One of this spring's most intriguing roster battles was over the 4th outfielder spot between Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. In reality, however, the decision was a no brainer: Pie, capable of playing center field and out of options, won the job over Reimold despite Nolan's much better offensive performance this spring. Reimold's fate was likely sealed the day Vlad inked his $8mm deal to wear the black and orange, cementing Luke Scott, Derek Lee, and Vlad into the LF, 1B, and DH slots for the Opening Day roster. This has been a point of contention for many observers that would prefer to see Reimold get his everyday at-bats in Baltimore instead of Norfolk. While I agree that signing Vlad was a poor decision by the organization, I'm not especially worried that Reimold will miss out on much valuable development time in 2011, for several reasons.
First, Nolan was pretty terrible last year. He hit .207/.282/.328 in 131 MLB plate appearances and .249/.364/.374 across 401 for the Tides. Of course, his poor performance may well have been due to lingering effects from his 2009 Achilles surgery; the solid plate discipline figures and lack of power are certainly consistent with that story. He has looked better in Spring Training this year, but nothing in his performance last year suggests he should have been handed a Major League job this spring.
Next, I fear that Nolan Reimold has become a bit overrated. In 2009, he hit .279/.365/.466 in 411 MLB plate appearances, good for a 118 wRC+ (wOBA+ adjusted for league and park). Among MLB leftfielders with at least 300 plate appearances, that was good for a tie for 18th. That's a nice line and guy you're happy to have in the lineup, but the bar for being an above average hitter in left or at first base is set really high. For 2011, ZiPS has Reimold projected for a 103 wRC+, well below average for the position. Even in 2009, Reimold was good for just 1.2 WAR in 104 games, or about 1.8 per 150 games. Given his minor league numbers, a repeat of his 2009 season is probably on the slightly optimistic side of likely. At 27, there's likely not much more development left; he is what he is.
Finally, as the 2010 Orioles showed, depth is a good thing for an organization to have. What are the chances that Luke Scott (128 games in 2009, 131 games in 2010), Vladimir Guerrero (100, 152), Adam Jones (119, 149) and Derek Lee (141, 148) all avoid the DL? I'm guessing they aren't very high. What if Luke Scott really struggles against lefties (.325 career OBP)? Do I think the Orioles should have signed Vlad? No. But given the very high level of uncertainty surrounding Reimold's abilities and health, bringing in another player for LF, 1B or DH was not at all unreasonable; unfortunately, that player should have been someone eminently able to be cut or sent to Norfolk if Reimold proved his health this spring.
Still, I think that if Reimold heads to Norfolk, proves he's healthy and has rekindled his power stroke, he won't be in AAA for long. Whether it's because of an injury in Baltimore, a desire to evaluate at the MLB level, or even if he just forces the club's hand, there are plenty of at-bats to go around. Days off, platoons, injuries; for left field, first base, and DH, there will be about 2,000 plate appearances this year, and they can be filled many different ways. I wouldn't be surprised if Nolan Reimold gets four or five hundred of them.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Arbitration and Free Agency
First up, two definitions:
When is a player eligible for salary arbitration?
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
When is a player eligible for free agency?
A player with six or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next season is eligible to become a free agent.
In the 2011 season, there are 182 days (March 31 through September 28). For every day a player is on the active roster or disabled list, he accrues one day of service time; in any given season, a player cannot earn more than one year of service time. One full year of service is defined as 172 days, however, a player who is optioned to the minors for less than 20 days receives credit for a full year of service. This year, Day 20 is April 19. Zach Britton could pitch in Baltimore on April 20 and the Orioles would gain one extra year of club control before he is granted free agency. Since the O's are likely to control Britton's innings pretty tightly this year (he threw 153.1 last season), he'd likely be the 5th starter. Buck probably won't send his 5th starter to the mound until April 10, and then again on the 16th. The number five slot comes due again on Thursday, April 21, at which point Britton could pitch in the big leagues, having missed a mere two starts, and the O's will gain one extra season of control. I'm hoping to do the math sometime this week (been really busy), but that seems like a really great trade to me.
When is a player eligible for salary arbitration?
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
When is a player eligible for free agency?
A player with six or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next season is eligible to become a free agent.
In the 2011 season, there are 182 days (March 31 through September 28). For every day a player is on the active roster or disabled list, he accrues one day of service time; in any given season, a player cannot earn more than one year of service time. One full year of service is defined as 172 days, however, a player who is optioned to the minors for less than 20 days receives credit for a full year of service. This year, Day 20 is April 19. Zach Britton could pitch in Baltimore on April 20 and the Orioles would gain one extra year of club control before he is granted free agency. Since the O's are likely to control Britton's innings pretty tightly this year (he threw 153.1 last season), he'd likely be the 5th starter. Buck probably won't send his 5th starter to the mound until April 10, and then again on the 16th. The number five slot comes due again on Thursday, April 21, at which point Britton could pitch in the big leagues, having missed a mere two starts, and the O's will gain one extra season of control. I'm hoping to do the math sometime this week (been really busy), but that seems like a really great trade to me.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Erik Bedard
I'm super late to this, but a few weeks ago, Heath (@DempseysArmy) and I got into a bit of a Twitter spat with Matt Gardner about Erik Bedard. Short story: Matt called Bedard lazy, we said he was hurt, but awesome. Matt responded with an allegation that Bedard told O's (I think) minor league pitching coach Scott McGregor that he would throw 100 pitches or 6 innings, whichever came first. I can't find any link to this, but that, of course doesn't mean it didn't happen (Matt obviously heard this from somewhere). Setting aside whether or not he actually said this, Bedard did not face this limitation in 2006 or 2007 (the two years he was mostly healthy and largely excellent). Those links above are to his game logs.
2006: 24 of 33 starts with more than 100 pitches, with five of 110 or more in June, July and August.
2007: 21 of 28 starts with more than 100 pitches (one with 120), including 105, 109, 112, 115, 114, 113, 104 and 116 in his final 8 starts of the season, after which he got hurt and didn't pitch again for the Orioles. In that last start, he allowed 5 walks, struck out just 3, and gave up 6 ER in only 6 innings. Was he hurt then?
Mr. Bedard certainly did not have a sterling reputation among the fans and the media; I have no idea what other players thought of him. Regardless of that reputation, though, when Bedard was healthy he took the ball and pitched. Perhaps so much for a 69-93 Orioles team in 2007 that he's thrown just 164 Major League inning since.
2006: 24 of 33 starts with more than 100 pitches, with five of 110 or more in June, July and August.
2007: 21 of 28 starts with more than 100 pitches (one with 120), including 105, 109, 112, 115, 114, 113, 104 and 116 in his final 8 starts of the season, after which he got hurt and didn't pitch again for the Orioles. In that last start, he allowed 5 walks, struck out just 3, and gave up 6 ER in only 6 innings. Was he hurt then?
Mr. Bedard certainly did not have a sterling reputation among the fans and the media; I have no idea what other players thought of him. Regardless of that reputation, though, when Bedard was healthy he took the ball and pitched. Perhaps so much for a 69-93 Orioles team in 2007 that he's thrown just 164 Major League inning since.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Five Reasons for Optimism
I'm back! Just one more class to go in my MBA career, and then maybe I'll have a bit more time to devote to the blog on a regular basis.
Matt Vensel today posted "Five reasons for Orioles optimism in 2011". Spring is obviously the season for optimism, but these are some pretty pessimistic optimistic indicators. Running through Matt's reasons:
5. A lineup without holes: This is largely true, in so much as they now have 9 position players absolutely worthy of regular at-bats in the Major Leagues. Unfortunately, it's also a lineup without much upside. Take a look through the Camden Crazies projections for this season; lots of guys with about 2.0 WAR. And now look at the ages of those regulars:
Matt Wieters, 25; Derrek Lee, 35; Brian Roberts, 33; Mark Reynolds, 27; JJ Hardy, 28; Luke Scott, 33; Adam Jones, 25; Nick Markakis, 27; Vlad Guerrero, 36.
Aside from Adam Jones (1800 career plate appearances) and Matt Wieters (900 plate appearances), no one else will play this season at an age where we can reasonably expect an improvement on their established level of performance. While I do think we'll see better numbers from Matt Wieters, Adam Jones has enough plate appearances now that it is difficult to expect big steps forward. Frankly, looking at that lineup is kind of depressing if you want the Orioles to build any sort of sustainable legitimate playoff contender.
4. Vlad the Impaler: Daniel covers this one ably. And as even Matt points out, he only hit 9 homers after the break last year.
3. The relative health of Roberts: I thought this was a post about optimism? Brian has already missed time in camp this spring with a strained neck, and the health of a balky backed 33-year old middle infielder seems much more like it belongs on a "worries" list.
2. The most interesting manager in the world: I like Buck, I really do. But if you're banking on the manager to take your club from 66 wins to the promised land, I hope your down payment on playoff tickets is refundable.
1. The young starting rotation: This is one with which I largely agree. I'm driving the Brian Matusz bandwagon, and I still harbor optimism that Chris Tillman can figure things out if only the organization will leave him alone in the Majors for a few months. I think Arrieta and Bergesen are both the type of arms that good organizations should turn out regularly, and I'm tremendously excited for Zach Britton. Guthrie isn't young, but he's still cheap and has proven to be a very valuable innings muncher.
In conclusion, this is a team that can reasonably be expected to make a run at .500, which, considering the miserableness of the past few years, is certainly a step forward but hardly anything to get excited about. The young pitching, however, really does have some upside. If there are legitimate reasons for optimism, they are on the mound.
Matt Vensel today posted "Five reasons for Orioles optimism in 2011". Spring is obviously the season for optimism, but these are some pretty pessimistic optimistic indicators. Running through Matt's reasons:
5. A lineup without holes: This is largely true, in so much as they now have 9 position players absolutely worthy of regular at-bats in the Major Leagues. Unfortunately, it's also a lineup without much upside. Take a look through the Camden Crazies projections for this season; lots of guys with about 2.0 WAR. And now look at the ages of those regulars:
Matt Wieters, 25; Derrek Lee, 35; Brian Roberts, 33; Mark Reynolds, 27; JJ Hardy, 28; Luke Scott, 33; Adam Jones, 25; Nick Markakis, 27; Vlad Guerrero, 36.
Aside from Adam Jones (1800 career plate appearances) and Matt Wieters (900 plate appearances), no one else will play this season at an age where we can reasonably expect an improvement on their established level of performance. While I do think we'll see better numbers from Matt Wieters, Adam Jones has enough plate appearances now that it is difficult to expect big steps forward. Frankly, looking at that lineup is kind of depressing if you want the Orioles to build any sort of sustainable legitimate playoff contender.
4. Vlad the Impaler: Daniel covers this one ably. And as even Matt points out, he only hit 9 homers after the break last year.
3. The relative health of Roberts: I thought this was a post about optimism? Brian has already missed time in camp this spring with a strained neck, and the health of a balky backed 33-year old middle infielder seems much more like it belongs on a "worries" list.
2. The most interesting manager in the world: I like Buck, I really do. But if you're banking on the manager to take your club from 66 wins to the promised land, I hope your down payment on playoff tickets is refundable.
1. The young starting rotation: This is one with which I largely agree. I'm driving the Brian Matusz bandwagon, and I still harbor optimism that Chris Tillman can figure things out if only the organization will leave him alone in the Majors for a few months. I think Arrieta and Bergesen are both the type of arms that good organizations should turn out regularly, and I'm tremendously excited for Zach Britton. Guthrie isn't young, but he's still cheap and has proven to be a very valuable innings muncher.
In conclusion, this is a team that can reasonably be expected to make a run at .500, which, considering the miserableness of the past few years, is certainly a step forward but hardly anything to get excited about. The young pitching, however, really does have some upside. If there are legitimate reasons for optimism, they are on the mound.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
2011 Ticket Prices
Despite setting a record low for attendance in 2010, the Orioles are raising ticket prices.
“We believe that the average increase of $3 per ticket is not going to negatively impact someone’s decision to buy, although we recognize no one ever wants to pay more for anything. We certainly understand that point,” Bader said.
Perhaps I should draw him a demand curve.
“We believe that the average increase of $3 per ticket is not going to negatively impact someone’s decision to buy, although we recognize no one ever wants to pay more for anything. We certainly understand that point,” Bader said.
Perhaps I should draw him a demand curve.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Kevin Gregg
Jeff Zrebiec at The Sun has news today that the Orioles have a 2-year, $8-$10 million offer out to former Blue Jays closer Kevin Gregg. Jeff is wondering whether Gregg would "unseat" Koji as the closer if he signs. Leaving aside whether or not the O's should be throwing millions of dollars at free agent relievers (they shouldn't be), having Gregg close games might not actually be a bad idea. He's a Proven Closer (TM), though not a great pitcher (career 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9), meaning that the Orioles don't really want him pitching in the highest leverage situations. Moving Koji--and his great strikeout numbers--into potentially higher leverage situations with runners on base in the 7th and 8th, could be a better use of bullpen assets. I don't know if this is how MacPhail is approaching the situation, but if that's how it works out, we probably shouldn't complain too much.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
2011 Roster
At the risk of getting overly excited and jumping the gun, it appears that the O's may be getting close to trading for J.J. Hardy. If true, the Orioles will have gone a long way toward filling out their 2011 roster. Let's take a quick look at how things are shaping up.
CA: Matt Wieters
1B: open
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Felix Pie
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott
B: Nolan Reimold
B: Craig Tatum
B: Jake Fox
B: open (utility IF - Robert Andino/Cesar Izturis?)
SP: Brian Matusz
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Brad Bergesen
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Jake Arrieta
CL: Koji Uehara (rumored)
LRP: Mike Gonzalez
RRP: Jim Johnson
RRP: Jason Berken
RRP: Alfredo Simon
LRP: open
?RP: open
That leaves four open spots (assuming the O's come to terms with Koji): 1B, utility IF, another lefty for the bullpen, and one more bullpen arm. There appear to be lots of irons in the fire for 1B (maybe Derek Lee?), and utility IF won't be tough to fill, but what to do with the bullpen? My guess is the O's sign one of the many available righties and also bring back Mark Hendrickson. They could also bring in another veteran starter to provide some depth, perhaps shifting Tillman or Arrieta back to Norfolk (again) or to the bullpen for the time being. Either way, the 2011 roster looks close to being set. Not a contender, but that looks to me like a big improvement over what was on the field for most of 2010.
CA: Matt Wieters
1B: open
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Mark Reynolds
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Felix Pie
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott
B: Nolan Reimold
B: Craig Tatum
B: Jake Fox
B: open (utility IF - Robert Andino/Cesar Izturis?)
SP: Brian Matusz
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Brad Bergesen
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Jake Arrieta
CL: Koji Uehara (rumored)
LRP: Mike Gonzalez
RRP: Jim Johnson
RRP: Jason Berken
RRP: Alfredo Simon
LRP: open
?RP: open
That leaves four open spots (assuming the O's come to terms with Koji): 1B, utility IF, another lefty for the bullpen, and one more bullpen arm. There appear to be lots of irons in the fire for 1B (maybe Derek Lee?), and utility IF won't be tough to fill, but what to do with the bullpen? My guess is the O's sign one of the many available righties and also bring back Mark Hendrickson. They could also bring in another veteran starter to provide some depth, perhaps shifting Tillman or Arrieta back to Norfolk (again) or to the bullpen for the time being. Either way, the 2011 roster looks close to being set. Not a contender, but that looks to me like a big improvement over what was on the field for most of 2010.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Beer at the Ballpark
It looks like Delaware North, the new concessions company for Oriole Park at Camden Yards, is taking a food tour of Baltimore today. The Orioles (@BirdlandInsider) and Delaware North officials (@BallparkRick) are tweeting about. If you're a beer fan, be sure to let them know we want good craft beer at the Yard in 2011.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Adam Dunn
Blogfight!
The Orioles need a first baseman. This is obvious. In 2010, the six players that donned a mitt combined for an amazingly low -1.1 fWAR. From Adam Dunn to Xavier Nady, there's a veritable alphabet soup that the Orioles could target to provide an easy three win (or more) upgrade over this year's club.
One option with which I am not enamored is Adam Dunn; certainly, I don't think the Orioles should offer 4-years and $15 million per season for him. There are a few reasons that I think Adam Dunn is a bad choice, some recounted ably by Dave Cameron:
1) He will cost the O's their second round draft pick.
2) There are lots of other, cheaper options for first base.
3) He's been worth $15 million or more exactly once in the past six seasons.
4) His "old player" skills and body type make me think he's susceptible to rapid decline.
5) His 2010 season showed a decline in walk rate and a rise in his strikeout rate, which combined for a very large increase in his K/BB ratio.
I think it goes without saying that Dunn's value lies entirely in his bat. At the very best, he's an average defender at first base (both Fangraphs and B-Ref have him as a -3 defender in 2010), and he's not going to provide any value on the bases (his last stolen base came in 2008). Historically, though, his bat has been a good one, driven by prodigious power and a keen batting eye.
From 2001 to 2009 he posted an aggregate line of .249/.383/.520 built on a .292 BABIP, 26.5% strikeout rate and 16.9% walk rate (1.57 K/BB ratio). His 2010 line, .260/.356/.536, doesn't look out of line at all with his career performance, but his ratios diverged significantly. His BABIP rose to .329, he struck out 30.7% of the time (previous high: 28.6% in 2004), and he walked in just 11.9% of his plate appearances (previous non-rookie half-season low: 15.8% in 2003). He had never before posted a K/BB ratio above 2.0. This season it spiked to 2.58. As Keith Law notes, he also saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career in 2010. His batting eye clearly regressed in 2010; how much longer will the power last? Yes, Dunn has been durable and healthy, but that question makes me extremely hesitant to offer anything longer than a three year deal.
All told Dunn was worth about 30 batting runs last season, right in line with his average from the past six seasons. Subtract 10 for a positional adjustment, add 20 for replacement level, and assume 0 for his defensive abilities, and Dunn is a 4.0 win player. At $4m per win, that suggests he could get about $16m for a one year contract in 2011. I suspect that most teams, though, aren't going to value him as an average defender (knock off $4.0m), and a long-term deal may well come with a slight discount (knock off another $1m), right in line with the Fangraphs crowdsource (which has Dunn priced at 3/$12.5m) and Dave Cameron (who guesstimates 3/$11m).
I can accept that an offer of $15m per season may be what it takes to convince Dunn to come to the American League, but, for me, 4/$15m is just too rich a deal for a 31-year old bat-only player coming off a season where he showed some early signs of aging in the weaker league. This Orioles club isn't yet ready to contend, and if it is, it will be because the pitching takes a huge leap forward. If that happens, by all means, trade for someone like Adam Dunn. Right now, though, the money would be better spent targeting a cheaper option at first base and spending the balance on some more hitting prospects, including the one the O's could take in the 2nd round of a very deep 2011 draft class. First base shouldn't require an imperfect, expensive fix.
The Orioles need a first baseman. This is obvious. In 2010, the six players that donned a mitt combined for an amazingly low -1.1 fWAR. From Adam Dunn to Xavier Nady, there's a veritable alphabet soup that the Orioles could target to provide an easy three win (or more) upgrade over this year's club.
One option with which I am not enamored is Adam Dunn; certainly, I don't think the Orioles should offer 4-years and $15 million per season for him. There are a few reasons that I think Adam Dunn is a bad choice, some recounted ably by Dave Cameron:
1) He will cost the O's their second round draft pick.
2) There are lots of other, cheaper options for first base.
3) He's been worth $15 million or more exactly once in the past six seasons.
4) His "old player" skills and body type make me think he's susceptible to rapid decline.
5) His 2010 season showed a decline in walk rate and a rise in his strikeout rate, which combined for a very large increase in his K/BB ratio.
I think it goes without saying that Dunn's value lies entirely in his bat. At the very best, he's an average defender at first base (both Fangraphs and B-Ref have him as a -3 defender in 2010), and he's not going to provide any value on the bases (his last stolen base came in 2008). Historically, though, his bat has been a good one, driven by prodigious power and a keen batting eye.
From 2001 to 2009 he posted an aggregate line of .249/.383/.520 built on a .292 BABIP, 26.5% strikeout rate and 16.9% walk rate (1.57 K/BB ratio). His 2010 line, .260/.356/.536, doesn't look out of line at all with his career performance, but his ratios diverged significantly. His BABIP rose to .329, he struck out 30.7% of the time (previous high: 28.6% in 2004), and he walked in just 11.9% of his plate appearances (previous non-rookie half-season low: 15.8% in 2003). He had never before posted a K/BB ratio above 2.0. This season it spiked to 2.58. As Keith Law notes, he also saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance of his career in 2010. His batting eye clearly regressed in 2010; how much longer will the power last? Yes, Dunn has been durable and healthy, but that question makes me extremely hesitant to offer anything longer than a three year deal.
All told Dunn was worth about 30 batting runs last season, right in line with his average from the past six seasons. Subtract 10 for a positional adjustment, add 20 for replacement level, and assume 0 for his defensive abilities, and Dunn is a 4.0 win player. At $4m per win, that suggests he could get about $16m for a one year contract in 2011. I suspect that most teams, though, aren't going to value him as an average defender (knock off $4.0m), and a long-term deal may well come with a slight discount (knock off another $1m), right in line with the Fangraphs crowdsource (which has Dunn priced at 3/$12.5m) and Dave Cameron (who guesstimates 3/$11m).
I can accept that an offer of $15m per season may be what it takes to convince Dunn to come to the American League, but, for me, 4/$15m is just too rich a deal for a 31-year old bat-only player coming off a season where he showed some early signs of aging in the weaker league. This Orioles club isn't yet ready to contend, and if it is, it will be because the pitching takes a huge leap forward. If that happens, by all means, trade for someone like Adam Dunn. Right now, though, the money would be better spent targeting a cheaper option at first base and spending the balance on some more hitting prospects, including the one the O's could take in the 2nd round of a very deep 2011 draft class. First base shouldn't require an imperfect, expensive fix.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Top 10 Prospects
Baseball America is first out of the gate with their Top 10 O's Prospects list. Check it out.
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