you. Toronto, the other day, they just waited Matusz out. I think you have to look at the pitch count and add 20-25 pitches to it. Physically, it's pretty taxing for them. Outs don't come easy and they really have to work to get them. In that sense, I think you have to be very wise about how long you leave them out there, how many innings they throw and how hard they work."

Trembley may not be the guy to manage this team long-term, but I do believe he's done a very good job putting the development needs of the organization first. I'm sure he knows the fan base is unhappy, and it can't be easy for him to keep Jason Berken's name on his starting pitching calendar, but he's done so. That is admirable.

What should the O's do with Guthrie?

That's the question Dan Connolly poses today over at the Toy Department, and one that deserves a fair bit of examination. First let's look at Guthrie's three seasons with the Orioles:


2007: 6.31 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, 4.41 FIP
2008: 5.66 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 4.53 FIP
2009: 5.23 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 1.81 HR/9, 5.62 FIP

Since 2007, Guthrie is striking ouy one fewer batter per nine innings, and walking nearly a half batter more. That's not a good trend. Also interesting is the way Guthrie's pitch types have changed:

2007: 67.8% fastballs, 22.4% sliders, 4.5% curve balls, 5.3% change-ups
2008: 64.1% fastballs, 18.1% sliders, 6.3% curve balls, 11.4% change-ups
2009: 60.9% fastballs, 18.7% sliders, 4.8% curve balls, 15.6% change-ups

That's a pretty striking shift away from fastballs and toward change-ups, especially when you consider that, traditionally, the fastball has been Guthrie's most effective pitch. Unfortunately, Guthrie's fastball has actually been below average this year. What happened? Let's go to Pitch F/X.

First, I took a look at Guthrie's outing from June 16, 2008, when he allowed just one run over 8.0 innings to the Astros. He clearly had his good stuff that day, allowing just 3 hits, walking one and striking out 8.

Average Fastball Velocity: 92.92 mph
Top Fastball Velocity: 95.7 mph
Horizontal Movement: -4.75 inches
Veritical Movement: 10.13 inches

Next, I took a peek at his numbers from last night:

Average Fastball Velocity: 91.78 mph
Top Fastball Velocity: 93.7 mph
Horizontal Movement: -4.87 inches
Vertical Movement: 8.06 inches

Right off the bat, the drop in velocity and, especially, vertical movement is striking. Has this been a problem for Guthrie all year? Let's go to May 30, when Guthrie struck out 10 Detroit Tigers over 6.0 innings.

Average Fastball Velocity: 93.94 mph
Top Fastball Velocity: 96.1 mph
Horizontal Movement: -4.88 inches
Vertical Movement: 8.92 inches

The velocity is better, but the vertical movement still doesn't quite match his start from last year. Without going through all the data, it seems that this could explain why Guthrie is striking out fewer and allowing more home runs. Is this fixable? Is Guthrie hurt? Has that viral infection helped sap his velocity? Given that Guthrie will be arbitration eligible for the first time this coming season, he's very likely to cost so little that it's worth finding out the answers to those questions. At worst, it seems like he's capable of repeating his efforts of this season, and while that's not exactly what the Orioles were hoping for coming into 2009, his ability to at least pitch a significant number of innings makes bringing him back a very good risk for 2010.
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First in the AL East!

In what really counts: the value of beer. (ht: Beyond the Boxscore)

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The Next Oriole Pitching Prospect

Since Tillman and Matusz have arrived, and Jake Arietta is not far behind, it's almost time to turn our attention to the next wave of pitching making its way through the Orioles farm system. And Brandon Erbe is making us take notice.
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The Matusz Outing

Erik Manning over at FanGraphs beat me to the punch this morning, breaking down Brian Matusz's PitchFX data before I had a chance to do so. However, I think he leaves out on key picture:

That shows a number of fastballs that Matusz missed with just off the plate inside to righthanders, and it also shows just how infrequently he threw his breaking balls. Matusz got good results last night, but that's definitely not as well as he can pitch.

Dave Cameron also broke down Chris Tillman.

Matusz Debut

It's the most anticipated Oriole pitching prospect debut since... last week. And, of course. that means I'll be live blogging. Check back right here once the game gets underway in about 20 minutes.

Top 1: Roberts starts the O's off right again tonight, this time doubling to right center field. For those who have been critical of Brian's effort at times this year, please note his hustle tonight. With a full count on Nolan Reimold, Brian broke for third. He nearly reached the bag, but Reimold lofted a fly ball to deep center. Brian retreated all the way to the second base bag, tagged up and advanced 90 feet. That's heads up baserunning and impressive hustle. Now, the Tigers are bringing the infield in with one out and Nick Markakis due up. This seems like a bad idea. Sure enough, Nick grounds one through the hole on the right side. The run would have scored either way, but it is possible that's the second out if the infield is at normal depth. Finally, Adam Jones grounds into a double play to end this inning. I have to say, I really like this lineup configuration. I hope that Reimold can continue to post a high enough OBP (.367 coming into tonight) to warrant batting at the top of the lineup. Coming up... Brian Matusz's debut!

Bottom 1: It's hard to believe that a year ago, Brian Matusz wasn't even a member of the Orioles organization. So far, so good: a soft pop to center for the first out of the inning.

Fastball: 92-93 mph
Change-up: 81 mph

Looking good... 1, 2, 3 inning!

Top 2: Here's a sentence I hope to write many times in the future: Matt Wieters gives Brian Matusz a 2-0 lead.

Bottom 2: Matusz is clearly comfortable pitching backwards (fastballs in breaking ball counts; breaking balls in fastball counts), and he has excellent command of his breaking balls. That's a recipe for success.

Good camera work from the MASN guys gives a nice view the circle change grip on the pitch Matusz used to strike out Miguel Cabrera. That's a pretty good hitter to get for your first career strike out.

A 3-1 change-up to Raburn with a runner on second. I like it. The batter is going to be looking fastball, and Matusz was hoping to roll him over.

The first curve ball from Matusz comes in at 77 mph, on a 1-1 pitch to Inge with runners on first and second. Buck Martinez just got done telling a story regarding the pre-game pitching meeting; Matusz indicated his curve was his weakest pitch. He sure had confidence in throwing that one.

As a former catcher, Buck should know what he's talking about in evaluating pitch selection. He's on his game tonight, doing an excellent job evaluating the game being called by Wieters.

And that's why the O's signed Cesar Izturis: an excellent diving snag and flip to Roberts ends the inning.

Bottom 3: More excellent defense from Izturis; solid defense behind a young pitching staff was exactly what the Orioles were hoping for.

And now Buck makes the same point. Like I said, he's on his game tonight.

After getting ahead 1-2 to Miguel Cabrera, Matusz loses him for his third walk of the evening. Needless to say, we don't like walks. Martinez makes the point that Matusz is becoming a bit too "change-up reliant" as Kranitz comes to the mound for a conference. Matusz has tried to establish his fastball, especially inside to righties, but he's just missed on numerous occassions. I don't know if he's trying to be too fine, or if he's getting squeezed, but a few more fastball strikes would greatly improve his outing.

Top 4: Jones showed bunt on the first pitch of the inning, but Inge (who was playing deep) apparently indicated that he would not be moving up to take the bunt away. Jones has done this a bit in recent weeks, and I like it. It didn't work this time, but if he can get the third baseman a few feet closer, he's more likely to sneak one by every once in a while. I used the tactic during my career to keep teams from employing a full-fledged shift and I know it helped my batting average. I like Adam Jones more with each passing day.

Bottom 4: A pair of doubles plates the first runs for the Tigers and pushes Matusz past the 80 pitch mark. Given his bouts of mini-wildness in the 2nd and 3rd, it looks like he'll be unable to throw more than 5.0 innings tonight. Orioles lead 2-1.

Top 5: Cesar Izturis is definitely the early leader for tonight's player of the game. His homer gives Matusz and the O's a 3-1 lead.

Bottom 5: MASN just showed the graphic that 18 years ago tonight Mike Mussina made his debut against the White Sox. Let's hope another Orioles top prospect is beginning a Hall of Fame career on August 4.

After a Miguel Cabrera double to put runners at second and third, Matusz bears down and strikes out Thames and Raburn to end the inning. Through 5.0, the O's lead 3-1.

Assuming we've seen the last of Matusz, here's my summary of his outing: great change-up, but he was missing his fastball command tonight. He also didn't throw many sliders or curveballs. I'm guessing that adrenaline had a big impact on both of these; he may have been overthrowing a touch. In all, while he didn't pitch great, he's given the O's a chance to win and I'm incredibly excited for the Brian Matusz era. He clearly has the stuff, command and mound presence to justify his high selection and advancement to the Majors after just four professional months. He's going to be a good one.

Top 6: Sure enough, that's it for Matusz. He's in line to become the fifth different Orioles pitcher to win his Major League debut this season. This would be the first Major League team since 1890 to achieve that feat. We're still waiting on Jake Arietta, too.

Markakis just crushed a homer to right center with Reimold on first base. Have I mentioned that I like this line-up configuration?

A two-run single from Izturis ups the lead to 7-1. Let's hope the bullpen can hold this lead. And, with that, the live blog is done for the evening.
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Matusz Time!

Peter Schmuck, via Jeff Zrebiec, is reporting that Brian Matusz appears to be the winner of the "vigorous debate" over who will take the rotation slot vacated when Brad Bergesen hit the disabled list. Can't say that I disagree with the decision: Matusz is pretty clearly the next best (ok, maybe the very best) pitcher in the organization. So long as they resist the temptation to keep pitching him every five days through the beginning of October (which Schmuck indicates in the comments would be the case), I'm excited! We're finally getting a look at all the young pitching that is hopefully going to lead the Orioles back to contention. It's another good day in Birdland.
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